Brexit - the next steps

[jakswan]

Really, Vlad?

As someone (can't remember who) said on The World at One a few minutes ago, May is now receiving the inevitable reward for sucking up to the ERG for the last couple of years - they are kicking her in the May equivalent of the nuts. Will she learn anything from this?

The consensus appears to be that she will survive this no confidence vote - though possibly not choose to remain as party leader for the next election.

I do have admiration for her ability to stick at it, what really has done her in was that election. I think she planned to be able to have a huge majority so she could have gone for a fairly soft Brexit, but the result she got meant the DUP and ERG have too much weight.

Has to be said that a centrist in charge of Labour would have won that election by a mile and Mandelson is right:-

“The only people that the Tory party and the Government don’t fear is the opposition front bench, because they are not laying a glove on them.”

[ProfessorDavey]

Really, Vlad?

As someone (can't remember who) said on The World at One a few minutes ago, May is now receiving the inevitable reward for sucking up to the ERG for the last couple of years - they are kicking her in the May equivalent of the nuts. Will she learn anything from this?

The consensus appears to be that she will survive this no confidence vote - though possibly not choose to remain as party leader for the next election.

And if that happens she won't be able to face another VONC on her leadership for a year, in other words beyond the point at which brexit (or no brexit) will be settled. High stakes stuff - as if the ERG are unable to vote her out they will have lost their trump card against her approach. She can reach out across the divide as she sees fit with no chance that she can be deposed.

[Roses]

If May survives the no confidence vote, as seems likely, her detractors will be made to look really stupid for not first determining if it would go against her. 

[Nearly Sane]

If May survives the no confidence vote, as seems likely, her detractors will be made to look really stupid for not first determining if it would go against her.

Though they have got her to say she won't lead the party into the next election.

[Aruntraveller]

Even if, as looks likely, she survives; it doesn't change the maths in the commons for the deal. She'll still lose that vote.

It's all a bit of a mess.

Understatement is so 2018.

[Roses]

Though they have got her to say she won't lead the party into the next election.

I suspect she will have had more than enough of it by then anyway. The stress must be awful, and not good for her health especially as she is a diabetic.

[Nearly Sane]

I suspect she will have had more than enough of it by then anyway. The stress must be awful, and not good for her health especially as she is a diabetic.

Nowhere near the stress she caused by the Windrush scandal.

[Roses]

Nowhere near the stress she caused by the Windrush scandal.

That has nothing to do with Brexit.

[Nearly Sane]

That has nothing to do with Brexit.

I think creating a hostile environment about immigration has a lot to do with Brexit and a lot to do with May.

[Nearly Sane]

The solution


https://scarfolk.blogspot.com/2017/07/vegetable-politicians.html?m=1

[Roses]

I think creating a hostile environment about immigration has a lot to do with Brexit and a lot to do with May.

I doubt very much that Brexit is connected to Windrush, especially as it has only very recently come to light the scandal surrounding it that bad business.

[Nearly Sane]

I doubt very much that Brexit is connected to Windrush, especially as it has only very recently come to light the scandal surrounding it that bad business.

If you play on the idea that immigration is bad to the extent May did as Home Secretary which created the Windrush scandal while she was there, then stoking xenophobia in that way contributed to Brexit.

[Anchorman]

Nowhere near the stress she caused by the Windrush scandal.

Or, for that matter, the families of th ose who havecommittedsuicide thanks to her goverment's inhuman policies.

[jeremyp]

And if that happens she won't be able to face another VONC on her leadership for a year, in other words beyond the point at which brexit (or no brexit) will be settled. High stakes stuff - as if the ERG are unable to vote her out they will have lost their trump card against her approach. She can reach out across the divide as she sees fit with no chance that she can be deposed.

It’s an interesting point. If she wins, she is unassailable by the only people who could boot her out. If she then fails to get her deal through Parliament, she can unilaterally suspend Brexit with no consequences to herself for another year. She would spin it to Parliament as “either no deal or suspend Brexit”. I think Parliament would support her.

I’m kind of wondering if she planned it this way.

[jeremyp]

Though they have got her to say she won't lead the party into the next election.

The Tories aren’t winning that, anyway.

[Roses]

The Tories aren’t winning that, anyway.

They might if that limp lettuce, Corbyn, is still leader of the Labour Party. 

[Aruntraveller]

They might if that limp lettuce, Corbyn, is still leader of the Labour Party.

Keep taking the tabloids.

[Roses]

Keep taking the tabloids.

HA!HA! SHOCK, HORROR, a tabloid has never been permitted in our home.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Callow youth and brexit minster Stephen Barclay has admitted that Theresa May is going to run down the clock on brexit.

Someone must now call for a vote of no confidence in T May in parliament.

[Aruntraveller]

HA!HA! SHOCK, HORROR, a tabloid has never been permitted in our home.

I was aware of your claims not to read tabloids. It doesnt change the ffact that you read like a tabloid headline writer. All shock and denunciation with very little of substance.

[wigginhall]

Callow youth and brexit minster Stephen Barclay has admitted that Theresa May is going to run down the clock on brexit.

Someone must now call for a vote of no confidence in T May in parliament.

I think Labour are wary, as an election might be very unpopular.  Then again, Corbyn is paid to oppose.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

For Brexitters
What does out in just wanting out look like?
What does playing hard ball look like?
Aren't both estate behaviour where you get an idea, it festers and then you just lose it to get a bit of relief or gratification?

[Nearly Sane]

Lots of good stuff in this

https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12/13/full-speech-sir-ivan-rogers-on-brexit/

[Aruntraveller]

Thanks for posting this NS.  A clearly thought out and excellent exposition of the problems we face.

Particularly liked this:

If moving beyond WTO terms with major markets represents a major step FORWARD in liberalising trade, then deliberately moving back to WTO terms from an existing deep preferential agreement – which is what the Single Market is – represents a major step BACKWARD to less free trade. You really can’t have it both ways.

Well, when I say “you cannot” argue this, clearly many can and do. But it is well beyond incoherent.

[jeremyp]

They might if that limp lettuce, Corbyn, is still leader of the Labour Party.

The Conservative Party lost its absolute majority in spite of leading Labour in the polls before the election. Now they trail Labour by several points. And they'll  be going into the next election with a new leader, possibly Jacob Rees Mogg or Boris Johnson or maybe with no leader at all. The prospects for the Tories at the next election are desperate.