Brexit - the next steps

[jakswan]

That's a joke right?

Whom is making the arguement we should leave EU because opinion polls show majority support leaving.

[Aruntraveller]

Whom is making the arguement we should leave EU because opinion polls show majority support leaving.

Are you answering questions only you can hear?

[jeremyp]

Whom is making the arguement we should leave EU because opinion polls show majority support leaving.

You tell me. I have never claimed that anybody is making that argument.

I have heard many people claim that we need to leave the EU because the referendum was "democracy". However, it really only showed the will of the people on one particulate day in June 2016. The evidence, with Remain having an eight point lead in the polls, is that that will no longer exists.

[jakswan]

You tell me. I have never claimed that anybody is making that argument.

I have heard many people claim that we need to leave the EU because the referendum was "democracy". However, it really only showed the will of the people on one particulate day in June 2016. The evidence, with Remain having an eight point lead in the polls, is that that will no longer exists.

You implied that was the arguement from citing polls.

Ok so you are now arguing that the if the people vote and an opinion  polls comes in showing people would vote differently then you have to go back the people?

I don't agree but it is a valid argument.

[jeremyp]

You implied that was the arguement from citing polls.

No I didn't. I actually just said "the democracy argument". There was an implication, but given my posting history on this, you probably could have inferred the right one.

Ok so you are now arguing that the if the people vote and an opinion  polls comes in showing people would vote differently then you have to go back the people?

I am arguing that the "we had a referendum therefore we have to do it because democracy" argument is unsustainable. If the government were to decide to stop Brexit, I don't think it is something that can be used against them with any credibility.

[jakswan]

No I didn't. I actually just said "the democracy argument". There was an implication, but given my posting history on this, you probably could have inferred the right one.
I am arguing that the "we had a referendum therefore we have to do it because democracy" argument is unsustainable. If the government were to decide to stop Brexit, I don't think it is something that can be used against them with any credibility.

Yes I know you think that, the politician's don't though and since they are the ones with the power to stop Brexit it is their opinions that matter.

[jeremyp]

Yes I know you think that, the politician's don't though

And my point is that they are wrong to do so.

Anyway, it looks like at least one politician has seen the error of his ways

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46162114

[ProfessorDavey]

Yes I know you think that, the politician's don't though ...

Bit by bit we are seeing politicians changing their minds - latest being Jo Johnson. And there is only one direction of travel here.

[jeremyp]

Yes I know you think that, the politician's don't though and since they are the ones with the power to stop Brexit it is their opinions that matter.

Of late, it seems your entire argument boils down to "we must do Brexit because the politicians won't stop". Have you got anything more positive to say in its favour still left?

[Anchorman]

Of late, it seems your entire argument boils down to "we must do Brexit because the politicians won't stop". Have you got anything more positive to say in its favour still left?

   


Agrred.
That reminds me of the origins of WW1.
As one MP said....We must go to war....we have treaties to uphold, and gentlemen cannot rewrite them"

[jeremyp]

Agrred.
That reminds me of the origins of WW1.
As one MP said....We must go to war....we have treaties to uphold, and gentlemen cannot rewrite them"

Are you suggesting we should have reneged on our treaty with Belgium and that we should have turned our backs on our European allies?

[Anchorman]

Are you suggesting we should have reneged on our treaty with Belgium and that we should have turned our backs on our European allies?

   


With hindsight - a gift those who formulated the 'gentlemens agreements' which led to WW1did not have...the posturing gesures of imperial sabre rattling which led to the slaughter of so many disenfranchised cannon fodder in the trenches was preventable; as is the 'littkle englander'  attitude which infests Torysism and is so repugnant to those in my nation who rejected it in 2016.

[jeremyp]

 
With hindsight - a gift those who formulated the 'gentlemens agreements'

They were not gentlemen's agreements, they were international treaties.

which led to WW1did not have

Well I suppose it is progress that you acknowledge we have the advantage of knowing how bad the First World War was going to be.

the posturing gesures of imperial sabre rattling which led to the slaughter of so many disenfranchised cannon fodder in the trenches was preventable; as is the 'littkle englander'  attitude which infests Torysism and is so repugnant to those in my nation who rejected it in 2016.

You still haven't answered the question I posed. Should we have reneged on our obligations to our European friends?

It's obvious from our advantageous point of view that it would have been better for us to keep out of it or, if the Germans had knocked out France in the first few months of the war (as they nearly did). But I don't think it was politically (or legally) possible for the British leaders of the time to stay out of the war.

[jakswan]

Bit by bit we are seeing politicians changing their minds - latest being Jo Johnson. And there is only one direction of travel here.

JeremyP's position is that the Govt should just not do Brexit and any democratic argument thrown against them would fail. Jo Johnson argues for another vote, a different position.

[wigginhall]

Haven't the govt painted themselves into a corner?  They have rejected something like a Norway deal,  Chequers is disliked by most Tory MPs, maybe some kind of withdrawal agreement is possible, which will give them a delay.   Is this what anyone wanted?

[jakswan]

Of late, it seems your entire argument boils down to "we must do Brexit because the politicians won't stop". Have you got anything more positive to say in its favour still left?

No I've not argued recently for Brexit that argument is over for now. Your view is that politicians should not do Brexit, I'm just trying to explain to you why that won't happen, you might get another vote though, odds on Betfair of that happening 3.5, c. 25% implied probability.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132100845

Give you a hot betting tip, bet the opposite way that Davey predicts, his track record is one of epic wrongness.

The worry I would have if I were you is this; if you get another vote I think Corbyn will back the question being binary, i.e. accept deal or leave no deal.

[jeremyp]

JeremyP's position is that the Govt should just not do Brexit and any democratic argument thrown against them would fail. Jo Johnson argues for another vote, a different position.

No, my position is that “the referendum said so, so we must” can no longer be claimed as an argument from democracy.

Not that “because it is the will of the people” was ever an argument that whatever the will of the people is right.

[jeremyp]

No I've not argued recently for Brexit that argument is over for now.

No it isn’t.

you might get another vote though, odds on Betfair of that happening 3.5, c. 25% implied probability.

You understand that betting odds are nothing more than a reflection of what options people are putting money on, don’t you?

The worry I would have if I were you is this; if you get another vote I think Corbyn will back the question being binary, i.e. accept deal or leave no deal.

I agree that is a worry. The correct question would be “accept the deal or stay in the EU?” Or probably a two stage question e.g. “Accept the deal or don’t?” followed by “if we reject the deal should we go for no deal or stay in the EU?” On the same ballot.

[jakswan]

No, my position is that “the referendum said so, so we must” can no longer be claimed as an argument from democracy.

I think that misrepresents the argument May made but take it up with her.

[jakswan]

No it isn’t.

For me it is.

You understand that betting odds are nothing more than a reflection of what options people are putting money on, don’t you?

Of course I think, the probability of another vote at about 25% sounds about right, I'm not putting money on it. If you think the probability is higher than put your money where your mouth is, quite literally!

I agree that is a worry. The correct question would be “accept the deal or stay in the EU?” Or probably a two stage question e.g. “Accept the deal or don’t?” followed by “if we reject the deal should we go for no deal or stay in the EU?” On the same ballot.

The correct question? The question in your opinion.

[SteveH]

put your money where your mouth is, quite literally!

If he took all his money out of his wallet and held it to his mouth, he'd be literally putting his money where his mouth is. Otherwise, it's metaphorical.

[jeremyp]

The correct question? The question in your opinion.

And my opinion is right in this instance. The only reason to leave "stay in the EU off the ballot would be because Brexit politicians fear it would be the most popular answer.

[jakswan]

And my opinion is right in this instance. The only reason to leave "stay in the EU off the ballot would be because Brexit politicians fear it would be the most popular answer.

Do you mean that if there is another vote you are 100% certain there will be a stay option?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Do you mean that if there is another vote you are 100% certain there will be a stay option?

The fear is there won't be.
What is certain is that brexitters will mentally have to divide themselves between what they have done and the consequences of what they have done.

[jeremyp]

Do you mean that if there is another vote you are 100% certain there will be a stay option?

No. I think there is a realistic concern that there won't be. The choice should be between "take the deal" and "do nothing", not "take the deal" and "hit the nuclear button". Unfortunately, the Brexit politicians seem to one mostly in denial about our current situation and unable to contemplate the possibility that we might want to reject their ideas.