Brexit - the next steps

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Yes, but she realizes also that walking away will negate our ability to trade with the EU.   Every truckload will have to be documented and checked at frontiers, I think it's 12, 000 trucks a day go through Dover.   They'd better cone off the M3 as a permanent lorry park.

Yep. Heavy traffic and congestion will obviously affect Tory heartlands in Kent, Surrey, Essex and maybe Berks as well.

I think the ability to fuck off it's own heartlands will be tested in Kent, threatened with operation Stack and relief lorry parks planned, at the local and general elections. If they can allow misery to happen there and still hang on to the vote nothing'll stop them.

[Ricky Spanish]

"— Jeremy Cliffe (@JeremyCliffe) April 30, 2017
17) May then insisted to Juncker et al that UK owes EU no money because there is nothing to that effect in the treaties.

— Jeremy Cliffe (@JeremyCliffe) April 30, 2017
19) Davis then objected that EU could not force a post-Brexit, post-ECJ UK to pay the bill. OK, said Juncker, then no trade deal.

— Jeremy Cliffe (@JeremyCliffe) April 30, 2017
25) Juncker's team now think it more likely than not that Brexit talks will collapse & hope Brits wake up to harsh realities in time.

— Jeremy Cliffe (@JeremyCliffe) April 30, 2017
27) The report points to major communications/briefing problems. Important messages from Berlin & Brussels seem not to be getting through.

— Jeremy Cliffe (@JeremyCliffe) April 30, 2017
28) Presumably, as a result, May seems to be labouring under some really rather fundamental misconceptions about Brexit & the EU27."

Says it all really!!

[wigginhall]

It's possible that May is being very clever, and bluffing like mad, partly to fool her Ultras, who want a complete divorce.   On the other hand, she may just be rather dim and fairly ignorant about the EU.   Place your bets!

[jeremyp]

I can't decide if May is cleverly faking a hard Brexit, in order to keep the Ultras quiet, but she will accept a kind of modified customs union, with 'frictionless' trade across EU borders.  Or alternatively, she really believes that she can cherry-pick various goodies, and not pay anything back.    Probably the second one, and no doubt, the Tories will be ready to blame everybody - the EU, Germany, France, Corbyn, if it goes pear-shaped.  But the pear will be strong and stable.

She's faking hard Brexit. It's also the best explanation for the election. If she has a big majority, she can say "fuck you" to the hardliners.

[jeremyp]

Given the goals of the Conservative party are an army of unemployed and cheap labour... to achieve that in one fell swoop i.e. an inevitably shit Brexit must be mouthwatering.

I don't see how that follows. An easy way to get access to cheap labour is to stay in the EU. A hard way to get access to cheap labour is to drive the economy (and therefore employment) into the pit of despair and to revoke all our labour laws.

[ProfessorDavey]

I don't see how that follows. An easy way to get access to cheap labour is to stay in the EU. A hard way to get access to cheap labour is to drive the economy (and therefore employment) into the pit of despair and to revoke all our labour laws.

We will still have loads of cheap labour - simply because all those farms that rely on immigrant labour to pick their crops, all those care homes that rely on immigrant labour to look after your elderly mother or grandmother, all those hotels that rely on immigrant labour to clean the rooms and serve in the bar will demand it. And no government will go against them.

And before anyone suggest that these could all be done by brits - do you really think that a company will go to the massive effort of recruiting from abroad if there were local people willing to do the job.

[jeremyp]

We will still have loads of cheap labour - simply because all those farms that rely on immigrant labour to pick their crops, all those care homes that rely on immigrant labour to look after your elderly mother or grandmother, all those hotels that rely on immigrant labour to clean the rooms and serve in the bar will demand it. And no government will go against them.

And before anyone suggest that these could all be done by brits - do you really think that a company will go to the massive effort of recruiting from abroad if there were local people willing to do the job.

Of course it's true. Of our net immigration of around 300,000, only about half comes fro  the EU. If there was really a concern about immigration, the government could halve it tomorrow without breaching EU rules. They don't do it because immigration is good for the country on balance.

[ProfessorDavey]

Of course it's true. Of our net immigration of around 300,000, only about half comes fro  the EU. If there was really a concern about immigration, the government could halve it tomorrow without breaching EU rules. They don't do it because immigration is good for the country on balance.

Absolutely - were there to have been any appetite to curb net migration successive governments would have clamped down on non-EU migration, which they have always had complete control over - but they didn't. And the government won't clamp down on EU migration post-brexit in anything other than a nominal fashion. Why - because the country needs these people to do all sorts of jobs that UK citizens won't do.

[Anchorman]

String theory; Boris Johnston and a cat: Star Wars........ Well, it makes as much sense as Theresa May's conversation over dinner....... https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2017/05/01/in-a-galaxy-far-far-away/

[Walt Zingmatilder]

What is the best possible brexit deal?
How can you promise it if you've said you would walk away with no deal?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Didn't May talk up our special relationship with the US. They were going to keep us at the front of the queue and then Trump forgot about that at his inauguration.

I think we need to know what Brexit hopes to achieve and how the tories will ensure it's as good as what's gone on before.

[Sriram]

In spite of Brexit....people are still calmly making billions.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-39830087

***********

The UK's richest 1,000 people "kept calm and carried on making billions" amid the Brexit vote of 2016, according to the Sunday Times Rich List.
Their wealth rose by 14% over the past year to a record £658bn, it shows.

Brothers Sri and Gopi Hinduja, who invest in property, healthcare and oil and gas, top this year's list with £16.2bn - up £3.2bn on 2016.

The list includes a record number of British billionaires - 134 - with 14 new ones emerging over the last year.

"We expected to see a chilling effect in the run-up to the EU referendum, but that simply did not materialise," Mr Watts said.
"A buoyant stock market usually drives the wealth of rich-listers higher, and since last June equities have soared."

Mr Watts said: "We're seeing more and more diversity in the composition of the Rich List.

"More women, more people from ethnic backgrounds, and more from surprising walks of life, with egg farmers and pet food makers lining up with hedge fund managers and private equity barons."

It now takes assets of £110m to break into the ranks of the richest 1,000 people in the UK. The figure in 2016 was £103m.

The top 20 in the list alone are worth a total of £191.77bn, increasing their wealth by £35.18bn over the past 12 months.

************

So...all is well apparently...!

Cheers.

Sriram

[Aruntraveller]

So...all is well apparently...!

Yes, if you consider the obscenely rich getting even richer an indicator of wellness.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

In spite of Brexit....people are still calmly making billions.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-39830087

***********

The UK's richest 1,000 people "kept calm and carried on making billions" amid the Brexit vote of 2016, according to the Sunday Times Rich List.
Their wealth rose by 14% over the past year to a record £658bn, it shows.

Brothers Sri and Gopi Hinduja, who invest in property, healthcare and oil and gas, top this year's list with £16.2bn - up £3.2bn on 2016.

The list includes a record number of British billionaires - 134 - with 14 new ones emerging over the last year.

"We expected to see a chilling effect in the run-up to the EU referendum, but that simply did not materialise," Mr Watts said.
"A buoyant stock market usually drives the wealth of rich-listers higher, and since last June equities have soared."

Mr Watts said: "We're seeing more and more diversity in the composition of the Rich List.

"More women, more people from ethnic backgrounds, and more from surprising walks of life, with egg farmers and pet food makers lining up with hedge fund managers and private equity barons."

It now takes assets of £110m to break into the ranks of the richest 1,000 people in the UK. The figure in 2016 was £103m.

The top 20 in the list alone are worth a total of £191.77bn, increasing their wealth by £35.18bn over the past 12 months.

************

So...all is well apparently...!

Cheers.

Sriram

That's not what the brexiteers voted for though. Everything was going to be right and 350 million going to the NHS each week.

let's DEFEAT INEQUALITY BY BRINGING ECONOMIC RUIN ON OURSELVES YEAHHH!!

[wigginhall]

Some interesting rumours about the leak of the Juncker dinner - for example, that it was a deliberate plant, designed to wind up May and the tabloids, hence 'Hands off our election', 'EU helping Labour', and so on, not with the idea of helping May win the election,  but the aim of making Brexit impossible.   This is probably too clever, and I'm not sure who would want to sabotage Brexit in the EU.   

[Rhiannon]

Yep. Heavy traffic and congestion will obviously affect Tory heartlands in Kent, Surrey, Essex and maybe Berks as well.

I think the ability to fuck off it's own heartlands will be tested in Kent, threatened with operation Stack and relief lorry parks planned, at the local and general elections. If they can allow misery to happen there and still hang on to the vote nothing'll stop them.

It's a worry.

http://southendnewsnetwork.com/snn-breaking/dartford-tunnel-closed-after-thousands-of-kent-residents-attempt-to-enter-essex-illegally-2/

[Ricky Spanish]

Southend News Network was originally started in October 2015 with no real aims or objectives in mind other than to add a satirical/spoof-like touch to issues that people are passionate about in Southend On Sea. Above all else, SNN is all about having the occasional ‘dig’ at the powers that be, as well a slightly bigger and more frequent ‘dig’ at certain elements of local media!

[Rhiannon]

Bloody hell, I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

[Ricky Spanish]

Some interesting rumours about the leak of the Juncker dinner - for example, that it was a deliberate plant, designed to wind up May and the tabloids, hence 'Hands off our election', 'EU helping Labour', and so on, not with the idea of helping May win the election,  but the aim of making Brexit impossible.   This is probably too clever, and I'm not sure who would want to sabotage Brexit in the EU.

Yeah. I was reading an article in Der Spiegel over the weekend that Merkel was ripping into Junker for the leak:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/angela-merkel-veraergert-ueber-jean-claude-juncker-nach-brexit-dinner-a-1146299.html

The full article is in the subscription version, but this one gives you the gist!

But what the hell, Here's the original Frankfurter Allgemeine article on the said dinner: http://tinyurl.com/ljd43s7   

[Ricky Spanish]

Laugh... it is one of my favourite spoof news sites...   

[Nearly Sane]

See its previous success



http://www.religionethics.co.uk/index.php?topic=13790.msg670966#msg670966

[Rhiannon]

Laugh... it is one of my favourite spoof news sites...   

Mine too. 

[wigginhall]

Yeah. I was reading an article in Der Spiegel over the weekend that Merkel was ripping into Junker for the leak:

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/angela-merkel-veraergert-ueber-jean-claude-juncker-nach-brexit-dinner-a-1146299.html

The full article is in the subscription version, but this one gives you the gist!

But what the hell, Here's the original Frankfurter Allgemeine article on the said dinner: http://tinyurl.com/ljd43s7   

Come on, Ricky, I know that you know who the saboteur is on the EU side.   Frau Merkel poses as nice kind Mutti, but as soon as the Brexit vote was announced, she saw her chance.   She told her favourite minion, Axel Von Klaus Axelmörder (an ancient German name), to spy out his chance.  Juncker's after-dinner tirade was the chance, and he casually leaked it in German, knowing full well that the brilliant linguists in the English press would soon be perusing it.   How did he know how to wind up Frau May?  Ah, you may ask, but the world is not ready for this information, or everybody will be doing it.     

Mutti was tired of hearing English football fans sing 'Two World Wars and One World Cup', and resolved that German fans would soon be singing 'Knacksel, Backsel, Brexit, Bollocks, England, Kaput'.   

[Ricky Spanish]

I'll take that under advisement Wiggs!!   

I await with bated breath to hear if Macron has reviewed his feelings on Brexit:

March 2017
Let’s talk about Brexit. What is the best response to the UK when it comes to negotiations?

Macron: I am a hard Brexiter. I think that Europe has made a mistake negotiating the inter-governmental accord [the “special status” deal David Cameron struck with the EU in February last year]. It created a precedent, which is that a single state can twist the European debate to its own interests. Cameron was toying with Europe and we agreed to go along with it, which was a big mistake.

Britain must understand that our interest in the medium to long term is to have clear rules. So if Britain wants to trade with Europe it has to choose a model, such as the Swiss, Norwegian or Canadian. We have to accept that there are losses. But it’s the British who will lose the most. You cannot enjoy rights in Europe if you are not a member – otherwise, it will fall apart. Europe is what has enabled us since 1945, in an unprecedented way, to preserve peace, security, freedom and prosperity in our continent. The British are making a serious mistake over the long term. [Foreign secretary] Boris Johnson enjoys giving flamboyant speeches but has no strategic vision; the turmoil he created the day after Brexit proves it. [Former leader of Ukip] Nigel Farage and Mr Johnson are responsible for this crime: they sailed the ship into battle and jumped overboard at the moment of crisis. Theresa May has handled it but what has been happening since then? On the geopolitical level as well as on the financial, realignment and submission to the US. What is going to happen is not “taking back control”: it’s servitude.

http://www.euronews.com/2017/05/08/what-emmanuel-macron-has-said-about-brexit

[Sassy]

Dear Jack, Jakswan, Sass and T8, ( there may be others lurking in the undergrowth )

given the decision of the high court do you think this is a good decision, is Brexit a small decision or a massive decision, should parliament debate every step/negotiating strategy we make before we trigger article 50.

Should it be left to the government to make every decision on how we leave the EU.

Given that the people who voted for Brexit came from all different walks of political life should it not be in their interests that all parties debate our exit from Europe.

Gonnagle.

Pass Tense Gonnagle,

Would it really make any difference to the actually exit?

If, you believe now that the involvement of Theresa May was anything less than a political move and future thinking for the
Conservative Party I would love to hear why.

Is it any wonder or co-incident that she having said " Brexit is going to happen" was anything less about winning back people?
Or even the fact a General election is now looming having triggering article 50 in March?

Wake up! Gonnagle, it has all been about the Conservative being a people pleaser and keeping power. Even I would be tempted to vote for the woman I like her. But unfortunately, I do not subscribe to a party who oppress the poor our needy in our society and leave the poorer children of families to go without food and the basic needs.

God knows best, and in this case we have to see behind the scenes to the reasoning for what is happening.