Brexit - the next steps

[Spud]

May wants the EU to abandon the ideas about the back stop that she had signed up to, and is lying about not having agreed to this.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

Could you remind me what ideas she signed up to, and when? That's confusing me.

[Nearly Sane]

Could you remind me what ideas she signed up to, and when? That's confusing me.

Covered in the recent replies on this thread from me. Just reread.

[Spud]

Covered in the recent replies on this thread from me. Just reread.

By ' the ideas about the back stop that she had signed up to' do you mean ideas in the Chequers plan? Sorry for being dumb.

[Nearly Sane]

By ' the ideas about the back stop that she had signed up to' do you mean ideas in the Chequers plan? Sorry for being dumb.

No, the backstop was an agreement with the EU, that there was still discussion over, again reread earlier posts. The Chequers plan was still in line with that discussion, the ERG amendment accepted by the govt which broke the Chequers plan is one of the issues. Again all of that is covered in earlier posts. Can you please just reread them and then ask about things you don't get rather than ask for things already covered?

BTW it would be good when I ask questions in posts that you don't ignore them and just ask more questions. I am sure you don't mean to be rude but given that I am attempting to answer your questions, that you seem not to even recognise any of mine makes it feel as if you are not interest in participating in discussion.

[Aruntraveller]

Something that is worth bearing in mind when referring to WTO rules, is that it is not as simple as we simply fall into those rules as some kind of trade deal backstop. This article is from 2016, but there has not been as far as I can find out, any attempt to clarify this matter on the part of the UK government, or anybody else for that matter. There could be considerable opposition from other countries within the WTO to plans to accommodate the UK. See here:

https://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-simple-about-uk-regaining-wto-status-post-brexit

[Rhiannon]

My hovercraft is full of eels



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-paper-german-translation-white-chequers-deal-a8454561.html

Even my kids know not to rely on google translate.

[Spud]

No, the backstop was an agreement with the EU, that there was still discussion over, again reread earlier posts. The Chequers plan was still in line with that discussion, the ERG amendment accepted by the govt which broke the Chequers plan is one of the issues. Again all of that is covered in earlier posts. Can you please just reread them and then ask about things you don't get rather than ask for things already covered?

BTW it would be good when I ask questions in posts that you don't ignore them and just ask more questions. I am sure you don't mean to be rude but given that I am attempting to answer your questions, that you seem not to even recognise any of mine makes it feel as if you are not interest in participating in discussion.

Gotcha. I do apologize - I ended up reading about how Ireland first came to be split - I figured that underlies it all. As I understand it, you are talking about the 'joint report' from December, which I've now downloaded. I now get how the amendments to the chequers plan might break the agreements in the joint report (which I haven't yet properly read).

Regarding your question about it being the EU's fault - yes it looks like I'm wrong there.

It might be better to say Northern Ireland must choose between two blocks (Britain and European Union) that have conflicting interests.

[jeremyp]

That the backstop may be unworkable due to UK politics isn't something that changes the fact that it was signed up to by the UK govt and has now been reneged on.

The UK government seems to be signing up to any number of unworkable ideas at the moment. One might almost suspect they do not know what they are doing.

Either they shouldn't have agreed it, or they should stick with it.

Yes, it's a mess, isn't it.

[jeremyp]

But that's the EU being unreasonable.

No it isn't. And, in fact, if we have open trade with the EU, it is in our best interests to have open borders for workers too, otherwise British companies will be hamstrung by not having access to the same side labour market as EU countries.

The free-trade-in-goods-only part of the Chequers plan sorts the problem of the Irish border, so May can say she isn't breaking the agreement she signed up to regarding that.

So goods can move across the border freely but not people. How's that going to work out?

[Spud]

No it isn't. And, in fact, if we have open trade with the EU, it is in our best interests to have open borders for workers too, otherwise British companies will be hamstrung by not having access to the same side labour market as EU countries.


So goods can move across the border freely but not people. How's that going to work out?

Theoretically the UK is unique among the EU countries because the English language is so widely used. This could mean that more people will want to work here than in other member countries. So the UK needs an immigration cap, but the EU won't agree to that.

Allowing workers to come to the UK for a limited time, and/or capping the number of workers, would mean goods could move across the border.

[Rhiannon]

Theoretically the UK is unique among the EU countries because the English language is so widely used. This could mean that more people will want to work here than in other member countries. So the UK needs an immigration cap, but the EU won't agree to that.

Allowing workers to come to the UK for a limited time, and/or capping the number of workers, would mean goods could move across the border.

More people want to work here because their are jobs available. These range from unskilled but hard effort jobs such as picking crops, to highly skilled jobs in the NHS. The 'cap' that you mention has prevented workers from coming here to do both, meaning crops are rotting, farms are going bust and the NHS is short of staff which is impacting on patient care.

[Sriram]

Trump has been saying things about Brexit and Britain....

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/21/opinions/britain-turmoil-opinion-intl/index.html

Some people feel he is right....

[jeremyp]

Theoretically the UK is unique among the EU countries because the English language is so widely used. This could mean that more people will want to work here than in other member countries.

Aren’t we the lucky ones.

Unfortunately, you are wrong and Rhiannon is right: people come here because there are jobs available for them. If the jobs go, so do the fopreigners.Do you remember the 80’s? Back then, immigration was negative because there were no jobs and British people went elsewhere e.g. Germany. People forget that free movement of Labour goes in both directions.

[jeremyp]

Trump has been saying things about Brexit and Britain....

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/21/opinions/britain-turmoil-opinion-intl/index.html

Some people feel he is right....

About what? If you mean “Britain’s in turmoil”, yes he is right but everybody already knows that. Congratulating Trump on that is like congratulating him for saying the sky is blue.

I know you’re probably a bit removed from what is going on here, so it is understandable you are not completely in touch. Brexit has turned into an utter shit storm.

[Spud]

Aren’t we the lucky ones.

Unfortunately, you are wrong and Rhiannon is right: people come here because there are jobs available for them. If the jobs go, so do the fopreigners.Do you remember the 80’s? Back then, immigration was negative because there were no jobs and British people went elsewhere e.g. Germany. People forget that free movement of Labour goes in both directions.

I agree people come here because of job availability. That doesn't negate my point about the english language, though - and it also leads to disproportionate immigration when relatives and friends are brought over, eventually putting more pressure on schools, nhs etc. In truth, british born workers are becoming less fit (obesity crisis) so brexit could improve overall health.

[Rhiannon]

I agree people come here because of job availability. That doesn't negate my point about the english language, though - and it also leads to disproportionate immigration when relatives and friends are brought over, eventually putting more pressure on schools, nhs etc. In truth, british born workers are becoming less fit (obesity crisis) so brexit could improve overall health.

That's one of the most original arguments I've seen for Brexit. It's also one of the most ludicrous, but hats off for imagination there.

[Aruntraveller]

I agree people come here because of job availability. That doesn't negate my point about the english language, though - and it also leads to disproportionate immigration when relatives and friends are brought over, eventually putting more pressure on schools, nhs etc. In truth, british born workers are becoming less fit (obesity crisis) so brexit could improve overall health.

I don't mean to be unkind but you are not getting it. The very people who voted for Brexit in some areas are the same ones who will not, definitely will not, get out of bed to pick strawberries or lettuce or any other crop, in say, Lincolnshire. Preferring instead to sit on the sofa in the morning watching Jeremy Kyle. Now to an extent I can see their point, it is low paid back breaking work. But the availability of foreign workers prepared to accept lower pay is what brings your relatively cheap fruit & veg to your local Tesco's (other supermarkets are available). Are any of us prepared to pay more for our fruit & veg when so many people have been squeezed for the last 8 years of austerity?

What's that I hear you say, crude stereotype?

Maybe, but I have for a long time maintained that stereotypes exist for a reason.

[Sriram]

I don't mean to be unkind but you are not getting it. The very people who voted for Brexit in some areas are the same ones who will not, definitely will not, get out of bed to pick strawberries or lettuce or any other crop, in say, Lincolnshire. Preferring instead to sit on the sofa in the morning watching Jeremy Kyle. Now to an extent I can see their point, it is low paid back breaking work. But the availability of foreign workers prepared to accept lower pay is what brings your relatively cheap fruit & veg to your local Tesco's (other supermarkets are available). Are any of us prepared to pay more for our fruit & veg when so many people have been squeezed for the last 8 years of austerity?

What's that I hear you say, crude stereotype?

Maybe, but I have for a long time maintained that stereotypes exist for a reason.

Only of academic interest to me....but encouraging foreign migrants to come in just because they accept low paying manual jobs, could backfire in the long run.  In the next generation their children will not remain as low paid workers.  They will move up and take up high paid jobs as well....besides buying up houses and businesses. The locals could well be elbowed out.   Will they like it at that time?   

[wigginhall]

But the children of migrant workers are the locals.   My nephew is marrying a smashing Lithuanian girl, hurrah.

[Rhiannon]

Only of academic interest to me....but encouraging foreign migrants to come in just because they accept low paying manual jobs, could backfire in the long run.  In the next generation their children will not remain as low paid workers.  They will move up and take up high paid jobs as well....besides buying up houses and businesses. The locals could well be elbowed out.   Will they like it at that time?

It's always been this way, Sriram. What do you think the Indian community did when they arrived here after Amin threw them out of Uganda?

[Sriram]

It's always been this way, Sriram. What do you think the Indian community did when they arrived here after Amin threw them out of Uganda?

Ok...but helping out refugees is one thing and having a policy of welcoming migrants just to take up low level jobs is quite another thing. The former maybe a humane thing to do. The latter could be a short sighted policy.

[Rhiannon]

Ok...but helping out refugees is one thing and having a policy of welcoming migrants just to take up low level jobs is quite another thing. The former maybe a humane thing to do. The latter could be a short sighted policy.

So how do you suggest the crops get picked?

[wigginhall]

Labour shortages are common throughout the economy, in agriculture, catering, health,  building.   I suspect that if the flow of EU migrants slows, then non-EU migrants will take up the slack.  You can't simultaneously have an expanding economy with low unemployment and block immigration.  And unemployment is really low.

[Nearly Sane]

Dominic Raab, the new Brexit secretary, just told Marr: "Forgive me if I don’t keep a laser-like focus on the substance."


Er, no.

[jeremyp]

That doesn't negate my point about the english language, though

What? The language that is a fusion of Anglo-Saxon, Danish, Norman French, French, Latin etc etc etc?

and it also leads to disproportionate immigration when relatives and friends are brought over, eventually putting more pressure on schools, nhs etc.

And it would lead to disproportionate emigration in bad times.