Brexit - the next steps

[jakswan]

We are the soundbite generation

Yes you are.

[Jack Knave]

What an appalling generalisation. I have know a few MPs personally (of more than one party) plus a fair number of local politicians - county and district councillors.

While I might not have agreed with all on their political views in every case they were exceptionally hard working and were genuinely motivated by wanting to make a difference to people. I have never seen any dishonesty - I thought some were wrong-headed for sure at times - but dishonest, nope.

JK - do you actually personally know any politicians, e.g. MPs, MEPs, local councillors?

All you have to do is view history to see that it is true in many cases, especially those at the top.

[Jack Knave]

The only way there can be an early general election if if the government votes in favour of a vote of no confidence in itself (which would be the bizarrest of situations). Alternatively it would need to repeal the fixed term parliament act, which could be thwarted by a few MPs concerned about their majorities voting against.

Not really. If the government can't get its way and is being blocked they have at present, I think, a 42% polling and Labour have 25%. It would pay them to go to the country, who 17 million voted for Brexit and ask them for their support to carryout their Brexit plan. For most of the PLP, who hate Corbyn, they could get a GE in before the reselections are carried out and then use the thrashing Labour will get to oust Corbyn out and start to rebuild.

[ProfessorDavey]

All you have to do is view history to see that it is true in many cases, especially those at the top.

I disagree that it is true in many cases, I would however agree that it is true in a very small minority of cases - certainly in the UK.

I note that you have failed to answer my question, so I will ask it again:

JK - do you actually personally know any politicians, e.g. MPs, MEPs, local councillors?

[Jack Knave]

That would include politicians like Trump and Farage then?

Farage isn't a politician he is a single issue movement campaigner. That's why he is pretty much glad to be free of UKIP - though he will carry on with the anti-EU campaign where ever it is needed. Trump isn't a politician he is a business man just using the political arena for his own playground.

[ProfessorDavey]

Not really. If the government can't get its way and is being blocked they have at present, I think, a 42% polling and Labour have 25%. It would pay them to go to the country, who 17 million voted for Brexit and ask them for their support to carryout their Brexit plan. For most of the PLP, who hate Corbyn, they could get a GE in before the reselections are carried out and then use the thrashing Labour will get to oust Corbyn out and start to rebuild.

I don't think you understand - a few years ago the coalition government brought in the Fixed Term Parliament Act - this prevents a Prime Minister from 'going to the country' early.

The only away for this to happen is for the government to lose a vote of no confidence, but unless the opposition table one, this would effectively require May to trigger a vote of no confidence in herself and then get her own MPs to vote that they have no confidence in the government.

The only other alternative would be for the FTPA to be repealed, but that would require something to be put in its place, and that won't happen quickly.

I agree that were May to be able to 'go to the country' she'd likely (although who can predict in this topsy turvy current world) win an increased majority, but the point is she can't, or certainly can't easily in the manner in which PMs used to simply call an early general election.

[Jack Knave]

I disagree that it is true in many cases, I would however agree that it is true in a very small minority of cases - certainly in the UK.

I note that you have failed to answer my question, so I will ask it again:

JK - do you actually personally know any politicians, e.g. MPs, MEPs, local councillors?

That is a non sequitur. I have heard politicians talk for many, many years hearing them say things they know are lies but they have to say them because of the requirement of following the party line.

[Jack Knave]

I don't think you understand - a few years ago the coalition government brought in the Fixed Term Parliament Act - this prevents a Prime Minister from 'going to the country' early.

The only away for this to happen is for the government to lose a vote of no confidence, but unless the opposition table one, this would effectively require May to trigger a vote of no confidence in herself and then get her own MPs to vote that they have no confidence in the government.

The only other alternative would be for the FTPA to be repealed, but that would require something to be put in its place, and that won't happen quickly.

I agree that were May to be able to 'go to the country' she'd likely (although who can predict in this topsy turvy current world) win an increased majority, but the point is she can't, or certainly can't easily in the manner in which PMs used to simply call an early general election.

I know all about the FTPA.

You forget about Tim Farron, and the SNP. Just a selection of nutters who could trigger a vote of no confidence out of hubris. The LibDems have much to gain from an early GE as they would hope to gain many seats from a pro-EU stance, considering they would be coming from a low base that has decimate them.

[ProfessorDavey]

I know all about the FTPA.

You forget about Tim Farron, and the SNP. Just a selection of nutters who could trigger a vote of no confidence out of hubris. The LibDems have much to gain from an early GE as they would hope to gain many seats from a pro-EU stance, considering they would be coming from a low base that has decimate them.

Sure the LidDems or SNP could trigger a vote of no confidence, but it couldn't be carried unless the Tories voted in favour of having no confidence in themselves (or at the very least abstained) as they have a majority in parliament.

And don't forget that there are plenty of tories comfortable in their positions until 2020 - are they really going to risk a possibly general election where they might be out of a job 3 years early.

In tactical terms you also need to factor in the proposed reduction in seat numbers and boundary changes - these are massively beneficial to the tories, but a snap general election would be fought on the old boundaries, running the risk that (for a second parliament in a row) the changes to seat numbers etc, that the tories so desperately want, will be kicked into the long grass.

More complicated than I think you appreciate.

[jakswan]

Sure the LidDems or SNP could trigger a vote of no confidence, but it couldn't be carried unless the Tories voted in favour of having no confidence in themselves (or at the very least abstained) as they have a majority in parliament.

And don't forget that there are plenty of tories comfortable in their positions until 2020 - are they really going to risk a possibly general election where they might be out of a job 3 years early.

In tactical terms you also need to factor in the proposed reduction in seat numbers and boundary changes - these are massively beneficial to the tories, but a snap general election would be fought on the old boundaries, running the risk that (for a second parliament in a row) the changes to seat numbers etc, that the tories so desperately want, will be kicked into the long grass.

More complicated than I think you appreciate.

If May thinks she can't run government with the majority she has then another GE is likely. Its more complicated than it was but still entirely possible.

[ProfessorDavey]

If May thinks she can't run government with the majority she has then another GE is likely. Its more complicated than it was but still entirely possible.

It's more than complicated. Explain please her routes to calling a general election before May 2020, the date decreed by the FTPA. Another 'legacy' from Cameron. The FTPA has no effective way out of parliamentary gridlock.

[ProfessorDavey]

If May thinks she can't run government with the majority she has then another GE is likely. Its more complicated than it was but still entirely possible.

To clarify:

Under the FTPA there are only two ways in which an early general election can be called. Verbatim:

'Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:

If the House of Commons resolves "That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government", an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves "That this House has confidence in Her Majesty's Government". This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election".

So in a situation where May wants an early election, but other parties don't (likely the current situation), the only possibility os for the the government to vote no confidence in itself - good luck with that.

[jakswan]

So in a situation where May wants an early election, but other parties don't (likely the current situation), the only possibility os for the the government to vote no confidence in itself - good luck with that.

Labour are in election footing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37413848

LibDems would jump at the chance.

Tories will be whipped.

As ever you are confusing your opinion with facts. Again, it is my opinion that if May thinks she can't run a government with her current majority she will go for another GE and in my opinion get one.

[jeremyp]

You are not against them when they are rigged? 

That's absolutely right. Preventing the free movement of labour is rigging the market. And he's in favour of preventing the free movement of labour.

[jeremyp]

Labour are in election footing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37413848

LibDems would jump at the chance.

Tories will be whipped.

As ever you are confusing your opinion with facts. Again, it is my opinion that if May thinks she can't run a government with her current majority she will go for another GE and in my opinion get one.

How would she do it without breaking the law?

[jeremyp]

Here is some good news:

EU negotiators will offer Brits an individual opt-in to remain EU citizens

It looks like I may not have to lose my rights as a citizen of the EU after all.

[Jack Knave]

Sure the LidDems or SNP could trigger a vote of no confidence, but it couldn't be carried unless the Tories voted in favour of having no confidence in themselves (or at the very least abstained) as they have a majority in parliament.

And don't forget that there are plenty of tories comfortable in their positions until 2020 - are they really going to risk a possibly general election where they might be out of a job 3 years early.

In tactical terms you also need to factor in the proposed reduction in seat numbers and boundary changes - these are massively beneficial to the tories, but a snap general election would be fought on the old boundaries, running the risk that (for a second parliament in a row) the changes to seat numbers etc, that the tories so desperately want, will be kicked into the long grass.

More complicated than I think you appreciate.

If the Tories think they are going to win then these changes to MP numbers is besides the point. If they think they are going to get a bigger majority, and at the moment it is a mere 10, then they will surely welcome it.

What you are missing is the log jam this Brexit stuff is going to cause for the government and the vehement opposition that Brexit has with some. Once the government is plainly seen to be stumbling on this the vultures will surely swoop in for the kill. As the LibDems hubris is stupid enough to make them think that their anti-Brexit stance will get them enough votes to bring the Tory government down then we will have a contest on our hands.

[Jack Knave]

It's more than complicated. Explain please her routes to calling a general election before May 2020, the date decreed by the FTPA. Another 'legacy' from Cameron. The FTPA has no effective way out of parliamentary gridlock.

As you said the Tories could abstain if they think they are going to increase their majority; with Labour floundering and with potentially 17 million pro Brexit voters.

[Jack Knave]

That's absolutely right. Preventing the free movement of labour is rigging the market. And he's in favour of preventing the free movement of labour.

I actually corrected that.

So you are in favour of companies trashing the environment to make a profit and not having legislation to stop this as this would be rigging the market. The fact is all countries of sensible mind and body have immigration controls.

[ProfessorDavey]

As you said the Tories could abstain if they think they are going to increase their majority; with Labour floundering and with potentially 17 million pro Brexit voters.

But the vote of no confidence would only be passed if someone votes in favour - so the tories abstaining isn't enough unless other parties chose to vote for it - and why would they if they felt they'd lose seats.

Also remember that it is individual MPs who would have to vote - those MPs know that they have a job for another 3.5 years. Why would they risk an election when they could be out of a job in weeks.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I know all about the FTPA.

You forget about Tim Farron, and the SNP. Just a selection of nutters who could trigger a vote of no confidence out of hubris. The LibDems have much to gain from an early GE as they would hope to gain many seats from a pro-EU stance, considering they would be coming from a low base that has decimate them.

A right leaning brexiteer is a fine one to be giving lectures on hubris Jack.

[jakswan]

How would she do it without breaking the law?

She says running a govt with this majority is untenable and calls for a vote of no confidence. What law gets broken?

[jeremyp]

She says running a govt with this majority is untenable and calls for a vote of no confidence. What law gets broken?

The government with it's absolute majority would have to lose the vote. It would have to vote against itself.

[ProfessorDavey]

The government with it's absolute majority would have to lose the vote. It would have to vote against itself.

Exactly.

And don't forget that turkeys don't vote for Christmas. Any MP who isn't absolutely certainly they'd win won't go near the notion of potentially voting themselves out of a job.

Now any general election held right now would end up de facto as a second referendum on brexit - it would really be the only issue. So any MP whose views on brexit don't align with their constituents is going to be feeling very nervous about a vote. And that includes a mighty lot of Tories. We've already seen Zac Goldsmith licked out, effectively for being anti brexit - that will focus a lot of minds.

So lets take a few example - in my own constituency we have a pro-brexit MP, yet we voted over 70% for remain. The LibDems have always been very high profile. Our MP could easily lose against an overtly pro-remain LibDem so she isn't going to want to go near a general election any time soon. And there are plenty of similar tories, particularly in the home counties in a similar position.

And the reverse is true - lets not forget that the majority of tory MPs are pro-remain - and plenty of them will be representing constituencies that voted leave. They'd be deeply vulnerable to UKIP who'd campaign that they are the only party really to represent the brexiters.

And don't forget too that MPs are people, with mortgages to pay - are they really going to risk losing their jobs in a few weeks rather than be assured of at least 3 and a half years further, and critically they'd think that by 2020 the brexit issue will be settled and people will move on from whether their MP's views on brexit aligned with their own or not.

[jeremyp]

Exactly.

And don't forget that turkeys don't vote for Christmas. Any MP who isn't absolutely certainly they'd win won't go near the notion of potentially voting themselves out of a job.

Now any general election held right now would end up de facto as a second referendum on brexit - it would really be the only issue. So any MP whose views on brexit don't align with their constituents is going to be feeling very nervous about a vote. And that includes a mighty lot of Tories. We've already seen Zac Goldsmith licked out, effectively for being anti brexit - that will focus a lot of minds.

So lets take a few example - in my own constituency we have a pro-brexit MP, yet we voted over 70% for remain. The LibDems have always been very high profile. Our MP could easily lose against an overtly pro-remain LibDem so she isn't going to want to go near a general election any time soon. And there are plenty of similar tories, particularly in the home counties in a similar position.

And the reverse is true - lets not forget that the majority of tory MPs are pro-remain - and plenty of them will be representing constituencies that voted leave. They'd be deeply vulnerable to UKIP who'd campaign that they are the only party really to represent the brexiters.

And don't forget too that MPs are people, with mortgages to pay - are they really going to risk losing their jobs in a few weeks rather than be assured of at least 3 and a half years further, and critically they'd think that by 2020 the brexit issue will be settled and people will move on from whether their MP's views on brexit aligned with their own or not.

It's not just the Tories either. Apart from their current showing in the opinion polls, many Labour MPs have constituencies in pro-Remain areas. Given Richmond, any MP in a pro Remain constituency has to be wondering how they will fare against the Lib Dems (in England - in Scotland, the SNP will probably just get the full house).