Brexit - the next steps

[jakswan]

How long before Farage and the Kippers start demanding a referendum on the deal.

I hope that won't get any traction, I suppose you could end up with the extremist leavers and remainers form a strange campaign group to get one. I can't see there being one only the LibDems have that as policy and any referendum will need to get through Parliment.

It will go before Parliament options leave - no deal or leave with deal, there is no chance the deal that it will fail to get through I think.

[ProfessorDavey]

I hope that won't get any traction, I suppose you could end up with the extremist leavers and remainers form a strange campaign group to get one. I can't see there being one only the LibDems have that as policy and any referendum will need to get through Parliment.

It will go before Parliament options leave - no deal or leave with deal, there is no chance the deal that it will fail to get through I think.

What do you mean 'I hope that won't get any traction', it already has and that was before the likely joining of the uber brexiters in calling for a referendum on the final deal.

The most recent polling (obviously before today's announcement) had 50% wanting a referendum on the final deal, compared to just 34% opposing a referendum.

Things have moved on - get with the programme.

[jakswan]

What do you mean 'I hope that won't get any traction', it already has and that was before the likely joining of the uber brexiters in calling for a referendum on the final deal.

The most recent polling (obviously before today's announcement) had 50% wanting a referendum on the final deal, compared to just 34% opposing a referendum.

Things have moved on - get with the programme.

Traction in Parliament, get with the programme, read in context. 😀

[Aruntraveller]

An interesting issue to come out of the deal announced is that British people born in Northern Ireland will have the right to be a member of the EU if they so wish.

I am pleased for them - but it hardly ties in with Madame Foster's cry that N. Ireland should be treated the same as the rUK.

[Rhiannon]

An interesting issue to come out of the deal announced is that British people born in Northern Ireland will have the right to be a member of the EU if they so wish.

I am pleased for them - but it hardly ties in with Madame Foster's cry that N. Ireland should be treated the same as the rUK.

And when that becomes clear it becomes unworkable, surely.

[ProfessorDavey]

Traction in Parliament, get with the programme, read in context. 😀

If public opinion becomes embedded, or even moves more in favour of them having a say on the final deal, then Parliament will follow.

[jakswan]

An interesting issue to come out of the deal announced is that British people born in Northern Ireland will have the right to be a member of the EU if they so wish.

I am pleased for them - but it hardly ties in with Madame Foster's cry that N. Ireland should be treated the same as the rUK.

Its the case now that those people can get an Irish passport, nothing changes really.

I got the impression Foster was posturing this last week.

[jakswan]

If public opinion becomes embedded, or even moves more in favour of them having a say on the final deal, then Parliament will follow.

Yes if public opinion moves then Parliament might, the vast middle is made up of people like me that would be satisfied with a Norway type deal, there are the extremists like yourself and Farage who won't be happy.

Besides Farage would be campaigning for a vote where the options will be no deal or leave, he will not campaign for a third option, stay.

[Spud]

You do understand that people from Eastern European countries are all individuals don't you.

Totally. Plus they were living in grotty caravans on the farm, I felt sorry for them. I just think the farmer could have made space for me to pick with them, but he didn't. They were tough and could pick a lot faster, and of course from a business perspective the farmer was bound to employ whoever was fittest. However, there appear to be many others in this country who've had a similar experience, losing job opportunities because of European migrants. It seems many people used the referendum to reclaim something they had lost. Don't get me wrong they are great people, full of life. But I don't see any problem with putting a cap on numbers- even David Cameron tried his hardest to achieve that. My statement about them not being reliable long term friends came out wrong (sorry). I was badly let down by a Romanian and observed quite a lot of behaviour I just thought was inappropriate.

[ProfessorDavey]

the vast middle is made up of people like me that would be satisfied with a Norway type deal

Evidence for this please - I actually think rather few people would be happy with a Norway-type deal, given that 48% want to remain part of the EU, and the 52% of brexiteers is deeply split - we keep being told that most thought stopping FOM to be the biggest issue, which isn't compatible with a Norway deal.

And this is actually the critical problem - as soon as an actual deal emerges any sense of a mandate vanishes, because it only takes 2% of the leave supporting population to oppose that particular deal for the majority for brexit itself to vanish.

, there are the extremists like yourself and Farage who won't be happy.

On what basis am I an extremist - my views reflect 48% of the country as per the referendum, and over 50% according to all the recent polling which indicates a majority to believe that Britain was wrong to vote for brexit.

Besides Farage would be campaigning for a vote where the options will be no deal or leave, he will not campaign for a third option, stay.

He might, but the notion that a deal and no deal were actually options was always nonsense - we cannot have no deal as there all sorts of things that cannot not be agreed as there is no 'default' solution. The 3 big issues in the preliminary talks being three examples.

[Aruntraveller]

Its the case now that those people can get an Irish passport, nothing changes really.

I got the impression Foster was posturing this last week.

Of course, something changes post-Brexit. The population of N.Ireland will be treated differently to the population in rUK. How will this work?

Agree Foster was posturing but that's what the DUP are very good at - having had such a lot of practice.

[ProfessorDavey]

I just think the farmer could have made space for me to pick with them, but he didn't. They were tough and could pick a lot faster, and of course from a business perspective the farmer was bound to employ whoever was fittest.

So they were already in the job and were better at it than you - and yet you seem peeved that the farmer didn't give you their job. The farmer is running a business, not a charity - and you aren't 'owed' a job, certainly not 'owed' a particular job as you seem to think.

However, there appear to be many others in this country who've had a similar experience, losing job opportunities because of European migrants.

Actually many of the jobs regularly taken by Eastern European immigrants are ones that employers really struggled to fill with UK workers - either because their weren't enough UK workers with the necessary skills, or because they were jobs that many UK workers felt below them.

And what about all the jobs that these immigrants help to create - don't forget that they pay tax, use local businesses and services and generally help buoy up the economy, which creates new jobs.

[torridon]

Totally. Plus they were living in grotty caravans on the farm, I felt sorry for them. I just think the farmer could have made space for me to pick with them, but he didn't. They were tough and could pick a lot faster, and of course from a business perspective the farmer was bound to employ whoever was fittest. However, there appear to be many others in this country who've had a similar experience, losing job opportunities because of European migrants. It seems many people used the referendum to reclaim something they had lost. Don't get me wrong they are great people, full of life. But I don't see any problem with putting a cap on numbers- even David Cameron tried his hardest to achieve that. My statement about them not being reliable long term friends came out wrong (sorry). I was badly let down by a Romanian and observed quite a lot of behaviour I just thought was inappropriate.

Businesses need to be competitive to stay in business and that means drawing on the best talent available.  By extrapolating from your personal grievance at losing out to 'fitter' workers from overseas to a general principle endorsing some arbitrary cap on incoming numbers you are also endorsing an economic model that would see British businesses becoming less competitive and ultimately the British economy becoming less competitive.  You would drag everyone down because of your personal grievance, in other words.  We need the maximum possible freedoms to secure the best talent for our economy, I don't see that putting up artificial barriers to that need will benefit anyone in the long run. We will end up just dwindling back into some impoverished irrelevant backwater again.

[jakswan]

Evidence for this please - I actually think rather few people would be happy with a Norway-type deal, given that 48% want to remain part of the EU, and the 52% of brexiteers is deeply split - we keep being told that most thought stopping FOM to be the biggest issue, which isn't compatible with a Norway deal.

And this is actually the critical problem - as soon as an actual deal emerges any sense of a mandate vanishes, because it only takes 2% of the leave supporting population to oppose that particular deal for the majority for brexit itself to vanish.
On what basis am I an extremist - my views reflect 48% of the country as per the referendum, and over 50% according to all the recent polling which indicates a majority to believe that Britain was wrong to vote for brexit.
He might, but the notion that a deal and no deal were actually options was always nonsense - we cannot have no deal as there all sorts of things that cannot not be agreed as there is no 'default' solution. The 3 big issues in the preliminary talks being three examples.

There was a post Brexit poll that suggested that most remainers accepted the result. The extremes are those that would not have accepted the result either way, it's not a bad thing.

Your opinion on a mandate is irrelevant, Parliaments views are key, there will not be another referendum unless enough politicians support it, currently there are a few.

You predict that will change may I remind you that your record of predictions is pretty dire.

[jakswan]

Of course, something changes post-Brexit. The population of N.Ireland will be treated differently to the population in rUK. How will this work?

Today the population of NI is treated differently to rUK it works.

[torridon]

There was a post Brexit poll that suggested that most remainers accepted the result. The extremes are those that would not have accepted the result either way, it's not a bad thing.

There's a difference between 'accepting' and abiding by a majority view as a good democrat, and believing the majority view is correct. Speaking up for a minority viewpoint does not make one an extremist.

[Harrowby Hall]

I was watching the Andrew Marr programme this morning. There was a hint during the discussion on today's newspapers that the decision about Brexit might actually be taken by third-party countries.

They may say that they have a satisfactory trading relationship with the EU and are not prepared to waste time and energy on building a new one with the UK. If the UK wishes to trade with them it can do so though the framework which already exists. My attention then drifted to other things and I did not note this point being raised with either Keir Starmer or David Davis later in the programme.

[ProfessorDavey]

There was a post Brexit poll that suggested that most remainers accepted the result.

Indeed - many, many months ago and things can and have changed - we are in extremely volatile political times. And of course there is no contradiction between accepting the result of the 2016 referendum (which was, at best, about the 'concept' of brexit rather than an actual brexit deal), and wanting a referendum to provide a democratic mandate for the actual deal, which doesn't exist currently.

As we are seeing any actually deliverable deal will not be supported by some parts of the Leave vote - and with such a wafer thin majority in 2016, that makes any mandate unsafe even if there were one. I suspect there are parts of the Leave vote who would actually prefer to remain rather than have an ultra-soft Norway type brexit.

Why are you so terrified of democracy - we have a general election every 5 years - by the time we are actually about to implement any final deal)(2021 at the earliest) we will be 5 years on from the 2016 referendum - in other cases we would consider that mandate 'timed out' even if there were a mandate for an actual deal.

[jakswan]

Indeed - many, many months ago and things can and have changed - we are in extremely volatile political times. And of course there is no contradiction between accepting the result of the 2016 referendum (which was, at best, about the 'concept' of brexit rather than an actual brexit deal), and wanting a referendum to provide a democratic mandate for the actual deal, which doesn't exist currently.

What are you attempting to refute here?

As we are seeing any actually deliverable deal will not be supported by some parts of the Leave vote - and with such a wafer thin majority in 2016, that makes any mandate unsafe even if there were one. I suspect there are parts of the Leave vote who would actually prefer to remain rather than have an ultra-soft Norway type brexit.

Speculation, there are some parts of Leave will not be happy and some parts of remain that will.

Why are you so terrified of democracy - we have a general election every 5 years - by the time we are actually about to implement any final deal)(2021 at the earliest) we will be 5 years on from the 2016 referendum - in other cases we would consider that mandate 'timed out' even if there were a mandate for an actual deal.

Very strange that you portray me as 'terrified of democracy' I'd be quite happy with another vote on the deal. I'm trying to explain to you that in order for there to be another vote there has to be a majority of MP's that will vote another referendum bill through.

You need to get 326 MP's to agree with you, currently that number is 47, its possible I'm not saying it isn't just that there is some way to go.

I would urge anyone reading your predictions that you deliver with such apparent certainty to be aware of your track record on predictions, it is woeful.

[ProfessorDavey]

You need to get 326 MP's to agree with you, currently that number is 47 ...

On what basis do you think that only 47 MPs support a referendum on the final deal?

[jakswan]

On what basis do you think that only 47 MPs support a referendum on the final deal?

SNP & libdems, oh forgot Green & the plids. Think Kier Stammer would from interview today but currently doesn't.

[Harrowby Hall]

SNP & libdems, oh forgot Green & the plids. Think Kier Stammer would from interview today but currently doesn't.

     When in that House MPs divide
     If they've a brain, and cerebellum too
     They have to leave that brain outside
     And vote just as their leaders tell'em to.

You are assuming that the members of the two largest parties will all vote in the way the Party Whips tell them to vote. Certainly not in what would very likely be a free vote.

It is a pity that the House of Commons cannot come up with a better way of voting than requiring members to present their bodies at the point of counting. Rebels - or perhaps members following their conscience - have to ask whether or not it is worth while standing up against the moral bullying called "whipping".

[jakswan]

You are assuming that the members of the two largest parties will all vote in the way the Party Whips tell them to vote. Certainly not in what would very likely be a free vote.

I did say currently. The Remainers in the Tories seem happy, perhaps they agree with Davey:-

Single market and customs union in all but name. Farage and hard brexiteers livid.

[Nearly Sane]

Privatisation, how does that work then?


http://www.dw.com/en/brexit-hard-liners-angered-by-royal-mails-refusal-to-release-brexit-stamp/a-41738522

[jeremyp]

Privatisation, how does that work then?


http://www.dw.com/en/brexit-hard-liners-angered-by-royal-mails-refusal-to-release-brexit-stamp/a-41738522

I wish the Brexiteers would concentrate on sorting out Brexit rather than whine about trivialities.