Brexit - the next steps

[jeremyp]

Sorry, the people did know. The question was in plain English.

The answer wasn't though.

[jeremyp]

Thanks.

The implication was that you thought that voting leave would result in unemployment growing by 500,000, which did not happen and now have been proven to be wrong.

How can he have been? The quote says "over the next few years". Brexit hasn't even happened yet.

[ProfessorDavey]

How can he have been? The quote says "over the next few years". Brexit hasn't even happened yet.

Actually it was from a report comparing the first period after the vote, rather than necessarily after brexit actually happened (there was a separate report on that).

So is unemployment 500,000 higher than one might have anticipated had we voted to remain. Well yes, there or there abouts.

So in the 9 quarters leading up to the vote unemployment fell by 711k and there is no reason to have expected any other trend had we voted to remain, so we'd have anticipated a further 711k drop in the 9 quarters since the vote. Yet unemployment has only dropped by 250k in the past 2 and a bit years. So unemployment is 461k higher than expected. Not quite 500k, but not far off.

[jeremyp]

Actually it was from a report comparing the first period after the vote, rather than necessarily after brexit actually happened (there was a separate report on that).

So is unemployment 500,000 higher than one might have anticipated had we voted to remain. Well yes, there or there abouts.

So in the 9 quarters leading up to the vote unemployment fell by 711k and there is no reason to have expected any other trend had we voted to remain, so we'd have anticipated a further 711k drop in the 9 quarters since the vote. Yet unemployment has only dropped by 250k in the past 2 and a bit years. So unemployment is 461k higher than expected. Not quite 500k, but not far off.

I did notice that Jakswan ignored the post with the links in that said all the predictions have more or less c one to pass.

[ProfessorDavey]

I did notice that Jakswan ignored the post with the links in that said all the predictions have more or less c one to pass.

Remember that the predictions were comparison of what would happen if we voted to leave compared to what would happen if we voted to remain.

So pretty well every prediction (including the employment/unemployment one) has proved to be remarkably accurate. Some of the effects have, of course, been mitigated in part by policy changes - a good example being CPI inflation - the report predicted a peak impact on inflation of +2.3% over the two years following a vote to leave. In fact this has been +2.0%, but the Bank of England have had to raise interest rates to dampen down inflation, and that, of course has effects on other parts of the economy.

[jakswan]

Further misrepresentation - the report was about the effect of a vote to leave baselined against what was likely to happen if we voted to remain. So you cannot say this did not happen without comparing the trendlines that have occurred over the past couple of years with what would likely have happened were we to have voted to remain - the best approach being to look at the trend in the 2 years or so up to June 2016 and to see whether there has been a marked shift in that trend linked to the leave vote.

Have you done this Jakswan?

You cited a report that stated that 500,000 jobs would be lost following a leave vote and quoted it explicitly. It is fair to conclude that you also thought 500,000 jobs would be lost, 500,000 jobs were not lost and you were wrong.

Lets look at what you wrote:-

Both are consistent one with another and the conclusion is clear - this a direct quote from the report published today:

'The analysis in this document comes to a clear central conclusion: a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise compared with a vote to remain.'

So the conclusion you thought would be clear and were wrong:-

1. push our economy into a recession - wrong
2.  lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000 - wrong
3. GDP would be 3.6% smaller - wrong
4. average real wages would be lower - wrong

[ProfessorDavey]

1. push our economy into a recession - wrong
2.  lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000 - wrong
3. GDP would be 3.6% smaller - wrong
4. average real wages would be lower - wrong

Incorrect on virtually all counts.

And again you are misrepresenting the situation, as you are failing to make the comparison between what would happen in the 2 years following a vote to leave compared to what would happen in the 2 years following a vote to remain.

So:
Inflation - prediction +2.3% - actual +2% (but at the expense of increased interest rates)
unemployment - prediction +500k - actual +460k
GDP - prediction -3.6% - actual -2.1% (but against stronger than expected global growth)
Exchange rate - prediction -12% - actual -12%
Average real wages - prediction -2.8% - actual -4%
Market share valuation - prediction -30% - actual -30%

So overall pretty accurate - the significant point being that in every case we are doing markedly worse than we would have had we voted to remain.

[jakswan]

Incorrect on virtually all counts.

And again you are misrepresenting the situation, as you are failing to make the comparison between what would happen in the 2 years following a vote to leave compared to what would happen in the 2 years following a vote to remain.

So:
Inflation - prediction +2.3% - actual +2% (but at the expense of increased interest rates)
unemployment - prediction +500k - actual +460k
GDP - prediction -3.6% - actual -2.1% (but against stronger than expected global growth)
Exchange rate - prediction -12% - actual -12%
Average real wages - prediction -2.8% - actual -4%
Market share valuation - prediction -30% - actual -30%

So overall pretty accurate - the significant point being that in every case we are doing markedly worse than we would have had we voted to remain.

Come off it Davey.

What you concluded was that following a vote to leave.

1. push our economy into a recession - there has been no recession
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

Give me two quarters with a downturn in GDP?

2.  lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000 - wrong
From ONS: May 2016 There were 31.70 million people in work, May 2018 There were 32.34 million people in work

3. GDP would be 3.6% smaller - wrong
ONS again: Q2 2016 £490,502m Q2 2018 £506,928m
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/qna#othertimeseries

4. average real wages would be lower
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/articles/supplementaryanalysisofaverageweeklyearnings/september2018

If you the quote you thought was a clear conclusion had been something like:-

Both are consistent one with another and the conclusion is clear - this a direct quote from the report published today:

'The analysis in this document comes to a clear central conclusion: a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy result in change to our economic growth and would mean slower decrease in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller compared to if we voted remain, average real wages would be lower grow at a slower rate, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise compared with a vote to remain.'

You could claim to have been right, but sadly for you, did not, and therefore were wrong.

[ad_orientem]

The answer wasn't though.

The answer was too: yes or no.

[ProfessorDavey]

1. push our economy into a recession - there has been no recession
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

Give me two quarters with a downturn in GDP?

You are correct we avoided a recession. We didn't have 2 quarters of negative growth

2.  lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000 - wrong
From ONS: May 2016 There were 31.70 million people in work, May 2018 There were 32.34 million people in work

Compared to the situation had we voted to remain. We should have had 700k fewer unemployed from June 2016 to present. In fact we have only 250k fewer. 460k people are currently unemployed who wouldn't have been had we voted to remain.

3. GDP would be 3.6% smaller - wrong
ONS again: Q2 2016 £490,502m Q2 2018 £506,928m
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/abmi/qna#othertimeseries

Compared to the situation had we voted to remain. Your own data suggest growth through those 2 years has been just 3.3%. Compare that to the 2016 OBR baseline (had we not voted to leave) of about 5.4%.

4. average real wages would be lower
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/articles/supplementaryanalysisofaverageweeklyearnings/september2018

Compared to the situation had we voted to remain. Your own link shows this clearly - just check out figs 1 and 2. In the 2 years up to June 2016 4% increase in average real wage levels. From June 2016 the graph flat lines, with the change up to June 2018 being just 0.2%.

So pretty well every prediction has come true - the only exception being that we didn't have 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

[jakswan]

You are correct we avoided a recession. We didn't have 2 quarters of negative growth
Compared to the situation had we voted to remain. We should have had 700k fewer unemployed from June 2016 to present. In fact we have only 250k fewer. 460k people are currently unemployed who wouldn't have been had we voted to remain.
Compared to the situation had we voted to remain. Your own data suggest growth through those 2 years has been just 3.3%. Compare that to the 2016 OBR baseline (had we not voted to leave) of about 5.4%.
Compared to the situation had we voted to remain. Your own link shows this clearly - just check out figs 1 and 2. In the 2 years up to June 2016 4% increase in average real wage levels. From June 2016 the graph flat lines, with the change up to June 2018 being just 0.2%.

So pretty well every prediction has come true - the only exception being that we didn't have 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

The post I quoted made no mention of compared to remain.

Demonstrably wrong and now lies to wriggle out of it, not a good look.

[jeremyp]

The answer was too: yes or no.

Only superficially. As has been shown by events since the vote, the answer is so complex, Parliament is in deadlock trying to figure it out.

[jeremyp]

The post I quoted made no mention of compared to remain.

Demonstrably wrong and now lies to wriggle out of it, not a good look.

I think this is a bit pathetic really. The fact is that there are 460,000 people out of work now who would have jobs had we voted Remain. I invite you to put yourself in the shoes of one of those 460,000 people.

[jakswan]

I think this is a bit pathetic really. The fact is that there are 460,000 people out of work now who would have jobs had we voted Remain. I invite you to put yourself in the shoes of one of those 460,000 people.

I agree Davey does come across a bit pathetic sometimes, but he debates well.

I think the economy has grown slower than if we voted remain, 460,000 extra jobs not sure is accurate.

In other News JC saves the day!

Corbyn: Brexit would go ahead even if Labour won snap election.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/21/jeremy-corbyn-labour-policy-leaving-eu

Without Corbyn support I can't see how Brexit can be reversed, I invite you to put yourself in the shoes of the centrist Labour MPs who despite thinking that Brexit is disaster have remained loyal so they can keep their jobs.

[jeremyp]

I agree Davey does come across a bit pathetic sometimes, but he debates well.

Whereas you seem to be using childish comebacks.

I think the economy has grown slower than if we voted remain, 460,000 extra jobs not sure is accurate.

Yes, OK, it's not exactly 460,000, but even if it were really only half that, it's still not a good thing to be passed off lightly as you are doing.

I invite you to put yourself in the shoes of the centrist Labour MPs who despite thinking that Brexit is disaster have remained loyal so they can keep their jobs.

You can treat unemployment as a joke if you like, I don't think it makes you look good.

[ProfessorDavey]

The post I quoted made no mention of compared to remain.

Yes it did - my posts in this section - 3309, 3306, 3304, 3302, 3297 all state that the comparison is with what would happen in the event of a remain vote.

And fundamentally this whole section is linked to you quoting from George Osborn's introduction to the 2016 report on short term effects, and then focusing on what it predicted. All those predictions (as was the purpose of the report) was to compare what would happen if we voted to leave compared to what would happen if we voted to remain.

[Gordon]

On the subject of George Osborne: his current view.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46655969

[ProfessorDavey]

I think the economy has grown slower than if we voted remain,

Let's look at the consequences of that shall we - beyond the fact that we are all poorer than we would have been.

GDP is 2.1% lower than it would have been, so the economy would have been 2.1% larger, we would have had 2.1% more money available for public expenditure with a same % tax take per GDP.

So public expenditure is currently £812bn - so without having to alter tax rates at all had we not voted to leave we would have had ad additional £17bn to spend on public services. Throw in the £2bn expenditure on no deal brexit planning and we are at an additional £19bn available. So per week we would have had an additional £366m available to spend - lets be cautious and round that down to a round £350m a week.

So had we voted to remain we would have had an extra £350m a week to spend on ... hmm ... let's think of a priority ... maybe the NHS.

There something in the back of my mind about £350m a week and the NHS - anyone able to help me out.

[jakswan]

Yes it did - my posts in this section - 3309, 3306, 3304, 3302, 3297 all state that the comparison is with what would happen in the event of a remain vote.

And fundamentally this whole section is linked to you quoting from George Osborn's introduction to the 2016 report on short term effects, and then focusing on what it predicted. All those predictions (as was the purpose of the report) was to compare what would happen if we voted to leave compared to what would happen if we voted to remain.

Again the conclusion you reached was that following a vote to leave.

1. push our economy into a recession - wrong
2.  lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000 - wrong
3. GDP would be 3.6% smaller - wrong
4. average real wages would be lower - wrong

You are now effectively saying
1. push our economy into a recession - concede this?
2. unemployment would fall faster if we voted to remain
3. GDP would grow slower and leave overall GDP 3.6% lower
4. Average real wages would grow faster if we voted to remain

The conclusion you came to was either wrong or your the conclusion you posted was willfully misleading.

Baffled last time remain lost because their campaign was sneering in tone, misleading and negative, now you want another vote on the same issue and look set to campaign on the same terms.

Anyway, with Corbyn coming out for leave another vote looks dead as a dodo.

[jeremyp]

You are now effectively saying
1. push our economy into a recession - concede this?

So far. The signs are not looking good though.

2. unemployment would fall faster if we voted to remain

There would be around 460,000 fewer people unemployed if we had voted Remain. You seem to be unwilling to confront that fact for some reason.

3. GDP would grow slower and leave overall GDP 3.6% lower

Obviously, if GDP grows more slowly the gap between what it would be and what it is rises with time. Furthermore, even 3.6% is significant in terms of government income. Q3 GDP was £500 billion approximately. 3.6% of that is £18 billion. That's probably a billion or so tax receipts not collected, just for one quarter.

4. Average real wages would grow faster if we voted to remain

Don't you want to be a bit richer?

Baffled last time remain lost because their campaign was sneering in tone, misleading and negative, now you want another vote on the same issue and look set to campaign on the same terms.

I'll accept negative, but the other stuff is false. The Leave campaigns, on the other hand, outright lied and one of them broke the law with respect to funding.

Anyway, with Corbyn coming out for leave another vote looks dead as a dodo.

Corbyn is a useless twat. If there's another vote, it will be despite him, not because of him. This has always been the case. He's a Leaver, like you.

[jakswan]

So far. The signs are not looking good though.There would be around 460,000 fewer people unemployed if we had voted Remain. You seem to be unwilling to confront that fact for some reason. Obviously, if GDP grows more slowly the gap between what it would be and what it is rises with time. Furthermore, even 3.6% is significant in terms of government income. Q3 GDP was £500 billion approximately. 3.6% of that is £18 billion. That's probably a billion or so tax receipts not collected, just for one quarter.Don't you want to be a bit richer?

You seem to agree with me that Davey was wrong. As to the being richer I voted leave to end political union.

I'll accept negative, but the other stuff is false. The Leave campaigns, on the other hand, outright lied and one of them broke the law with respect to funding.

Not doing the actual debate again, you accept negative, want to run the campaign again and win this time? My tip would be not to be negative again.

Corbyn is a useless twat. If there's another vote, it will be despite him, not because of him. This has always been the case. He's a Leaver, like you.

I think there will not be another vote because of Corbyn, Corbyn is kept there by centrist MPs, they are holding onto their jobs, if you listen to them Brexit is the end of the world but if they really thought that you would think they would do anything to reverse it.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Fuck Brexit.

[Gordon]

Fuck Brexit.

For once, Vlad, we are in agreement.

[jeremyp]

You seem to agree with me that Davey was wrong.

I was under the impression that I was agreeing with PD.

As to the being richer I voted leave to end political union.

We will still be in a political union, one the Scots and the Northern Irish may now seek to leave, and although I am against Scottish independence, I wouldn't blame them for telling us to fuck off.

I'm also not entirely sure what you think is wrong with political unions. The EU looks to me like a fantastic one to be in given our geographic location.

Not doing the actual debate again, you accept negative, want to run the campaign again and win this time? My tip would be not to be negative again.

There doesn't need to be another campaign. We've had Brexit rammed down our throats for two and a half years. If the country can look at the current mess and still believe Brexit is a good idea, so be it. I think I'll be doing my best to get out.

I think there will not be another vote because of Corbyn, Corbyn is kept there by centrist MPs, they are holding onto their jobs, if you listen to them Brexit is the end of the world but if they really thought that you would think they would do anything to reverse it.

Well when push comes to shove, maybe they'll have the balls to put country before their own miserable careers. Who knows? I'm sure neither of us do.

[Roses]

Corbyn has not made himself popular with Labour members  who oppose Brexit, as apparently he says he will press ahead with it if he wins any imminent upcoming election, should there be one.