Brexit - the next steps

[jakswan]

I didn't say that IDS said pro remain is appeasement rather that it is the equivalent of appeasement.

Erm.

Not supporting Brexit is appeasement


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/22/brexit-appeasement-cbi-gets-big-decisions-wrong-just-point/

Don't disagree with the rest of your post.

[jakswan]

Given that what we have seen already is pretty well exactly what was predicted following a vote to leave then it is more project reality. What we are seeing now are the likely downturn in growth under various scenarios compared to what would have been achieved had we voted to remain. And we have already seen a significant slowing in growth in the UK since June 2016, while the global economy is booming. The vote (not even Brexit itself) has turned the UK from one of the fastest growing developed nations to one of the slowest growing.

All the predictions are turning into reality.

All the predictions were if we voted to leave the EU then we would be better off than we are now.

[ProfessorDavey]

All the predictions were if we voted to leave the EU then we would be better off than we are now.

So what - the key (as you well know) is the comparison between options. In all cases we will be worse off leaving (including if we reaming in the single market) compared to remaining in the EU. And the harder the Brexit the worse off we become in comparison.

[Rhiannon]

The article in the Telegraph is behind its paywall but this gives a flavour of it.


https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/02/nick-timothy-telegraph-george-soros-anti-semitic

It seems that for some supporters of Brexit being a Remainer justifies pretty much any kind of attack that they choose.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

All the predictions were if we voted to leave the EU then we would be better off than we are now.

How are brexiteers coming on with the fund to compensate anyone who loses out due to Brexit?

[jeremyp]

Project fear 2.0.

These are the pro Brexit government’s own predictions.

[ProfessorDavey]

Project fear 2.0.

Is it project fear that the fund has tanked against other currencies - nope that is reality
Is it project fear that we have slowed from just about the fasting growing developed nation to just about the slowest - nope that is reality
Is it project fear that our credit rating has been significantly downgraded - nope that is reality.

And that is just caused by the vote to leave - that is all before the economy feels the real chilling effects of actually no longer being part of the largest trading block on the planet - and of course will no longer benefit from the huge number of existing trade deals we already have with countries all over the globe, that will be wiped out when we leave (unless we remain in the single market/customs union).

[jakswan]

So what - the key (as you well know) is the comparison between options. In all cases we will be worse off leaving (including if we reaming in the single market) compared to remaining in the EU. And the harder the Brexit the worse off we become in comparison.

What is key was up to voters to decide, all reports suggested that we would grow slower if we left EU but we would still grow. Both major political parties are pro-brexit until that changes we are leaving.

[Nearly Sane]

Open and transparent - note the first few hours there was only the even numbered pages available


https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2018/02/08/a-country-in-a-filing-cabinet/

[ProfessorDavey]

Both major political parties are pro-brexit until that changes we are leaving.

Support for Brexit amongst the vast majority of the current crop of MPs is a mile wide and an inch deep. The is a small rump (perhaps 100, almost exclusively Tory MPs) where brexit is an inch wide and a mile deep.

Problem is that the other 550 or so don't personally support brexit, they merely feel obligated to go along with it due to the referendum. They were pro-EU prior to the referendum (their actual position), now unconvincingly claim to be pro-brexit (they actually aren't) and can easily be turned (and would probably be delighted to be able to be turned) back to their true colours of being pro-EU. That would probably require a decision to hold a referendum on the final deal (and there is major momentum of public opinion in that direction), but once there is a chink in the armour the whole edifice of MP support for brexit will begin to crumble.

[Nearly Sane]

There we are then.


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/09/northern-ireland-will-stay-in-single-market-after-brexit-eu-says

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Lessons from history.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2000/nov/14/oil.julianglover

[wigginhall]

There we are then.


https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/09/northern-ireland-will-stay-in-single-market-after-brexit-eu-says

That's telling 'em.   I guess the EU are trying to hurry things along, and maybe put a bomb under the UK govt.   You can either have no Irish/N. Irish border, or you can leave the single market.    Not both.

[jakswan]

Support for Brexit amongst the vast majority of the current crop of MPs is a mile wide and an inch deep. The is a small rump (perhaps 100, almost exclusively Tory MPs) where brexit is an inch wide and a mile deep.

Problem is that the other 550 or so don't personally support brexit, they merely feel obligated to go along with it due to the referendum. They were pro-EU prior to the referendum (their actual position), now unconvincingly claim to be pro-brexit (they actually aren't) and can easily be turned (and would probably be delighted to be able to be turned) back to their true colours of being pro-EU. That would probably require a decision to hold a referendum on the final deal (and there is major momentum of public opinion in that direction), but once there is a chink in the armour the whole edifice of MP support for brexit will begin to crumble.

Credit to you such certainty in your predictions not phased by your track record in this regard.

[Nearly Sane]

Interesting article from Alex Massie - behind pay wall but accessible if you haven't coughed up by registering.



https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/brexit-s-losses-may-be-independence-s-gains-pdhf23ssv

[jeremyp]

all reports suggested that we would grow slower if we left EU but we would still grow.

There are still plenty of poor people. The NHS is still in crisis. The deficit is still pretty big. All of these issues will improve faster with more growth.

We also have twenty seven enemies instead of twenty seven allies and we are no longer part of the World's biggest community of nations. What's not to love?

[Gordon]

Apparently Boris is going to use a speech today to reassure all those who aren't Brexit enthusiasts and who think that it is an impending disaster and should be stopped: so we can all breathe a sign of relief and be reassured that all will be well - after all, Boris says so!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43045553   

[floo]

Apparently Boris is going to use a speech today to reassure all those who aren't Brexit enthusiasts and who think that it is an impending disaster and should be stopped: so we can all breathe a sign of relief and be reassured that all will be well - after all, Boris says so!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43045553

Isn't Boris wonderful? Every time I see the guy on TV, I inch to get out my hair clippers.

[jakswan]

There are still plenty of poor people. The NHS is still in crisis. The deficit is still pretty big. All of these issues will improve faster with more growth.

There will always be issues come remain / leave - May / Corbyn, are you saying any decisions should only ever taken which result in more growth?

We also have twenty seven enemies instead of twenty seven allies and we are no longer part of the World's biggest community of nations. What's not to love?

So according to you the 'EU' are friends the rest of the world enemies?

[ProfessorDavey]

There will always be issues come remain / leave - May / Corbyn, are you saying any decisions should only ever taken which result in more growth?

But the issues will be more difficult to solve as we will have less money in the UK economy, meaning less funding for services are, unless we raise tax or borrow more, both of which will also have negative effects on the broader economy and/or personal finances.

[jakswan]

But the issues will be more difficult to solve as we will have less money in the UK economy, meaning less funding for services are, unless we raise tax or borrow more, both of which will also have negative effects on the broader economy and/or personal finances.

No there will be more money in the UK economy than now, the predictions are that there will be less then there could have been if we remain in EU.

Predictions like these.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors

Lets not run the debate again, the way to remain in the EU is another vote on the deal, that is what your 'side' are campaigning for and your biggest barrier to that happening is the Labour leadership. Until you win that battle the war is lost.

[Nearly Sane]

And Alex Massie on Boris's speech


https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/boriss-brexit-vision-is-an-answer-to-a-non-existent-problem/

[jeremyp]

There will always be issues come remain / leave - May / Corbyn, are you saying any decisions should only ever taken which result in more growth?

No but you are exchanging growth and hence wealth and hence a better place to live for a nebulous ideal. It's fine by me if you want to do that with your own money,, but you are doing it with everybody's.

So according to you the 'EU' are friends the rest of the world enemies?

I don't know where you got that idea. We were in a cooperative organisation of twenty eight nations. Now we've put the boot in the other twenty seven don't like us anymore. I thought that was obvious.

[jeremyp]

No there will be more money in the UK economy than now, the predictions are that there will be less then there could have been if we remain in EU.

Predictions like these.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors

Lets not run the debate again, the way to remain in the EU is another vote on the deal, that is what your 'side' are campaigning for and your biggest barrier to that happening is the Labour leadership. Until you win that battle the war is lost.

That's from last January. I've already published a link containing the latest predictions from the government (which supports Brexit) and it's grim.

[jakswan]

No but you are exchanging growth and hence wealth and hence a better place to live for a nebulous ideal. It's fine by me if you want to do that with your own money,, but you are doing it with everybody's.I don't know where you got that idea. We were in a cooperative organisation of twenty eight nations. Now we've put the boot in the other twenty seven don't like us anymore. I thought that was obvious.

You need lessons in how democracy works.

I think the 27 how a more mature attitude towards Brexit than you, if not we should leave anyway.