Brexit - the next steps

[Harrowby Hall]

If there's any justice, at the next general election, the Tories will be massacred, and be out of power for a generation.

If there's any justice ... the Conservative Party will split and there will be a move to install some electoral system which is representative not just First Past the Post.

This will force smaller parties to behave collectively and co-operatively resulting in legislative decisions and executive actions which are generally beneficial not just partisan crowd pleasing.

[Spud]

Interesting quote by a remainer on LBC tonight. Parliament doesn't necessarily exist to give the people what they want, but what's best for them.

[SteveH]

Interesting quote by a remainer on LBC tonight. Parliament doesn't necessarily exist to give the people what they want, but what's best for them.

Not if the government wants to get re-elected, it doesn't.

[ProfessorDavey]

Interesting quote by a remainer on LBC tonight. Parliament doesn't necessarily exist to give the people what they want, but what's best for them.

And exactly what do the people want in Jan 2019 - do you know Spud? Is there majority support for May's deal by the public? Do they support No Deal? Has the demographic shift and people changing their minds mean that a majority would now prefer to remain.

There is, of course, one way we could not only find out but also make the final decision.

[Harrowby Hall]

Not if the government wants to get re-elected, it doesn't.

Parliament isn't "the government". Governments are not elected, Members of Parliament are. In the UK constitutional arrangement, the executive gets its legitimacy from being the dominant party in the legislature.

According to Edmund Burke - and re-iterated over the centuries by just about every constitutional luminary since, the MP owes his or her constituents the fruits of his or her own judgement, not slavish obedience. Last night we saw something potentially remarkable: we saw individual MPs trusting their own judgement rather than slavishly obeying their party whips.

According to the French political philosopher Montesquieu, the most perfect form of government occurs when the three powers of government - the legislature, the judiciary and the executive - are each completely separated from the others. The British constitution fails this test abysmally.

[Roses]

It is a complete mess, especially now the no confidence motion is another spanner in the works, although it is unlikely May will be ousted, according to John McDonnall.

[Nearly Sane]

It is a complete mess, especially now the no confidence motion is another spanner in the works, although it is unlikely May will be ousted, according to John McDonnall.

Just to be clear, it isn't a no confidence motion in May, it's a no confidence motion in the govt. There can't be a no confidence motion in May - an internal Tory party procedure until next December because they had the attempt last year. That doesn't mean she cannot be ousted in an unofficial way. After all Thatcher was. If enough cabinet ministers were to revolt, it make her position untenable.

[SteveH]

If she had a shred of honour, she'd resign without being pushed - indeed, would have done so after losing her majority in the 2017 election.

[Spud]

And exactly what do the people want in Jan 2019 - do you know Spud? Is there majority support for May's deal by the public? Do they support No Deal? Has the demographic shift and people changing their minds mean that a majority would now prefer to remain.

There is, of course, one way we could not only find out but also make the final decision.

One thing is clear, which is that Jesus is the boss. He said that a kingdom divided against itself cannot stand. This is true for the Leave side - they are divided, half of them wanting hard brexit (Rees-Mogg, Johnson et al), the other half want soft brexit (Corbyn, Labour (I think?)). These two groups oppose each other, so I wonder if they can stand against the Remainers?

Personally I think there is someone who does need to make like a Theresa and Leave (and Maybe do a jig on the way) - I am as irritated by her as by Brown when he was in Downing Street. But I think she has worked very hard so it's understandable that she wants her deal to be ratified. But she shouldn't make it her "precious"!

Whatever "the people" want, that should be advisory only because half of us don't know our right from our left, when it comes to politics and the economy.

[Anchorman]

One thing is clear, which is that Jesus is the boss. He said that a kingdom divided against itself cannot stand. This is true for the Leave side - they are divided, half of them wanting hard brexit (Rees-Mogg, Johnson et al), the other half want soft brexit (Corbyn, Labour (I think?)). These two groups oppose each other, so I wonder if they can stand against the Remainers? Personally I think there is someone who does need to make like a Theresa and Leave (and Maybe do a jig on the way) - I am as irritated by her as by Brown when he was in Downing Street. But I think she has worked very hard so it's understandable that she wants her deal to be ratified. But she shouldn't make it her "precious"! Whatever "the people" want, that should be advisory only because half of us don't know our right from our left, when it comes to politics and the economy.

Hey! That's what I call prophesy! "A kingdom divided against itself cannot stand". Yep....I love Scripture. Bye bye britain, then.... Alba gu brath!

[Nearly Sane]

If she had a shred of honour, she'd resign without being pushed - indeed, would have done so after losing her majority in the 2017 election.

Thing is, in one sense it's almost meaningless. May is not the problem here, and getting rid of her doesn't solve anything. I'm not sure that 'honour' has anything to do with it.

ETA: And there seems to me to be an argument that staying is also an honourable thing. If she resigns, it just increases the uncertainty. There's an argument, as there has been since the referendum, that this needs to be run as some sort of govt of national unity. Indeed I think Corbyn might have been better last not to go for the No Confidence vote option, especially after May said 'On you go!', but rather said that in order to get the country working he would offer to listen to all party talks with everything up for grabs.

[Roses]

If she had a shred of honour, she'd resign without being pushed - indeed, would have done so after losing her majority in the 2017 election.

But we might get Boris or Rees-Mogg as PM if she does that, which would be much worse!

[SteveH]

But we might get Boris or Rees-Mogg as PM if she does that, which would be much worse!

The fact remains.

[Udayana]

Thing is, in one sense it's almost meaningless. May is not the problem here, and getting rid of her doesn't solve anything. I'm not sure that 'honour' has anything to do with it.

ETA: And there seems to me to be an argument that staying is also an honourable thing. If she resigns, it just increases the uncertainty. There's an argument, as there has been since the referendum, that this needs to be run as some sort of govt of national unity. Indeed I think Corbyn might have been better last not to go for the No Confidence vote option, especially after May said 'On you go!', but rather said that in order to get the country working he would offer to listen to all party talks with everything up for grabs.

You didn't listen to Leadsom on the the Today programme this morning?

May's complete inflexibility has certainly been a major hindrance from the start. Almost no chance that any offer by Corbyn would be heard:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/16/theresa-may-fails-to-reach-out-to-jeremy-corbyn-to-strike-brexit-compromise

[Nearly Sane]

You didn't listen to Leadsom on the the Today programme this morning?

May's complete inflexibility has certainly been a major hindrance from the start. Almost no chance that any offer by Corbyn would be heard:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/16/theresa-may-fails-to-reach-out-to-jeremy-corbyn-to-strike-brexit-compromise

Yes, I agree that May has a lot of responsibility here. I just think that Corbyn's effectively fallen into a trap where it looks like he's playing at something for the party and not the country, and he's going to lose the vote of no confidence anyway.

[jeremyp]

Staggering stuff: and where do we go from here I wonder.

As things stand, there are currently two options:

• No Deal
• Withdraw article 50

[SteveH]

As things stand, there are currently two options:

• No Deal
• Withdraw article 50

Second referendum?

[jeremyp]

Interesting quote by a remainer on LBC tonight. Parliament doesn't necessarily exist to give the people what they want, but what's best for them.

Yep. That's right. It's called "representative democracy".

[jeremyp]

If she had a shred of honour, she'd resign without being pushed - indeed, would have done so after losing her majority in the 2017 election.

If May resigned now, it would take weeks to elect her successor. We don't have weeks.

Anyway, I think deserting the sinking ship now is the dishonourable thing to do. When Cameron lost an important vote, we didn't praise his honour when he subsequently bravely turned his tail and fled.

[jeremyp]

Second referendum?

It can't be organised in time.

[Nearly Sane]

As things stand, there are currently two options:

• No Deal
• Withdraw article 50

I think the possibility of an extension of article 50 is still viable. It's just not fully in our control.

[jeremyp]

I think the possibility of an extension of article 50 is still viable. It's just not fully in our control.

That's the only reason why I excluded it. I actually think it is quite likely the EU will allow us to extend it.

[ProfessorDavey]

It can't be organised in time.

It would require extension of article 50, or revocation specifically to permit referendum to take place. The former isn't in the gift of the UK Government and Parliament (but it is unlikely that the EU would object), the latter is.

[Spud]

Hey! That's what I call prophesy! "A kingdom divided against itself cannot stand". Yep....I love Scripture. Bye bye britain, then.... Alba gu brath!

If you like... but then, I still haven't worked out why you wanna be in the EU but not the UK. Unless you like Unions but not Kingdoms? Or would you be cool with the UK if England had agreed to stay in the EU?

[jeremyp]

If you like... but then, I still haven't worked out why you wanna be in the EU but not the UK. Unless you like Unions but not Kingdoms? Or would you be cool with the UK if England had agreed to stay in the EU?

He just hates everything to do with perfidious Albion.