Brexit - the next steps

[jakswan]

I was under the impression that I was agreeing with PD.

You are agreeing what he is claiming now, not with what he claimed.

We will still be in a political union, one the Scots and the Northern Irish may now seek to leave, and although I am against Scottish independence, I wouldn't blame them for telling us to fuck off.

They have a right to choose, I think everyone would be better of if Scotland left the Union.

I'm also not entirely sure what you think is wrong with political unions. The EU looks to me like a fantastic one to be in given our geographic location.

Not against political unions per se, I do not think the EU is properly accountable to the electorate, not saying UK is perfect but it is better.

There doesn't need to be another campaign. We've had Brexit rammed down our throats for two and a half years. If the country can look at the current mess and still believe Brexit is a good idea, so be it. I think I'll be doing my best to get out.

Fair enough.

Well when push comes to shove, maybe they'll have the balls to put country before their own miserable careers. Who knows? I'm sure neither of us do.

Maybe it is that or they just don't beleive their own spin.

Independant article.
The Labour leader seems determined to ignore what his members think – by which I mean he adheres unflinchingly to his principles
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-brexit-second-referendum-peoples-vote-labour-theresa-may-john-mcdonnell-a8696111.html

[ProfessorDavey]

You are agreeing what he is claiming now, not with what he claimed.

And what claim would that be exactly Jakswan.

Are you continuing to misrepresent the predictions in the official government report on short term effects of a vote to leave as being from me.

There never were my claims, still aren't, but with the exception of the recession prediction, pretty well every predictions has turned out to have happened. Noting of course, that all the predictions were a comparison between what would happen if we voted to leave compared to what would happen if we voted to remain. In some cases the effects have been worse than predicted, in some others a little better (albeit still way worse than had we voted to remain). In some cases spot on.

[jakswan]

And what claim would that be exactly Jakswan.

You said the conclusion was clear and therefore you concluded that following a vote to leave this would:-

1. push our economy into a recession - wrong
2.  lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000 - wrong
3. GDP would be 3.6% smaller - wrong
4. average real wages would be lower - wrong

Are you continuing to misrepresent the predictions in the official government report on short term effects of a vote to leave as being from me.

Nope.

There never were my claims, still aren't,

So when you said:-

Both are consistent one with another and the conclusion is clear - this a direct quote from the report published today:

'The analysis in this document comes to a clear central conclusion: a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower, inflation higher, sterling weaker, house prices would be hit and public borrowing would rise compared with a vote to remain.'

It was fair to assume you agreed with the quote, if you did not agree with the quote why post it?

[ProfessorDavey]

You said the conclusion was clear and therefore you concluded that following a vote to leave this would:-

1. push our economy into a recession - wrong
2.  lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000 - wrong
3. GDP would be 3.6% smaller - wrong
4. average real wages would be lower - wrong

Remember that these are about comparisons between the situation if we voted to leave and if we voted to remain.

So having voted to leave which of these predictions were qualitatively correct:

Lead to more unemployment compared to a vote to remain - yes
Lead to lower growth and smaller GDP compared to a vote to remain - yes
Lead to increased inflation compared to a vote to remain - yes
Higher interest rates compared to a vote to remain - yes
Lower average real wages compared to a vote to remain - yes
Weaker stock market performance compared to a vote to remain - yes
Weaker house price growth compared to a vote to remain - yes
Weaker public finances compared to a vote to remain - yes

Quantitatively some were a little less bad than the central prediction, some a little worse than the central prediction - but in broad terms the predictions were all correct with the exception of a recession, which is a technical definition and a quantitative rather than qualitative prediction, as we know GDP growth has been significantly weaker than if we'd voted to remain - effectively reducing tax receipts and public finances by about £300-350m per week.

[jakswan]

Remember that these are about comparisons between the situation if we voted to leave and if we voted to remain.

So having voted to leave which of these predictions were qualitatively correct:

Lead to more unemployment compared to a vote to remain - yes
Lead to lower growth and smaller GDP compared to a vote to remain - yes
Lead to increased inflation compared to a vote to remain - yes
Higher interest rates compared to a vote to remain - yes
Lower average real wages compared to a vote to remain - yes
Weaker stock market performance compared to a vote to remain - yes
Weaker house price growth compared to a vote to remain - yes
Weaker public finances compared to a vote to remain - yes

Quantitatively some were a little less bad than the central prediction, some a little worse than the central prediction - but in broad terms the predictions were all correct with the exception of a recession, which is a technical definition and a quantitative rather than qualitative prediction, as we know GDP growth has been significantly weaker than if we'd voted to remain - effectively reducing tax receipts and public finances by about £300-350m per week.

Again what you are saying now is different to what you said then.

[ProfessorDavey]

Again what you are saying now is different to what you said then.

When is then and what exactly did I say then?

[Roses]

A little girl asked her father, "Daddy? Do all fairy tales begin with
'Once Upon A Time'?"

He replied, "No, there is a whole series of fairy tales that begin with
'If elected I promise'."

[ProfessorDavey]

Check out the link and particularly the graph.

https://fullfact.org/economy/uk-economic-growth-within-g7/

Note how the UK was growing significantly above the G7 average through the 2 years prior to the vote - indeed we were the fastest growing G7 economy for much of that time.

Then suddenly mid 2016 (I wonder what happened then) a major shift as we drop significantly behind the G7 average, so become one of the the slowest growing economies and at times the slowest of the lot. (see the second graph).

[Walt Zingmatilder]

There is no point showing graphs Prof.....or quoting experts.

The national trajectory of decades....proving that bullshit baffles brains...being the class clown at 15 and the top graduate summa cum laude in the university of life and hard knocks....(formerly Gammon Polytechnic) at 50 has inexorably brought us to this point.

[Harrowby Hall]

In the spirit of Christmas, Prof and Jakswan, could you please stop this tedious process? Neither of you will convince the other.

Although my own sympathies lie with ProfessorDavey I fear that this discussion has reached the level of two entomologists arguing about the number of toenails on a millipede - where each has chosen a different species for reference. I mean no discourtesy to either of you, but the discussion seems to be going nowhere.

...

One aspect of Brexit which no-one appears to have considered is that - since the days of Thatcher - "Britain" has been up for sale. The influx of currencies from ... wherever ... appears to be paramount. Any bid from abroad for a UK owed business seems to be permissable. Apart from one or two niche manufacturers like Morgan, there is no British-owned motor vehicle manufacturer. The most overtly British brand - Jaguar Land Rover - is Indian-owned. Mini and Rolls-Royce are owned by BMW and Bentley by VAG.

Other brands are part of larger manufacturing networks. Nissan may have one of the most efficient manufacturing plants in the world, at Washington, but it is controlled by Renault. Vauxhall has moved ownership from General Motors to Peugeot.

In other industries, Cadburys is buried inside Mondelez International (the result of a restructuring of Kraft) - an American company. Mondelez also owns Terrys of York, but manufactures in Poland.

 Heathrow Airport and O2 are owned by Spanish interests. The list goes on ...


All this may be fine at the moment, but ignores the fact that strategy is determined elsewhere. There can be little doubt that should Brexit become at all troublesome then overseas corporations will look after their own immediate interests and simplify their operations by removing UK operations, suppliers and supply chains from their businesses.

I suppose that one bright hope, however, is that following Brexit, the value of the pound might drop so much that manufacturing in England (Scotland will be independent by now) will become so cheap that England will become the Bangladesh of the western world. Something to look forward to ...

[Aruntraveller]

HH, I admired the start of your post and then emitted a wail of despair towards the end. Your Bangladesh of the Western world is surely just an invitation to someone to carry on arguing the toss.

A brave try, but ultimately a fail I fear.

[Stranger]

Okay, so how much attention have you been paying to the Brexit shit show?

Festive Brexit quiz: Is Britain now a vassal state? Test your knowledge with the Brexit quiz of the year

Got 10/12.   

[Harrowby Hall]

Boasting. I only managed 6/12. But then, why should I know where Amber Rudd shops?


Trent

Just for clarification - my conclusion about the future of England was based on the following:

To be a successful manufacturer, you need to be either (1) a niche operator - with an established, specialist product that satisfies the needs of a small but appreciative market, or (2) be able to capitalise on the economies of scale to produce large quantities of mid and high price consumer products for a global market or (3) have a low wage labour force able to produce large quantities of low cost consumer products.

The first type - because of its nature will always be small scale and looking over its shoulder to make sure that its product doesn't become a commodity.

The second - this is, for example, how the mass motor industry (of which we are presently a significant part) operates - but includes industries in which strategic decisions are made elsewhere based on convenience and immediate benefit to the industry. Any development which imposes barriers or extra processes will result in that industry withdrawing.

A devalued currency will bring lower wages which will mean that labour-intensive operations will become more attractive. We could become a cheap-labour economy.

[Aruntraveller]

Just for clarification - my conclusion about the future of England was based on the following:

I wasn't doubting your analysis. Just that urging posters to stop, and then pouring petrol on the fire may be a little counterproductive

Have a lovely Christmas day whatever you choose to do with it.

As Frankie Boyle says elsewhere, it may be our last one with running water.

[Harrowby Hall]

You may well be right - it was provocative.

Anyway, the compliments of the season to you, too.

[Aruntraveller]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46704522

DFDS taking back control for us.

You may want to get some lead casing for your Irony meter.

[Nearly Sane]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46704522

DFDS taking back control for us.

You may want to get some lead casing for your Irony meter.

Seabourne Ferry, no ferry


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46714984

[Aruntraveller]

Yet again our government showing its complete mastery of nothingness.

[Spud]

Recent opinion polls would suggest that they are.

On PM on R4 last night, an MP for one of the Bristol constituencies was interviewed. He had carried out a survey of his constituents and found that they were overwhelmingly in support of Remain now (over 70%) but the interesting point is that more people (80%) were in favour of a new referendum than were in favour of Remain.

I've been watching two petitions. The Leave without a deal one is still increasing steadily at 288,000 whereas the Stop Brexit one has slowed to a trickle at 106,000.
(Correction: they are both at a trickle, the first at a slightly faster trickle)

[Harrowby Hall]

Yet again our government showing its complete mastery of nothingness.

What would you expect? Mrs May's prime concern is the state of the Conservative Party not the state of the nation.

[ProfessorDavey]

Seabourne Ferry, no ferry


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46714984

It gets worse:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46748193

[Walt Zingmatilder]

It gets worse:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46748193

I think the driver delivered Grayling to the cabinet by mistake instead of Frey bentos.

[Nearly Sane]

Have a couple of holidays booked in the next few months. The first one will be the last on current dates as EU citizens.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Let us outline the difference between Rees Mogg and Soubry
Rees Mogg proposes a scheme which involves unemployment, the paralysis of Kent, economic crash, food shortages, medical shortage, the opportunity to profit from a ruined economy.

Soubry is against this.

[Harrowby Hall]

Let us outline the difference between Rees Mogg and Soubry
Rees Mogg proposes a scheme which involves unemployment, the paralysis of Kent, economic crash, food shortages, medical shortage, the opportunity to profit from a ruined economy.

Soubry is against this.

Then she is clearly a danger to the will of the people.

How dare she stand in the way of England becoming the Venezuela of Europe!