Brexit - the next steps

[wigginhall]

Yes, but that's not democracy.  (Sarcasm).

[Rhiannon]

So, What's TM going to say in her upcoming press conference? She's being meeting with the 1922 chap.

[SteveH]

So, What's TM going to say in her upcoming press conference? She's being meeting with the 1922 chap.

"I resign" - well, a chap can dream.

[Rhiannon]

"I resign" - well, a chap can dream.

I want her to come out to to i'm Too Sexy. That would make my life.

[Rhiannon]

Brady doesn't have the 48 letters that trigger a challenge to the leadership apparently.

[Roses]

If TM resigns, or a no confidence vote goes against her, Rees Mogg or Boris could take her place, which would be infinitely worse, imo.

[Harrowby Hall]

If TM resigns, or a no confidence vote goes against her, Rees Mogg or Boris could take her place, which would be infinitely worse, imo.

In order to form a government, Rees Mogg or Johnson will require 325 seats. The Conservatives won 317 at the last election. Theresa May only managed to maintain her government by forming a support alliance with Ulster boneheads. My judgement is that Rees Mogg and Johnson would find it impossible to find any nonConservative allies at all. Any government headed by either of them would fall at the first important division.

There will be a general election if May resigns.

[jeremyp]

They do that if they have a better offer elsewhere

He's probably just following his lunch off the sinking ship.

[jeremyp]

According to the Act of Union, Scotland, Like England, is a nation.

Guess what. Nations are regions.

[jeremyp]

I have dual British/Irish nationality, so a united Ireland is my preference. I know it is highly unlikely to happen, and would probably cause an uprising if it was ever a serious proposition.

I think it is highly likely to happen, but probably not for a few decades.

[jeremyp]

My judgement is that Rees Mogg and Johnson would find it impossible to find any nonConservative allies at all.

What's your reasoning for believing that the DUP would not be willing to do a deal with either of them?

Any government headed by either of them would fall at the first important division.

You're assuming that everybody apart from the Tories would vote against such a division. There's nothing to prevent a future Tory Prime Minister from doing a deal with other parties even on a case by case basis. On any individual issue, they need to find five extra votes (because Sinn Fein with seven seats never turns up and the Speaker (currently Conservative) only votes in the event of a tie).

Personally, I hope that neither Rees Mogg nor Boris Johnson ever manages to form a government. Unfortunately, reality is not based on my hopes. I don't see any reason why the DUP would withdraw from the deal if one of them did become Tory leader though. In fact, I think the new Tory leader would give them pretty much anything they ask for because the alternative would be a general election in which the Tories would probably lose badly.

[Harrowby Hall]

You are also ignoring the fact that the majority (large majority it is believed) of Conservative MPs oppose Brexit. It is quite possible that a post-May parliamentary Conservative Party could isolate Johnson or Rees Mogg and move in a totally different direction.

How about Ken Clarke as interim party leader? (Yes, I know he is too old ...)

[ProfessorDavey]

Guess what. Nations are regions.

Not actually true - under the accepted definition of highest level regions (so called NUTS 1 regions), Wales, Scotland and NI are regions. England on the other hand is comprised of 9 separate regions.

[ProfessorDavey]

There will be a general election if May resigns.

There can only be a snap general election under certain circumstances and there is no guarantee they'd materialise even if May resigned. It would require either a vote of no confidence in the government (not the PM), which would require the DUP to vote against the Tories - I'm not convinced they would. Alternatively it would require a two thirds majority in parliament to vote for a general election. That isn' likely to happen as Tory back-benchers in marginal seats are unlikely to vote for an election where they aren't expected to improve their position. Also for that to be even tenable the Tories would need a new leader, something that might take a while as I'm not convinced a May-style coronation without the top two being put to the membership is on the cards this time.

[jeremyp]

Not actually true - under the accepted definition of highest level regions (so called NUTS 1 regions), Wales, Scotland and NI are regions. England on the other hand is comprised of 9 separate regions.

Well I just meant that a region is simply any defined area of the globe. When I called Scotland a region, I just meant that. It just winds me up that Anchorman thinks it’s an insult.

[Anchorman]

Well I just meant that a region is simply any defined area of the globe. When I called Scotland a region, I just meant that. It just winds me up that Anchorman thinks it’s an insult.

It is.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Not actually true - under the accepted definition of highest level regions (so called NUTS 1 regions), Wales, Scotland and NI are regions. England on the other hand is comprised of 9 separate regions.

Can you not see how insulting that is though? Since it implies that England is a nation made of nine regions and Scotland only makes it to region status, is not a nation. What nation is it a region of?

[ProfessorDavey]

Can you not see how insulting that is though? Since it implies that England is a nation made of nine regions and Scotland only makes it to region status, is not a nation. What nation is it a region of?

The United Kingdom.

And England isn't a nation either under these definitions, indeed it doesn't even have the same identity as Wales, Scotland or NI as it isn't a single region but an amalgam of none regions.

[Rhiannon]

Can you not see how insulting that is though? Since it implies that England is a nation made of nine regions and Scotland only makes it to region status, is not a nation. What nation is it a region of?

Isn't the definition decided by the EU?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Victoria Derbyshire suppressing talk of second referendum and that remain is better than the May deal in favour of the shenanigans over the 48 letters. This makes Derbyshire a sensationalist who's present effortwould not qualify to take the role of a journalists arsehole let alone journalist....imho.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Remain is better than the May deal which is better than no deal.

[ProfessorDavey]

Isn't the definition decided by the EU?

Yes, but internationally recognised.

[Udayana]

Remain is better than the May deal which is better than no deal.

True. However, in trying to get to Remain from where we are risks ending up with No Deal.
The deal being rejected in parliament does not guarantee an election or second referendum. 

Also, if the withdrawal deal was accepted there is still a fair possibility of a long term arrangement where the UK is in a customs union with the EU, with voting rights - which seems to be the Labour policy.

[Rhiannon]

Yes, but internationally recognised.

And that therefore makes it rather puzzling that people are taking offence at the govt also recognising them.

[SteveH]

Can you not see how insulting that is though? Since it implies that England is a nation made of nine regions and Scotland only makes it to region status, is not a nation. What nation is it a region of?

It's to do withpopuation. England's is much greater than Scotlands, Wales's, or Northern Irelands. Talking of insults, though, how about the fact that, when postcodes were introduced in the early 70s, N.Ireland was given only one - BT - for all of it?