Brexit - the next steps

[Udayana]

...
Well, yes it is. Otherwise - as happened in Ireland with the Treaty of Lisbon - people tend to form the opinion that the powers-that-be will simply keep re-running a vote until they get the result that they want and not the result that the people deliver. A tactic which isn't likely to inspire confidence if you have even a vague interest in convincing people of your democratic credentials.
...

Don't think there was anything wrong with that. Eire rejected the treaty, so the treaty was changed and then accepted on a new vote.  Sure, they should/could have held on, along with Denmark and the Netherlands and forced a more significant change - but at least they did have that option.

With the brexit vote, it would still be democratic to have a vote on the proposed final agreement, to ensure that the majority do get what they wanted and voted for. I suspect the vote would still be to leap from the cliff edge. 

My current best case option is for the govt to negotiate a long transition period with the softest possible final break, with no further votes on the issue.

 

[Sebastian Toe]

No, but only because an amendment was introduced to the effect that 40% of the electoral turn out was required to pass any proposal. Actual turnout was 64% making 32.9% of the electorate so it was defeated.

Since there was no such clause or stipulation in the Brexit referendum and a simple majority - not a supermajority - was all that was required (and achieved) I'm not seeing what point you think you're making.

Narrow doesn't come into it. A majority is a majority

The trouble is that this fantasy Jackanory scenario relies upon a 100% turnout of the electorate (everybody who can vote does actually vote), something never in reality seen and only ever entertained in the fevered masturbatory dreams of totalitarian dictators.

Votes are counted on the basis of who has actually turned out to vote, not who might have done, could have done if people were smart like me and not knuckle-dragging Sun-reading thicky thicko oiks

I was wondering what point you were making?

[Shaker]

I was wondering what point you were making?

That the 1979 Scotlan referendum doesn't seem to have been used as an example with any particular reason in mind, since there's no basis for comparison with the Brexit referendum.

[Sebastian Toe]

That the 1979 Scotlan referendum doesn't seem to have been used as an example with any particular reason in mind, since there's no basis for comparison with the Brexit referendum.

I was pointing out that a majority doesnt always mean that the majority 'wins'.

[Shaker]

I was pointing out that a majority doesnt always mean that the majority 'wins'.

Not when you set conditions to make this the case, which wasn't the case with the Brexit referendum. Much to the annoyance of some, but that's their problem.

[Sebastian Toe]

Not when you set conditions to make this the case, which wasn't the case with the Brexit referendum. Much to the annoyance of some, but that's their problem.

Your use of 'are counted' as opposed to perhaps 'were counted' had led me to think that you were talking in general about referenda.

[Spud]

Interesting that the EU are currently negotiating a free trade deal with Japan. Why Japan but not the UK?

[Udayana]

They want the exit agreement settled before any trade discussions.

[Nearly Sane]

They want the exit agreement settled before any trade discussions.

which is only sensible. Note the govt were, or should have been aware, that this was going to be the approach.

[Spud]

But the EU have already said there can't be free trade unless the uk remains in the single market, agreeing to free movement of people

[Nearly Sane]

But the EU have already said there can't be free trade unless the uk remains in the single market, agreeing to free movement of people

Totally at a loss as to your use of 'but' here. Oh, and BTW  the deal with Japan is a trade deal not a free trade deal.

[jeremyp]

But the EU have already said there can't be free trade unless the uk remains in the single market, agreeing to free movement of people

If we have free trade with the EU, it will be essential that the UK allows free movement of labour, otherwise we will not be able to compete with the EU on what would be a level playing field.

[wigginhall]

There just seems to be confusion to me.  The govt is talking of frictionless trade with the EU, yet there are also signs of a hard Brexit - the two are incompatible, surely.   I sense they are out of their depth.   A hard Brexit could mean that UK planes could not take off, trucks would be checked at all borders, food and animals would be inspected, and so on.   This sounds like economic ruin for some companies, and a shortage of food.     

[ProfessorDavey]

There just seems to be confusion to me.  The govt is talking of frictionless trade with the EU, yet there are also signs of a hard Brexit - the two are incompatible, surely.   I sense they are out of their depth.   A hard Brexit could mean that UK planes could not take off, trucks would be checked at all borders, food and animals would be inspected, and so on.   This sounds like economic ruin for some companies, and a shortage of food.   

Exactly - frictionless trade means no tariffs, no customs checks, exactly the same regulatory framework on both sides of the border so you don't need different products of packaging for different markets. It also mean the ability to access skills in a 'frictionless' manner across that border. There is no frictionless trade if you are unable to access expertise and consultancies from Europe in exactly the same manner as in the UK, then there is no frictionless trade.

[Spud]

I still don't see why Japan can have more or less free trade with the EU but the UK can't?

[wigginhall]

I still don't see why Japan can have more or less free trade with the EU but the UK can't?

Who is saying that the UK can't?  I suppose the hard Brexit lot want no deal at all, which sounds suicidal.   Everybody else seems to want some kind of deal.

[ProfessorDavey]

I still don't see why Japan can have more or less free trade with the EU but the UK can't?

The trade deal between Japan and the EU doesn't come close to the one we currently enjoy with the EU as an EU member.

It doesn't abolish tariffs on all good, and is relatively limited in terms of free trade on services. Were we to end up with a deal with the EU similar to that between the EU and Japan we'd be in big trouble as our economy is hit with signifiant barriers and costs to trade.

What you don't seem to realise is that the EU/Japan deal is better than what came previously, in other words a positive step forward. If we had a similar deal with the EU is would be massively worse than the situation we currently have, on other words a massive step backwards.

[jeremyp]

The trade deal between Japan and the EU doesn't come close to the one we currently enjoy with the EU as an EU member.

It doesn't abolish tariffs on all good, and is relatively limited in terms of free trade on services. Were we to end up with a deal with the EU similar to that between the EU and Japan we'd be in big trouble as our economy is hit with signifiant barriers and costs to trade.

What you don't seem to realise is that the EU/Japan deal is better than what came previously, in other words a positive step forward. If we had a similar deal with the EU is would be massively worse than the situation we currently have, on other words a massive step backwards.

Not only that, but we would also need to do a deal with Japan.

The EU has trade deals with several other countries, to which we will no longer be party. Brexiteers dismiss the impact of loss of trade with the EU saying we only do 40% of our trade with the EU. This is true, but once you add in true with all of the EU's trading partners, it's more than 60%.

[ProfessorDavey]

Not only that, but we would also need to do a deal with Japan.

The EU has trade deals with several other countries, to which we will no longer be party. Brexiteers dismiss the impact of loss of trade with the EU saying we only do 40% of our trade with the EU. This is true, but once you add in true with all of the EU's trading partners, it's more than 60%.

The EU actually has deals in place or currently being negotiated with most of the world. See this map:

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149622.pdf

All this will be lost what we leave and we will need to start from scratch.

[Rhiannon]

And will have to agree to what anyone else asks. Lower environmental and welfare standards for example. We'll be in no position to negotiate.

[ProfessorDavey]

So Brexit effectively delayed until 2021.

Makes the need for a referendum on the actual deal even more compelling as by the time we get to that stage it will be 5 years from the first referendum (which had a different question). In the UK democratically we effectively 'time out' a mandate for change after 5 years. That's why we have an election every 5 years.

[Harrowby Hall]

There are rumours that, so displeased is he with the direction that "Brexit" appears to be going, Farage may rise from the undead to ensure the continued purity of his message.

I suspect that "no deal is better than a bad deal" will be interpreted as "no deal" means staying in the EU.

The right to make our own laws appears to be to receive EU legislation and then repackage it as an Parliamentary Bill and take on the ponderous journey which turn it into an Act of Parliament.

[wigginhall]

A surprising lack of detail in May's speech, especially on the 3 outstanding issues, EU citizens, the leaving bill, and Ireland.   Some of the more paranoid are saying that this is deliberate, and she intends to stall the negotiations and claim that it's the EU's fault.  And then what?  The next step would be to walk out.

But it could also be for the Tory conference - May will be presented as the fierce patriot who went to foreign lands and told them what for.   Err, yes, please can we have two more years, as we have been busy not preparing for the last 15 months?

[jeremyp]

I'm fairly convinced that Theresa May is fucking this up deliberately so that we can have a good excuse to bury the referendum and stay in.

I've got to go back to Brussels to work for the European Commission at the beginning of October. It's going to be so depressing literally watching people of a number of different nationalities all working together to make a better Europe when we are just running away.

[Harrowby Hall]

Delightful moment in The News Quiz on Radio 4 this weekend ...

Jeremy Hardy talking about Theresa May:

... not only is she incredibly ambitious and scheming and calculating ...

       ... but she's really bad at it.