Brexit - the next steps

[jeremyp]

Yes but they lost and how they want to proceed on Brexit is not all the same.

You didn't ask how they want to proceed on Brexit, you tried to deny they had a coherent vision. They did have a coherent vision: be a member of the European community of nations.  Following the vote, reaction has been varied, but I think you'll find that most still wish they hadn't lost.

Some of the press has not been great, having a go at them with a suggestion that all Brexiteers are the same is abusive.

I don't suggest that all Brexiteers are the same, but many of them do follow the lead of the press.

Opinion polls count for little, elections and referendums do.

The referendum wasn't really much more than a government organised opinion poll. In any case, until we have another referendum, opinion polls are the only tool we have to gauge public opinion. And there's no reason to believe the current ones are wrong within the normal margin of error.

[jeremyp]

Take it up with him.

I want your opinion on David Davies and his impact assessments that existed and then didn't and then did but were stolen off Wikipedia. Surely you must have one. You Brexiteers seem so unwilling to confront the consequences of your vote, I'm beginning to think that you are all in denial.

[jakswan]

You didn't ask how they want to proceed on Brexit, you tried to deny they had a coherent vision. They did have a coherent vision: be a member of the European community of nations.  Following the vote, reaction has been varied, but I think you'll find that most still wish they hadn't lost.

No you suggested that Brexiteers didn't have a clear vision for Britain and I stated that neither have the remain side now since they all want different things to happen next.

I don't suggest that all Brexiteers are the same, but many of them do follow the lead of the press.

Some may, I'd tone down the prejudice if I were you.

The referendum wasn't really much more than a government organised opinion poll. In any case, until we have another referendum, opinion polls are the only tool we have to gauge public opinion. And there's no reason to believe the current ones are wrong within the normal margin of error.

And you claim I'm in denial, this is your opinion the opinion that matters is the politicians in Parliament.

Almost all major political parties supported the referendum and decided to give the electorate the decision to stay or leave. As I recall before the Referendum Bill passed before Parliament politicians were vowing to 'respect the result', you can't say that then later claim 'wasn't really much more than a government organised opinion poll'.

Also what do you want to happen next? I'm assuming Brexit not to happen, given politicians will not feel they have a mandate to overturn this result there has to be another referendum, you are undermining your position.

[jakswan]

I want your opinion on David Davies and his impact assessments that existed and then didn't and then did but were stolen off Wikipedia. Surely you must have one. You Brexiteers seem so unwilling to confront the consequences of your vote, I'm beginning to think that you are all in denial.

He was careless with his language bordering on dishonest, there was sectoral analysis but never impact assessments. Not sure what impact assessments would look like since you can't know the final deal. 

[floo]

That unpleasant piece of work, 'Farage', is upset because he isn't featured in the New Year's honours list for his services to Brexit. I remember the lies he told about the money we paid for our membership to the EU going to support the NHS!

[Nearly Sane]

That wasn't one of Nigel's.

[floo]

That wasn't one of Nigel's.

Yes it was.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-nigel-farage-nhs-350-million-pounds-live-health-service-u-turn-a7102831.html

[SusanDoris]

That unpleasant piece of work, 'Farage', is upset because he isn't featured in the New Year's honours list for his services to Brexit. I remember the lies he told about the money we paid for our membership to the EU going to support the NHS!

He's upset, is he?!! I hadn't heard that, but serves him right!

[jeremyp]

No you suggested that Brexiteers didn't have a clear vision for Britain and I stated that neither have the remain side now since they all want different things to happen next.

It's pretty obvious Brexiteers so not have a coherent vision for Britain. The Remain side does. But the current situation with the Remain side is irrelevant because Brexit is allegedly happening.

Some may, I'd tone down the prejudice if I were you.

If you can show I was factually wrong, please do. However, it'snot prejudice to state that the Brexiteers are all over the place. It's obvious that they are.

And you claim I'm in denial, this is your opinion the opinion that matters is the politicians in Parliament.

It appears you are in denial because your response to my claim that Brexiteers don't have a coherent vision is a Tu Quoque (i.e. Remainers don't have a coherent vision). You are clinging to Brexit even though many of your fellow Brexiteers are pulling in different directions.

Almost all major political parties supported the referendum and decided to give the electorate the decision to stay or leave. As I recall before the Referendum Bill passed before Parliament politicians were vowing to 'respect the result', you can't say that then later claim 'wasn't really much more than a government organised opinion poll'.

I didn't say I would respect the result before the referendum, so there's nothing hypocritical about me saying it was little more than a government organised opinion poll. The fact is that it was not legally binding and therefore my comment is true whether or not the major parties are respecting it.

Also what do you want to happen next? I'm assuming Brexit not to happen, given politicians will not feel they have a mandate to overturn this result there has to be another referendum, you are undermining your position.

I want Brexit to stop. I think the mandate to continue it is highly dubious and, in any case, it's a bad idea regardless of what the majority of British people who could be bothered to vote thought 18 months ago.

[jeremyp]

He was careless with his language bordering on dishonest, there was sectoral analysis but never impact assessments.

So you are admitting he lied.

Not sure what impact assessments would look like since you can't know the final deal.

So we entered the negotiations without knowing what we were aiming at or what the outcome would be with whatever result we will get.

Holy Fuck. That sounds like criminal negligence to me.

[jakswan]

It's pretty obvious Brexiteers so not have a coherent vision for Britain. The Remain side does. But the current situation with the Remain side is irrelevant because Brexit is allegedly happening.

Just because Remain lost doesn't mean they do not have a voice.

If you can show I was factually wrong, please do. However, it'snot prejudice to state that the Brexiteers are all over the place. It's obvious that they are.

Of course Brexiteers are all over the place its crazy to expect them to be any other way, they are not a political party they just happen to agree on one issue.

If Corbyn is Remain I doubt his vision for Britain is that of neo-liberal EU, whereas the moderates in Labour also Remain will be.

I'm not being critical of Remain because that just describes a group of people segmented by how they voted on one issue.

It appears you are in denial because your response to my claim that Brexiteers don't have a coherent vision is a Tu Quoque (i.e. Remainers don't have a coherent vision). You are clinging to Brexit even though many of your fellow Brexiteers are pulling in different directions.

I'm not clinging to anything, I did vote for Brexit and I was 7/10 on the issue, I think I'd support another vote on the deal and my mind could be changed.

I didn't say I would respect the result before the referendum, so there's nothing hypocritical about me saying it was little more than a government organised opinion poll. The fact is that it was not legally binding and therefore my comment is true whether or not the major parties are respecting it.

I don't think you are reading what I'm writing. Your opinion is the result can be ignored, politicians, the ones with the power do not agree, in order to get the outcome you seek you have to change their minds.

I want Brexit to stop. I think the mandate to continue it is highly dubious and, in any case, it's a bad idea regardless of what the majority of British people who could be bothered to vote thought 18 months ago.

Ok.

[jakswan]

So you are admitting he lied.

If you like I've little interest in defending the Tories.

So we entered the negotiations without knowing what we were aiming at or what the outcome would be with whatever result we will get.

I think the sectoral analysis would inform what we were aiming at.

Holy Fuck. That sounds like criminal negligence to me.

Ok.

[ProfessorDavey]

I think the sectoral analysis would inform what we were aiming at.

Wouldn't it have been sensible to have that in place before triggering article 50 - indeed more sensible still to have it in place before the referendum so people would actually have a clue what they were voting for if they voted Leave.

[jakswan]

Wouldn't it have been sensible to have that in place before triggering article 50 - indeed more sensible still to have it in place before the referendum so people would actually have a clue what they were voting for if they voted Leave.

Like this:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf

[ProfessorDavey]

Like this:-
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf

Nope - this document doesn't provide the type of information needed to determine which type of brexit would be best (or rather least worst) as it is clear that remaining is the best option.

How it is possible to decide on a negotiating strategy, which presumably requires an desired end point for the UK, without having actually assess the impact of the myriad possible brexit options beggars belief.

[ProfessorDavey]

Nope - this document doesn't provide the type of information needed to determine which type of brexit would be best (or rather least worst) as it is clear that remaining is the best option.

How it is possible to decide on a negotiating strategy, which presumably requires an desired end point for the UK, without having actually assess the impact of the myriad possible brexit options beggars belief.

That said I think we remain in the dark as to whether they exist or not - Davis seems to constantly be flipped-flopping on their existence. What we do know is that they haven't been made available to MPs as required by Parliament - so we can be sure that if they do exist they do not make comfortable reading for the Brexiteers.

[jeremyp]

That said I think we remain in the dark as to whether they exist or not - Davis seems to constantly be flipped-flopping on their existence. What we do know is that they haven't been made available to MPs as required by Parliament - so we can be sure that if they do exist they do not make comfortable reading for the Brexiteers.

I think the analyses were done but were very negative with respect to whatever his Brexit strategy is. He did everything he could to stop people from seeing them but when he failed, he did the equivalent of "dog ate my homework" and then rapidly put together some crap to try to appease the enemy.

The logical part of my brain tells me that is a wild conspiracy theory, but I can't think of an  alternative that doesn't involve him being a snivelling pathetic idiot using "dog ate my homework" style excuses.

[ProfessorDavey]

Interesting survey on views of members of political parties has just been published - full details here:

http://www.qmul.ac.uk/media/qmul/media/publications/Grassroots,-Britain's-Party-Members.pdf

% who agree or strongly agree with the following statements:

1. Britain should stay in the single market
Con 25%
Lab 87%
LD 96%
SNP 95%

2. Britain should stay in the customs union
Con 27%
Lab 85%
LD 95%
SNP 91%

3. There should be a second referendum on the Brexit deal
Con 14%
Lab 78%
LD 91%
SNP 87%

Given the overwhelming support for remaining in the Single Market/Customs union and for a referendum on the final deal amongst Labour members, how long can the leadership retain a policy so out of line with its members views (and of course the views of the broader group of Labour voters, and narrower, but critical group of Labour MPs).

[jakswan]

Interesting survey on views of members of political parties has just been published - full details here:

http://www.qmul.ac.uk/media/qmul/media/publications/Grassroots,-Britain's-Party-Members.pdf

% who agree or strongly agree with the following statements:

1. Britain should stay in the single market
Con 25%
Lab 87%
LD 96%
SNP 95%

2. Britain should stay in the customs union
Con 27%
Lab 85%
LD 95%
SNP 91%

3. There should be a second referendum on the Brexit deal
Con 14%
Lab 78%
LD 91%
SNP 87%

Given the overwhelming support for remaining in the Single Market/Customs union and for a referendum on the final deal amongst Labour members, how long can the leadership retain a policy so out of line with its members views (and of course the views of the broader group of Labour voters, and narrower, but critical group of Labour MPs).

I'm amazed given the strength of feeling on Brexit that the centrists in Labour seem to be putting party before country, it will be too late soon.

[ProfessorDavey]

I'm amazed given the strength of feeling on Brexit that the centrists in Labour seem to be putting party before country, it will be too late soon.

I'm not sure what you mean by 'putting party before country' - surely if it was just pandering to the party, then Labour would commit to single market membership and a referendum on the final deal, as that is the overwhelming view of the 'party' in all its forms (voters, members, MPs).

Why they aren't is, frankly, beyond me.

[jakswan]

I'm not sure what you mean by 'putting party before country' - surely if it was just pandering to the party, then Labour would commit to single market membership and a referendum on the final deal, as that is the overwhelming view of the 'party' in all its forms (voters, members, MPs).

Why they aren't is, frankly, beyond me.

Cos Jezza & JM are pro-Brexit?

A socialist state won't be possible in the EU.

[floo]

As I have said before, removing the UK from the EU will be one of its biggest mistakes EVER, imo.

[ProfessorDavey]

Cos Jezza & JM are pro-Brexit?

A socialist state won't be possible in the EU.

But they are also completely wedded to the notion that the leadership is merely a mouthpiece for the membership - that's how the left wing of the Labour party thinks - that the membership is basically in charge of the party.

[jakswan]

But they are also completely wedded to the notion that the leadership is merely a mouthpiece for the membership - that's how the left wing of the Labour party thinks - that the membership is basically in charge of the party.

I don't think so, what else explains their lack of substantial movement on this issue?

Also forgot to explain my 'party before country' line...

The centrists in Labour feel very strongly that Brexit is a bad idea, yet Labour position as set out by John Mcdonell is Pro-Brexit

e.g.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-john-mcdonell-votes-tories-labour-customs-unions-amendment-protection-a8066411.html

If the centrists revolted and demanded a change in policy then its open warfare in Labour again, it might tear the party apart, so they don't revolt even though they think Brexit is a disaster for UK, ala party before country.

[ProfessorDavey]

If the centrists revolted and demanded a change in policy then its open warfare in Labour again, it might tear the party apart, so they don't revolt even though they think Brexit is a disaster for UK, ala party before country.

Why would it result in open warfare - it would be quite the reverse as a change in policy would align policy with the views of the vast, vast majority of the party both in Westminster and amongst rank and file members. A change in policy would create a party much more comfortable with itself on policy rather than the current extremely uneasy situation where the vast majority don't agree with the policy (and it is pretty clear too when you hear even those at the top that they aren't really comfortable with the situation).