Brexit - the next steps

[ad_orientem]

"We" did nothing of the sort. You may have, but almost two-thirds of the electorate didn't.

Techincally that may be true, but only those votes which were cast count.

[Harrowby Hall]

Techincally that may be true, but only those votes which were cast count.

But the legal state of vote is that it was only advisory. May's response to the result was that it could be used to hoover up UKIP votes and make the Conservative Party invincible in an election.

I think (hope) that this cautionary affair about out-of-their-depth politicians putting party interests before national interest will turn round and bite her in the bum.

[Gordon]

I think the ECJ ruling on whether article 50 can be withdrawn unilaterally by the UK is due this week.

If so, and if it says article 50 can be withdrawn by the UK, and if the Court of Session in Edinburgh (that referred to case to the ECJ) rules on this basis, then surely stopping the current politically divisive process would become  an option if Westminster votes the proposed agreement down - and one that avoids 'no deal' or a second referendum.

Nothing then to stop parties presenting a revised plan for Brexit, or a policy of no Brexit, in their manifestos for the next GE.   

[jakswan]

But the legal state of vote is that it was only advisory. May's response to the result was that it could be used to hoover up UKIP votes and make the Conservative Party invincible in an election.

Good grief how many times do I have to say the same thing. The referendum was passed through Parliament with a massive majority, all major parties were concerned with the rise of UKIP.

How could any politician, having voted on giving the people the vote than decide to ignore it have any credibility.

I think (hope) that this cautionary affair about out-of-their-depth politicians putting party interests before national interest will turn round and bite her in the bum.

If Parliament ditch Brexit, you will see the far right in this country, caution enough for you?

The only majority in Parliament is for Norway type deal.

May's Deal - no majority
Referendum - no majority
No Deal - no majority
Election - no majority ( think that would need super-majority)
Norway - majority

[ProfessorDavey]

Good grief how many times do I have to say the same thing. The referendum was passed through Parliament with a massive majority, all major parties were concerned with the rise of UKIP.

How could any politician, having voted on giving the people the vote than decide to ignore it have any credibility.

If Parliament ditch Brexit, you will see the far right in this country, caution enough for you?

The only majority in Parliament is for Norway type deal.

May's Deal - no majority
Referendum - no majority
No Deal - no majority
Election - no majority ( think that would need super-majority)
Norway - majority

Problem is that Norway isn't on offer, and to be so would require the EU to offer it. So it isn't within the power of parliament to provide a Norway option, regardless of whether there might be a hypothetical majority for it and I'm not even sure you are right that there would be a majority for Norway either.

[Udayana]

...
Nothing then to stop parties presenting a revised plan for Brexit, or a policy of no Brexit, in their manifestos for the next GE.

So ... which parties will offer either option in a GE before next March?

 I think it is just wishful thinking; If May's deal is voted down, hard brexit supporters will try to keep delaying decisions being made until we leave with no deal.
   

[Gordon]

So ... which parties will offer either option in a GE before next March?

 I think it is just wishful thinking; If May's deal is voted down, hard brexit supporters will try to keep delaying decisions being made until we leave with no deal.
 

I was thinking that if the ECJ ruling allows article 50 to be withdrawn, and it is withdrawn, then nothing happens in March - the current Brexit disaster gets halted in its tracks - and in readiness for the 2022 GE the various parties can present their approach to Brexit, or no Brexit, in their manifestos thereby allowing the electorate to make a more informed choice than was the case in 2016.

[wigginhall]

Some of the Remain MPs seem to think that enough opposition to May, will force her to withdraw her deal.  Then what?   Some of them (e.g., Umunna), are talking about a 2nd vote, but they don't seem to suggest how that will happen, and its dangers.  I wonder if May will convert them?

[Udayana]

I was thinking that if the ECJ ruling allows article 50 to be withdrawn, and it is withdrawn, then nothing happens in March - the current Brexit disaster gets halted in its tracks - and in readiness for the 2022 GE the various parties can present their approach to Brexit, or no Brexit, in their manifestos thereby allowing the electorate to make a more informed choice than was the case in 2016.

Not going to happen - unlikely ECJ will find provision for unilateral withdrawal of Article 50, and even if possible, doubt we will have a government that would invoke it.
 

[Gordon]

Interesting take on who benefits trade-wise from Brexit: according to the Tango-ed one it ain't us - maybe somebody should tell Liam Fox!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-46351829/donald-trump-brexit-agreement-is-great-deal-for-eu

[Spud]

Theresa May seems to get around every difficult question by saying "I believe" this or that. I'm not sure this is the right way to do politics. What if she is wrong?

[jeremyp]

It would be a bit much to expect to be able to revoke Article 50 given that we voted to leave

I voted to stay and I suspect that, if we had another referendum tomorrow, the majority would be on the same side as me.

If we had a genuine reason for U-turning, then I think they would let us apply to rejoin.

A genuine reason for U-turning would be that Brexit is clearly going to cause enormous damage to the UK.

Few voters were aware that leaving would be a huge problem for the Belfast Agreement

Well they are now. Is "the people are now better informed" not a valid reason for a u-turn?

If the EU helps prevent conflict among its members, like the Belfast Agreement does, then maybe it would be wise to stay in the EU. However, there may be unforeseen advantages in being outside the EU, such as being able to be neutral in a conflict.

Do you realise that one of the primary motivations for creating the EU was to make it impossible for Germany and France to go to war again?

[jeremyp]

Techincally that may be true, but only those votes which were cast count.

Indeed, but language like "the people want..." is just nonsense because the people are divided on Brexit.

[jeremyp]

Good grief how many times do I have to say the same thing. The referendum was passed through Parliament with a massive majority, all major parties were concerned with the rise of UKIP.

How could any politician, having voted on giving the people the vote than decide to ignore it have any credibility.

Quite easily by noting that things have changed since the vote. Opinion polls suggest that Remain would win a referendum held tomorrow. We have more information about the issues and likely outcome of Brexit.

[jeremyp]

Some of the Remain MPs seem to think that enough opposition to May, will force her to withdraw her deal.  Then what?

In her position, I would resign as prime minister.

I think there's a good chance that the government will collapse and we'll need to have a general election.

[Spud]

I voted to stay and I suspect that, if we had another referendum tomorrow, the majority would be on the same side as me.
A genuine reason for U-turning would be that Brexit is clearly going to cause enormous damage to the UK.

Well they are now. Is "the people are now better informed" not a valid reason for a u-turn?
Do you realise that one of the primary motivations for creating the EU was to make it impossible for Germany and France to go to war again?

I'm sure there are lots of people who have swung over to Renain- personally I don't think I could vote Leave in a second referendum. However, it looks like there are still many Leavers out there and I'm not so sure they are the minority yet. But I agree there should be a People's vote, with Renain as an option. Yes I knew that about France and Germany, but I hadn't realized it could apply to Ireland and the UK as well.

[jeremyp]

I'm sure there are lots of people who have swung over to Renain- personally I don't think I could vote Leave in a second referendum. However, it looks like there are still many Leavers out there and I'm not so sure they are the minority yet.

Recent opinion polls would suggest that they are.

On PM on R4 last night, an MP for one of the Bristol constituencies was interviewed. He had carried out a survey of his constituents and found that they were overwhelmingly in support of Remain now (over 70%) but the interesting point is that more people (80%) were in favour of a new referendum than were in favour of Remain.

[jakswan]

Quite easily by noting that things have changed since the vote. Opinion polls suggest that Remain would win a referendum held tomorrow. We have more information about the issues and likely outcome of Brexit.

It is your opinion that it would be easy, no politicians agree with you.

[jeremyp]

It is your opinion that it would be easy, no politicians agree with you.

|All the MPs wanting a second referendum are in this camp.

[jakswan]

In her position, I would resign as prime minister.

I think there's a good chance that the government will collapse and we'll need to have a general election.

You sound hopeful, there is every chance we could get Corbyn, will make Brexit insignificant as he will bankrupt the country.

[jeremyp]

You sound hopeful,

That's just my lack of talent at writing. I'm pretty pessimistic because, if May gets her deal through, we will be headed for some sort of non hard Brexit, but still a Brexit and still pretty damaging IMO. If she doesn't get her deal, the government might collapse and then we'll get our second referendum, which I think Remain will win, but we could also crash out with a No Deal Brexit which would be an utter disaster IMO.

there is every chance we could get Corbyn, will make Brexit insignificant

It's going to be Corbyn after the next general election anyway.

as he will bankrupt the country.

Do you really think that is is it some kind of Project Fear?

Sorry, couldn't resist the joke, but Corbyn is IMO thoroughly incompetent and will get nothing done. He couldn't bankrupt a Trump casino.

[Spud]

Someone needs to be King Solomon and say "cut all fish caught in the Channel in half, and give half of each fish to the British and the other half to the French".

In a way, this method used by Solomon can now be repeated in the UK by giving "the people" the option of leaving without a deal. I would think few of those who voted Leave in 2016 would want to do this, now they know more about what the consequences would be.

That still leaves the question of whether Remain should still be an option.

[Spud]

Solomon was wise enough to know how to call the false mother's bluff. Hopefully May will be wise enough to do something like this and do the right thing. But she seems intent on acting on the 2016 result without considering that people might want a chance to change their minds.

[Roses]

Solomon was wise enough to know how to call the false mother's bluff. Hopefully May will be wise enough to do something like this and do the right thing. But she seems intent on acting on the 2016 result without considering that people might want a chance to change their minds.

I don't equate that guy Solomon with wisdom. Blimey a bloke with apparently 700 wives and 300 concubines, can't have much in the way of thought processes in the brain, as most them would be concentrated below his belt.

[Aruntraveller]

This:

Dear Mrs May

I am in France having a break having come here on the train all the way from Settle. I just read your letter to me and the rest of Britain wanting us all to unite behind the damp squib you call a deal. Unite? I laughed so much the mouthful of frogs legs I was eating ended up dancing all over the bald head of the bloke on the opposite table.

Your party’s little civil war has divided this country irreparably. The last time this happened Cromwell discontinued the custom of kings wearing their heads on their shoulders.

I had a mother who was of Irish descent, an English father who lies in a Dutch graveyard in the village where his Lancaster bomber fell in flames. I had a Polish stepfather who drove a tank for us in WW2 and I have two half Polish sisters and a half Polish brother who is married to a girl from Donegal.

My two uncles of Irish descent fought for Britain in N Africa and in Burma.

So far you have called us Citizens Of Nowhere and Queue Jumpers. You have now taken away our children and grandchildren’s freedom to travel, settle, live and work in mainland Europe.

You have made this country a vicious and much diminished place. You as Home Sec sent a van round telling foreigners to go home. You said “ illegal” but that was bollocks as the legally here people of the Windrush generation soon discovered.

Your party has sold off our railways, water, electricity, gas, telecoms, Royal Mail etc until all we have left is the NHS and that is lined up for the US to have as soon as Hannon and Hunt can arrange it

You have lied to the people of this country. You voted Remain yet changed your tune when the chance to grab the job of PM came. You should have sacked those lying bastards Gove and Bojo but daren’t because you haven’t the actual power.

You have no answer to the British border on the island of Ireland nor do you know how the Gib border with Spain will work once we are out

Mrs May you have helped to divide this country to such an extent that families and friends are now no longer talking to each other, you have managed to negotiate a deal far worse than the one we had and all to keep together a party of millionaires, Eton Bullingdon boys, spivs and WI harridans. Your party conserves nothing. It has sold everything off in the name of the free market.

You could have kept our industries going with investment and development – Germany managed it. But no – The Free Market won so Sunderland, Barnsley, Hamilton etc could all go to the devil

So Mrs May my answer to your plea for unity is firstly that it is ridiculous.

48% of us will never forgive you for Brexit and secondly, of the 52% that voted for it many will not forgive you for not giving them what your lying comrades like Rees Mogg and Fox promised them.

There are no unicorns, there is no £350 million extra for the NHS. The economy will tank and there will be less taxes to help out the poor. We have 350,000 homeless (not rough sleepers – homeless) in one of the richest countries on Earth and you are about to increase that number with your damn fool Brexit.

The bald man has wiped the frogs legs of his head, I’ve bought him a glass of wine to say sorry; I’m typing this with one finger on my phone in France and I’m tired now and want to stop before my finger gets too tired to join the other one in a sailors salute to you and your squalid Brexit, your shabby xenophobia and Little Englander mentality.

Two fingers to you and your unity from this proud citizen of nowhere. I and roughly half the country will never forgive you or your party.

Mr Mike Harding