Brexit - the next steps

[jeremyp]

Five minutes ago over 1,300,00.

Broken 2,000,000. I wonder how many signatures it has to have before the BBC starts reporting it.

[Udayana]

No, it ends with no deal. An extension is for something. The EU have said the WA is the deal. There is not a magic new deal

Sorry, you are not making sense to me. 

The WA is not a deal, it allows for a 2 years transition period, during which all the things Corbyn wants can be negotiated or implemented. Whatever the long term deal he wants the WA must be agreed as is before further negotiations. All the changes he needs are to the non binding Political Declaration not the WA (as I understand things).

 

[wigginhall]

Aren't the EU also saying (covertly) vote against the deal, get rid of May, and get a long extension and a soft Brexit?   Depends if enough Tories are regicides.

[Udayana]

Aren't the EU also saying (covertly) vote against the deal, get rid of May, and get a long extension and a soft Brexit?   Depends if enough Tories are regicides.

I don't think so. They have clearly tried to keep as many options open for as long as they can.

[Gordon]

I see Hilary Benn et al have already tabled an amendment for next week (see 8.37 entry in BBC live stream) so as to allow indicative votes, and Bercow still has confirm he will allow MV3.

I wonder if those Labour MPs who supported May before, on the basis that we had to abide that the result of that flawed referendum. would oppose her MV3 now (if it happens) on that basis that leaving under a softer Brexit has probably just become an option.
 

[wigginhall]

A long extension seems possible, but seems to require an improbable series of events, e.g., getting rid of May, and finding a leader who is not hard Brexit, I.e., not Johnson.   A general election seems obvious, but Tories will probably resist.

[Anchorman]

No-one with anysense in the Tory pary (assuming such creaturesexist) would go fora leadership contest, though. Were a hard righter like Johnson, or, heaven forbid, Rees-Mogg, to get the poisoned chalice, many of the more moderate Tories would simply throw in the towel andquit, leaving what was left of the Tories with no chance of a continuing mandate to govern.

[Nearly Sane]

No-one with anysense in the Tory pary (assuming such creaturesexist) would go fora leadership contest, though. Were a hard righter like Johnson, or, heaven forbid, Rees-Mogg, to get the poisoned chalice, many of the more moderate Tories would simply throw in the towel andquit, leaving what was left of the Tories with no chance of a continuing mandate to govern.

There already a number of shadow campaigns for leadership out there, Johnson's been given 15k by JCB for his campaign, Raab has a slogan - Ready for Raab, Truss has a new charity thing, it's all systems go. The current front runner seems to be Gove

[wigginhall]

Yes, May stays, appalling though she is, as the Tories are worried about splits if a hard or soft new leader is elected.  I suppose the hope is that the Commons rejects her deal, and votes for something else, e.g., soft Brexit, and May quits.   The EU is almost giving a nudge. 

[Udayana]

Suppose MV3 failed and May (claiming she had tried her best) then quit. Would a motion requesting a long extension (including UK MEP elections being organised and held)  pass? 

[wigginhall]

Suppose MV3 failed and May (claiming she had tried her best) then quit. Would a motion requesting a long extension (including UK MEP elections being organised and held)  pass?

No idea.  The EU seem to be dangling that carrot, and there are supposed to be a majority of remain or soft Brexit MPs.  Trouble is, it requires some Tories to wield the axe.

[Udayana]

Yes, May stays, appalling though she is, as the Tories are worried about splits if a hard or soft new leader is elected.  I suppose the hope is that the Commons rejects her deal, and votes for something else, e.g., soft Brexit, and May quits.   The EU is almost giving a nudge.

I still think that for an MP wanting a soft brexit the safest thing to do is to vote for May's deal, then push for staying in the customs union during the implementation period. Especially if it looks like there is no solution to the Irish border issue.

[wigginhall]

I still think that for an MP wanting a soft brexit the safest thing to do is to vote for May's deal, then push for staying in the customs union during the implementation period. Especially if it looks like there is no solution to the Irish border issue.

Yes, that's possible.  One problem is that if May goes, we may get a headbanger as leader.  If she stays, she is the headbanger.

[Udayana]

Yes, that's possible.  One problem is that if May goes, we may get a headbanger as leader.  If she stays, she is the headbanger.

I don't think she can last long even if her deal passes. Her right wing will revolt and a no confidence vote could pass.

[ProfessorDavey]

I don't think she can last long even if her deal passes. Her right wing will revolt and a no confidence vote could pass.

A vote of no confidence in the government, or in her?

I don't think her own party are going to vote against their own government in a vote of no confidence in parliament. And there cannot be another vote of no confidence in May by her own party MPs until Dec as they tried and failed to win such a vote before xmas and a tory leader cannot face another vote of confidence for a year following victory in such a vote.

[Udayana]

A vote of no confidence in the government, or in her?

I don't think her own party are going to vote against their own government in a vote of no confidence in parliament. And there cannot be another vote of no confidence in May by her own party MPs until Dec as they tried and failed to win such a vote before xmas and a tory leader cannot face another vote of confidence for a year following victory in such a vote.

I meant a no confidence vote against the government. The government only have a slim majority and could well lose the support of the DUP and any hard brexiters who see anything other than no-deal as betrayal.   

[ProfessorDavey]

I meant a no confidence vote against the government. The government only have a slim majority and could well lose the support of the DUP and any hard brexiters who see anything other than no-deal as betrayal.

Possibly but I would not be sure.

It is certainly possible that the DUP could jump ship on confidence, but whether that would be to voting against the government rather than abstaining isn't clear.

I think it unlikely that any current Tory MPs would vote against their own government in a confidence vote - to do so would mean instant expulsion from the party and if they were then party-less (or not confirmed as a candidate for another party) in the resulting general election they'd be out of parliament.

Not certain that the TIGGers would vote agains the government rather than abstain - they aren't fans of Corbyn in case you hadn't noticed

[jeremyp]

No-one with anysense in the Tory pary (assuming such creaturesexist) would go fora leadership contest, though. Were a hard righter like Johnson, or, heaven forbid, Rees-Mogg, to get the poisoned chalice, many of the more moderate Tories would simply throw in the towel andquit, leaving what was left of the Tories with no chance of a continuing mandate to govern.

And, of course, the reverse also applies (i.e. were a more moderate MP to win, the right of the party would quit). A leadership campaign now, irrespective of the winner, would destroy the Tories, probably for a generation.

[jeremyp]

I meant a no confidence vote against the government. The government only have a slim majority and could well lose the support of the DUP and any hard brexiters who see anything other than no-deal as betrayal.

But a general election now might see a lot of Tory MPs losing their seats and the DUP losing their leverage. The government will not lose a vote of no confidence.

[wigginhall]

One of the interesting things happening is that the EU have bypassed May, as they have realized she is completely rigid, and hates parliament.   So they are offering other choices, but whether or not MPs can utilize this - dunno.  I notice that Peston is pessimistic about it.

[Spud]

It all seems pointless if the MPs aren't given free/unwhipped votes.

[Gordon]

Nice to know that no-deal planning is going well:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/22/secret-cabinet-office-document-reveals-chaotic-planning-for-no-deal-brexit

Yet some still yearn for no-deal.

[jeremyp]

Nice to know that no-deal planning is going well:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/22/secret-cabinet-office-document-reveals-chaotic-planning-for-no-deal-brexit

Yet some still yearn for no-deal.

Given how well planning for a Deal Brexit is going, would you expect anything else?

[Nearly Sane]

And let us always remember that the WA is the easy bit.

[torridon]

Quite right... I've emailed my MP to explain why I voted leave and why I now think we should remain. Meanwhile, this petition to parliament is gaining about 200 signatures every 10 seconds!
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

Applause for Spud.

It's good that we can rethink and be prepared to change our minds.