Brexit - the next steps

[Roses]

Have you quite "finnish...ed?

 

[SteveH]

Business people seem to think it a very big mistake.

Again, not all of them. Messrs Martin and Dyson don't think so, and neither does Digby Jones of the CBI. I disagree with them, and think any kind of Brexit will be bad, but let's not exaggerate.

[ProfessorDavey]

No deal.

Yet you claim to prefer Norway+/EFTA, which is much, much closer to remain than it is to no deal. Why on earth would you prefer something far, far away from your preferred option than something very close to it?

[Aruntraveller]

stop crying wolf you will come to regret it.

Oooh....scaryjak.

File under project fear.

[ad_orientem]

Have you quite "finnish...ed?

Ho ho ho!

[jakswan]

But it isn't in her power as eventually she will have to bring the issue to parliament in a meaningful vote, which will allow parliament to take control.

Does she, if she doesn't think she can win the vote, why bring it before Parliament.

Don't forget that parliament has already amended the bill to mean that parliament decides what happens next if her deal is voted down. Parliament recognises that calling for an extension, revocation of article 50 (permanently or temporarily while other issues are sorted) and/or a referendum on the final deal or voting to prevent no deal are all options and once May's deal is voted down it is for parliament to choose the way forward. That's why May is delaying as she know that once her deal is defeated the power transfers from her and the government to parliament.

If it gets voted down, if she doesn't present it then no deal.

Do you really think that if May's deal is voted down on the 14th Jan and parliament will allow the clock to run down to a no deal. No a chance.

The only way to stop that happening is vote of no confidence, could happen but again 'no chance' is over stating it, your track record on predicting things isn't great.

[jakswan]

Yet you claim to prefer Norway+/EFTA, which is much, much closer to remain than it is to no deal. Why on earth would you prefer something far, far away from your preferred option than something very close to it?

The three options in order of preference.

1. May's deal - with Norway type deal as long term arrangement
2. No Deal - not ideal but much better than
3. Referendum - we would end at best in the same place we are now and at worst with the hard right on the march. With the hard left already in control of the Labour party we will likely end up with a bunch of ideologues in charge of country.

[jakswan]

Oooh....scaryjak.

File under project fear.

Did you not watch the video of Bill Maher?

File under Project Reality.

[ProfessorDavey]

Does she, if she doesn't think she can win the vote, why bring it before Parliament.

Because she has to.

If it gets voted down, if she doesn't present it then no deal.

Nope - Grieve's amendment means that parliament rather than the government drives what happens next.

The only way to stop that happening is vote of no confidence, could happen but again 'no chance' is over stating it, your track record on predicting things isn't great.

No it isn't - there are all sorts of other options once parliament is in the driving seat. For example parliament could chose to revoke article 50.

[ProfessorDavey]

The three options in order of preference.

1. May's deal - with Norway type deal as long term arrangement
2. No Deal - not ideal but much better than
3. Referendum - we would end at best in the same place we are now and at worst with the hard right on the march. With the hard left already in control of the Labour party we will likely end up with a bunch of ideologues in charge of country.

Those are not options of equivalence - a referendum is a mechanism of choosing an outcome option, not an outcome option in itself.

Currently there are 3 outcome options available that are deliverable by the UK government/parliament

1. Remain
2. May's deal
3. No deal

The decision may be taken by parliament (not the government) or parliament could decide to refer the decision to the people in a referendum. In the case of a referendum parliament may chose to narrow the choice to less than three options, and the electoral commission may also take a view if it felt that one option on the ballot paper was insufficiently defined.

There is a further aspect - which is that parliament could extend/delay the process either through request to the EU27 (not in the gift of the UK) or via revocation of article 50 (in parliament's gift) to permit an attempt at renegotiation and/or to hold a referendum.

[Udayana]

It doesn't seem likely that parliament would settle on remain without going back to the people with either an election or referendum for ratification.

[ProfessorDavey]

Interesting that a referendum is being openly discussed by cabinet members now - more interesting still that it is Amber Rudd who has raised it yesterday given that she is seen as one of the closest allies of the PM. May of course has denied it, but there is little doubt that Rudd's comments yesterday would have been agreed in advance at the very highest level.

Bit by bit the tone is changing - the direction of travel is in one direction only.

[jakswan]

Because she has to.

Why?

[jakswan]

Interesting that a referendum is being openly discussed by cabinet members now - more interesting still that it is Amber Rudd who has raised it yesterday given that she is seen as one of the closest allies of the PM. May of course has denied it, but there is little doubt that Rudd's comments yesterday would have been agreed in advance at the very highest level.

Bit by bit the tone is changing - the direction of travel is in one direction only.

I'd be happy with a referendum with two options:-

May's Deal
No Deal

I can see that getting through Parliament, I can't see a referendum with remain option getting through Parliament. Suspect Labour front bench will vote with the Tories & DUP, to block remain being an option, they will only admit that if they have to.

Once that becomes clear to remainiacs they will vote through May's deal.

[ProfessorDavey]

Why?

Because she is required under law to provide a meaningful vote on the brexit deal under Section 13 of the United Kingdom's European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. It is a requirement that the government of the United Kingdom bring forward an amendable parliamentary motion at the end of the Article 50 negotiations between the government and the European Union.

Not been following things very closely have you Jakswan.

[ProfessorDavey]

I'd be happy with a referendum with two options:-

May's Deal
No Deal

I can see that getting through Parliament, I can't see a referendum with remain option getting through Parliament. Suspect Labour front bench will vote with the Tories & DUP, to block remain being an option, they will only admit that if they have to.

Once that becomes clear to remainiacs they will vote through May's deal.

A two-way referendum of remain/May's deal has a much greater likelihood of getting through parliament than one for deal/no deal.

[jakswan]

Because she is required under law to provide a meaningful vote on the brexit deal under Section 13 of the United Kingdom's European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. It is a requirement that the government of the United Kingdom bring forward an amendable parliamentary motion at the end of the Article 50 negotiations between the government and the European Union.

I'll take your word for it.

Not been following things very closely have you Jakswan.

LOL, no I don't follow things that closely, amazing my track record on predicting things is so much better than you.  

[jakswan]

A two-way referendum of remain/May's deal has a much greater likelihood of getting through parliament than one for deal/no deal.

Not so sure..
Likely to vote for only Brexit option referendum
317 Tories
10 DUP
3/4 Labour backbench

Likely to vote for Remain option referendum
35 SNP
11 LibDems
150 Labour backbench

Labour leadership suspect would go Brexit only options, not certain on that.

Its going to mid-Jan now before this gets voted on, if its voted down, May has 1/2 weeks to come up with something else. So we are into Feb, tick-tock.

[ProfessorDavey]

I'll take your word for it.

LOL, no I don't follow things that closely, amazing my track record on predicting things is so much better than you.

Astonishing that you pontificate on all matters brexit, yet seem ignorant on the facts of the matter with regard to the actual process.

And if you mean by 'predicting things' whether article 50 would be triggered by end March 2017, I suggest you actually check my posts. I never said it wouldn't - what I said was that were Gina Miller to win her court case, requiring parliamentary approval, then the likelihood of meeting that deadline diminished markedly. That is was triggered before the end of March has no bearing on the accuracy of my statement.

[Gordon]

The Court of Session in Edinburgh confirms the ECJ ruling that Article 50 can be rescinded by the UK provided it does so using via an appropriate democratic process, such as a referendum or, presumably, a vote in Westminster. So the argument that there is only May's deal or no deal is wrong: there can be a 'remain' option that if agreed requires just a letter to the EU saying 'sorry folks, but we've changed our minds'.

That rescinding Article 50 is now a definite option, and no matter how much the Tories say they wouldn't do so, if May's deal is rejected in January then if Parliament steps in and decides the only way to break the deadlock is a referendum then 'remain' would surely appear on the ballot paper since the electorate now know for certain that 'remain' is an option that is available to them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46637382

[ProfessorDavey]

Likely to vote for only Brexit option referendum
317 Tories

You really are living in your own fantasy world.

Do you really think that every tory would vote for a referendum that included no deal. There are dozens on the record saying they will do anything to avoid the possibility of a no deal brexit and have already rebelled against the government to that effect.

Just a few of those names: Boles, Soubry, Woolaston, Clark, Grieve, Morgan, Allen, Bebb, Benyon, Djanogly, Fallon, Freeman, Graham, Green, Greening, Heald, Johnson, Lee, Lefroy, Letwin, Neill, Soames, Vaizey, Sandbach, Stevenson, Thomas

[ProfessorDavey]

10 DUP

You sure about that - a no deal brexit is the best way to ensure unification of Ireland. Just last week a poll reported that in the event of a no deal brexit people in NI would support unification with the republic by 55% to 42%. With May's deal, or some variant the public are equally split. Of course, remain is by far the most favoured outcome.

Perhaps you missed that poll, as you seem to be missing so much that is relevant to brexit - yet you still pontificate as if you have a clue.

[jakswan]

Astonishing that you pontificate on all matters brexit, yet seem ignorant on the facts of the matter with regard to the actual process.

I speculate on outcomes, you don't think anyone should be allowed an opinion unless they know the same as you?

And if you mean by 'predicting things' whether article 50 would be triggered by end March 2017, I suggest you actually check my posts. I never said it wouldn't - what I said was that were Gina Miller to win her court case, requiring parliamentary approval, then the likelihood of meeting that deadline diminished markedly. That is was triggered before the end of March has no bearing on the accuracy of my statement.

Davey wrong on Brexit, wrong on art50 getting through Parliament, wrong on there being an early election, wrong on DUP supporting staying in single market.
.

[jakswan]

You really are living in your own fantasy world.

It sad to see you reduced to ranting, come on now you can do better!

Do you really think that every tory would vote for a referendum that included no deal. There are dozens on the record saying they will do anything to avoid the possibility of a no deal brexit and have already rebelled against the government to that effect.

Just a few of those names: Boles, Soubry, Woolaston, Clark, Grieve, Morgan, Allen, Bebb, Benyon, Djanogly, Fallon, Freeman, Graham, Green, Greening, Heald, Johnson, Lee, Lefroy, Letwin, Neill, Soames, Vaizey, Sandbach, Stevenson, Thomas

By that measure I can take the votes of any Labour MP who has said that having another referendum would be damaging as voting the other way.

[jakswan]

You sure about that - a no deal brexit is the best way to ensure unification of Ireland. Just last week a poll reported that in the event of a no deal brexit people in NI would support unification with the republic by 55% to 42%. With May's deal, or some variant the public are equally split. Of course, remain is by far the most favoured outcome.

Perhaps you missed that poll, as you seem to be missing so much that is relevant to brexit - yet you still pontificate as if you have a clue.

No not sure, just think its likely, a no deal means a border and makes it much harder road to a United Ireland.