Brexit - the next steps

[Rhiannon]

I wonder if Jeremy's right. Could May turn around and say that the cost to the country would be too great? The referendum isn't binding.

[Gordon]

I wonder if Jeremy's right. Could May turn around and say that the cost to the country would be too great? The referendum isn't binding.

We can only hope so, since even those pro-Brexit must be worried about both the competence of those involved and that the in-fighting within the Tory party seems to be an increasingly influential factor in how the the UK is approaching these negotiations: seems to me it is becoming more and more about what the Tory Euro-haters will be prepared to accept.

[Nearly Sane]

Ibthink any idea of a cunning plan beyond the personal ambitions of various Tories here is as likely as Boris Johnson winning the humblest person of the year competition.



It doesn't appear to me that May would have any chance of a complete no to Brexit without the Torurs reenacting the history of Guelphs and Ghibellines.

[ProfessorDavey]

Ibthink any idea of a cunning plan beyond the personal ambitions of various Tories here is as likely as Boris Johnson winning the humblest person of the year competition.



It doesn't appear to me that May would have any chance of a complete no to Brexit without the Torurs reenacting the history of Guelphs and Ghibellines.

I suspect the key issue here is the Northern Ireland border. There now appears to be growing recognisant that you cannot have  frictionless border between NI and the Republic and between NI and the rest of the UK if you don't accept freedom of movement. The problem is that the DUP will not accept anything other than a frictionless border between NI and both the Republic and the rest of the UK. If an alternative is put on the table (which it must be if the UK wants to restrict freedom of movement) then surely the DUP/Tory deal is toast and May no longer has a majority.

[Rhiannon]

Election time then.

[wigginhall]

I see the Sunday Times is saying that the top Tories are head-butting each other to determine who succeeds May.   I'm still baffled by May's lack of contribution on the three hot topics - EU citizens, final payment, and Ireland.   This could be because nobody has a clue what to say, or that she is very reluctant to say anything that will upset the Ultras, or that could precipitate Boris to mount a leadership challenge, or that could upset the DUP, as Prof. D. said.

She must know that her Florence speech does not deal with the 3 topics, so why make it?   I'm torn between stupidity, ignorance, and Machiavellian plotting, either to crash out or to cancel Brexit.   But there is also just the wish to survive as leader, probably the most important idea in her mind. 

[Rhiannon]

There seems to be a kind of paralysis in that though. I must be leader and then...what? It's meaningless if leadership leads to nothing much at all.

[wigginhall]

There seems to be a kind of paralysis in that though. I must be leader and then...what? It's meaningless if leadership leads to nothing much at all.

She does seem paralyzed.  She can't just say to Barnier, OK, we'll pay X amount, we'll give EU citizens permanent status, and something on Ireland, as she will get hammered by the Ultras.   So soft Brexit is taboo, but she knows that hard Brexit would ruin the economy.   Better to cancel it, but she dare not suggest that.   In a way, an election might end the paralysis, but it might produce a new one, if Labour get in the same muddle.

[Rhiannon]

Yes, I don't see an election solving anything.

[wigginhall]

Although you do hear that Starmer is persona grata among some EU bods.    I don't think Corbyn understands it. 

[jeremyp]

Yes, I don't see an election solving anything.

If Diane Abbot on Any Questions was anything to go by, a Labour government would only be marginally better. They seem to be just as wedded to the idea that the referendum is set in stone but only because they are too frightened of the possible consequences of defying the marginal vote.

One thing you can say for the Tory Euro-sceptics, they were always prepared to put their principles ahead of the well being of the party.

[ProfessorDavey]

If Diane Abbot on Any Questions was anything to go by, a Labour government would only be marginally better. They seem to be just as wedded to the idea that the referendum is set in stone but only because they are too frightened of the possible consequences of defying the marginal vote.

I really don't understand the approach of Labour - poll after poll has shown that the vast majority of its current support comes from Remain voters, so there is very little to be lost, and much to be gained by aligning itself with Remain or the very softest of Brexit. Certainly they should be very clearly nailing on a referendum on the final Brexit deal, with remaining as the other option. Particularly now that we aren't going to get that final deal in place until 2021 which will be fully 5 years after the original referendum, which was actually asking a different question.

We don't ban the next general election because the 'people had spoken' five years previously so why should we on such a critical change which will affect us for generations.

[Rhiannon]

They have a party leader who is Eurosceptic. That's the line Labour will maintain.

[Rhiannon]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41378928

[Nearly Sane]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41378928

Don't mention Brexit, I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it.

[wigginhall]

I think both Tories and Labour are trying to avoid annoying either Leave voters or Remain voters.  Mrs May has the added incentive to avoid a leadership challenge, if she sounds too soft.   So the best thing is to not comment on the three outstanding issues to do with leaving.   She has probably been warned that her hard Brexit stance ruined the election, as too many people were scared by it.

You get the sense that Starmer hankers for EEA membership, but will the Leave voters hang, draw and quarter him?  Some of them also probably think that EEA is in the EU, partly because these things were never discussed before the referendum, and are rarely discussed now, for some bizarre reason.   I suppose we are meant to be ignorant.

[Nearly Sane]

I think both Tories and Labour are trying to avoid annoying either Leave voters or Remain voters.  Mrs May has the added incentive to avoid a leadership challenge, if she sounds too soft.   So the best thing is to not comment on the three outstanding issues to do with leaving.   She has probably been warned that her hard Brexit stance ruined the election, as too many people were scared by it.

You get the sense that Starmer hankers for EEA membership, but will the Leave voters hang, draw and quarter him?  Some of them also probably think that EEA is in the EU, partly because these things were never discussed before the referendum, and are rarely discussed now, for some bizarre reason.   I suppose we are meant to be ignorant.

In a sense, Labour are much more divided on this than the Tories. The letter arguing for membership of the Single Market is an indication of that - it could happen in the Tories but it would be signed by Ken Clarke and Anna Soubry.

[wigginhall]

I bet lots of politicians are wishing to hell that we had never got into this.  At the moment, Labour may be profiting from it, as the Tories own it.   But there is a general paralysis which is quite weird, and presumably, cannot continue, as M. Barnier is an impatient suitor.

[Outrider]

I really don't understand the approach of Labour - poll after poll has shown that the vast majority of its current support comes from Remain voters...

So they need to not alienate the rest if they're to pick up more votes and become electable.

O.

[ProfessorDavey]

So they need to not alienate the rest if they're to pick up more votes and become electable.

O.

But there are richer pickings amongst pro-remainers who could be attracted to Labour if they were more overtly soft brexit/open to referendum on final deal. Don't forget that 48% of the referendum voters (which is probably a greater % still of general election voters) are potentially looking for a political home, given that brexit is the defining issue for the foreseeable future.

Currently they are alienating their core - who are largely remainers.

[Outrider]

But there are richer pickings amongst pro-remainers who could be attracted to Labour if they were more overtly soft brexit/open to referendum on final deal. Don't forget that 48% of the referendum voters (which is probably a greater % still of general election voters) are potentially looking for a political home, given that brexit is the defining issue for the foreseeable future.

Currently they are alienating their core - who are largely remainers.

I'm not saying that their correctly calculating it, but I think they're deducing that they can pick up more votes from exit-voters who would traditionally have supported labour but have dallied with out-leaning Tories or UKIP than they can from the rest of the remain voters.

O.

[ProfessorDavey]

I'm not saying that their correctly calculating it, but I think they're deducing that they can pick up more votes from exit-voters who would traditionally have supported labour but have dallied with out-leaning Tories or UKIP than they can from the rest of the remain voters.

O.

According to Lord Ashcroft's extensive polling Labour's 2017 GE vote was more than 2:1 remain over leave voters. They aren't going to out-brexit the Tories or UKIP, so why try. The Tories and the LibDems (and UKIP, SNP, Plaid) at least have their strategy right - appealing to their predominant support on the remain/leave axis. Labour, uniquely have it wrong - coming over all wooly brexit while their core support favours remain.

[Nearly Sane]

According to Lord Ashcroft's extensive polling Labour's 2017 GE vote was more than 2:1 remain over leave voters. They aren't going to out-brexit the Tories or UKIP, so why try. The Tories and the LibDems (and UKIP, SNP, Plaid) at least have their strategy right - appealing to their predominant support on the remain/leave axis. Labour, uniquely have it wrong - coming over all wooly brexit while their core support favours remain.

That's a bit chicken and egg - surely what Labour has to do - more than most parties is appeal to a wider demographic than their core vote? They are aiming to be the govt of the UK and if they are seen as the party of the EU they, by your approach, are appealing to 48% of the vote.

It's also simplistic to think that political parties are simply appealing to the predominant wing. The SNP and Greens in particular are trying to manage the 35 - 40% or so of their support opposed to the EU. Even the Lid Dems struggled at their conference with those members in favour of Brexit.

[ProfessorDavey]

That's a bit chicken and egg - surely what Labour has to do - more than most parties is appeal to a wider demographic than their core vote? They are aiming to be the govt of the UK and if they are seen as the party of the EU they, by your approach, are appealing to 48% of the vote.

Quite, but they aren't going to be successful at appealing to the 48% (including current Labour voters and remainers who might vote for them in the future, and may have voted for them in the past) if they are kind of Tory/UKIP lite on brexit. And they are unlikely to appeal to the 52% either if they are Tory/UKIP lite on brexit, as those parties have largely hoovered up the leave vote.

[Nearly Sane]

Quite, but they aren't going to be successful at appealing to the 48% (including current Labour voters and remainers who might vote for them in the future, and may have voted for them in the past) if they are kind of Tory/UKIP lite on brexit. And they are unlikely to appeal to the 52% either if they are Tory/UKIP lite on brexit, as those parties have largely hoovered up the leave vote.

Surely they are aiming for the around 45% in the middle, and others for whom other aspects might be important. that they need to win? The struggle for Labour is about the size of vote they need and it affects how they play this. They could try Brexit is bad but if that alienates a third of their own support and 52% of the overall vote trying to form a govt is hard. As already noted, it's not that easy for most parties, and has affected the stance of the SNP. Greens and even had an affect in the Lib Dem conference.