Author Topic: Brexit - the next steps  (Read 419231 times)

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1600 on: February 15, 2018, 07:48:08 AM »
That's from last January. I've already published a link containing the latest predictions from the government (which supports Brexit) and it's grim.
It is, of course, true that predictions aren't perfect. The problem with the Brexiteers is that they assume that not only are they wrong, but they are wrong in one direction only. In other words that things will be better than predicted. Given that most predictions work on the basis of the middle case of a range of probably outcomes, it is just as likely that the prediction will be wring in the other direction - in other words that things will be worse than predicted.

The Brexiteers use that past 12 months or so to claim that predictions are wrong. But that is totally incorrect - the predictions were always based on positive (or rather negative) change from the base case where we voted to remain, and ultimately remained. And without doubt the trajectory of the economy has nose dived in comparison with how it was pre the vote. We were one of the fastest growing developed economies, we are now just about the slowest.

The reason why things haven't been so terrible in absolute terms is because the global economy has been booming in the past year or so - we should have been reaping the benefits - instead, because of the brexit vote (not even the actual effect of brexit yet) our economy is bumping along the bottom, being left behind by virtually all other developed countries.

jakswan

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1601 on: February 15, 2018, 02:44:11 PM »
It is, of course, true that predictions aren't perfect. The problem with the Brexiteers is that they assume that not only are they wrong, but they are wrong in one direction only. In other words that things will be better than predicted. Given that most predictions work on the basis of the middle case of a range of probably outcomes, it is just as likely that the prediction will be wring in the other direction - in other words that things will be worse than predicted.

Do you want to add the phrase 'some Brexiteers' or cite every Brexiteer?

You paint a picture that those that voted to leave are dogmatic, yet as I recall you stated 'there are zero arguments for leaving', makes you something of a hypocrite.

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Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1602 on: February 15, 2018, 04:17:12 PM »
Do you want to add the phrase 'some Brexiteers' or cite every Brexiteer?

You paint a picture that those that voted to leave are dogmatic, yet as I recall you stated 'there are zero arguments for leaving', makes you something of a hypocrite.
Unfortunately Boris has owned the consequences of Brexit on behalf of his side.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1603 on: February 15, 2018, 05:13:11 PM »
yet as I recall you stated 'there are zero arguments for leaving',
When exactly did I say this - noting your direct quotes. Please evidence or retract.

makes you something of a hypocrite.
Given that you haven't given any evidence that I ever said that how can you then claim I am a hypocrite.

jakswan

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1604 on: February 15, 2018, 06:12:25 PM »
When exactly did I say this - noting your direct quotes. Please evidence or retract.
Given that you haven't given any evidence that I ever said that how can you then claim I am a hypocrite.

It was my recollection happy to withdraw and apologise when you tell me what you think the best argument for leaving is.

Also you are standing by:-

It is, of course, true that predictions aren't perfect. The problem with the Brexiteers is that they assume that not only are they wrong, but they are wrong in one direction only.

Ok my Mum voted for Brexit can you cite her please?
« Last Edit: February 15, 2018, 06:17:56 PM by jakswan »
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1605 on: February 15, 2018, 08:08:50 PM »
It was my recollection ...
I don't recollect ever having said anything of that nature - indeed it doesn't sound like the kind of comment I'd make.

... happy to withdraw and apologise when you tell me what you think the best argument for leaving is.
There are, of course, all sorts of arguments that have been posited to support leaving. I haven't heard any that I've found at all convincing, but of course some are better (or rather less bad) than others.

Perhaps the most credible is the concept of bringing back decision making closer to the people who are affected by that decision. Problem is that even this argument is very weak in practice rather than theory. The key issue being that the UK has a significant democratic deficit and is just about the most centralised democracy in Europe. Actually the EU is underpinned by the concept of subsidiarity, something that the UK has never accepted.

So were the UK to either be highly decentralised, or planned to become, then the argument might have some credibility to it. But as it is the loss of the checks and balances within the EU creates a much greater issue of democratic and governance deficit. So actually the issue is a failure of the UK rather than one of the EU.

Over to you - best arguments for remaining please.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1606 on: February 15, 2018, 08:23:00 PM »
It is, of course, true that predictions aren't perfect. The problem with the Brexiteers is that they assume that not only are they wrong, but they are wrong in one direction only.

Ok my Mum voted for Brexit can you cite her please?
The term I used was Brexiteer, not just someone who voted to leave. Sure I didn't define Brexiteer, but it is no more congruent with all leave voter than the term Remoaner is congruent with all remain voters.

So in my view a Brexiteer is someone who vocally supports leaving the EU, basically as an act of faith, and refuses to acknowledge the possibility of any downsides, raised particularly by experts. Likely to be the same people who routinely use the terms 'Remoaner' and 'Project Fear'. Brexiteers are characterised by a kind of evangelical approach based on faith rather than reason or facts. So if you Mum refuses to acknowledge the possibility of any downside, then she is indeed included in my statement. Perhaps, on the other hand, she is much more realistic - perhaps accepting and worried about destabilising and negative effects that are already happening, just as predicted, and the likely ongoing negative effects of brexit as it actually happens. In which case she wouldn't be included.

But the kind of evangelical, act of faith statements one might expect from a Brexiteer might include continually parroting out nonsense about the 'economy still being bigger after brexit', while refusing to acknowledge that the comparison is just that, a comparison between the economic state under brexit compared to what would have happened if we remained. No idea who might come out with pointless comments of that nature regularly.

jakswan

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1607 on: February 15, 2018, 09:00:58 PM »
I don't recollect ever having said anything of that nature - indeed it doesn't sound like the kind of comment I'd make.
There are, of course, all sorts of arguments that have been posited to support leaving. I haven't heard any that I've found at all convincing, but of course some are better (or rather less bad) than others.

Perhaps the most credible is the concept of bringing back decision making closer to the people who are affected by that decision. Problem is that even this argument is very weak in practice rather than theory. The key issue being that the UK has a significant democratic deficit and is just about the most centralised democracy in Europe. Actually the EU is underpinned by the concept of subsidiarity, something that the UK has never accepted.

So were the UK to either be highly decentralised, or planned to become, then the argument might have some credibility to it. But as it is the loss of the checks and balances within the EU creates a much greater issue of democratic and governance deficit. So actually the issue is a failure of the UK rather than one of the EU.

Over to you - best arguments for remaining please.

I stand corrected apologies, best argument to remain is the economic one.

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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1608 on: February 15, 2018, 09:12:38 PM »
I stand corrected apologies, best argument to remain is the economic one.
The difficulty I have with too many Brexiteers is a lack of honesty and also actually a lack of guts to stand up and be counted for what they consider to be their principles.

I would have more respect if they would have the guts to say 'yes I accept that we will be worse off individually and as a nation leaving the EU than remaining, but I think it is worth it'. At least that would be honest and principled - I'd very, very strongly disagree, but a least that would engender some degree of respect. But that isn't what I am hearing - what I am hearing is head in the sands refusal to accept the possibility of any downsides and a patronising dismissal of experts, and those who might be concerned, regardless of how they voted.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2018, 09:32:13 PM by ProfessorDavey »

jakswan

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1609 on: February 16, 2018, 07:35:37 AM »
The difficulty I have with too many Brexiteers is a lack of honesty and also actually a lack of guts to stand up and be counted for what they consider to be their principles.

I would have more respect if they would have the guts to say 'yes I accept that we will be worse off individually and as a nation leaving the EU than remaining, but I think it is worth it'. At least that would be honest and principled - I'd very, very strongly disagree, but a least that would engender some degree of respect. But that isn't what I am hearing - what I am hearing is head in the sands refusal to accept the possibility of any downsides and a patronising dismissal of experts, and those who might be concerned, regardless of how they voted.

Sure we might be worse off but In think it is worth it. It cuts both ways on the other side remaniacs paint a picture of doom, I've said before if Cameron had said look it's not perfect, economy wont be as healthy overall I suggest remain, then I think remain would have won.

I think there is a hardcore on both sides, seemed to me remain, instead of calm argument did exactly what you have done, 'I, Davey don't respect these people', frankly who cares about who you respect.
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Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1610 on: February 16, 2018, 08:25:26 AM »
Sure we might be worse off but In think it is worth it. It cuts both ways on the other side remaniacs paint a picture of doom, I've said before if Cameron had said look it's not perfect, economy wont be as healthy overall I suggest remain, then I think remain would have won.

I think there is a hardcore on both sides, seemed to me remain, instead of calm argument did exactly what you have done, 'I, Davey don't respect these people', frankly who cares about who you respect.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1611 on: February 16, 2018, 08:30:24 AM »
It cuts both ways on the other side remaniacs paint a picture of doom
Sorry - there is no equivalence whatsoever. Firstly I disagree that remainers are painting a picture of doom.

But secondly, and crucially, the concerns of those you describe as remainiacs, for example on the economy, have an extremely strong evidence base. As far as I am aware every one of the countless forecasts by all sorts of organisations indicates we will be worse off leaving than remaining. Remainers base their concerns on facts and evidence. The Brexiteers 'we will be fine' fantasy is based not on fact or evidence, but on faith - indeed many have actively chosen to ignore any evidence that doesn't fit with their dogma.

To use an analogy - remainers are like those with concerns over climate change (clearly evidence based), brexiteers are like climate change deniers.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1612 on: February 16, 2018, 08:39:32 AM »
Sure we might be worse off ...
might, surely you mean will.

Indeed we are already worse off as since Brexit our growth (for example in 2017) has been so weak that we just about the the bottom of the heap of developed economies, while before the vote we were close to the top.

But if you are now accepting we will be worse off why have you spent the past year continually denying that we will be worse off, by deliberately ignoring that fact that it is the comparison rather than the absolute which is key.

In think it is worth it.
What on earth would be 'worth it' about no longer being part of arguably the most successful cooperative international organisation on the planet, that would justify being poorer individually and as a nation (which of course means less investment into services etc unless we pay more tax or borrow more).

jakswan

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1613 on: February 16, 2018, 09:33:28 AM »
Sorry - there is no equivalence whatsoever. Firstly I disagree that remainers are painting a picture of doom.

Well its subjective but 'putting a bomb under our economy' is quite doom like.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/06/david-cameron-brexit-would-detonate-bomb-under-uk-economy

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But secondly, and crucially, the concerns of those you describe as remainiacs, for example on the economy, have an extremely strong evidence base. As far as I am aware every one of the countless forecasts by all sorts of organisations indicates we will be worse off leaving than remaining. Remainers base their concerns on facts and evidence. The Brexiteers 'we will be fine' fantasy is based not on fact or evidence, but on faith - indeed many have actively chosen to ignore any evidence that doesn't fit with their dogma.

Yes I would define remainiacs as those that keep saying the same things over and over like the campaign is still going on. If you don't want Brexit to happen then another referendum should be their focus.

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To use an analogy - remainers are like those with concerns over climate change (clearly evidence based), brexiteers are like climate change deniers.

As I said I can see both sides, I would support another vote and be in favour of Norway type deal and could quite easily have voted the other way.  Had the remain campaign been conducted differently I think it would have turned out differently.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
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jakswan

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1614 on: February 16, 2018, 09:36:39 AM »
might, surely you mean will.

Indeed we are already worse off as since Brexit our growth (for example in 2017) has been so weak that we just about the the bottom of the heap of developed economies, while before the vote we were close to the top.

But if you are now accepting we will be worse off why have you spent the past year continually denying that we will be worse off, by deliberately ignoring that fact that it is the comparison rather than the absolute which is key.

They are forecasts, read my signature, all forecasts have predicted that we will be richer than we are now if we leave the EU, had they predicted recession I might have voted differently. What is key is up to the voter to decide not for you to dictate. 

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What on earth would be 'worth it' about no longer being part of arguably the most successful cooperative international organisation on the planet, that would justify being poorer individually and as a nation (which of course means less investment into services etc unless we pay more tax or borrow more).

Bringing back decision making closer to the people who are affected by that decision.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
- Voltaire

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1615 on: February 16, 2018, 10:02:10 AM »
They are forecasts, read my signature, all forecasts have predicted that we will be richer than we are now if we leave the EU, had they predicted recession I might have voted differently. What is key is up to the voter to decide not for you to dictate.
There you go again with the meaningless 'predicted that we will be richer than we are now if we leave the EU' - over what timescale , using what baseline etc. The key is the comparison between the two scenarios - leave and remain.

And actually you are incorrect - several of the predictions suggested there may be a recession caused by brexit - in other words 2 quarters of negative growth. And there may still be seeing as we haven't actually left yet. In fact had it not been for the UK economy being buoyed up by a booming global economy through 2017 we could already have seen one caused just by the uncertainty over the vote to leave, as growth in the first 2 quarters of 2017 was just 0.2% and 0.3% even riding on the coattails of a global boom. The average of the G20 countries was 0.8 and 0.9%. We are now at the bottom of the G7 in terms of growth rate.


jakswan

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1617 on: February 16, 2018, 04:47:32 PM »
There you go again with the meaningless 'predicted that we will be richer than we are now if we leave the EU' - over what timescale , using what baseline etc. The key is the comparison between the two scenarios - leave and remain

Again what is key is up to the voter to not for you to dictate.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
- Voltaire

Nearly Sane

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1618 on: February 16, 2018, 04:49:41 PM »
Again what is key is up to the voter to not for you to dictate.
where is Prof D trying to 'dictate' here?

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1619 on: February 16, 2018, 07:14:38 PM »
Again what is key is up to the voter to not for you to dictate.
What are you on about - last time I looked whether the economy is doing better or worse outside the EU compared to being a member isn't determined by a vote. What planet are you on?

jeremyp

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1620 on: February 16, 2018, 09:40:37 PM »
You need lessons in how democracy works.
No,, really I don't. Democracy is not having a vote and then deciding it is set in stone for all time.
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I think the 27 how a more mature attitude towards Brexit than you, if not we should leave anyway.
Can you explain why having a mature attitude towards Brexit is incompatible with regarding the uK as a political enemy?
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1621 on: February 16, 2018, 09:48:21 PM »
No,, really I don't. Democracy is not having a vote and then deciding it is set in stone for all time.
Indeed - the whole point about democracy is that you can make a choice and later decide to change your mind. That's why we have elections every 5 years or so.

jakswan

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1622 on: February 16, 2018, 10:25:31 PM »
What are you on about - last time I looked whether the economy is doing better or worse outside the EU compared to being a member isn't determined by a vote. What planet are you on?

Many forecasts predicted that growth would be slower if we left EU, but that we would still grow.

So it can spun two ways:-

1. If we leave the EU we will be poorer compared to remain.
2. If we leave the EU we will still be richer than we are now.

Both a factually correct statements but are spun to win an argument, clearly you think the first is 'key' I think the second is 'key' and we both voted accordingly.

I did not claim a vote had anything directly to do with the performance of the economy.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
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jakswan

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1623 on: February 16, 2018, 10:27:34 PM »
No,, really I don't. Democracy is not having a vote and then deciding it is set in stone for all time.

If I vote a certain way I'm not doing anything with your money which is what you claimed.

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Can you explain why having a mature attitude towards Brexit is incompatible with regarding the uK as a political enemy?

Why would the EU regard the UK as being a political enemy?
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.
- Voltaire

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Brexit - the next steps
« Reply #1624 on: February 16, 2018, 11:44:14 PM »
If I vote a certain way I'm not doing anything with your money which is what you claimed.
If you vote in a particular way and that results in changes in policies which make people poorer then that is, in part, your responsibility. You own that decision and you own the consequences that arise from that decision.