Brexit - the next steps

[Harrowby Hall]

This map starkly illustrates what we will lose - once we leave the EU everything will turn white:

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-trade-map/

The EU already has deals with most of the world.

I am constantly puzzled by the stance taken by the present government. Even the most hard-bitten Brexiteer must be aware of  facts like this. It is as though sensible, practical government, government in the best interests of the nation, is sacrificed in favour of some impossible dream. In consequence of an ill-defined, poorly prepared referendum with an ambiguous result, Theresa May appears to be a latter-day Don Quixote engaged in a hairy chest competition with the shade of Margaret Thatcher.

The potential disaster for the United Kingdom is such that May - together with Davies, Johnson, Gove, Fox and company look like supplanting poor Guy Fawkes (who was merely the hired hand) on top of bonfires.

Sorry for the mixed metaphors but ...

[torridon]

The Maltese president of the European Council starting to think Brexit is not going to happen :

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/malta-prime-minister-brexit-not-happen-uk-leave-eu-joseph-muscat-european-council-a7864591.html

[Udayana]

At some point, it will be clear that it is unworkable - but will we have a government that admits this, backs down and agrees to remain in the single market?

[ProfessorDavey]

At some point, it will be clear that it is unworkable - but will we have a government that admits this, backs down and agrees to remain in the single market?

A transitional arrangement involving remaining in the single market that never progresses beyond that stage?

[Udayana]

Yes - but  even a transitional agreement needs to be made and it looks like an upfront payment covering existing commitments to EU institutions and projects will be required.

With three year transitional agreement in place maybe the electorate can confirm/reject a final deal in a general election.

[Nearly Sane]

Ooft!


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-conservatives-are-criminally-incompetent-zbnppmx92

[Rhiannon]

I hope to fuck we pull out and ask to stay. The rest of the EU can tell us to take a jump even if we do that of course.

[wigginhall]

Article in the Times by Parris, called 'Criminal incompetence of the Tories'.   Private grief I suppose, but not really private.  Painful reading really.   Are we really led by a bunch of clowns?  Better plough up the garden and grown spuds, or something.

https://behindthepaywallblog.wordpress.com/2017/07/29/the-conservatives-are-criminally-incompetent/

[Aruntraveller]

New Statesman article explaining why Remainers won't and shouldn't shut up:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/eurosceptics-whined-41-years-so-why-does-everyone-expect-remain-just

[Shaker]

New Statesman article explaining why Remainers won't and shouldn't shut up:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/07/eurosceptics-whined-41-years-so-why-does-everyone-expect-remain-just

The people have spoken, their word must be final. We are all Brexiteers now.

Well – to coin a phrase – fuck that.

Incredible how much naked contempt for democracy Brexit has brought out from under a stone.

[Rhiannon]

Well, yes. Starting with naked lying and deceit that some of the electorate believed.

[Shaker]

Well, yes. Starting with naked lying and deceit that some of the electorate believed.

... and ending with: "The people have spoken [...] fuck that."

[Rhiannon]

... and ending with: "The people have spoken [...] fuck that."

Well no, that's not the end.

Aside from that, I'd argue that the people can't speak if the decision over the vote that they cast was founded on lie after lie after lie, peddled by politicians who weren't interested in the welfare of the UK or the EU so much as in their own political ambitions.

Fuck that indeed.

[Shaker]

Well no, that's not the end.

Elledgedly it is.

[Rhiannon]

Elledgedly it is.

It can't be. We don't know what the deal is yet. It can't end with a vote for something that the majority won't accept.

There's no more billions for the NHS. We know that. Sterling's tanked. Supposing the deal is we pay billions, we can't travel to Europe without visas, the security and intelligence sharing ends, EU members here can stay, the EU regeneration money for the north goes, environmental protection flies out the window, animal welfare is dictated by US agribusiness.

Is that what Brexiterrs voted for?

[Shaker]

It can't be. We don't know what the deal is yet. It can't end with a vote for something that the majority won't accept.

There's no more billions for the NHS. We know that. Sterling's tanked. Supposing the deal is we pay billions, we can't travel to Europe without visas, the security and intelligence sharing ends, EU members here can stay, the EU regeneration money for the north goes, environmental protection flies out the window, animal welfare is dictated by US agribusiness.

Is that what Brexiterrs voted for?

If we've learnt anything at all from Brexit it's that people had a multiplicity of reasons for voting as they did (Leave and Remain alike), but there was only one question on the ballot paper so it has to come down to that.

[Rhiannon]

If we've learnt anything at all from Brexit it's that people had a multiplicity of reasons for voting as they did (Leave and Remain alike), but there was only one question on the ballot paper so it has to come down to that.

So have a referendum on the deal offered. It can't hurt.

I've heard a lot of people say that they regret voting leave. Put that one to the test.

[Shaker]

So have a referendum on the deal offered. It can't hurt.

I've heard a lot of people say that they regret voting leave. Put that one to the test.

... and then you stack more faggots on the flames of the argument that on the exceedingly rare occasions that populace engage in direct as opposed to representative democracy, if they come up with a result considered wrong the question will be asked again and again and again and again until they answer differently.

To people who already argue this (in relation to Ireland, for example) it's not exactly going to convince them of the blandishments of EU membership.

[Nearly Sane]

... and then you stack more faggots on the flames of the argument that on the exceedingly rare occasions that populace engage in direct as opposed to representative democracy, if they come up with a result considered wrong the question will be asked again and again and again and again until they answer differently.

To people who already argue this (in relation to Ireland, for example) it's not exactly going to convince them of the blandishments of EU membership.

The other aspect is I don't really get what the choice would be. Take this deal here, or what! Stay in as we were before? Surely that won't be achievable unless it's agreed up front before the referendum with all 27 other states? Or go back for a negotiation to stay? Followed by another referendum? Or fall out into WTO rules?

[Rhiannon]

The other aspect is I don't really get what the choice would be. Take this deal here, or what! Stay in as we were before? Surely that won't be achievable unless it's agreed up front before the referendum with all 27 other states? Or go back for a negotiation to stay? Followed by another referendum? Or fall out into WTO rules?

Fair point, but what do we do? Accept we are fucked?

[Nearly Sane]

I think there is a chance of the negotiations collapsing, or indeed the Tory party going full Game of Thrones again. I think currently all that can be done is lobby MPs etc who are at least willing to speak out for a better deal, or rather the least worst deal possible.

[Rhiannon]

I think there is a chance of the negotiations collapsing, or indeed the Tory party going full Game of Thrones again. I think currently all that can be done is lobby MPs etc who are at least willing to speak out for a better deal, or rather the least worst deal possible.

Right.

It's accept we're fucked really, isn't it?

[Nearly Sane]

Right.

It's accept we're fucked really, isn't it?

in the short term, yep. I am not convinced the longer term will be much different, if we get a sensible deal, and we get some leadership beyond imporing chlorinated chicken and exporting some nice jams, but as ever in the long run we are all dead.

[Rhiannon]

in the short term, yep. I am not convinced the longer term will be much different, if we get a sensible deal, and we get some leadership beyond imporing chlorinated chicken and exporting some nice jams, but as ever in the long run we are all dead.

"If we get some leadership..."

You aren't helping, you know.

[Nearly Sane]

"If we get some leadership..."

You aren't helping, you know.

Then permit me to make it worse. Leadership would need some form of decision that people could at least work under with some form of clarity. The current govt conspicuously lack that, and the Labour Party would split if it tried to provide some form of unofficial national unity support. The rest are stuck in opposition,or disarray, of disarrayed opposition. And the white walkers are coming