Brexit - the next steps

[jeremyp]

I think you are confusing opinion poll and referendum.

No I am not. Opinion polls tell us that the result of a third referendum would probably be different to the second referendum.

It will be seen as a betrayal by many.

But it looks like this “many” is no longer a majority.

[Gordon]

I think best option would be to rescind Article 50 (assuming the ECJ confirm this option) and pull the plug on the current mess, since looking at the reports of the debate in Westminster today on the BBC website (and it is still going on) it seems self-evident that there is no political consensus as regards either May's deal or what the best alternative is.

Then if any party wants to return to Brexit they can do so at the next GE as part of their manifesto, though I doubt that if this Brexit implodes any politician with at least one functioning synapse would seriously want to repeat the experience. Then maybe Brexit can return to its rightful role: the preoccupation of the lunatic fringe of the Tory party.   

[jeremyp]

I think best option would be to rescind Article 50 (assuming the ECJ confirm this option) and pull the plug on the current mess, since looking at the reports of the debate in Westminster today on the BBC website (and it is still going on) it seems self-evident that there is no political consensus as regards either May's deal or what the best alternative is.

Then if any party wants to return to Brexit they can do so at the next GE as part of their manifesto, though I doubt that if this Brexit implodes any politician with at least one functioning synapse would seriously want to repeat the experience. Then maybe Brexit can return to its rightful role: the preoccupation of the lunatic fringe of the Tory party.

I’m beginning to wonder if that hasn’t always been May’s game plan.

Nobody can possibly look at the last couple of years and think things have been going well, whether Brexiteers or not. We never had a game plan of what to do following Brexit and it annoys me that the Remain campaign failed to make this clear before the last referendum.

[Rhiannon]

Nobody can possibly look at the last couple of years and think things have been going well, whether Brexiteers or not. We never had a game plan of what to do following Brexit and it annoys me that the Remain campaign failed to make this clear before the last referendum.

I dont think that would have made a greta deal of difference given how dazzled people were by the squillions of quids for the NHS. I think a better bet would have been to have explained the benefits that make our voices run smoother - fresh produce in the shops, medicines, integrated health care - and some of the other benefits like the EU being the reason our government bothered to clean up our beaches, or how the EU give money to regenerate our deprived areas. And security of course.

[jakswan]

I said I didn't want another referendum.

You really should read what's written before you make yourself look silly.

Right so you are not an extremist as I defined it because I defined the two extremes in terms of Brexit as:-

Leave with No Deal
Stay by means of Referendum

Sigh, silly sausage.

[jakswan]

What 'hard right' do you mean?

Hard right, racists, here is a quote by the BBC on the German AFD.

"Alexander Gauland has talked of fighting an "invasion of foreigners" and their campaign openly focused on Islam and migration. AfD sees Islam as alien to German society."

These people are sitting with 94 seats in the German Parliament!

UKIP only ever got one and Carswell is not hard right.

[jakswan]

Actually, it’s vote versions 2 and 3 respectively. Version 1 happened in 1975 and Remain won then. It’s funny how Brexiteers arguing another referendum would be a mockery of democracy seem to forget that the 2016 referendum was already another referendum.

Its not that it is a mockery of democracy, I'm actually quite calm on another vote per se. It is what would follow.

Only if the Brexiteers don’t have the good grace to recognize they are no longer in the majority. If Brexit wins again, I think most Remainers would say “it’s a fair cop”.

Yes I would say 'it's a fair cop' I can't speak for anyone but myself and suspect a lot of voters will feel it was a stitch up.

Norway is the best option except staying in. It has a flaw though: it means we are still bound to EU rules but without any say in how they are made. Even a Brexiteers should prefer full membership to that, so why not stay in?

End to political union, no 1 reason for voting leave for me.

[jakswan]

No I am not. Opinion polls tell us that the result of a third referendum would probably be different to the second referendum.

Do they, you sure about that, wrong in 2015, 2016, 2017 of the top of my head.

But it looks like this “many” is no longer a majority.

So what, if many start to vote for the far right, that is a price worth paying is it?

For a democracy to survive it has to be about compromise and to have a healthy majority they have to feel its fair.

Currently, the two extremes don't want to compromise and their failure to do so is dangerous.

[jakswan]

I’m beginning to wonder if that hasn’t always been May’s game plan.

There is more chance of Corbyn joining UKIP than May revoking article 50.

Nobody can possibly look at the last couple of years and think things have been going well, whether Brexiteers or not. We never had a game plan of what to do following Brexit and it annoys me that the Remain campaign failed to make this clear before the last referendum.

It was a negative campaign, fairness to Alex Salmond I seem recall he did warn Cameron not to fight a negative campaign.

[Aruntraveller]

So what, if many start to vote for the far right, that is a price worth paying is it?

You are saying something quite disparaging about leave voters. Or maybe perceptive. Not sure which.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Time to call out hard brexitters like Stewart Lee has called them out.

How are we to look upon people that are calling for disruption of essential supplies?

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Southern brexitters will fight to the last northern brexitters job for their Bwexit.

[ProfessorDavey]

EFTA need not take long,

EFTA isn't on the table and cannot be on the table as a withdrawal agreement, as the withdrawal agree is with the EU, about leaving the EU. We could apply to join EFTA on 30th March (the process would take time and no guarantee they'd agree) but we'd still need a withdrawal agreement with the EU. Some aspects of that withdrawal agreement, e.g. the backstop, might not be consistent with being a member of EFTA.

Also joining EFTA would rank very high on the 'betrayal' scale - both with brexiteers many of whom would consider that this wasn't what they voted for, but also remainers, many of whom would (quite rightly) conclude that were this outcome to have been clear in 2016 then remain would have won.

well established and its look like EFTA countries would be welcoming.

Not convinced on that - Britain joining would completely unbalance EFTA - currently it involves four small countries that gain from being members, but with none large enough to dominate. Were the UK to join it would be four size the size of the other countries combined, so would be massively dominating. Not sure they'd want that at all.

[Harrowby Hall]

I have just listened to Theresa May being interviewed by John Humphries on the Today programme.

What I heard was an unhappy woman who knows that she has been forced into a corner from which she cannot escape but who refuses to accept any responsibility for her own actions.  She can see only one way out from her situation and refuses to accept that there may be alternatives. She sounded rather desperate.

[Udayana]

HH,
Yes, but where did she go wrong do you think? 

[jakswan]

You are saying something quite disparaging about leave voters. Or maybe perceptive. Not sure which.

I'm saying something quite disparaging about people.

I could be wrong but I get the impression that you sit on your left leaning high horse with an air of moral superiority and sneer at those evil tories, ignorant it seems that you are but one vote. If all the other votes start going into another dangerous direction its nothing to do with you right?

[jakswan]

EFTA isn't on the table and cannot be on the table as a withdrawal agreement, as the withdrawal agree is with the EU, about leaving the EU. We could apply to join EFTA on 30th March (the process would take time and no guarantee they'd agree) but we'd still need a withdrawal agreement with the EU. Some aspects of that withdrawal agreement, e.g. the backstop, might not be consistent with being a member of EFTA.

Yes it should be in the political statement.

Also joining EFTA would rank very high on the 'betrayal' scale - both with brexiteers many of whom would consider that this wasn't what they voted for, but also remainers, many of whom would (quite rightly) conclude that were this outcome to have been clear in 2016 then remain would have won.

Or it could address the fact that we have to reach a compromise.

Not convinced on that - Britain joining would completely unbalance EFTA - currently it involves four small countries that gain from being members, but with none large enough to dominate. Were the UK to join it would be four size the size of the other countries combined, so would be massively dominating. Not sure they'd want that at all.

Suggest to listen to what they say, Sky have gone to Iceland and Norway and found senior politicians being very warm to the idea.

[ProfessorDavey]

Suggest to listen to what they say, Sky have gone to Iceland and Norway and found senior politicians being very warm to the idea.

And Switzerland? Don't forget that the Swiss tend to put matters like this to a referendum - so whether or not we'd be allowed to join EFTA would be down to the Swiss people. Just imagine how that would go down with the 'take back control' brexit mob.

[ProfessorDavey]

Yes it should be in the political statement.

The political statement is an aspirational statement about our relationship with the EU - EFTA members aren't in the EU and therefore would be totally inappropriate for the UK and EU to agree a statement relating to countries that are neither the UK or the EU.

[SteveH]

Recently discovered that the UK was one of the founder-members of EFTA. We automatically left when we joined the EEC (as it was then), since apparently membership of both organisations is impossible. Other members have since also joined the EEC/EU, and left EFTA at the same time, so it's shrunk.

[ProfessorDavey]

Recently discovered that the UK was one of the founder-members of EFTA. We automatically left when we joined the EEC (as it was then), since apparently membership of both organisations is impossible. Other members have since also joined the EEC/EU, and left EFTA at the same time, so it's shrunk.

That's right and I am not convinced that the current 4 members would be happy for the UK to join, indeed it seems only Iceland it positive. Certainly I think that the EFTA 4 would only consider UK membership if they were convinced it was effectively permanent and not some kind of stop gap to an alternative arrangement - the norway first, then canada notion.

Good article here

http://www.ejinsight.com/20180411-can-britain-rejoin-efta-after-brexit/

[Udayana]

That's right and I am not convinced that the current 4 members would be happy for the UK to join, indeed it seems only Iceland it positive. Certainly I think that the EFTA 4 would only consider UK membership if they were convinced it was effectively permanent and not some kind of stop gap to an alternative arrangement - the norway first, then canada notion.

Good article here

http://www.ejinsight.com/20180411-can-britain-rejoin-efta-after-brexit/

Assuming that they do support UK membership and the government decide on that path, shouldn't we have a referendum on whether we join it before doing so?

Or, for that matter, on any other arrangement we set up that affects UK sovereignty, eg. on free movement or dispute resolution?

[Nearly Sane]

Recently discovered that the UK was one of the founder-members of EFTA. We automatically left when we joined the EEC (as it was then), since apparently membership of both organisations is impossible. Other members have since also joined the EEC/EU, and left EFTA at the same time, so it's shrunk.

The only reason that I remembered we were once members, is I had the stamps issued, see link

http://www.collectgbstamps.co.uk/explore/years/?year=1967

[jakswan]

The political statement is an aspirational statement about our relationship with the EU - EFTA members aren't in the EU and therefore would be totally inappropriate for the UK and EU to agree a statement relating to countries that are neither the UK or the EU.

So May's deal really is the only deal we could join EFTA post leaving.

[ProfessorDavey]

So May's deal really is the only deal we could join EFTA post leaving.

Not exactly sure what you are saying here.

May's deal is the only deal on the table agreed by both the UK and the EU for the withdrawal of the UK from the EU and the arrangements for the immediate period post-29th March (so called transitional period) during which a final deal between the EU ad the UK is expected to be negotiated and agreed (based on the aspirational political statement).

Joining EFTA cannot be the withdrawal arrangement for obvious reasons that I have stated previously. The UK cold propose that is becomes a member of EFTA for the final arrangement, but cannot do this unilaterally - firstly (and obviously the EFTA 4 would need to agree this) but secondly the EU would need to be convinced that the arrangement satisfied the internationally legally binding agreement  of the withdrawal agreement - specifically on Northern Ireland.

And of course finally EFTA membership would need to be politically acceptable to the government, parliament and in the country at large. As I've pointed out previously I'd imagine that a proposed EFTA permanent solution would rank very highest on the 'betrayal' scale - bringing together brexiteers who would feel betrayed that this was 'Brexit in name only' (requiring freedom of movement, EJC involvement, payments to the EU etc etc), plus also remainers who would feel that remain would have won the referendum, if the choice was EU membership or EU membership-lite (i.e. EFTA).

Plus I'm not convinced it would be considered politically or democratically acceptable to join EFTA without a specific referendum on membership.

So, yes EFTA membership is a possibility, but it is fraught with complexities, so it isn't a simple solution.