Brexit - the next steps

[ProfessorDavey]

The leavers will probably rue the day they voted for Brexit, imo.

But they'll never admit they made a mistake - they simply blame the EU for all our woes having left, just as they blamed the EU for all our woes while we were a member. Sometimes you have to take some responsibility for your own failures rather than constantly blaming someone else.

[ProfessorDavey]

I will join any agency necessary to prevent having referendum after referendum until you remoaners get your way, because that would be removing the decision from those that in reality have the best interests of our country in mind and took this democratic opportunity to vote leave. (We're not likely to agree).

Regards ippy

How on earth would a democratic decision to reject a specific brexit deal (which note wouldn't be a second referendum as the first one wasn't about a specific deal) be somehow undemocratic. Here is a clue - we have a general election every 5 years for a reason - we don't say 'hay we voted Tory in 2015 so that's it, we must respect the will of the people, so no more general elections'.

If the specific Brexit deal negotiated is great why would you worry about putting it to a democratic vote - if it is a pig's ear why on earth do you think we should accept it without a direct democratic mandate - given that there was no deal on the table in the 2016 referendum.

[Shaker]

The leavers will probably rue the day they voted for Brexit, imo.

I suppose the "imo" was tagged on to avoid having to give any evidence for this 'probably'?

[ProfessorDavey]

I will join any agency necessary to prevent having referendum after referendum ...

I'm not talking about referendum after referendum.

In 2016 we had no idea what a deal would actually look like so we were voting on the theory of brexit rather than its practice. Once there is an actual deal in place that deal should be put to a vote in a referendum for us to accept (and leave the EU) or reject (and remain in the EU). I'd be more than happy for that referendum to be binding, provided it was based on an actual deal. And also more than happy to accept that the result should settle the matter for a generation.

Having a two step process for decision making of this type - which is of such magnitude that it will define our prosperity seems entirely sensible.

[Harrowby Hall]

I will join any agency necessary to prevent having referendum after referendum until you remoaners get your way,

That's right, Ippy. You tell 'em.  And while you're at it, let's do away with elections, too ...



The more I see of this grand, ill-conceived, botched, revolutionary plan unravelling, the more it seems to me that a further referendum is inevitable - to get the politicians out of the mess they have got themselves into.

But then, that's what happens with referendums organised for party management purposes. Wasn't it Margaret Thatcher who said something like "referendums are for despots"?

[ProfessorDavey]

That's right, Ippy. You tell 'em.  And while you're at it, let's do away with elections, too ...



The more I see of this grand, ill-conceived, botched, revolutionary plan unravelling, the more it seems to me that a further referendum is inevitable - to get the politicians out of the mess they have got themselves into.

But then, that's what happens with referendums organised for party management purposes. Wasn't it Margaret Thatcher who said something like "referendums are for despots"?

We kind of have an unwritten rule in our democracy.

That a mandate for change (e.g. in a general election manifesto) needs to be enacted in 5 years of that vote, or it in effect is 'timed-out', i.e. needing a fresh mandate.

So a government cannot use a previous general election mandate on an issue, but needs a new mandate at the next general election if they haven't implemented it. Given that we are unlikely to see the final brat deal implemented before 2021, at the earliest, a mandate (not that there is one on an actual deal) wouldn't really be safe.

And just on the basis of demographic shift - old people dying between 2016 and 2021, and young one attaining voting age, it is unlikely that there will remain a majority for leave even if no-one actually changes their mind.

[Udayana]

I can't see that a referendum on the final deal will give us a different result. People don't understand or care about the long term effects on the country.

As the government is frail, the chances are that there will be an election before the final agreement. Then we might elect a government with a mandate to take the soft approach - continued membership of the single market and customs union, but from outside the EU.

The whole episode will be put down as a failure of democracy.

[ProfessorDavey]

I can't see that a referendum on the final deal will give us a different result.

That might be true, but it would give democratic legitimacy for the actual deal which the 2016 referendum patently doesn't.

[ippy]

That would be your country, ippy, not mine: my country is being dragged out of the EU by your country.

I understand that and think the remainers have got it wrong, but that's your choice of course, but when the referendum was taken as a whole the U K voted out, for which I was and am still delighted no matter how much abuse I get.

It's looking to me as though it depends on whatever side any individual chooses, it's not a democratic vote if you're on the loosing side.

This referendum has certainly divided the U K.

Incidentally I voted against joining the EEC when Wilson was in power and have never been in favour of joining and I certainly didn't want anything to do with closer and closer union with this now titled E U.

Regards ippy

[ProfessorDavey]

... but when the referendum was taken as a whole the U K voted out, for which I was and am still delighted

I'm struggling to see how you can be delighted when neither you nor I know what Brexit will look like. It makes no sense - so would you still be delighted if brexit resulted in a hard border with Ireland, resulting in destabilisation of the fragile peace process, resulted in major down-turn in the UK economy resulting in reduced household incomes and poorer public services, delighted if brexit resulted in the UK turning into a hard capitalist state more like the USA. All these are perfectly plausible outcomes of brexit - surely you should reserve your delight until you actually know what brexit means in reality.

no matter how much abuse I get.

You haven't had any abuse from me - and I think it cuts both ways.

[ippy]

I'm struggling to see how you can be delighted when neither you nor I know what Brexit will look like. It makes no sense - so would you still be delighted if brexit resulted in a hard border with Ireland, resulting in destabilisation of the fragile peace process, resulted in major down-turn in the UK economy resulting in reduced household incomes and poorer public services, delighted if brexit resulted in the UK turning into a hard capitalist state more like the USA. All these are perfectly plausible outcomes of brexit - surely you should reserve your delight until you actually know what brexit means in reality.
You haven't had any abuse from me - and I think it cuts both ways.

I'm delighted for reasons you'll not agree with no matter, we're poles apart, no you in person haven't abused me but there is a hint given by remainers that leavers are bunch of knuckle scrapers, even if that is how lots of remainers see us, well we still won the vote.

Regards ippy

[Harrowby Hall]

Incidentally I voted against joining the EEC when Wilson was in power

No you did not. There was no such referendum to join the Common Market.

The UK entered the Common Market as the result of a General Election in which membership was one of the issues. The referendum you vaguely recall was called by Harold Wilson for exactly the same party management reason as that by Cameron: to shut up protesters (in Wilson's case - Anthony Wedgewood Benn).

[ProfessorDavey]

I'm delighted for reasons you'll not agree with no matter, we're poles apart

So you are delighted regardless of the actual outcome of brexit, good, bad or indifferent - that sounds like the sort of evangelical attitude we normally associate with some of the fundamentalist theists on this forum. I thought better of you.

no you in person haven't abused me

Thank you for confirming this.

but there is a hint given by remainers that leavers are bunch of knuckle scrapers

Blimey you must be very thin skinned - getting touchy about perhaps being accused of being a bit thick. You are aware, I hope, that remainers are routinely being accused of treason and worse - that currently remain MPs are receiving death threats, and of course one prominent remain MP was murdered by someone using those justifications.

[Gordon]

Interesting comments from Tusk - given the Tories deal with the DUP this seems to be turning into a rock versus a hard place for our hapless government.

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42202830

[ProfessorDavey]

Interesting comments from Tusk - given the Tories deal with the DUP this seems to be turning into a rock versus a hard place for our hapless government.

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-42202830

This was always going to be a huge problem unless the UK decided to remain in the customs union.

If you aren't in the customs union you either need a hard border between NI and the republic, or between NI and the rest of the UK. And neither is (quite reasonably) acceptable to the DUP. I think, however, they were naive in agreeing to prop up the Tories, presumably on a promise of completely frictionless borders with both the republic and the rest of the UK - something that they simply cannot deliver, unless they give up on their plan to leave the customs union.

[ippy]

So you are delighted regardless of the actual outcome of brexit, good, bad or indifferent - that sounds like the sort of evangelical attitude we normally associate with some of the fundamentalist theists on this forum. I thought better of you.
Thank you for confirming this.
Blimey you must be very thin skinned - getting touchy about perhaps being accused of being a bit thick. You are aware, I hope, that remainers are routinely being accused of treason and worse - that currently remain MPs are receiving death threats, and of course one prominent remain MP was murdered by someone using those justifications.

I'm delighted with the result of the referendum for as I see them as very good reasons therfore not without any reason.

Where you refer to being evangelical etc, I could say the same about remainers and find myself disapointed when I hear the things they say and who they are.

We wont agree no matter how many times we were to exchange our views.

It can't be right to make death threats, the hint of knuckle scraping leavers by remainers, please hint away.

The first referendum was for the European Economic Community and I also find it dissapointing with some people I usually agree with on most other ideas when I see or hear them complaining about something I have always wanted from right back in the EEC vote days.

Just the same as you I wont be changing my stance because my reasons for leaving , I think, are overwhelming just as you think your reasons for staying are, we both see each other as wrong on this subject and it aint going to alter, is it?

Wouldn't it be strange if we were to agree on everything?

Regards ippy

[ProfessorDavey]

I'm delighted with the result of the referendum for as I see them as very good reasons therfore not without any reason.

Would you like to explain that is a manner that might mean something to anyone.

[ProfessorDavey]

It can't be right to make death threats, the hint of knuckle scraping leavers by remainers, please hint away.

And it can't be right to equate death threats with comments implying that someone is a bit dim. Still less when death threats actually turn into murder, which of course is what happened to Jo Cox.

[ProfessorDavey]

Just the same as you I wont be changing my stance because my reasons for leaving , I think, are overwhelming just as you think your reasons for staying are, we both see each other as wrong on this subject and it aint going to alter, is it?

No - there is a difference.

I know what remain looks like, so I know what it is that I am dismayed about losing.

You on the other hand have no idea what brexit looks like, yet you claim to be delighted about something totally unknown and a term which covers such a spectrum that some versions of brexit are closer to remain than they are to the more extreme versions of brexit.

[ProfessorDavey]

Where you refer to being evangelical etc, I could say the same about remainers and find myself disapointed when I hear the things they say and who they are.

I disagree as for remainers we know what membership of the EU, warts and all, looks like. For the brexiters there is a kind of unshakable faith in an unknown future that somehow must be OK because it isn't the EU, regardless of the fact that you have no idea whatsoever what that future will be like.

[Gordon]

The situation regarding the border with Ireland looks very problematic and that there would be an issue here and that this wasn't explored during the referendum campaign is exactly why it can be said that those who voted Brexit didn't know what they were voting for, which makes their continued defence of Brexit appear myopically stupid.

Hopefully the negotiations and this hapless government will both unravel fast enough for this madness to be stopped by some form of democratic means. The DUP might, ironically, be useful in this regard albeit if they do pull the plug on May it will be for reasons that are just as blinkered as Brexit.

It is an utter mess that somebody needs to tidy up.

[ProfessorDavey]

The situation regarding the border with Ireland looks very problematic and that there would be an issue here and that this wasn't explored during the referendum campaign is exactly why it can be said that those who voted Brexit didn't know what they were voting for, which makes their continued defence of Brexit appear myopically stupid.

Hopefully the negotiations and this hapless government will both unravel fast enough for this madness to be stopped by some form of democratic means. The DUP might, ironically, be useful in this regard albeit if they do pull the plug on May it will be for reasons that are just as blinkered as Brexit.

It is an utter mess that somebody needs to tidy up.

Indeed - entirely predictable, and actually entirely predicted by all sorts of people. The brexiteers seem to be suggesting some kind of completely unknown and untested 'technological solution' as if the border between the republic and NI was a bit like the London congestion zone.

It beggars belief when we have had nigh on 20 years of effective peace in a region which has been largely at war for hundreds of years.

[Nearly Sane]

As the Prof notes the Irish border questioj was entirely predicted. That said I don't think ir wouod have beyond a solution if it was properly understood and prepared for. That David Davis didn't seem to realise there was a land border, and the continual snipinh tgat this is just Ireland causing problems, or that they should be brought back into the UK is blinkered and ignorant.

[ProfessorDavey]

As the Prof notes the Irish border questioj was entirely predicted. That said I don't think ir wouod have beyond a solution if it was properly understood and prepared for. That David Davis didn't seem to realise there was a land border, and the continual snipinh tgat this is just Ireland causing problems, or that they should be brought back into the UK is blinkered and ignorant.

I think actually it is a completely intractable problem unless the UK is in the customs union (or some other mechanism that is in effect identical to the customs union). The only other options are:

1. A hard border between NI and the Republic
2. A hard border between NI and the rest of the UK
3. A hard border between the Republic and the rest of the EU

None are acceptable. And by 'hard border' I mean anything that prevents the completely free (DUP term frictionless) movement of people, goods and services across the border as is the case now.

[ippy]

Would you like to explain that is a manner that might mean something to anyone.

I would think the contents of my past posts have given you my answer on this subject, we wont agree no matter whatever one or the other were to say, I'm sorry if you don't like it but winning the referendum is sufficient for me, I look forward to the day.

Regards ippy