Brexit - the next steps

[Nearly Sane]

I see Richard Tice of the Brexit Party is offering the Tories a deal if they support a 'clean break' Brexit - but I can't see that being the Tory Party position. It may though end up being a deal in those constituencies whether the Tory candidate comes out in favour of no deal, which could lead to a substantial rump of Tories against Johnson's deal. This could all continue to be very confusing.

[jeremyp]

I did say a bit and why not save this kind of discussion for after we've left the EU.

It'll be too late after we've left.

[Udayana]

Reasons suggested for going for the 12th were giving enough time for the WAB to go through, allowing the NI budget to go through and that it was a Thursday.

 PM now says he is dropping the WAB to get an early election. Not sure why the NI budget was important. Could be that they go for the 10th as it starts with a "T" ?

I think they've all fallen for one of Boris' diversion tactics and we will end up back in roughly the same place in Jan.

[Nearly Sane]

Reasons suggested for going for the 12th were giving enough time for the WAB to go through, allowing the NI budget to go through and that it was a Thursday.

 PM now says he is dropping the WAB to get an early election. Not sure why the NI budget was important. Could be that they go for the 10th as it starts with a "T" ?

I think they've all fallen for one of Boris' diversion tactics and we will end up back in roughly the same place in Jan.

I think they are affected by their inability to agree and work together to get a second referendum. It's difficult to make a case for continually voting against a GE when you are the opposition as it just makes you look scared - particularly against a minority govt. It may be a way out of the problem dependent on votes but as you say we may be back in the same place in a couple of months.

[bluehillside Retd.]

NS,

I think they are affected by their inability to agree and work together to get a second referendum. It's difficult to make a case for continually voting against a GE when you are the opposition as it just makes you look scared -

Prediction coming on: GE happens; hung parliament; several more months of indecision; EU threatens no more extensions, they'd rather take the pain of a hard Brexit instead; Labour, Lib Dems etc plus various others panic and finally do the right thing and force through a second referendum remain vs Johnson deal; also make it binding and appoint an independent office of fact checking re the two campaigns; country realises what a shit storm has been visited upon it by the liars and chancers, remain wins; all back as we were lads albeit with legacy of globally damaged reputation; Sajid Javid retires to curate his 50p collection. 

Remember folks, you read it here first!

[Nearly Sane]

The Britain Elects poll tracker gives the Conservatives a lead of 10pts: CON: 35.1% (+0.3) LAB: 25.4% (-) LDEM: 18.1% (-0.1) BREX: 11.3% (-0.1) GRN: 4.0% (-0.2) Chgs. w/ last week.

[jeremyp]

The Britain Elects poll tracker gives the Conservatives a lead of 10pts: CON: 35.1% (+0.3) LAB: 25.4% (-) LDEM: 18.1% (-0.1) BREX: 11.3% (-0.1) GRN: 4.0% (-0.2) Chgs. w/ last week.

Let's make the unsupported assumption that the Leavers all support Tories and Bexit and the Remainers all support Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. Tories + Brexit = 46.4%, Labour + Lib Dem + Green = 47.5%. Provided the Brexit party vote doesn't collapse (and supporters move to Tory) and given that the SNP will likely sweep the board in Scotland, I think we are headed for another hung parliament.

[Nearly Sane]

The numbers give a Tory Majority of around 60. The split in the 'remain' vote seems to be the weak spot. Unless Brexit take more votes from Tories, then I can see Johnson getting enough for his deal.

[Nearly Sane]

Meanwhile in People's Vote....


https://www.cityam.com/peoples-vote-staff-continue-revolt-as-pr-tycoon-roland-rudd-hides-out-at-the-hilton/

[ProfessorDavey]

The numbers give a Tory Majority of around 60. The split in the 'remain' vote seems to be the weak spot. Unless Brexit take more votes from Tories, then I can see Johnson getting enough for his deal.

The problem with extrapolating polls into predictions of seat numbers is that most models work on an assumption of a uniform national swing.

I think in this election we are likely to see unprecedented levels of tactical voting to support the candidate most likely to secure the seat for a particular brexit position. So if the 'split' in the remain vote is uniform then you are right that Johnson is likely to secure a majority. But if it is efficient and tactical - in other words remainers swinging behind the LibDems in seats where they have the best chance of unseating a Tory (or hold on to an existing seat) and behind Labour where they are best placed to win then it could be very interesting.

[Nearly Sane]

The problem with extrapolating polls into predictions of seat numbers is that most models work on an assumption of a uniform national swing.

I think in this election we are likely to see unprecedented levels of tactical voting to support the candidate most likely to secure the seat for a particular brexit position. So if the 'split' in the remain vote is uniform then you are right that Johnson is likely to secure a majority. But if it is efficient and tactical - in other words remainers swinging behind the LibDems in seats where they have the best chance of unseating a Tory (or hold on to an existing seat) and behind Labour where they are best placed to win then it could be very interesting.

Tactical voting becomes much harder if the overall polling numbers are close and for the LDs and Labour here that's a problem. In the last election we had a flight back to the 2 main parties because of tactical voting. I think the 'efficiency' of it is going to be stretched. I think the 60 seats is too high but I think 20 is about right.

[Nearly Sane]

I wonder how many current MPs might decide not to stand - I can't think that they will have enjoyed the last couple of years and with the ongoing abuse and death threats must be tempting just to say 'Bye'

[ProfessorDavey]

Tactical voting becomes much harder if the overall polling numbers are close and for the LDs and Labour here that's a problem. In the last election we had a flight back to the 2 main parties because of tactical voting. I think the 'efficiency' of it is going to be stretched. I think the 60 seats is too high but I think 20 is about right.

Tactical voting works on constituency level - so it doesn't matter whether the overall polling nationally is similar between Labour and LibDems (for example) as long as people in individual constituencies recognise who is best placed to win. And I think in most cases that is pretty clear to voters.

So I think the LibDems will do particularly well in the London fringes where there are many remain constituencies where it is pretty clear that Labour aren't going to win.

[Nearly Sane]

And now we have Barry Sheerman claiming majority of Shadow Cabinet were against election.

[Nearly Sane]

Tactical voting works on constituency level - so it doesn't matter whether the overall polling nationally is similar between Labour and LibDems (for example) as long as people in individual constituencies recognise who is best placed to win. And I think in most cases that is pretty clear to voters.

So I think the LibDems will do particularly well in the London fringes where there are many remain constituencies where it is pretty clear that Labour aren't going to win.

As already noted in the last election there was a flight back to the 2 main parties and that was part of a tactical vote. It's also difficult in a GE to avoid thinking about what govt is likely to be in for up to 5 years. This isn't a referendum, and if the @remain' parties are not aiming for widespread tactical voting then the message will become muddled.

[Nearly Sane]

More on the stramash at People's Vote, or possibly The People's Front of People's Vote, or the Popular People's Vote


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50221305

[Nearly Sane]

So amendments to the bill being allowed - if something like allowing EU citizens to vote was passed (Not that I think it would) not sure what would happen as practicalities would surely delay vote?

Meanwhile still unclear if Bercow will be speaker on Friday.

[ProfessorDavey]

So amendments to the bill being allowed - if something like allowing EU citizens to vote was passed (Not that I think it would) not sure what would happen as practicalities would surely delay vote?

Meanwhile still unclear if Bercow will be speaker on Friday.

Doubt it would pass, but if it were I'm not convinced it would delay the vote as they are already on the electoral roll for the euro elections, so it would be straightforward to add them when creating the electoral roll for the GE.

[Roses]

So amendments to the bill being allowed - if something like allowing EU citizens to vote was passed (Not that I think it would) not sure what would happen as practicalities would surely delay vote?

Meanwhile still unclear if Bercow will be speaker on Friday.

It looks as if Bercow is staying on for the time being.

[Nearly Sane]

It looks as if Bercow is staying on for the time being.

I saw earlier that he had hinted he might if the MPs wanted him to, not seen anything after that.

[Roses]

Our vicar daughter is not happy about the idea of December as the primary schools for which she has organised Christmas activities are used as polling stations, and this could mean they don't happen. I have heard that other people are also unhappy at the prospect of an election for the same reason.

[Nearly Sane]

Just in case anyone eligible isn't registered.


https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote?fbclid=IwAR3GbEGLdp7eO4HCgywGGAHnF6L6h4htvAPOaPZ6KniHFqd0J_xhs1-7pUw

[Nearly Sane]

Not sure the attempts to extend the franchise were thought out. Looked a bit desperate.

[Nearly Sane]

So 12th December it is.

[Gordon]

Should be interesting on many fronts: such as, into which unlucky constituency will Johnson be parachuted?