Brexit - the next steps

[Nearly Sane]

Call me a cock-eyed optimist but maybe just maybe after trying every possible permutation and failed enough MPs will finally do the right thing and put it to the country in another referendum, only this time with the checks and balances in place to avoid the utter corruption of the prior one. I'd have thought a commitment to another referendum would be good enough for the EU to agree the necessary extension.     

You're a cock-eyed optimist. I think it will be incredibly difficult to get a motion through approving s second referendum. EU commission saying No Deal is 'a likely scenario' and I fear that it is possibly the most likely scenario now.

[Gordon]

You're a cock-eyed optimist. I think it will be incredibly difficult to get a motion through approving s second referendum. EU commission saying No Deal is 'a likely scenario' and I fear that it is possibly the most likely scenario now.

I'd have thought now would be the time for a No Confidence motion, since if it succeeds I'd imagine that the prospect of a GE would be grounds for the EU to suggest a longer extension of A50 in the hope that the eventual outcome would be no Brexit, and less disruption in the EU.

It is a mess - more that ever we need Malcolm Tucker.

[bluehillside Retd.]

jeremy,

Stuff it. I say withdraw article 50.

Trouble is, if that happened there's a large community who would object strongly to what they'd see as the negation of their democratic decision. The problem with explaining to them that they were conned with a prospectus with was fundamentally not true is that the people who did the lying - Gove, Davies,  Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Farage, Fox etc - are still there, and bizarrely too are taken seriously by a BBC in particular that seems to be incapable to holding them to account.   

Take Raab for example. He resigned as Brexit secretary in protest again the deal that he'd negotiated. Then in December he said that the deal was worse than staying in. Then today he voted for it. Where the hell do you even begin with idiots like that?     

[bluehillside Retd.]

I noticed that after the vote today May said, "I fear we're reaching the limits of the process in this house". Might be nothing, but could "in this house" be a hint that given a choice between and GE and second referendum that would at least leave the Tories in power she'd opt for the latter?   

[Nearly Sane]

I noticed that after the vote today May said, "I fear we're reaching the limits of the process in this house". Might be nothing, but could "in this house" be a hint that given a choice between and GE and second referendum that would at least leave the Tories in power she'd opt for the latter?

Could be read in support of either. I note it is 'reaching' and not 'reached'

[Gordon]

Just seen the quote from Chris Grayling - I don't suppose, having given a ferry contract to a company with no boats, he intended to be ironic:

'Parliament has to sort this out: we cannot simply leave the country drifting rudderless into I don’t know what'.

Priceless.

[SusanDoris]

Has there actually been a third vote on the deal? If so, why did  burko change his mind a bout allowing it?

[Nearly Sane]

Has there actually been a third vote on the deal? If so, why did  burko change his mind a bout allowing it?

Because the govt changed it to just being a vote on the Withdrawal Agreement alone, and that was deemed significant enough change. It still lost.

[bluehillside Retd.]

Because the govt changed it to just being a vote on the Withdrawal Agreement alone, and that was deemed significant enough change. It still lost.

And if she was minded to give it a fourth go next week, following Bercow's dictum she'd have to devise a version at least "significantly" different from the one she tried today.

[Nearly Sane]

Marina Hyde on the Tory contenders



https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/29/tory-leadership-contest-brexit-conservative-party?CMP=share_btn_tw

[SusanDoris]

thanks for above replies.

[jeremyp]

jeremy,

Trouble is, if that happened there's a large community who would object strongly to what they'd see as the negation of their democratic decision.

The community that wants to Remain is pretty large too and many of them see Brexit as a negation of their EU rights.

There are two options left given the deadline: exit with no deal. Remain. Which are you going to choose?

[Udayana]

...
There are two options left given the deadline: exit with no deal. Remain. Which are you going to choose?

Not sure how you figure that... most commentators think that all the options remain on the table unchanged except, possibly, another short extension - that card already having been played once.

Once thing is clear though, whatever the conclusion of the further indicative votes next week: The Tories cannot be trusted with a mere change to the PD, adding a CU say, as May or a new PM could drop it during the implementation period.

[Gordon]

I wonder how long it will be before the Brexit zealots realise that:

a) Brexit was a bad idea to start with, and an idea was all it was back in 2016.

b) The Maybot and her attempt to manage her party have demonstrated that with a sufficient level of incompetence a bad idea can be easily converted into a shambolic mess.

c) A good idea, in light of the current situation, would be to realise that the game is now up (and is a farce anyway), so A50 should be rescinded and the subject should never ever be raised again.

[Nearly Sane]

Many of those voting leave will simply see this as an attempt to defeat their vote. I don't see that the incompetence of the govt will be anything that convinces them. I would like to remain but I can't see any easy way out of leaving. If we were to revoke, I would expect that we would see the rise of a party to the right of the Tories.

[Gordon]

It would probably be difficult for politicians to go direct to revoke as things stand, where those in favour of revoking would probably prefer that the electorate told them so in a 2nd referendum based, this time, on more than just an idea - and if we ever get to that point then making the outcome binding this time might be a better idea.

One aspect of the current situation is that Brexit has now become toxic and divisive, though I suspect given the history of discontent in the Tory party discontent was unavoidable, and that no matter what happens next the discontent will remain.

[Nearly Sane]

A 2nd referendum has its own problems. I just don't see it as being something likely to go well. I feel we have painted ourselves into a corner which is filled with poisonous snakes.

[Nearly Sane]

Just in case anyone missed it in the other news but Vote Leave withdrew its appeal against its illegal funding fine.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47755611

[Gordon]

Seeing the story this morning regarding Dominic Grieve it seems to me that the Tories have lurched to the right and that people in those areas where support for the Tories is endemic, and where UKIP had a brief flurry during their 15 minutes of fame, have too: and when they talk about 'the country' they mean the bits that they inhabit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/30/dominic-grieve-loses-confidence-vote-held-by-beaconsfield-tories

[Harrowby Hall]

I think that the best solution now would be to revoke Article 50 but follow this up with what David Cameron should have done following the Scottish independence referendum: establish a Royal Commission (or similar) to examine the state and nature and condition of the United Kingdom which includes  recommendations for constitutional arrangements appropriate to the twenty first century. This should include relationships with supranational bodies and a recognition of the need to operate effectively in an increasingly globalised economy.

Among is considerations should be a grown-up parliamentary system and a suitable use for a redundant World Heritage site on the northern bank of the Thames opposite St Thomas' Hospital.

[jeremyp]

Not sure how you figure that... most commentators think that all the options remain on the table unchanged except, possibly, another short extension - that card already having been played once.

Once thing is clear though, whatever the conclusion of the further indicative votes next week: The Tories cannot be trusted with a mere change to the PD, adding a CU say, as May or a new PM could drop it during the implementation period.

Everything except No Deal and Withdraw Article 50 requires us to ask the EU for another extension. As you’d say, another short extension will not fly.

[Gordon]

Gordon Brown's suggestion of a period of public consultation, along the lines that Ireland did, seems worth considering. Most of the 'we should just get out' voxpops I've seen come from areas of the UK that voted Leave and give the impression that the electorate elsewhere (such as here in Scotland) are similarly inclined - we aren't, but we don't get heard as much.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/30/uk-year-extension-brexit-take-back-control

[jeremyp]

Gordon Brown's suggestion of a period of public consultation, along the lines that Ireland did, seems worth considering. Most of the 'we should just get out' voxpops I've seen come from areas of the UK that voted Leave and give the impression that the electorate elsewhere (such as here in Scotland) are similarly inclined - we aren't, but we don't get heard as much.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/30/uk-year-extension-brexit-take-back-control

It suffers from the same problem as all the other “solutions” except no deal and cancel. You need to get EU support to do it.

By the way, please stop propagating the myth that regions voted one way or the other. Regions didn’t vote at all. By claiming they did, you are erasing over a million people in Scotland and thirteen million people in England all of whose votes counted exactly as much as yours did.

[Nearly Sane]

Everything except No Deal and Withdraw Article 50 requires us to ask the EU for another extension. As you’d say, another short extension will not fly.

And asking for a further extension is a choice so when you said there were only 2 choices left you were factually wrong. Perhaps you meant to say there were only 2 choices under our control but you didn't.

[Nearly Sane]

I think that the best solution now would be to revoke Article 50 but follow this up with what David Cameron should have done following the Scottish independence referendum: establish a Royal Commission (or similar) to examine the state and nature and condition of the United Kingdom which includes  recommendations for constitutional arrangements appropriate to the twenty first century. This should include relationships with supranational bodies and a recognition of the need to operate effectively in an increasingly globalised economy.

Among is considerations should be a grown-up parliamentary system and a suitable use for a redundant World Heritage site on the northern bank of the Thames opposite St Thomas' Hospital.

Well, yes, but that choice was in the other side of the room that we just painted ourselves into the corner of with our collection of poisonous snakes.