Brexit - the next steps

[Rhiannon]

And in  Brexit is Shit...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/24/uk-eu-flights-would-cease-immediately-in-event-of-no-deal-brexit

[jakswan]

I think McDonnell is trying to avoid that, as they don't want to be tagged with denying the original vote.   

Maybe, or maybe it is that Socialism and the neo-liberal EU just don't get on.

[Gordon]

I'd have thought that any notions of 'respecting the referendum' are arguably flawed if it can be argued that the question asked was inadequate in the light if the details now emerging (such as the possible implications for air travel as noted in the link posted by Rhi earlier).

[Udayana]

I'd have thought that any notions of 'respecting the referendum' are arguably flawed if it can be argued that the question asked was inadequate in the light if the details now emerging (such as the possible implications for air travel as noted in the link posted by Rhi earlier).

Of-course they are flawed, and the question was clearly inadequate - but so what? Who is going back to change the outcome and how?
 

[wigginhall]

It depends on what happens next.   If a deal is still managed, I would think that discontent will die down.   If we are heading for no deal, and things look bad, e.g. no flights, lorries blocked at ports, who knows what could happen.  I haven't a clue.  Panic, maybe.  But surely, this puts huge pressure on them to do a deal, as no govt could survive.

[Gordon]

Of-course they are flawed, and the question was clearly inadequate - but so what? Who is going back to change the outcome and how?

It needs someone in the political arena to suggest that the basis of referendum (in or out) doesn't reflect the reality as it is now emerging - who would do so is another matter, since it seems we have long since descended into a divisive Remainers vs Brexiteers situation.

I'm not for labelling those who voted for Brexit as idiots but I do think they were misled into thinking it would be a walk in the park - 'be careful what you wish for' is apposite, as the cookie continues to crumble when it wasn't supposed to crumble (and it is a nice day for mixed metaphors).     

[SteveH]

. If Labour win, Brexit will be the least of our worries!

Oy!     

[jakswan]

It needs someone in the political arena to suggest that the basis of referendum (in or out) doesn't reflect the reality as it is now emerging - who would do so is another matter, since it seems we have long since descended into a divisive Remainers vs Brexiteers situation.

That is what the LibDems, many centrists on both Tory and Labour have said in the last couple of years, in fact its almost all they have said, over and over and over.

I'm not for labelling those who voted for Brexit as idiots but I do think they were misled into thinking it would be a walk in the park - 'be careful what you wish for' is apposite, as the cookie continues to crumble when it wasn't supposed to crumble (and it is a nice day for mixed metaphors).   

I expected Norway type deal I think that is the way May was leaning but planned a bigger majority so called an election so she could ignore the hard Brexiteers in her party, exactly the opposite happened.

May is saying that it will be her deal or no deal, everyone is expecting her to go if it gets voted down but then everyone had expected she be long gone by now.

[jakswan]

Oy!     

Not fond memories of the hard left.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWLN7rIby9s

[wigginhall]

Starmer said that any new referendum would not exclude remain, and, journos say, the conference crowd went wild.   The Tory press will be writing their "betrayal" accusations as we speak, ditto the Tory conference.   Enemy of the people!

[jeremyp]

I expected Norway type deal

In some ways the Norway type deal is the worst deal possible, even though, given that Brexit is happening, it is the deal I would have hoped for.

The Norway deal is being subject to EU regulations but giving up any say in what they are. I’m not surprised that the Brexiteers don’t like it.

[Rhiannon]

A true brexiteers wouldn't like it, no. But I bet some voted for Brexit thinking that some kind of 'Norway' deal would open up some kind of Utopia. 'Being like Norway' seems to be something that is sold as a way of government that we should aspire to.

[Rhiannon]

This really is getting scary.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/26/no-deal-brexit-will-be-catastrophic-say-british-farmers-national-farmers-union-eu

[wigginhall]

It is scary, and I get the sense of a govt not in control.   Then again, the pressure to do a deal is ratcheting up.

[The Accountant, OBE, KC]

I believe some of the people who voted Leave said any negative economic cost from that decision was worth it. The people who voted leave or who did not vote at all, because they did not believe the projected negative economic consequences at the point of leaving (that we were repeatedly warned about) would happen, will presumably learn from this experience that maybe they should look into issues more thoroughly before they vote.

I have no problem with people who campaign for a 2nd referendum now that the issues are better understood. As the results were so close and as we are a democracy with Parliamentary sovereignty my view is that people can campaign to change people's minds on single issue votes regardless of the outcome of previous votes, much like after an election people can "defy the wish of the people" and carry on campaigning for parties that lost the election - provided they have the funds and political will. If Remain had won I would expect Leave to carry on campaigning to Leave, if that's what they believe is in the best interests of Britain.

I believe there was less support for ending free movement before the 2008 crash, austerity measures and before the refugee crisis. My view is that if a flood of cheap labour at the lower end of the wage scale depressed earnings for the poorest, there were other ways of addressing that specific issue without losing much needed foreign  labour in other areas.

If our immigration and border control and NHS was run so badly that people from the EU who had no means to support themselves and no private health insurance were still being allowed into the country  despite the existing rules against this, the government could have made reforms to address this - including changing austerity measures so that funding to areas dealing with these issues were not cut. 

[Spud]

This really is getting scary.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/26/no-deal-brexit-will-be-catastrophic-say-british-farmers-national-farmers-union-eu

From the article,
“In theory the UK already has a plan as it meets all the regulations now, "
So the auditing process should have started as soon as Article 50 was triggered, surely?

[jakswan]

Starmer said that any new referendum would not exclude remain, and, journos say, the conference crowd went wild.   The Tory press will be writing their "betrayal" accusations as we speak, ditto the Tory conference.   Enemy of the people!

Clearly Corbyn etc attempt at placating the centre with 'all options are on the table' seems to be working. Corbyn has always been euro-sceptic and in his speech indicated that a deal that will get a parliamentary majority can get through, will divide both parties though.

[Nearly Sane]

Patrick Kielty eviscerating Boris Johnson

https://mobile.twitter.com/PatricKielty/status/1045782711816708096

[Gordon]

Patrick Kielty eviscerating Boris Johnson

https://mobile.twitter.com/PatricKielty/status/1045782711816708096

When you see the NI situation set out clearly in a step-by-step analysis like this it does make the Brexit look so nightmarish that you wonder how anyone who parrots 'good deal for the UK' actually thinks it this mythical 'good deal' is likely to happen.

It's like somebody gave the Brexit zealots a tin opener with the instruction 'use only on cans of worms'.

[Anchorman]

Patrick Kielty eviscerating Boris Johnson

https://mobile.twitter.com/PatricKielty/status/1045782711816708096

   


He's not wrong.
It's about tie these Westminster Tories actually listened to the people in NI - rather than their partners in bribery, the DUP.
The results of their politicing won't be a party split - it could break their less than prescious union at best, and cost lives at worst.
This is a brilliant article.

[jakswan]

Whilst I'm sure your collective hand wringing makes you all feel better does anyone else have a view on what is going to happen next.

May gets a deal, puts it before parliament, it gets voted down, we leave with no deal?

[Nearly Sane]

Whilst I'm sure your collective hand wringing makes you all feel better does anyone else have a view on what is going to happen next.

May gets a deal, puts it before parliament, it gets voted down, we leave with no deal?

Do you mean a view on what will happen, or what should happen?

[jakswan]

Do you mean a view on what will happen, or what should happen?

Will happen.

[Nearly Sane]

Mmm... I think that sort depends on the deal. I think you could get a deal that works in the EU and gets through but that is likely to push off the DUP, and then the govt falls at some point at the start of the transition.


In the case of no deal getting through, I think there will be some sort of fudge extending Article 50. That could lead to a leadership challenge which at this stage I think May would win. But it will injure her even further.

I think there are more than a few unknown unknowns out there though that could change anything almost instantaneously

[Anchorman]

Whilst I'm sure your collective hand wringing makes you all feel better does anyone else have a view on what is going to happen next.

May gets a deal, puts it before parliament, it gets voted down, we leave with no deal?

 



Unless there exists aeal which does not in any way, shape or form, affect the border between NI and the Republic, 'wringing of hands' will not be the first thing that comes to mind.
Wringing of blood soaked bandages will.
You can fire as many Tory trash drivel at the more hard line Republicans as you wish - it will not be stats, but emotions, which will govern them. Any border - be it real, cyber or whatever - will be seen as a barrier - They will not accept barriers.
I wish they would, but that is a pipe dream.
As yet, the bumbling idiots in this Westminster burach have not taken their middle class heads out of the sand long enough to realise it.