Author Topic: Brexit - the next steps (Read 419278 times)

jakswan · « **Reply #1675 on:** March 05, 2018, 12:50:53 PM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on March 05, 2018, 09:38:12 AM

But we wouldn't need to with large parts of the world as the EU already has those deals in place which we would benefit from.

And we would be able to negotiate new deals alongside the EU, who due to their economic power will always be able to strike better deals than the UK could alone.

So fast forward 4 years the Trump nightmare a memory and democrat gets in, TTIP gets back on the agenda, the UK doesn't want to open up the NHS to US companies but the EU does the deal anyway.

Doing deals is not about economic power its about doing a deal right for your economy, in fact you could argue its easier to do a free trade deal the smaller you are.

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #1676 on:** March 05, 2018, 01:13:54 PM »

Quote from: jakswan on March 05, 2018, 12:50:53 PM

So fast forward 4 years the Trump nightmare a memory and democrat gets in, TTIP gets back on the agenda, the UK doesn't want to open up the NHS to US companies but the EU does the deal anyway.

Doing deals is not about economic power its about doing a deal right for your economy, in fact you could argue its easier to do a free trade deal the smaller you are.

We wont be in any position to be negotiating any better trade deals with anyone for a long, long time as we will be playing catch up to try to recreate the current trade deals that we currently enjoy as part of the EU (with both EU countries and many, many other countries across the globe) which will be wiped out on the day we leave the EU, unless we remain in the single market/customs union.

Walt Zingmatilder · « **Reply #1677 on:** March 05, 2018, 03:03:31 PM »

Quote from: jakswan on March 05, 2018, 12:40:10 PM

Walk me through that how is it going to come about?

You know how certain Davey is about how Brexit will be bad news, everyone to the right of Nick Clegg thinks that Corbyn will be a disaster to such a scale that will make Brexit bad news irrelevant.

How irrelevent can losing your Job be?

jakswan · « **Reply #1678 on:** March 05, 2018, 04:36:46 PM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on March 05, 2018, 01:13:54 PM

We wont be in any position to be negotiating any better trade deals with anyone for a long, long time as we will be playing catch up to try to recreate the current trade deals that we currently enjoy as part of the EU (with both EU countries and many, many other countries across the globe) which will be wiped out on the day we leave the EU, unless we remain in the single market/customs union.

You seem to have evaded the question.

Walt Zingmatilder · « **Reply #1679 on:** March 05, 2018, 05:18:30 PM »

FT reports that US to offer UK a worse deal on air transport access than it already has with the EU.

Walt Zingmatilder · « **Reply #1680 on:** March 05, 2018, 05:42:25 PM »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/05/airbus-may-leave-uk-unless-there-is-urgent-clarity-on-brexit-trade

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #1681 on:** March 05, 2018, 06:13:24 PM »

Quote from: Private Frazer on March 05, 2018, 05:42:25 PM

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/05/airbus-may-leave-uk-unless-there-is-urgent-clarity-on-brexit-trade

How very capitalist of you!

Walt Zingmatilder · « **Reply #1682 on:** March 06, 2018, 01:29:38 PM »

Quote from: Nearly Sane on March 05, 2018, 06:13:24 PM

How very capitalist of you!

Vauxhall chief gives Brexit warning

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43300201

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #1683 on:** March 06, 2018, 02:03:42 PM »

Quote from: jakswan on March 05, 2018, 04:36:46 PM

You seem to have evaded the question.

Let's revisit your question:

'So fast forward 4 years the Trump nightmare a memory (hypothetical 1) and democrat gets in (hypothetical 2), TTIP gets back on the agenda (hypothetical 3), the UK doesn't want to open up the NHS to US companies (hypothetical 4) but the EU does the deal anyway (hypothetical 5).'

So you are asking me my views on a scenario based on 5, yup count them, 5 hypotheticals. Completely pointless. But to answer your pointless 5 hypotheticals scenario - if we felt strongly about it, we could leave the customs union at that point or negotiate an opt out to those area we don't like (as is already the case for customs union members). And anyhow, your hypotheticals are misplaced as the concerns about TTIP are about opening up service provision while the customs union is about goods.

jakswan · « **Reply #1684 on:** March 06, 2018, 02:24:57 PM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on March 06, 2018, 02:03:42 PM

Let's revisit your question:

'So fast forward 4 years the Trump nightmare a memory (hypothetical 1) and democrat gets in (hypothetical 2), TTIP gets back on the agenda (hypothetical 3), the UK doesn't want to open up the NHS to US companies (hypothetical 4) but the EU does the deal anyway (hypothetical 5).'

So you are asking me my views on a scenario based on 5, yup count them, 5 hypotheticals. Completely pointless. But to answer your pointless 5 hypotheticals scenario - if we felt strongly about it, we could leave the customs union at that point or negotiate an opt out to those area we don't like (as is already the case for customs union members). And anyhow, your hypotheticals are misplaced as the concerns about TTIP are about opening up service provision while the customs union is about goods.

It not beyond the realms of possibility that the EU negotiate a deal that we don't want to be part of. In any event according to you we will just negotiate an opt out, how many other countries that are members of the customs union have opt-outs?

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #1685 on:** March 06, 2018, 03:19:28 PM »

Quote from: jakswan on March 06, 2018, 02:24:57 PM

how many other countries that are members of the customs union have opt-outs?

In effect, pretty well all of them.

The EU member states can effectively veto a deal, so that precludes anything they will not accept being foisted on them.

As far as I am aware there are only 4 separate non-EU states that are part of the customs union, but as far as I can see pretty well all have opt-outs. Examples include Turkey (opt out on food, agriculture, government procurement), Andorra (opt out on agriculture) and San Marino (opt out on coal and steel).

So that means that of 32 states 31 have opt outs or the ability to veto a decision.

If San Marino can get an opt out on coal and steel and Turkey can on Government procurement, it seems more than plausible that the UK could on the NHS (albeit once again it isn't really relevant as the customs union is about goods, not service provision).

jakswan · « **Reply #1686 on:** March 06, 2018, 05:23:48 PM »

Quote from: ProfessorDavey on March 06, 2018, 03:19:28 PM

In effect, pretty well all of them.

The EU member states can effectively veto a deal, so that precludes anything they will not accept being foisted on them.

As far as I am aware there are only 4 separate non-EU states that are part of the customs union, but as far as I can see pretty well all have opt-outs. Examples include Turkey (opt out on food, agriculture, government procurement), Andorra (opt out on agriculture) and San Marino (opt out on coal and steel).

So that means that of 32 states 31 have opt outs or the ability to veto a decision.

If San Marino can get an opt out on coal and steel and Turkey can on Government procurement, it seems more than plausible that the UK could on the NHS (albeit once again it isn't really relevant as the customs union is about goods, not service provision).

Apparently Turkey was to be excluded from TTIP anyway so maybe my point was moot.

I'm comfortable with Customs Union and single market as long as political union ends.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #1687 on:** March 06, 2018, 05:28:30 PM »

Two 'big' speeches and little effect on the polling

ProfessorDavey · « **Reply #1688 on:** March 06, 2018, 06:22:30 PM »

Quote from: jakswan on March 06, 2018, 05:23:48 PM

Apparently Turkey was to be excluded from TTIP anyway so maybe my point was moot.

Indeed it was and even more so as the concerns over TTIP were about access as service provider, which isn't part of the customs union in any case as it isn't about goods.

Harrowby Hall · « **Reply #1689 on:** March 07, 2018, 09:27:56 AM »

Potential Brexit developments, announced over the last couple of days:

Possible withdrawal of Airbus wing manufacture from Bristol and North Wales. This would result in the loss of world-class aviation engineering capability from the UK.

Possible closure of Vauxhall production plant at Ellesmere Port. Since Vauhall is now part of Peugeot SA this should come as no surprise.

Ryanair and Lufthansa making noises about withdrawing services.

Stunts or genuine threats?

jeremyp · « **Reply #1690 on:** March 07, 2018, 06:01:54 PM »

Quote from: jakswan on March 05, 2018, 12:50:53 PM

So fast forward 4 years the Trump nightmare a memory and democrat gets in, TTIP gets back on the agenda, the UK doesn't want to open up the NHS to US companies but the EU does the deal anyway.

Well with our veto we could stop that...

... oh wait, we won't have one by then.

Well done Brexiteers. You've fucked us over again.

jeremyp · « **Reply #1691 on:** March 07, 2018, 06:06:55 PM »

Quote from: Harrowby Hall on March 07, 2018, 09:27:56 AM

Potential Brexit developments, announced over the last couple of days:

Possible withdrawal of Airbus wing manufacture from Bristol and North Wales. This would result in the loss of world-class aviation engineering capability from the UK.

Possible closure of Vauxhall production plant at Ellesmere Port. Since Vauhall is now part of Peugeot SA this should come as no surprise.

Ryanair and Lufthansa making noises about withdrawing services.

Stunts or genuine threats?

Airbus and Vauxhall are genuine threats. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Vauxhall were to move out even if we miraculously stay in the EU, because they are, as you say, part of a French company now.

Ryanair and Lufthansa will not leave unless people suddenly stop wanting to travel by air. However, Bexit will lead to an uptick in air travel because UK driving licences will no longer be valid in the mainland EU.

Well done Brexiteers, your small minded insularity fucks us over again.

Aruntraveller · « **Reply #1692 on:** March 10, 2018, 10:21:28 AM »

Gary Younge in Ippy's favourite newspaper. Worth reading despite that

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/09/brexit-eu-democratic-britain?CMP=fb_gu

Walt Zingmatilder · « **Reply #1693 on:** March 11, 2018, 02:41:11 PM »

Time to boycott French products?

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/mar/11/normandy-advert-to-seduce-post-brexit-uk-firms-banned

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #1694 on:** March 13, 2018, 07:41:02 PM »

Liam Fox and the EU up a tree....

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/brexiteer-liam-fox-will-fight-trumps-steel-tariffsworking-closely-with-eu/13/03/

jeremyp · « **Reply #1695 on:** March 14, 2018, 06:16:10 PM »

At least with Brexit we will save lots of money.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/13/uk-save-money-brexit-obr-divorce-bill

Oh, not until 2064 you say?

Brexiteers fucking it up with style.

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #1696 on:** March 19, 2018, 01:54:25 PM »

The power of Wetherspoon's

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/932782/Brexit-News-Wetherspoon-Brexit-News-Tim-Martins-Brussels-trade-war

Nearly Sane · « **Reply #1697 on:** March 19, 2018, 02:07:20 PM »

Although at 1.40, Euroland is very tempting.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-43430964

wigginhall · « **Reply #1698 on:** March 19, 2018, 04:50:36 PM »

It looks as if UK has conceded on most points in the transition deal, e.g., fishing, freedom of movement, divorce payment, primacy of EU law. If this is correct, Mrs May and Davis have an interesting way of doing business - sound tough, but give in on most things. If this is correct, we might be heading for an EEA-lite deal in the end. But not called 'European' for fear of upsetting the Ultras.

Dicky Underpants · « **Reply #1699 on:** March 20, 2018, 02:54:37 PM »

Quote from: wigginhall on March 19, 2018, 04:50:36 PM

It looks as if UK has conceded on most points in the transition deal, e.g., fishing, freedom of movement, divorce payment, primacy of EU law. If this is correct, Mrs May and Davis have an interesting way of doing business - sound tough, but give in on most things. If this is correct, we might be heading for an EEA-lite deal in the end. But not called 'European' for fear of upsetting the Ultras.

Even an Irish Sea border seems likely - rather than the N. Ireland/Republic border - despite May having stated categorically that that will not happen.

News:

Author Topic: Brexit - the next steps (Read 419278 times)