Brexit - the next steps

[Udayana]

Then why have the vote at all? That's EU all over: never listen to the people. Ask the Dutch, Danish and Irish. Federalism whether the people want it or not. That's what the UK voted to reject.

They rejected ratification of a treaty, the treaty was ammended and clarified then they voted again ... that is how it is supposed to work.

That the UK does not vote on new treaties is nothing to do with the EU but due to decisions by UK governments.

[Gordon]

A government paper mentions the risks associated with a no-deal Brexit. Looking at these, and even though the government say they are part of planning, one wonders on why a rational government would even consider taking these risks: of course we don't have a rational government any more, which is why a means to stop no-deal must be found.

The dossier reported by the Sunday Times says leaving the EU without a deal could lead to:

Fresh food becoming less available and prices rising

A hard Irish border after plans to avoid checks fail, sparking protests

Fuel becoming less available and 2,000 jobs could be lost if the government sets petrol import tariffs to 0%, potentially causing two oil refineries to close

UK patients having to wait longer for medicines, including insulin and flu vaccines

A rise in public disorder and community tensions resulting from a shortage of food and drugs

Passengers delayed at EU airports, Eurotunnel and Dover

Freight disruption at ports lasting up to three months, caused by customs checks, before traffic flow improves to 50-70% of the current rate

The government said the document was not what it expected to happen, but outlined scenarios being looked at as part of its no-deal preparations.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49385263 

[Spud]

Harrowby Hall, I thought the referendum was partly called in response to the high number of ukip votes in 2015?

[Harrowby Hall]

I'm not sure that there is any evidence to support this being any other than an additional factor.

What is clear is that Theresa May's slogan, "Bexit means Brexit" was a clear call to UKIP voters telling them it was safe to rejoin the Tory party. It was an attempt to ensure that her party would be returned with a large majority in any future general election. However, she then managed to shoot herself in both feet.

[ippy]

I see today when I was catching up on some of the news stories and I see Poland's not too keen on the EU interfering with it's internal affairs laws, immigration etc, I'm sure I've heard of something similar going on elsewhere in Europe.

Funny thing about the the poles, so the news outlet says, seem to be worried about Germany acquiring so much power at the centre of the EU in Brussels, I wonder why?   

ippy

[ekim]

As Basil Fawlty said 'Don't mention the war.  We are all friends now.'   

[ippy]

As Basil Fawlty said 'Don't mention the war.  We are all friends now.'   

Try this interview on YouTube:

Poland Challenges the European identity - George Friedman.

You can hear it for yourself without any of my input.

Regards ippy

[Gordon]

Try this interview on YouTube:

Poland Challenges the European identity - George Friedman.

You can hear it for yourself without any of my input.

Regards ippy

So, in what way is this guy's views relevant to the carnage a no-deal Brexit will bring on us poor saps in the UK, as reported today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49385263

[ad_orientem]

I see today when I was catching up on some of the news stories and I see Poland's not too keen on the EU interfering with it's internal affairs laws, immigration etc, I'm sure I've heard of something similar going on elsewhere in Europe.

Funny thing about the the poles, so the news outlet says, seem to be worried about Germany acquiring so much power at the centre of the EU in Brussels, I wonder why?   

ippy

That's about it.

[Aruntraveller]

Try this interview on YouTube:

Poland Challenges the European identity - George Friedman.

You can hear it for yourself without any of my input.

Regards ippy

And yet the Poles can still see the benefits of the EU:

https://poland.pl/social-issues/social/most-poles-support-polish-membership-eu/

[ProfessorDavey]

... and I like the majority of the UK population want to leave ...

Really?!? And there was me thinking that the UK population was 63 million and the leave vote in the referendum was 17.4 million. You must be using a different definition of 'majority of the UK population'.

[bluehillside Retd.]

ippy,

Really?!? And there was me thinking that the UK population was 63 million and the leave vote in the referendum was 17.4 million. You must be using a different definition of 'majority of the UK population'.

And just to add that, if you do leave somewhere, then necessarily you have to go somewhere else. The leave campaign told you that that somewhere else would be a lovely garden with free pizza, unicorns playing in the fountains and Felicity Kendall being all coquettish. Now you know that the somewhere else is actually a rickety rope bridge across a lake full of crocodiles do you not think that it wise to weigh your antipathy against the EU against that reality?   

[ippy]

ippy,

And just to add that, if you do leave somewhere, then necessarily you have to go somewhere else. The leave campaign told you that that somewhere else would be a lovely garden with free pizza, unicorns playing in the fountains and Felicity Kendall being all coquettish. Now you know that the somewhere else is actually a rickety rope bridge across a lake full of crocodiles do you not think that it wise to weigh your antipathy against the EU against that reality?

It seems that a number of remain people, including virtually all of the media, there's some sort of collective blind spot in the eyes a sort of gap in the memory, the choice was leave or remain now I'm sure leave won the day.

Regards ippy

[Outrider]

It seems that a number of remain people, including virtually all of the media, there's some sort of collective blind spot in the eyes a sort of gap in the memory, the choice was leave or remain now I'm sure leave won the day.

There also seems to be a failure of memory on the part of some Leave voters who don't seem to recall how 'Leave' was described at the time and what 'Leave' is being painted as now, notwithstanding the rose-tinted paintbrush that was used to create the Leave pictures in the first place.

O.

[ippy]

Really?!? And there was me thinking that the UK population was 63 million and the leave vote in the referendum was 17.4 million. You must be using a different definition of 'majority of the UK population'.

That looks like desperate hair splitting to me.

Hard cheese to those that didn't get up off of their backsides to vote.

Regards, ippy. 

[bluehillside Retd.]

ippy,

It seems that a number of remain people, including virtually all of the media, there's some sort of collective blind spot in the eyes a sort of gap in the memory, the choice was leave or remain now I'm sure leave won the day.

In that case can I interest you in buying my brand new Aston Martin DB7 for £500? When it arrives and you realise it's actually a 30-year old Austin Metro barely held together with rust and powered with a rubber band naturally you'll be cool with that - after all, you made your decision on the basis of the promises I made so you'll want to stick with the deal right?   

[ippy]

There also seems to be a failure of memory on the part of some Leave voters who don't seem to recall how 'Leave' was described at the time and what 'Leave' is being painted as now, notwithstanding the rose-tinted paintbrush that was used to create the Leave pictures in the first place.

O.

So sorry Outlander I keep on forgetting all of us leavers're all as thick as.

Regards, ippy. 

[bluehillside Retd.]

ippy,

So sorry Outlander I keep on forgetting all of us leavers're all as thick as.

Being duped by convincing liars doesn't make you thick. Sticking with your decision when the facts are revealed though certainly makes you obdurate.

Now about that Aston Martin - where should I deliver it?

[ippy]

ippy,

In that case can I interest you in buying my brand new Aston Martin DB7 for £500? When it arrives and you realise it's actually a 30-year old Austin Metro barely held together with rust and powered with a rubber band naturally you'll be cool with that - after all, you made your decision on the basis of the promises I made so you'll want to stick with the deal right?   

My post 4191, substitute Outlander with Blue.

Regards, ippy.

[Outrider]

So sorry Outlander I keep on forgetting all of us leavers're all as thick as.

Regards, ippy.

So you pointing out what you believe are the foibles of some remainers is 'fair comment', presumably, but my similar summary of the limitations of some leavers is an accusation of stupidity?

No deal was not part of the suggestions when Leave was campaigning, there were any number of Michael Gove-ish 'easiest trade deal in the world' commentaries even whilst Farage and Johnson and the others pretended that Leave was a single position and not a morass of contrasting and contradictory possibilities.

I don't doubt there are any number of Leave voters for whom the short- and mid-term financial and cultural impacts are a price worth paying for some sense of political freedom (I happen to married to someone who thinks like that), and that's a valid position, even if it's one that I don't share.  That doesn't change the fact that the 'Leave' that was campaigned for is a very different 'Leave' to the one we appear to be careening towards.

O.

[Christine]

If the leave-at-any-cost camp are so sure that they are fulfilling the wishes of a majority of the UK people, why aren't they happy to put the reality to them in another vote?  It can't be a matter of principle, surely, when they are unconcerned about corruption and dishonesty in the original campaign?

Leave campaigners had around 40 years to come up with a workable exit strategy and develop a blueprint for thriving outside the EU.  Where are they?

 
 

[Harrowby Hall]

ippy,

And just to add that, if you do leave somewhere, then necessarily you have to go somewhere else. The leave campaign told you that that somewhere else would be a lovely garden with free pizza, unicorns playing in the fountains and Felicity Kendall being all coquettish. Now you know that the somewhere else is actually a rickety rope bridge across a lake full of crocodiles do you not think that it wise to weigh your antipathy against the EU against that reality?

Your analogy is missing a final, vital, feature:

 ... a lovely garden with free pizza, unicorns playing in the fountains and Felicity Kendall being all coquettish.

... a rickety rope bridge across a lake full of crocodiles ... and Ann Widdecombe breathing fire and brimstone

[ProfessorDavey]

That looks like desperate hair splitting to me.

Hard cheese to those that didn't get up off of their backsides to vote.

Regards, ippy.

Not hair splitting at all.

Now I'm not so bothered about people who couldn't be bothered to vote, although it is common for such a major change to require a 'super-majority', e.g. 60% of those that vote or 50% of the electorate etc.

However I am more concerned about people who weren't allowed to vote. So for example all those people who are now 18 before brexit is enacted but have not been allowed any democratic say as they weren't 18 over 3 years ago (including my 2 sons). Also EU nations who are long term/permanent UK residents but also not allowed to vote. And of course, arguably those 2 groups are the groups who will be most affected by brexit, but have not been allowed a say.

[ippy]

Not hair splitting at all.

Now I'm not so bothered about people who couldn't be bothered to vote, although it is common for such a major change to require a 'super-majority', e.g. 60% of those that vote or 50% of the electorate etc.

However I am more concerned about people who weren't allowed to vote. So for example all those people who are now 18 before brexit is enacted but have not been allowed any democratic say as they weren't 18 over 3 years ago (including my 2 sons). Also EU nations who are long term/permanent UK residents but also not allowed to vote. And of course, arguably those 2 groups are the groups who will be most affected by brexit, but have not been allowed a say.

I've read your post Proff, I don't remember being asked anything about the best of three or say best of five or anything else like that, leave won the day remain didn't, as far as I'm concerned that's it.

I can appreciate how bitter this pill is for remainers but there, it was plainly stated, presented, or however you wish to put it, as a vote to leave or remain your side well, you know the rest.

Regards, ippy.

[ippy]

ippy,

Being duped by convincing liars doesn't make you thick. Sticking with your decision when the facts are revealed though certainly makes you obdurate.

Now about that Aston Martin - where should I deliver it?

Just an aside your mention of that iffy Aston, I was in my little town today and thought I'd have a quick look around our local cheepie bookshop and spotted a Haynes workshop manual for a JU 87 Stuka dive bomber and I just wondered if you'd like me to reserve a copy for you to perhaps go with your rubber band Aston M.

I really did see that book I'm not making it up, I could hardly believe what I was seeing but it has settled the decision of what to buy my wife for christmas this year. 

Regards, ippy.