Brexit - the next steps

[wigginhall]

Quite. In fact there is nothing to discuss about Brexit as the UK is now committed to some form of it - depending on negotiations.

No-one knows or can plan for how these turn out, only claim to be better negotiator - with no evidence to back them up.

Well, May has been flirting with hard Brexit, but she is not really saying what that means.   In theory, it could mean that the UK does not follow customs regulations; however, this means that your cargo of whatsits bound for Prague, is going to be checked at every border, as it is not entered on any electronic database.    Is that what they mean?  I don't think there will be an answer to that.   It's more exciting  to vote for a blank cheque.

[wigginhall]

Actually, no deal sounds impossible.  How are you going to export anything or import anything from Europe, if you are not following customs regulations?  How are you going to fly an aircraft out of British airspace?   How are people in N. Ireland going to transport horses to race meetings?   There are many areas like this, where trade depends on agreements, which are then expressed via electronic communications.   

[jakswan]

Soft Brexit - Free trade deal
Hard Brexit - No trade deal
No Brexit - Stay in EU market

[Harrowby Hall]

Soft Brexit - Free trade deal
Hard Brexit - No trade deal
No Brexit - Stay in EU market

Purely for clarification - is this the same as:

Good deal - Free trade deal
Bad deal - No trade deal
No deal - Stay in EU?

Thus - No deal is better than a bad deal?

[jeremyp]

Purely for clarification - is this the same as:

Good deal - Free trade deal
Bad deal - No trade deal
No deal - Stay in EU?

Thus - No deal is better than a bad deal?

If that is how you are defining "no deal", it's the best option.

[ProfessorDavey]

Soft Brexit - Free trade deal
Hard Brexit - No trade deal
No Brexit - Stay in EU market

You are redefining things.

At the time of the referendum the clearly established definitions were:

Soft Brexit: Leave the EU but remain a member of the single market/customs union
Hard Brexit: Leave the EU and the single market/customs union

To suggest that leaving the single market and customs union could be 'soft brexit' is mission creep of the highest order. If we leave the single market and customs union that is hard brexit.

[Sassy]

Checking the terminally ill to see if they're fit for work, surely helps the NHS, as some of them inevitably die in the process, so that's one less bed in the hospital, I call that win/win.   <sarcasm smiley>

It was never about check to see if fit for work.. It was about depriving them of a means to live before they died so they died living on next to nothing.
Does life become less than economy?

[Sassy]

Is right or wrong really about a point of view?

[torridon]

from an LSE blog :

the general election is a distraction from the danger of the failure of brexit negotiations
...
It is already clear from the Conservative manifesto that Mrs May’s government will seek what has traditionally been called a “hard Brexit.” If it ends up achieving a “hard Brexit” that has not even been negotiated with our partners, then the blow to confidence for financial markets and economic decision-makers would be immense, and might well serve to bring forward the timetable of eventual economic disruption universally predicted by economists as a consequence of Brexit. There is within the financial and business community of the United Kingdom a considerable measure of suppressed anxiety about the course that Brexit is taking. By a mixture of reassurance and threat, the government has managed until now to keep a lid on this rising disquiet. The looming likelihood of an unnegotiated Brexit could well provide the final straw for this disquiet to become generalized and public, with unpredictable consequences for the political economy of the United Kingdom.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/06/01/the-general-election-is-a-distraction-from-the-danger-of-the-failure-of-brexit-negotiations/

[jakswan]

Purely for clarification - is this the same as:

Good deal - Free trade deal
Bad deal - No trade deal
No deal - Stay in EU?

Thus - No deal is better than a bad deal?

Good deal - Free trade deal
Bad Deal - Pay £200 billion a year for free trade, no rights for ex-pats living in EU, freedom of movement into UK not into EU, EU Customs preventing UK doing deals elsewhere,
No Deal - Be like most of the other countries in the World.

[jakswan]

You are redefining things.

At the time of the referendum the clearly established definitions were:

Soft Brexit: Leave the EU but remain a member of the single market/customs union
Hard Brexit: Leave the EU and the single market/customs union

To suggest that leaving the single market and customs union could be 'soft brexit' is mission creep of the highest order. If we leave the single market and customs union that is hard brexit.

Cameron, Osbourne, Johnson, Gove all said vote to leave we leave the single market, you are wrong.

[ProfessorDavey]

Cameron, Osbourne, Johnson, Gove all said vote to leave we leave the single market, you are wrong.

That's is irrelevant to the point I was making.

Before the referendum it was accepted that the definition of a soft brexit was one where the UK left the EU but remained in the single market and/or customs union. The definition of hard brexit being where the UK left the EU and the single market and customs union.

You are redefining with a downwards spiral mission creep. I am talking about definitions, not whether those you mention implied we would remain or leave the single market.

Worth reiterating yet again that the official leave campaign's official manifesto pledged that we would still be part of the 'free trade zone extending from Iceland to the Russian border' (i.e. the single market/customs union). They clearly stated we would remain part of the single market - as with so many other things they lied.

[jakswan]

That's is irrelevant to the point I was making.

Before the referendum it was accepted that the definition of a soft brexit was one where the UK left the EU but remained in the single market and/or customs union. The definition of hard brexit being where the UK left the EU and the single market and customs union.

You are redefining with a downwards spiral mission creep. I am talking about definitions, not whether those you mention implied we would remain or leave the single market.

Worth reiterating yet again that the official leave campaign's official manifesto pledged that we would still be part of the 'free trade zone extending from Iceland to the Russian border' (i.e. the single market/customs union). They clearly stated we would remain part of the single market - as with so many other things they lied.

Sigh again, yes if UK does a free trade deal then a free trade zone will exist yaddah, yaddah, lets not do this again.

[ProfessorDavey]

Sigh again, yes if UK does a free trade deal then a free trade zone will exist yaddah, yaddah, lets not do this again.

Nope - wrong.

If we create a new free trade zone then we cannot still be part of something that were were part of prior to brexit - as it was a new entity. Secondly agreeing a bilateral trade deal does not create a free trade zone - that's non-sense or we would conclude that there is a free trade zone involving the EU and South Korea - that's non-sense, there is a free trade agreement, there isn't a free trade zone.

The official leave campaign's official manifesto was clear - we are part of something now (i.e. it currently exists) and we will still be part of it after we leave the EU (i.e. we will remain part of the thing that currently exists). No other interpretation is possible.

So what therefore is the free trade zone that currently exists (and extends from Iceland to the Russian border), that we will remain part of after brexit. Well the only possibility is the single market/customs union.

[jakswan]

Nope - wrong.

If we create a new free trade zone then we cannot still be part of something that were were part of prior to brexit - as it was a new entity. Secondly agreeing a bilateral trade deal does not create a free trade zone - that's non-sense or we would conclude that there is a free trade zone involving the EU and South Korea - that's non-sense, there is a free trade agreement, there isn't a free trade zone.

The official leave campaign's official manifesto was clear - we are part of something now (i.e. it currently exists) and we will still be part of it after we leave the EU (i.e. we will remain part of the thing that currently exists). No other interpretation is possible.

So what therefore is the free trade zone that currently exists (and extends from Iceland to the Russian border), that we will remain part of after brexit. Well the only possibility is the single market/customs union.

Disagree but not going to do the same debate over and over.

[ProfessorDavey]

Disagree but not going to do the same debate over and over.

How can you disagree:

How can you 'still be part' of something after some future point unless that thing already exists and your are already part of it. You can't.

[jakswan]

How can you disagree:

How can you 'still be part' of something after some future point unless that thing already exists and your are already part of it. You can't.

What exactly are you attempting to get out of this? The LibDems won't be winning seats mainly because much of the the UK population see's the issue as settled. Corbyn isn't a fan of the EU, its done, you lost, let it go.

[wigginhall]

Just been reading Richard North's blog - he makes several interesting points.  One, that the UK political class don't have the capacity to deal with Brexit; two, that it's therefore better to 'park' somewhere and take time over it; three, that something like EEA is a reasonable parking place.  Four, that  the Ultras will resist.   But surely the election has demolished hard Brexit?

http://eureferendum.com/

[Aruntraveller]

Interesting article:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/14/road-to-brexit-is-paved-with-amusement-danish-and-brave-faces-british


'There are small nations and there are countries that have not yet realized they are small nations'

[wigginhall]

Times front page has a story that Hammond favours the customs union.   I don't know whether that means the EU one, or a bespoke one, but it seems to show that the impenetrable wall of Brexit silence is beginning to break.   It's also said that May can't sack him now.   I wonder if she is like the medieval monarch, imprisoned by her barons, in post, but not in power.   Surreal.  Not giving Times link, as behind a paywall.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-philip-hammond-customs-union-eu-uk-stay-theresa-may-tories-chancellor-a7788786.html

[ProfessorDavey]

Times front page has a story that Hammond favours the customs union.   I don't know whether that means the EU one, or a bespoke one, but it seems to show that the impenetrable wall of Brexit silence is beginning to break.   It's also said that May can't sack him now.   I wonder if she is like the medieval monarch, imprisoned by her barons, in post, but not in power.   Surreal.  Not giving Times link, as behind a paywall.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-philip-hammond-customs-union-eu-uk-stay-theresa-may-tories-chancellor-a7788786.html

I see this morning that the UK has accepted the EU's position that trade talks can only happen once all other matters are sorted - no parallel discussions.

I suspect this may be a prelude to the government putting forward an 'interim' uber-soft EEA brexit to avoid a cliff edge as we crash out of the EU in less then 2 years, way before any trade deal could possibly be completed.

They will sell this as only 'interim', but I suspect no-one will actually have the appetite to move beyond it and once we are out of the EU the 'will of the people' will have been delivered and most of the public (except the extreme right) will move on.

[ProfessorDavey]

I see this morning that the UK has accepted the EU's position that trade talks can only happen once all other matters are sorted - no parallel discussions.

I suspect this may be a prelude to the government putting forward an 'interim' uber-soft EEA brexit to avoid a cliff edge as we crash out of the EU in less then 2 years, way before any trade deal could possibly be completed.

They will sell this as only 'interim', but I suspect no-one will actually have the appetite to move beyond it and once we are out of the EU the 'will of the people' will have been delivered and most of the public (except the extreme right) will move on.

Looks too that the EU will be going for maximum transparency over the process - in other words putting full details into the public domain to prevent it appearing that secret deals are being struck in the equivalent of smoke filled rooms.

[Nearly Sane]

And some more mirroring


http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/british-prime-minister-may-stumbles-into-brexit-talks-a-1152469.html

[Aruntraveller]

And some more mirroring


http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/british-prime-minister-may-stumbles-into-brexit-talks-a-1152469.html

Excellent, if ultimately very depressing article.

[Rhiannon]

Does anyone think Brexit will be reversed?