Brexit - the next steps

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Of course we'd be better as a country. But thats not really much of an ask, you could put a donkey in No. 10 and we would be better off in terms of leadership.

However, we need someone to articulate clearly what they expect Brexit to look like. No politician I can think of has done this, granted thats mainly because it is such a clusterfuck that it is not possible. But still, a vague clue would be appreciated.

Yes it is a clusterfuck and i'm afraid that interest in candiduture for leadership is inversly proportional to loud and clear positioning on Brexit vis Mogg and Umanna.

[wigginhall]

I think Trent is right, that it's actually impossible  to articulate a clear view of Brexit, since so many incompatible things are being subsumed into it.   It's clearly impossible for companies to stop exporting and importing with the EU, but as a third country, we can expect some kind of non-tariff barriers.  These could become severe, if there are checks on lorries, cargoes, drivers, provenance, and so on.    If each lorry takes  a few minutes, result, chaos at Dover, or standstill.

So they are trying to find a way round this, without staying in the single market.   Hence Mrs May's talk of frictionless trade, but nobody can really describe this, without being in the EEA, and in addition, why would the EU accept it?   It does sound like leaving the gym, but asking to use the pool  every morning.   

The Ultras are supposedly looking for a crash out, not a deal, resulting in tax haven status, with heavy deregulation.   This is another right wing fantasy, and one result might be cancelling social services.   

Maybe in the end, there will be a deal, but they are leaving it very late.   They have got into something that nobody understands, and nobody can find a way out of.   Of course, the EEA provides a solution, but that has now become  ideologically unpleasant for the right wing.

[Nearly Sane]

Not sure if the by election today will really be anything more than a damp squib but who knows in this febrile climate. I am tempted by Charles Carey's description


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44480767

[Walt Zingmatilder]

 
The Ultras are supposedly looking for a crash out, not a deal, resulting in tax haven status, with heavy deregulation.   This is another right wing fantasy, and one result might be cancelling social services.   

That's a Tory fantasy full stop.

[wigginhall]

Well, Tory fantasies are being peddled by a toxic press, which is campaigning against the single market and freedom of movement.   In fact, staying in the EEA would enable the UK to take its time, and work out, slowly, various kinds of deals.  But the right wing have said no, so we are stuck.  I think quite a lot of people are realizing that crashing out with no deal could be catastrophic, but supposedly, that's what the Ultras want. 

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Well, Tory fantasies are being peddled by a toxic press, which is campaigning against the single market and freedom of movement.   In fact, staying in the EEA would enable the UK to take its time, and work out, slowly, various kinds of deals.  But the right wing have said no, so we are stuck.  I think quite a lot of people are realizing that crashing out with no deal could be catastrophic, but supposedly, that's what the Ultras want.

I think everyone knows that the Conservative party want hard brexit with the exception of a few remainers who May seems perfectly content and safe to fuck over.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Rees Mogg company decamps to Ireland citing Brexit

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-jacob-rees-mogg-scm-ireland-city-move-eu-withdrawal-dublin-a8398041.html

[Walt Zingmatilder]

As expected May fucks over the rebels.

[Nearly Sane]

And? Given that they up anything on the Meaningful Vote for a pess of mottage, how confident are you that they will vote to bring down the govt? And what about the Labour MPs who will vote to save the govt?

[jeremyp]

I think Trent is right, that it's actually impossible  to articulate a clear view of Brexit,

Rubbish.

Brexit should not be happening. We should stay in the EU.

There you go, I just articulated a clear view on Brexit.

[Aruntraveller]

Rubbish.

Brexit should not be happening. We should stay in the EU.

There you go, I just articulated a clear view on Brexit.

Well, of course. I thought you knew that I think that is a given. The point is that wishing for this is useless.
 
Some kind of 'leaving the EU' will happen, however much I think it is the single most stupid thing the people of our countries have enabled.

What would be really useful is a pointer to what it actually will be like. And a unified answer came there none from any of the main parties or anyone else for that matter, and I think that was the point wigginhall was getting at.

[jeremyp]

What would be really useful is a pointer to what it actually will be like. And a unified answer came there none from any of the main parties or anyone else for that matter, and I think that was the point wigginhall was getting at.

This has been the whole problem from the start. Nobody actually thought about what kind of leaving we would want until after the referendum. In fact, I doubt if many of the leave voters even considered what options there were and which one they would want.

In retrospect, what we should have done was have an open debate about what to do and only start the leave proceedings when some sort of consensus was arrived at.

[SteveH]

Not sure if the by election today will really be anything more than a damp squib but who knows in this febrile climate. I am tempted by Charles Carey's description


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44480767

Impressive list of candidates.

[Harrowby Hall]

Some kind of 'leaving the EU' will happen, however much I think it is the single most stupid thing the people of our countries have enabled.

Indeed. And the most stupid aspect of the whole tragedy ...  it is being done - primarily - for party management purposes. Theresa May will - in her own lifetime - find herself in modern history textbooks described as the most stupid prime minister since Eden (the garden, that is, not heart-throb Anthony).

[ProfessorDavey]

Indeed. And the most stupid aspect of the whole tragedy ...  it is being done - primarily - for party management purposes. Theresa May will - in her own lifetime - find herself in modern history textbooks described as the most stupid prime minister since Eden (the garden, that is, not heart-throb Anthony).

I disagree - she will be remembered as the most stupid prime minister since ... David Cameron. Don't forget the whole brexit debacle is entirely his fault. He was the one who caved in to his own party right wing and promised a referendum on something he and his government didn't want to change, on an issue that even as late as 2015 was a significant issue for less than one in ten of the population.

[Nearly Sane]

So apart from it being not a Brexit benefit, and needing an as yet undescribed tax rise, and not really enough to raise spending on terms of demand, May's announcement is great?

[Rhiannon]

I disagree - she will be remembered as the most stupid prime minister since ... David Cameron. Don't forget the whole brexit debacle is entirely his fault. He was the one who caved in to his own party right wing and promised a referendum on something he and his government didn't want to change, on an issue that even as late as 2015 was a significant issue for less than one in ten of the population.

His hand was forced by procedural changes. It may have happened anyway, but those left him with far less room to move.

[ProfessorDavey]

His hand was forced by procedural changes. It may have happened anyway, but those left him with far less room to move.

I'm not sure what procedural changes forced his hand - there was no obligation to hold a referendum - he chose to call one.

[Harrowby Hall]

I have always considered Cameron to be a fool rather than an idiot. 

May is patently out of her depth. She has leaped into Brexit without understanding what it means, how it can be managed, what its effects will be, what it will look like and without any stated objectives. She even calls a general election - and loses ... though not as badly as the other party leaders. She then behaves as though she has had a great victory.

And as for holding hands with Donald Trump ...

[Gordon]

The HoL send the problem that TM tried to fudge, and she couldn't even get that right, back to the HoC.

Pity we have a Labour party that is split since, with just a few Tory rebels, they could defeat the government on this: that would be interesting!.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44518702

[SteveH]

Indeed. And the most stupid aspect of the whole tragedy ...  it is being done - primarily - for party management purposes. Theresa May will - in her own lifetime - find herself in modern history textbooks described as the most stupid prime minister since Eden (the garden, that is, not heart-throb Anthony).

'Twas Cameron who got us into this mess, with his cynical and wholly unnecessary referendum. May just inherited it. She is nevertheless remarkably incompetent.

[Nearly Sane]

Grieve amendment defeated 319 - 303. Grieve voting with govt.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-44521613

[Harrowby Hall]

May just inherited it. She is nevertheless remarkably incompetent.

I think that you are letting May off the hook, here. She is certainly "remarkably incompetent", but she is also dangerously stupid.

She is putting party interest before the national interest. She has it in her head that she can capture the permanent support of the 3.88 million people who voted for UKIP then the Conservative Party will remain the party of government in perpetuity. Her every move is concerned with increasing the size of her party's vote - wherever the support comes from.

The consequences of this action do not concern her. She has no children - she has no reason to be concerned about the future.

[Nearly Sane]

The UK Foreign Secretary


http://www.thenational.scot/news/16310206.EU_diplomats_reveal_Boris_Johnson_said__f__k_business__over_Brexit_fears/

[Nearly Sane]

Two years on from the morning after, and we appear to know less.