Brexit - the next steps

[ProfessorDavey]

The deal isn't ratified.

It has been by the EU - they did so on the 25th Nov.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46334649

[jakswan]

Yes

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/05/latest-yougov-tracker-finds-the-brexit-wrong-lead-over-right-in-double-figures-at-record-level/

BBC.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45520517

at the end
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/600A/production/_103468542_want_to_leave_2-nc.png

You were the one claiming people would be voting far right. I want to know how they would vote far right given that a far right option would not be on any ballot paper for the referendum. I'm not sure what a far right option is anyway.

It would the rise of the far right, clearly I need to explain what this means. A large part of the electorate will feel betrayed as a result of another vote if won by remain, when the electorate becomes disenfranchised and angry the political extremes thrive, it needn't be extreme right it could be the extreme left, although we have a touch of that now. 

A sane option is what we need now, one that doesn't damage our economy or destroy our relationships with the other EU nations and gives us some influence over the direction Europe moves in the future. The only option that firs those criteria is Remain.

Norway then, as it does all those things and added bonus doesn't destroy our democracy.

[ProfessorDavey]

In initial negotiations it was either Canada or Norway, Norway was taken off the table because of May's red lines.

Tusk said:-
"The EU cannot grant the rights of Norway, with the obligations of Canada"

https://euobserver.com/uk-referendum/141238

No it wasn't - Tusk's comment was merely making it clear that the UK couldn't cherry pick (as your link makes very clear) - the negotiations were never Norway vs Canada, and could never be as the specific circumstances of the UK means that neither option would work - most notably due to NI.

[jakswan]

It has been by the EU - they did so on the 25th Nov.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46334649

That is not ratification.

https://www.ft.com/content/64e7f218-4ad4-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b

Quote:-
EU ratification
Before any Brexit deal can take effect, it must also be approved by the European Parliament in a plenary vote. Any legally questionable elements of the withdrawal treaty could also be referred to the ECJ by MEPs. 

[jakswan]

No it wasn't - Tusk's comment was merely making it clear that the UK couldn't cherry pick (as your link makes very clear) - the negotiations were never Norway vs Canada, and could never be as the specific circumstances of the UK means that neither option would work - most notably due to NI.

Tusk said:-
"The EU cannot grant the rights of Norway, with the obligations of Canada"

You can infer that this would follow:-
"The EU can grant the rights of Norway, with the obligations of Norway"

[ProfessorDavey]

BBC.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45520517

at the end
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/600A/production/_103468542_want_to_leave_2-nc.png

But that's from Sept - and even so the red line (remain) has been consistently above the blue line (leave) since mid 2017. IN the earlier period immediately post referendum leave generally led - given that the original result was a nearly 4% majority in favour of leave that represents a shift in opinion.

So good to know that the 'evidence' you provide in favour of your view actually confirms my and Jeremy's point about a shift in opinion toward remain.

[jeremyp]

BBC.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45520517

at the end
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/600A/production/_103468542_want_to_leave_2-nc.png

You should have checked the date on that article.

It would the rise of the far right, clearly I need to explain what this means.

The far right has already risen.

A large part of the electorate will feel betrayed as a result of another vote if won by remain,

A large part of the electorate feels betrayed now. It's just a part of the electorate that you disagree with.

when the electorate becomes disenfranchised and angry the political extremes thrive

How could having a vote actually disenfranchise the electorate.

Norway then, as it does all those things and added bonus doesn't destroy our democracy.

Norway betrays many (most?) Brexiteers who want to restrict movement of workers or want to stop EU influence over our laws and it betrays the Remainers because we want influence over EU laws.

[ProfessorDavey]

Tusk said:-
"The EU cannot grant the rights of Norway, with the obligations of Canada"

You can infer that this would follow:-
"The EU can grant the rights of Norway, with the obligations of Norway"

Phenomenal quote mining - the rest of the statement was Tusk describing May's approach as 'pick and mix'. His point was about cherry picking, not that the negotiations were about Norway vs Canada. They never were, nor even could be.

[Anchorman]

How crass and idiotic can you get?
Well, I suppose being a Tory qualifies, but threatening a nation which suffered the heart aching trauma of the potato famine is nothing short of criminal insanity.

https://www.thenational.ae/world/europe/britain-should-use-threat-of-food-shortages-against-ireland-says-leading-brexiteer-1.800238?fbclid=IwAR3e2gyI33gZwpc0wSO2BVMsFKnpKbulCmNFgDctYzT_srQky60vCyHEc10   

[wigginhall]

Mind-boggling.

[jeremyp]

threatening a nation which suffered the heart aching trauma of the potato famine

Which, if you read the article, you'll find she didn't do.

What she did do was read a report that says Ireland would suffer food shortages in the event of a UK No Deal and say we should use that fact as leverage to get a deal with the EU.

[ProfessorDavey]

Norway betrays many (most?) Brexiteers who want to restrict movement of workers or want to stop EU influence over our laws and it betrays the Remainers because we want influence over EU laws.

Indeed - Norway is in Schengen (as are all EFTA members) - Norway/EFTA would involve loosening migration control rather than tightening it. Do you really think that would be acceptable to most brexiteers.

[Anchorman]

To even suggest linking food shortage to Ireland, which took decades to recover from the virtual genocide of the food famine - yes, genocisde, which Westminster aided by doing nothing to alleviate, will simply inflame the latant anger in many hearts, both north and south of the border. Ithis was idiocy.

[jakswan]

You should have checked the date on that article.

Sept 18.
Your original point:-
The last few polls have shown Remain with a clear majority that exceeds the error bars of most of them.

The far right has already risen.

Don't talk utter nonsense, Germany has just under 100 far right MP's we have none.

A large part of the electorate feels betrayed now. It's just a part of the electorate that you disagree with.

Really how does it feel betrayed?

How could having a vote actually disenfranchise the electorate.

I've explained this so many times, you can disagree if you like but your are either not reading what I've written or being obtuse.

Norway betrays many (most?) Brexiteers who want to restrict movement of workers or want to stop EU influence over our laws and it betrays the Remainers because we want influence over EU laws.

It doesn't betray Remainers, YOU LOST!

Daniel Hannan I seem to recall favouring Norway, it seems to carry favour with both centre-right and centre-left.

[jakswan]

Indeed - Norway is in Schengen (as are all EFTA members) - Norway/EFTA would involve loosening migration control rather than tightening it. Do you really think that would be acceptable to most brexiteers.

In EFTA Freedom of movement of Labour is allowed, the right to citizenship is not.

[jakswan]

https://www.iaindale.com/articles/the-perils-of-a-second-referendum

Well said Iain Dale!

[ProfessorDavey]

In EFTA Freedom of movement of Labour is allowed, the right to citizenship is not.

The right of citizenship isn't allowed under EU law either - a Polish person cannot simply claim UK citizenship just because they are a citizen of another EU country.

[ProfessorDavey]

In EFTA Freedom of movement of Labour is allowed, the right to citizenship is not.

This is Norway/EFTA in terms of freedom of movement:

http://www.efta.int/eea/policy-areas/persons/persons
http://www.efta.int/eea/policy-areas/persons

Effectively identical to being in the EU and more relaxed than the UK as Norway and all other EFTA countries are in Schengen.

[ProfessorDavey]

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1071078003780870146?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpoliticalbetting.vanillacommunity.com%2Fdiscussion%2F7076%2Fpoliticalbetting-com-blog-archive-eu-and-whose-army

Hmm - Norway really want the UK to join EFTA - not.

[jeremyp]

To even suggest linking food shortage to Ireland, which took decades to recover from the virtual genocide of the food famine - yes, genocisde, which Westminster aided by doing nothing to alleviate, will simply inflame the latant anger in many hearts, both north and south of the border. Ithis was idiocy.

Who did the linking? It wasn't Priti Patel. She said that the fact that an EU member state would suffer food shortages in the event of a No Deal Brexit should be used as leverage on the EU. She did not link it to the Potato Famine nor did she suggest the UK would deliberately starve Ireland.

[ProfessorDavey]

It doesn't betray Remainers, YOU LOST!

Regardless of who won the referendum the government needs to act in the interest of all the people in the UK, (the 60million), not just the 52% (of those that voted), which represents just 29% of the population of the UK.

[jeremyp]

Sept 18.

So three months old compared to my link which was only two days old.

Don't talk utter nonsense, Germany has just under 100 far right MP's we have none.

Don't we? Are you sure about that?

Really how does it feel betrayed?

We feel betrayed because Brexiteers are removing our EU citizen rights without our consent, because Brexit has caused and will continue to cause enormous damage, because we thought we lived in a cosmopolitan welcoming society and it has been revealed to be insular and nasty.

I've explained this so many times, you can disagree if you like but your are either not reading what I've written or being obtuse.

You are advocating that having another vote is disenfranchising. The word means "not being allowed to have a vote". You should be able to see why I am having some trouble with your argument.

It doesn't betray Remainers, YOU LOST!

So you are, at least, agreeing it betrays most Brexiteers.

[ProfessorDavey]

It doesn't betray Remainers, YOU LOST!

Do you really think that leave would have won had it been clear that the 'landing point' would be EFTA - not a hope.

[jakswan]

Phenomenal quote mining - the rest of the statement was Tusk describing May's approach as 'pick and mix'. His point was about cherry picking, not that the negotiations were about Norway vs Canada. They never were, nor even could be.

First of all that is demonstrably not quote mining.

Quoting out of context (sometimes referred to as contextomy or quote mining) is an informal fallacy and a type of false attribution in which a passage is removed from its surrounding matter in such a way as to distort its intended meaning.

I quoted Tusk in context and inferred another meaning making very clear that is what I was doing.

You think that deduction is faulty is all very well but making me out to be dishonest doesn't show you in a good light.

I have heard countless politicians say the EU's opening position was 'Norway type deal or Canada type deal'.

No quote you have offered refutes.

https://openeurope.org.uk/daily-shakeup/uk-eu-deal-not-combination-norway-canada-trade-deal/
EU chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, warned that Britain’s future relationship with the EU will not “combine the benefits of the Norway model (which has full access to the EU single market but accepts free movement of people) with the weak constraints of the Canada model.”

What both quotes I have provided state is that you can't have Norway type deal with a bit of Canada, pick and mix. They were not saying you can't have Norway.

[jakswan]

Regardless of who won the referendum the government needs to act in the interest of all the people in the UK, (the 60million), not just the 52% (of those that voted), which represents just 29% of the population of the UK.

Yes and preserving democracy is of very big interest to all of the people. Norway means a few hard line Brexiteers might be miffed, hard right doesn't emerge, economy ticks along, end to policial union.