Brexit - the next steps

[ProfessorDavey]

I would think the contents of my past posts have given you my answer on this subject, we wont agree no matter whatever one or the other were to say, I'm sorry if you don't like it but winning the referendum is sufficient for me, I look forward to the day.

Regards ippy

I'm sorry but I haven't read all your previous posts so I really don't know. So it would be helpful if you could enlighten us.

What I can't understand is that Referendums are about what we do in the future, yet you appear to be delighted with a result that provides absolutely no clarity about what that future might entail. How can you be delighted about something, when you haven't a clue what that something actually is.

[Nearly Sane]

Good article


https://www.rte.ie/amp/924399/

[jeremyp]

We broke it therefore you have to pay for it.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-42137597

Obviously channelling the Trumpster.

[jeremyp]

I make it 126ish. Well, my phone does.

What, you mean a little over two years. Fancy the EU wanting us to pay two years of contributions that we have already committed to. How evil of them.

[jeremyp]

That is a point of view, we're unlikely to agree, the point is we are leaving so we need to get on with it and make the effort necessary to make a success of leaving.

Regards ippy

Somebody tell the fuckwits in charge that.

The thing is, the only thing all the Brexiteers really agree on is leaving the EU. Beyond that, there are almost as many visions of post Brexit Britain as there are Brexiteers, so it is not surprising that the negotiation is a complete shambles. They can't agree amongst themselves what they want.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I would think the contents of my past posts have given you my answer on this subject, we wont agree no matter whatever one or the other were to say, I'm sorry if you don't like it but winning the referendum is sufficient for me, I look forward to the day.

Regards ippy

Winning is sufficient?You wanted a win and that was it?I imagine that was what a lot of people wanted. ...............what I want to know is why and when scratchcards and fucking fruit machines became unsatisfactory for people who "wanted a win"?

[jeremyp]

I will join any agency necessary to prevent having referendum after referendum until you remoaners get your way,

I think that is the height of hypocrisy. We had a referendum in the 1970's and decided to stay in what is now the EU. So it's obviously OK to have referendum after referendum until the Brexiteers get their way but not the other way around.

because that would be removing the decision from those that in reality have the best interests of our country in mind and took this democratic opportunity to vote leave. (We're not likely to agree).

It's pretty obvious now that the Brexiteers did not have the best interests of the country in mind.

We're going to be kicked out of the single market.

We're going to be kicked out of Horizon 2020

We're going to be kicked out of Europol

Even leading Brexiteers are telling people to pull investment out of the UK. (I always knew that John Redwood was a lying backstabbing shit).

If we have hard Brexit, our airlines will be kicked out of Europe

Our negotiation team is a shambles and they are keeping information secret that we, the electorate, need to know, in spite of the fact that we were told we would have more say in our government.

Look at what is going on and then tell us honestly if you think it is going well.

[jeremyp]

I'm delighted for reasons you'll not agree with no matter

Why are you being so coy about naming them?

[ProfessorDavey]

Why are you being so coy about naming them?

Exactly - we may not agree, but that isn't any reason not to state your reasons.

[ippy]

I'm sorry but I haven't read all your previous posts so I really don't know. So it would be helpful if you could enlighten us.

What I can't understand is that Referendums are about what we do in the future, yet you appear to be delighted with a result that provides absolutely no clarity about what that future might entail. How can you be delighted about something, when you haven't a clue what that something actually is.

We obviously will never be agreeing on this subject and yes I was delighted with the result of the referendum, nor do I expect it will be easy. even so I'm still delighted and more than likely will remain pleased with the end product.

I'm sorry you don't share my feelings about the referendum, but as you must know we don't agree and are never likely to agree whatever one or the other says, there isn't very much I want to say about Brexit.

I didn't enter into this Brexit thread someone derailed on to Brexit from another thread, I commented on their Brexit remark and before I knew it I ended up on a thread where the contributors wish to argue about Brexit, I don't, and didn't elect to be on this thread in the first place, sorry to have bothered you.

Regards ippy

[ippy]

Why are you being so coy about naming them?

I refer you to my post 1159 it will explain.

Regards ippy

[jeremyp]

I'm still delighted and more than likely will remain pleased with the end product.

Pull the other one, it's got bells on it. Do you really believe the negotiations are going well?

[ProfessorDavey]

... more than likely will remain pleased with the end product.

SO can you enlighten us a bit further.

Which of the many possible brexit outcomes would you be pleased with, and which not.

So lets give some examples of what may happen in 2019:

1. The UK remaining in the customs union and single market, but leaving the EU.

2. A no deal hard brexit - with the UK trading only on WTO rules, with consequential major issues with air travel and a hard NI/Republic border.

3. A no deal brexit, but with a transitional arrangement coming in in 2019 which is effectively continuation of a current EU membership rules, without an end stop due for the transitional arrangement, nor any clarity on what a post-traditional deal will look like (if one even is agreed)

These are 3 entirely plausible outcomes and all would satisfy the referendum result that we would have left the EU - which of these would you be 'please' with, and which not.

[jakswan]

I think actually it is a completely intractable problem unless the UK is in the customs union (or some other mechanism that is in effect identical to the customs union). The only other options are:

1. A hard border between NI and the Republic
2. A hard border between NI and the rest of the UK
3. A hard border between the Republic and the rest of the EU

None are acceptable. And by 'hard border' I mean anything that prevents the completely free (DUP term frictionless) movement of people, goods and services across the border as is the case now.

There already exists a hard border between Ireland and EU.

[Rhiannon]

Pull the other one, it's got bells on it. Do you really believe the negotiations are going well?

From the EU point of view they might be.

[ProfessorDavey]

There already exists a hard border between Ireland and EU.

No there isn't.

There is passport control, as the Republic, just like the UK isn't in Schengen. But there are no customs checks for goods arriving into the Republic from another EU country or vice versa, just as there are no customs checks for good arriving into the UK from another EU country or vice versa.

Unless the UK remains in the customs union, or come effectively identical equivalent somewhere there will need to be a hard border where goods are checked for customs purposes. None of the options for where that border would be (between NI/rest of UK; between Republic/NI; between Republic/rest of EU) are acceptable to key stakeholders who have the power simply to block a deal.

[jakswan]

No there isn't.

There is passport control, as the Republic, just like the UK isn't in Schengen. But there are no customs checks for goods arriving into the Republic from another EU country or vice versa, just as there are no customs checks for good arriving into the UK from another EU country or vice versa.

Unless the UK remains in the customs union, or come effectively identical equivalent somewhere there will need to be a hard border where goods are checked for customs purposes. None of the options for where that border would be (between NI/rest of UK; between Republic/NI; between Republic/rest of EU) are acceptable to key stakeholders who have the power simply to block a deal.

To semi-quote you:-
By 'hard border' you mean anything that prevents the completely free (DUP term frictionless) movement of people,

Are you changing your definition?

btw
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/hard-border

If solution can't be found then we leave with no deal, so we are both hoping for a solution, are we?

[Harrowby Hall]

There is passport control, as the Republic, just like the UK isn't in Schengen.

Is this true? I confess to never having visited Ireland - north or south - but I thought that both parts of Ireland, the UK, the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man comprised the Common Travel Area in which there are no passport controls. I visit the Channel islands frequently and all I need when flying there is a government issued document bearing a photograph - this is a requirement of the airline.

I usually use my bus pass.

[jeremyp]

Is this true? I confess to never having visited Ireland - north or south - but I thought that both parts of Ireland, the UK, the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man comprised the Common Travel Area in which there are no passport controls. I visit the Channel islands frequently and all I need when flying there is a government issued document bearing a photograph - this is a requirement of the airline.

I usually use my bus pass.

There is no passport check if you are arriving from the UK. There is a passport check if you are arriving from other parts of the EU.

[Harrowby Hall]

Thank you. I misread Prof D's post.

[ProfessorDavey]

Looks as if the UK government has blinked first again. NI will not diverge from key EU laws and regulations in the future to allow no hard border. However this will necessary require a hard border between NI and the rest of the UK, unless the rest of the UK also agrees to the same regulatory arrangements as the EU - in other words de facto membership of single market and customs union.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/04/meps-say-uk-has-conceded-on-ireland-border-in-brexit-talks?CMP=share_btn_fb

Not sure this is going to go down well with unionists in NI, nor actually in other parts of the UK as they see NI effectively being able to remain in the single market and customs union while they are ejected.

[wigginhall]

This is being spun in multiple ways, as a rebuff to the DUP, and half way to a united Ireland, or on the other hand, a necessary fudge to allow talks to proceed to stage 2.    As Prof. D. just said, it seems to suggest a hard border between NI and the rest of UK, which seems well, interesting. 

The reactions are going to be interesting, for example, Scottish govt may well ask, why can't we have the same?   What will the Ultras say to this?  Maybe there is some sop to them about to be revealed.

[Rhiannon]

What a fucking stupid mess.

[wigginhall]

It seems bizarre if one chunk of the UK is in effect part of the single market (NI), but other parts are not, and therefore have a hard border with NI.   I suppose NI is a special case, but expect the Scots to come roaring in, saying, we are a special case as well.   The independence banners are being dusted off.

[Anchorman]

Looks as if the UK government has blinked first again. NI will not diverge from key EU laws and regulations in the future to allow no hard border. However this will necessary require a hard border between NI and the rest of the UK, unless the rest of the UK also agrees to the same regulatory arrangements as the EU - in other words de facto membership of single market and customs union.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/04/meps-say-uk-has-conceded-on-ireland-border-in-brexit-talks?CMP=share_btn_fb

Not sure this is going to go down well with unionists in NI, nor actually in other parts of the UK as they see NI effectively being able to remain in the single market and customs union while they are ejected.

You're right there"
If Davies thinks NI being effectively still part of the customs union whilst Scotland - which voted substantially to remain in the EU - does not have the same privilege - is solving a problem, he, and May, are more deluded than I otherwise thought.
 So much for May's assurance that all parts of the 'UK' would be treated in the same manner as far as the Brexit debate was concerned.