Brexit - the next steps

[ProfessorDavey]

Why did you not quote the full thing rather than a string of partial quote interspersed with multiple ... and [.] - whatever the latter means. Also I note no link to the original source. Classic quote miners techniques.

Actually your 'quote' isn't a quote at all, but some kind of mash up.

So this is what Corbyn actually said - in full in the debate on the Matricht Treaty in 1993:

"I have listened with great care to what my hon. Friend has said about article 2 and its social objectives. Does he concede that the whole basis of the Maastricht treaty is the establishment of a European central bank which is staffed by bankers, independent of national Governments and national economic policies, and whose sole policy is the maintenance of price stability? That will undermine any social objective that any Labour Government in the United Kingdom--or any other Government-- would wish to carry out. Does my hon. Friend recognise that the imposition of a bankers' Europe on the people of this continent will endanger the cause of socialism in the United Kingdom and in any other country?"

Note that the first part (starting 'Does he concede ...') is framed as a question, but your amended quote implies it to be a statement which is disingenuous. Note the section I have emphasised, which you failed to include at all. This makes it clear that Corbyn's issue isn't with the EU in theory, but that its practical implementation is, in his view, not consistent with furthering socialism across Europe (which is in itself entirely consistent with a classic internationalism agenda).

[jakswan]

Why did you not quote the full thing rather than a string of partial quote interspersed with multiple ... and [.] - whatever the latter means. Also I note no link to the original source. Classic quote miners techniques.

I got it from wiki I'd find you the link but can't be arsed in playing point scoring games.

In my opinion Brexit is more likely with Corbyn and Co running the Labour party.

[jakswan]

I quite like Stephen Law.

http://stephenlaw.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/big-picture-labour-vs-pragmatic-labour.html

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Farage warming to a second referendum.

[ProfessorDavey]

Farage warming to a second referendum.

Indeed - there really is a head of steam developing here, and given that any further referendum (not a second one but the first on a specific deal) cannot happen until the final deal is known, probably 2021-ish then there is plenty of time for that head of steam to develop irresistible momentum.

[Nearly Sane]

Aaron Banks as well.


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/millionaire-brexit-backer-aaron-banks-11835287

[Nearly Sane]

Of course the true divide is Mrs Brown's Boys




https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/from-brexit-to-mrs-brown-britains-bitter-division-is-no-laughing-matter-2rt7glbcr

[ProfessorDavey]

Aaron Banks as well.


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/millionaire-brexit-backer-aaron-banks-11835287

I a way I think this was always going to happen.

Remainers always had a clear objective - staying in the EU so were a well defined group based on their views. Leavers on the other hand were a broad church with a massive range of views on what Brexit should look like brought together only on the theoretical notion that we wouldn't be in the EU.

So once plans begin to firm up (any plan) there will be a sizeable block of Leavers who become disillusioned as the proposed brexit isn't their flavour of brexit. And so we are seeing a strange alignment of groups who don't like the proposed brexit plan (as it develops) and see a referendum as a way out in differing directions.

[Nearly Sane]

So Nige misspoke or maybe he didn't.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42665369

[floo]

If there was a second referendum I think it might go the remainer's way, as people begin to realise that leaving the EU may well put up the cost of living.

[ProfessorDavey]

If there was a second referendum I think it might go the remainer's way, as people begin to realise that leaving the EU may well put up the cost of living.

I think that is a distinct possibility - not least due to demographic shift - by 2021 (assuming that is when another referendum takes place based on a final deal) a block of older voters (heavily Leave last time) will have died and replaced by a block of new voters - those attaining the age of 18 since 24th June 2016, who are likely to be heavily for remain.

[Nearly Sane]

If there was a second referendum I think it might go the remainer's way, as people begin to realise that leaving the EU may well put up the cost of living.

That might not really be on offer. If the referendum is on the final deal, it might be that or no deal. Any second referendum that has Remain as a possibility, needs further negotiation to have been held with the EU and for them to agree a Stay deal, agreed by all 27 members.

[Nearly Sane]

I think that is a distinct possibility - not least due to demographic shift - by 2021 (assuming that is when another referendum takes place based on a final deal) a block of older voters (heavily Leave last time) will have died and replaced by a block of new voters - those attaining the age of 18 since 24th June 2016, who are likely to be heavily for remain.

And if it's Remain, dependent on that even making sense I.e. having an agreed deal with the EU for staying, epwhch would have to be negotiated up front as well before the referendum, but by a similar margin to thee first, do we gave another soon?

[ProfessorDavey]

That might not really be on offer. If the referendum is on the final deal, it might be that or no deal. Any second referendum that has Remain as a possibility, needs further negotiation to have been held with the EU and for them to agree a Stay deal, agreed by all 27 members.

I am really not sure that deal vs no-deal is actually a possibility albeit that many politicians claim as such.

There are far too many issues where there simply isn't a 'no deal' default - these issues have to be sorted and there has to be some kind of agreement.

Examples being:

1. Future payment on financial obligations
2. Status of many EU citizens in the UK and vice versa - particularly kids born here but not actually UK citizens for example.
3. Virtually every regulation etc that has come in after the UK joined and where there isn't an obvious fall back position - I think aviation was one case regularly mentioned.

The whole deal vs no deal seems entirely focussed on trade, but this is one one of many, many issues that have to be hammered out, most of which don't have the kind of suggested WTO fall back position. So these areas would fall into a kind of regulatory/legalistic limbo without a deal, which may indeed be incompatible with international law (e.g. on citizen's rights).

Some have also suggested that a range of deal options could be proposed - but this again, I think, is fantasy - the EU will only negotiate a single deal - that is all that will be on the table - we wont be able to pick and mix between Norway vs Canada etc.

So theoretically you cold have a deal vs no deal referendum, but the latter would be undeliverable (except on trade) so isn't actually a viable option.

[Nearly Sane]

And since I think the same applies to a Remain referendum then both seem unlikely. In order to her a Remain deal the govt would have to openly have negotiations with the EU for Remain. This seems likely to break up the govt. Now we might then have an election which produces some coalition committed to a similar stay in negotiation but that is a big if. The movement of strpeam you were referring to earlier needs to move a damn sight faster and cleared for this to be a possibility.

[ProfessorDavey]

And since I think the same applies to a Remain referendum then both seem unlikely. In order to her a Remain deal the govt would have to openly have negotiations with the EU for Remain. This seems likely to break up the govt. Now we might then have an election which produces some coalition committed to a similar stay in negotiation but that is a big if. The movement of strpeam you were referring to earlier needs to move a damn sight faster and cleared for this to be a possibility.

But there is a difference between something that is perfectly possible (even if unlikely, although I'm not sure it would be) - in other words EU agreeing to allow the UK back, based on a referendum result and something which I don't think is actually deliverable in principle - a no deal solution (not just no deal on trade, but actually no deal).

But on the former it depends on what happens over the next couple of years. It is quite possible that the EU may agree to or even require an extension of the 2 year post article 50 period to include the transitional period, while a final deal is sorted. I'm not sure the government would be in any position to object as otherwise they'd crash into limbo in March 2019. As it now seem increasingly clear that article 50 may be revoked by the country triggering it (including by the guy who actually drafted it), that would provide a very simply mechanism for a remain vs deal referendum at the point a deal has been agreed.

[ProfessorDavey]

And since I think the same applies to a Remain referendum then both seem unlikely. In order to her a Remain deal the govt would have to openly have negotiations with the EU for Remain. This seems likely to break up the govt. Now we might then have an election which produces some coalition committed to a similar stay in negotiation but that is a big if. The movement of strpeam you were referring to earlier needs to move a damn sight faster and cleared for this to be a possibility.

Of course alternatively, if we were to have left, it might be simply a deal vs re-join referendum, which would be very straightforward.

[Nearly Sane]

I think that's a rosy tinted view of the politics and legal hassles. I think there is a chance that the EU might go along with the approach but I can for see problems from some members. In addition I can see any legal questions on this being challenged thoroughly by the leave supporters and despite what the drafter of the clause says, he isn't making the decision.


But all of this ignores what happens to the party of govt, and indeed the party of opposition if they try and change Brexit to mean another referendum.

[Nearly Sane]

Of course alternatively, if we were to have left, it might be simply a deal vs re-join referendum, which would be very straightforward.

wouldn't that depend on the deal we left on, and whatever deal we renegotiated? And surely we wouldn't yourlogic needs second referendum after any new deal was agreed?

[ProfessorDavey]

wouldn't that depend on the deal we left on, and whatever deal we renegotiated? And surely we wouldn't yourlogic needs second referendum after any new deal was agreed?

We don't actually need a referendum for any of these scenarios - the government, with parliamentary approval is constitutionally able to agree a deal or even to decide to remain.

The point is more political - as a deal emerges it is likely that it will not have majority support in the country (we are already seeing this in polls where a strong majority believe the deal will be bad) - so the government can take the hit for forcing through something that most people don't want (albeit don't agree on what they want as an alternative), so to delegate the decision to the electorate would make political sense.

Likewise I cannot see how we could remain without another referendum - while we could in theory, it would be political suicide, but were a referendum (say in 2020 or 2021) to vote to remain (or rejoin) that would clearly trump a referendum in 2016.

And there is a further problem - were a major party to call for a referendum, it would be very difficult for other parties not to follow suit - effectively they'd be saying that they don't like democracy while doesn't go down very well.

[ProfessorDavey]

Aaron Banks as well.


http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/millionaire-brexit-backer-aaron-banks-11835287

Interesting that he is talking about a 'true brexit'.

I think it is dawning on the uber-brexit headbangers that what will ultimately be negotiated will retain hugely close ties between the UK and the EU and will therefore require the Uk to remain under many of the EU regulatory arrangements plus also to continue to contribute financially.

What did they expect? What I don't think they realise is that if only 52% voted for all the flavours of brexit combined (in some pollyAnna-ish cake and eat it fashion) there is nowhere near a majority for their uber-extreme form of brexit. Indeed (the most important point) unlikely to be a majority for any specific type of brexit.

[Nearly Sane]

I think for any of Tory or Labour to call for another referendum could easily make the other party obliged to say no. I cannot see the Tory party doing it because that would provoke nights of long, middle and short sharp knives. The Labour party could possibly call for one but if anything that would strengthen the Tories resolve and position into saying they are the only party for the UK. Even if they lose some votes in Parliament , I think they might walk an election.

The idea that there is going to be a rapid and constant flow to Remain seems unlikely to me even with demographics.

[Nearly Sane]

Interesting that he is talking about a 'true brexit'.

I think it is dawning on the uber-brexit headbangers that what will ultimately be negotiated will retain hugely close ties between the UK and the EU and will therefore require the Uk to remain under many of the EU regulatory arrangements plus also to continue to contribute financially.

What did they expect? What I don't think they realise is that if only 52% voted for all the flavours of brexit combined (in some pollyAnna-ish cake and eat it fashion) there is nowhere near a majority for their uber-extreme form of brexit. Indeed (the most important point) unlikely to be a majority for any specific type of brexit.

I think the idea that Bremain as you portray it as consistent is untrue. You seem to be judging the two choices in the last referendum as two entirely different things. Yes, there was division amongst the Leavers but there was too amongst the Stayers, some who wanted a wholesale reform of the EU,some who saw it as merely a 7/10 and only marginally better than Leave.

[ProfessorDavey]

I cannot see the Tory party doing it because that would provoke nights of long, middle and short sharp knives.

But the Tories remain massively split on brexit - most tory MPs supported remain, and are hardwired to think that the economy is the most important thing - exactly the area most at threat. There is currently an uneasy truce (mainly to stop the government collapsing), but all those remain Tories haven't actually changed there mind - they are just being quiet.

The tories called to first referendum to lance the boil. All hell will break out once an actually deal is on the table. If it is all soft and fluffy, the right wing nutters will be on the war-path. If it is super hard, the majority of the tory party will be opposed. So what to do - throw the decision to the country to lance the boil again.

[Nearly Sane]

But the Tories remain massively split on brexit - most tory MPs supported remain, and are hardwired to think that the economy is the most important thing - exactly the area most at threat. There is currently an uneasy truce (mainly to stop the government collapsing), but all those remain Tories haven't actually changed there mind - they are just being quiet.

The tories called to first referendum to lance the boil. All hell will break out once an actually deal is on the table. If it is all soft and fluffy, the right wing nutters will be on the war-path. If it is super hard, the majority of the tory party will be opposed. So what to do - throw the decision to the country to lance the boil again.

But do most Tory MPs support Remain now? It would appear not and many are from constituencies heavily for Leave. I think the Tory party as a beast cares about power not the economy and see the economy as a way to retain power. The public needs to turn rapidly against Brexit or any deal for the numbers not to tell the vast majority of Tories to support the govt. And yes, they could try and make the same mistake of lancing the boil with a referendum but now they have an example of why that won't necessarily work.