Brexit - the next steps

[jakswan]

Why didn't they ignore the stupid referendum then? At the time it happened, a majority of MPs were against leaving the EU. It's probably still true now, but they're all too cowardly to challenge the idea of Brexit in spite of the fact that this is, as you rightly point out, a parliamentary democracy and we shouldn't be defining policy based on the basis of what people were happy with on one day in June 2016.

So you would advocate after Parliament decided to give the people a vote get the result they don't want and just ignore it?

Can you see how that might be something of a problem?

And before you start with the fake news, i.e. it was just done to calm a wing of the Tory party, UKIP won an EU election and the referendum passed through Parliament with an overwhelming majority with support from all sides. 

[jakswan]

Oh, you're back.
As for Corbyn being useless, he demolished May's majority at the last election, against all expectations.

Former LibDem speaking here can't support that party currently because of their position on Brexit, couldn't vote for Corbyn since I think he would bankrupt the country, left me with Tories. Then May starts her campaign, actually mentions foxhunting and announces policy that was defensible and folds under slightest scrutiny, the worst election campaign I can ever recall.

A centrist Labour MP would have won that election by a landslide would certainly have got my vote.   

I challenged your Corbyn economic policy on the Corbyn thread no defence to be heard, in fact the only defence of Corbyn policy I have ever heard is 'what about the Tories', literally whataboutery.

[Humph Warden Bennett]

Owen Paterson MP has just told Sky News that he saw European workers leaving a construction site covered in dust, and that "British " workers told him "We are voting to get rid of THEM" indicating the Europeans. And he is behaving as if he is proud of the same.

I have no comment.

[jeremyp]

So you would advocate after Parliament decided to give the people a vote get the result they don't want and just ignore it?

Well parliament should never have given the people the referendum in the first place, but yes, the politicians should be ignoring it. Maybe not at the time, but it has since become very clear that leaving the EU in an orderly, non destructive fashion is next to impossible.

Can you see how that might be something of a problem?

As you said, this is a parliamentary democracy. We shouldn't be using referendums at all.

And before you start with the fake news, i.e. it was just done to calm a wing of the Tory party,

Why would you describe that as fake news when it is true?

UKIP won an EU election

You mean they got some seats.

and the referendum passed through Parliament with an overwhelming majority with support from all sides.

Which is another abrogation of the principle of parliamentary democracy. These guys are really pathetic.

[jakswan]

Well parliament should never have given the people the referendum in the first place, but yes, the politicians should be ignoring it. Maybe not at the time, but it has since become very clear that leaving the EU in an orderly, non destructive fashion is next to impossible.
As you said, this is a parliamentary democracy. We shouldn't be using referendums at all.

A parliamentary democracy can pass into law a referendum, if the should depends on if there is a democratic consensus in Parliament.

Why would you describe that as fake news when it is true?

For that to be true then only Tory MP's would have put through the EU Referendum Bill, there was support from Labour for it.  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33067157

You mean they got some seats.

Nope.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-27572451/farage-hails-extraordinary-ukip-win-in-european-election

[jeremyp]

A parliamentary democracy can pass into law a referendum,

It's hardly a parliamentary democracy if it is too cowardly to make the decision without a referendum.

For that to be true then only Tory MP's would have put through the EU Referendum Bill, there was support from Labour for it.  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33067157

I don't follow the logic. Why does Labour voting for the referendum exclude the possibility that it was proposed as a way to keep the Tory Party together? Also Labour was pretty well split over the EU in the same way as the Tories.

I will concede one point though. It wasn't proposed just to keep the Tory Party together but also to boot in to UKIP.

Nope.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-27572451/farage-hails-extraordinary-ukip-win-in-european-election

You're claiming that getting a little over a quarter of the seats is a victory? OK, so they got more votes than any other individual party but it was still less than one third. And guess what? Most ofd the seats in the EU Parliament are not occupied by Euro sceptics.

[jakswan]

It's hardly a parliamentary democracy if it is too cowardly to make the decision without a referendum.

It can't make the decision having given a referendum, take a centrist Politician, could be Tory - LibDem - Labour and they are very concerned about UKIP so they support a vote. They can't then simply ignore it.

I don't follow the logic. Why does Labour voting for the referendum exclude the possibility that it was proposed as a way to keep the Tory Party together? Also Labour was pretty well split over the EU in the same way as the Tories.

I said this was would be fake 'it was just done to calm a wing of the Tory party' it wasn't just the Tories that were spooked by UKIP it was all parties.

I will concede one point though. It wasn't proposed just to keep the Tory Party together but also to boot in to UKIP.

You concede the point I was making.

You're claiming that getting a little over a quarter of the seats is a victory? OK, so they got more votes than any other individual party but it was still less than one third. And guess what? Most ofd the seats in the EU Parliament are not occupied by Euro sceptics.

Does that matter to the point I was making; is that all politicians were spooked by UKIP.

You seem to think that Parliament will simply not do Brexit by means of some magic, the only way to reverse Brexit is another vote, no other options exist, you might think there should be but given MP's voting history it is not going to happen. 

[Harrowby Hall]

My gut feeling is that there will be another vote.

It may not come immediately. I think that it is likely that the date of the final departure will be put back another year. The process of "unravelling" which starts in March will be so troublesome that - at some point during the process - public disquiet will have grown so great that the question will have to be put again to the population.

The likelihood then is that the disentangling process will be aborted and the United Kingdom will simply assume the position it had held before Cameron's act of political stupidity.

A possible bonus is that the whole affair might prompt a serious examination of the United Kingdom constitution - including a consideration of whether a Parliamentary system designed in the early part of the nineteenth century is fit for purpose in the twenty first.

[jeremyp]

It can't make the decision having given a referendum, take a centrist Politician, could be Tory - LibDem - Labour and they are very concerned about UKIP so they support a vote. They can't then simply ignore it.

Yes they can. They just don't have the balls.

You seem to think that Parliament will simply not do Brexit by means of some magic, the only way to reverse Brexit is another vote, no other options exist, you might think there should be but given MP's voting history it is not going to happen.

Theresa may could stop Brexit today if she had the nerve. Yes, it would probably bring about the collapse of the government, but we can have a general election and get a new government. Once Brexit is done, it will take years, maybe decades to repair the damage.

Be honest, do you think the negotiations are going well?

[jakswan]

Yes they can. They just don't have the balls.

They do not have the political capital to do it.

Theresa may could stop Brexit today if she had the nerve. Yes, it would probably bring about the collapse of the government,

LOL its democracy she would lose the support of her party and be out of job in no time, there are already murmurings she might face a challenge this week.

but we can have a general election and get a new government. Once Brexit is done, it will take years, maybe decades to repair the damage.

What new government, the best you can hope for is a hung Parliament with the LibDems getting into a coalition and forcing another vote. Labour would do Brexit, hard to tell what they will do actually because the Marxists will want out. 

The damage caused... yeah try Corbyn we will be bankrupt in fours years make Brexit insignificant.

Be honest, do you think the negotiations are going well?

The EU have offered Norway or Canada +++, if Labour were not holding the country hostage for political gain a Norway type deal would get through Parliament.

Whatever happens has to get through Parliament, no scenario you present will happen, that is political reality.

[jeremyp]

They do not have the political capital to do it.

What do you think "political capital" is. All it means is that they can't do it without risking the end of their careers. They could do it if they had the balls.

LOL its democracy she would lose the support of her party and be out of job in no time, there are already murmurings she might face a challenge this week.

But she would have done the right thing.

Whatever happens has to get through Parliament, no scenario you present will happen, that is political reality.

Because nobody has the courage to do the right thing. And we will inevitably end up with no deal because all the politicians are putting their own jobs ahead of the welfare of everybody else. It's disgusting.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

They do not have the political capital to do it.

LOL its democracy she would lose the support of her party and be out of job in no time, there are already murmurings she might face a challenge this week.

What new government, the best you can hope for is a hung Parliament with the LibDems getting into a coalition and forcing another vote. Labour would do Brexit, hard to tell what they will do actually because the Marxists will want out. 

The damage caused... yeah try Corbyn we will be bankrupt in fours years make Brexit insignificant.

Corbyn need not do anything and still be a giant of a leader.

Here is the record of the tories.
2016 A deal with the EU will be the easiest thing in the world.

2017 Nobody said that a deal would be easy.

2018 We will not know what the benefits are until 50 years after Brexit

2018 We are turning the M26 into acar park for delayed vehicles.

2018 There will food and drug shortages.

[SteveH]

2019 - state of emergency.
2020 - zombie apocalypse.
2021 - nuclear armageddon.

[jakswan]

What do you think "political capital" is. All it means is that they can't do it without risking the end of their careers. They could do it if they had the balls.

Technically they could do it, they won't though.

But she would have done the right thing.

Explain the process, for Art50 to be reversed it has to get through Parliament, May can present a Bill that would reverse Art50 but it would not get through Parliament.

Because nobody has the courage to do the right thing. And we will inevitably end up with no deal because all the politicians are putting their own jobs ahead of the welfare of everybody else. It's disgusting.

The 'right thing' according to you, each politician does the right thing according to them.

[jakswan]

Corbyn need not do anything and still be a giant of a leader.

Here is the record of the tories.
2016 A deal with the EU will be the easiest thing in the world.

2017 Nobody said that a deal would be easy.

2018 We will not know what the benefits are until 50 years after Brexit

2018 We are turning the M26 into acar park for delayed vehicles.

2018 There will food and drug shortages.

Whataboutery 101, this is all the Marxists have.

[Stranger]

Whataboutery 101, this is all the Marxists have.

   Given our undemocratic FPTP voting system, choosing who to vote for is (at least for me) all about which party/leader is the least bad. UK politics is all about 'whataboutery'.

Also, calling people who think Corbyn is the least bad option, or even his ardent supporters, 'Marxists' is childish in the extreme.

[jakswan]

  Given our undemocratic FPTP voting system, choosing who to vote for is (at least for me) all about which party/leader is the least bad. UK politics is all about 'whataboutery'.

So in defence of Tory policy its ok for a Tory to defend it by saying how bad labour would be.

Also, calling people who think Corbyn is the least bad option, or even his ardent supporters, 'Marxists' is childish in the extreme.

Well since one of his biggest supporters, the shadow chancellor, is on the record as being a Marxist I think you have wildly overstated your position, making yourself look very silly, you might say childish.

[jeremyp]

Explain the process, for Art50 to be reversed it has to get through Parliament, May can present a Bill that would reverse Art50 but it would not get through Parliament.

No it doesn't. It would have to be OK'd by the EU, but the government could stop it now if the EU agreed.

The 'right thing' according to you, each politician does the right thing according to them.

Does the Brexit thing look like it's going well to you? Can't you agree that, whether or not Brexit is good in principle, what is actually happening is a complete shambles?

[jakswan]

No it doesn't. It would have to be OK'd by the EU, but the government could stop it now if the EU agreed.

It took me 2 seconds I'm not evening opening the page but here is a result of a Google search.
European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 — UK Parliament
https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2016.../europeanunionnotificationofwithdrawal.htm...
A Bill to confer power on the Prime Minister to notify, under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union, the United Kingdom's intention to withdraw from the EU.

I think the PM cannot revoke Art50 without another act.

Oh and here JC on that Bill; Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said: "I am asking all our MPs not to block Article 50 and make sure it goes through next week".

Does the Brexit thing look like it's going well to you? Can't you agree that, whether or not Brexit is good in principle, what is actually happening is a complete shambles?

A Norway type or Canda +++ deal is on the cards, as stated I would expect a Norway deal to get through Parliament. Labour could come out tomorrow and say they would support Norway type deal and it would get through, Labour could also support another vote but don't seem to want to, maybe as they were Pro-Brexit at the last election.

[jeremyp]

Oh and here JC on that Bill; Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said: "I am asking all our MPs not to block Article 50 and make sure it goes through next week".

The MPs don't have to follow his lead. If all the MPs in parliament that privately thought Brexit was wrong got together and stood up for their principles, Brexit wouldn't happen. It might be the ends of their careers, but they would be sacrificing their jobs for the future of their country. This is not unprecedented although it seems unlikely now.

A Norway type or Canda +++ deal is on the cards, as stated I would expect a Norway deal to get through Parliament. Labour could come out tomorrow and say they would support Norway type deal and it would get through, Labour could also support another vote but don't seem to want to, maybe as they were Pro-Brexit at the last election.

The Norway deal won't get through the Tory Party. It's a bad deal for in pretty much everybody in Britain's opinion in that it is the same as being in the EU but without having any control over EU law. So for the Remainers, staying in would be better and for the Leavers, pretty much anything else would be better except staying in.

[jakswan]

The MPs don't have to follow his lead. If all the MPs in parliament that privately thought Brexit was wrong got together and stood up for their principles, Brexit wouldn't happen. It might be the ends of their careers, but they would be sacrificing their jobs for the future of their country. This is not unprecedented although it seems unlikely now.

MPs in parliament might privately think Brexit was a bad idea but stick to the principle that since they opted to give the country a vote they have to honour the result.

The Norway deal won't get through the Tory Party. It's a bad deal for in pretty much everybody in Britain's opinion in that it is the same as being in the EU but without having any control over EU law. So for the Remainers, staying in would be better and for the Leavers, pretty much anything else would be better except staying in.

A Norway type deal has to get through Parliament, if it doesn't get a majority of Tory MP support that doesn't matter.

So given the choice would you prefer Norway or Canada +++?

[Rhiannon]

http://newsthump.com/2018/10/23/hard-brexit-supporter-james-dyson-to-build-patriotic-new-car-plant-in-nearby-singapore/

[Spud]

So given the choice would you prefer Norway or Canada +++?

Remain would possibly be better than those?

[Rhiannon]

Remain would possibly be better than those?

Spud, well done. You've seen the light.

[Spud]

Spud, well done. You've seen the light.

I'm pro-EU but I don't agree with unlimited migration. But I think the idea of limiting immigration to those earning over a certain very high amount isn't good. I know migration is complex but that's not a fair solution.  Perhaps there should be something akin to a waiting list,  it seems to work quite well for the local allotments?