Brexit - the next steps

[Nearly Sane]

Seeing the story this morning regarding Dominic Grieve it seems to me that the Tories have lurched to the right and that people in those areas where support for the Tories is endemic, and where UKIP had a brief flurry during their 15 minutes of fame, have too: and when they talk about 'the country' they mean the bits that they inhabit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/30/dominic-grieve-loses-confidence-vote-held-by-beaconsfield-tories

It is not Beaconsfield specifically, it is the Tory party in this instance. It is said that this has become such a shibboleth that they would deselect achieve who is a principled honest Tory. It may be may be just that I have a stinking cold but we seem to be in  incredibly dark times. The appearance yesterday of 2 sectarian flute (And they were flute bands not pipe bands, Channel 4) bands - the DUP's present to May in return for the billions - is just depressing. One of them, the Livingston True Blues Flute Band, had posted that they were getting a speech and some food from Tim Martin of  Weatherspoon, and he was only Tim (one of our many slang names for Roman Catholics) they were going to be nice to.

 There has been a lot of talk about the Ulsterisation of Scottish politics in the last couple of years, which for me has generally ignored that certainly on the West of Scotland, it always has been a bit. It would be a great danger though if this were to spread to the Brexit debate.

[bluehillside Retd.]

NS,

You're a cock-eyed optimist. I think it will be incredibly difficult to get a motion through approving s second referendum. EU commission saying No Deal is 'a likely scenario' and I fear that it is possibly the most likely scenario now.

Sorry - missed this before. I think you're right inasmuch as getting approval for a second referendum would be hard (though I think that's what should happen because the first one was so corrupted, and because parliament can't reach a decision of its own) but what's interesting about the permanent customs union option is that some tories who may be sympathetic are saying they can't back it because it wasn't in their manifesto and it's not what the 17m odd voted for. The second bit is bollocks of course - part of the cleverness of the wording of the referendum is that no matter which of the multiple leave options are put forward the proponent will say "and that honours the result of the referendum" as if in some way each can claim that all 17m wanted each possible model. That can't be though - some would be appalled at the idea of leaving the customs union, some would be appalled at retaining it etc.

As for the manifesto part though, maybe that's a way through - pick an option and put it back to the country for a vote on the basis that it wasn't in the manifesto so they'd need a new mandate. Perhaps if parliament skinnied down to, say, May's deal or customs union (both subject to public ratification) and voted on a winner, then the referendum would be:

Remain vs

Parliament choice exit vs

No deal exit 

With first and second choice options.

If any of them got more than 50%, that'd be the winner. If none of them did though, then you'd eliminate the third place one and go with the majority cast for either of the remaining two.   
     

[Harrowby Hall]

It is not Beaconsfield specifically, it is the Tory party in this instance. It is said that this has become such a shibboleth that they would deselect achieve who is a principled honest Tory. It may be may be just that I have a stinking cold but we seem to be in  incredibly dark times.

I don't know whether - due to advancing senility, perhaps - my perceptions are likely to be shared and accurate, but I have the feeling, suspicion, that there are aspects of the world in which Conservatives exist that are not entirely dissimilar to those existing in Germany in the late 1920s/early 1930s. A sharp move to the right and increasing levels of intolerance and even aggression.

Please tell me that i am wrong.

[bluehillside Retd.]

HH,

I don't know whether - due to advancing senility, perhaps - my perceptions are likely to be shared and accurate, but I have the feeling, suspicion, that there are aspects of the world in which Conservatives exist that are not entirely dissimilar to those existing in Germany in the late 1920s/early 1930s. A sharp move to the right and increasing levels of intolerance and even aggression.

Please tell me that i am wrong.

I think it's dangerous to take that too far, but May's disgusting "hostile environment" policy, her "deport and hear appeals afterwards" statement, the Windrush episode etc seem to me to at least be giving licence to the neo-fascists. Same thing in the US by the way with Trump's equivocation about the hard right's actions there. The reason UKIP's traction fell away for a while was that the tories have essentially become UKIP in all but name, so UKIP had to reinvent itself as even more extreme - hence the speeches in Parliament Square yesterday.     

[Nearly Sane]

In reply both to HH, and bhs, I agree that bluehillside's idea has appeal but I also feel HH's sense of dread and hence any such solution will result in some ongoing civil and fucking uncivil unrest. I note that even in an entirely minor thing that trains in St Pancras have been disrupted by some wazzock apparently draped in a St George Cross walking on the rails and then somehow ending up in the roof. As I have mentioned before, where I live I regularly have weekends disrupted by the flute bands with their followers often drunk at 9 in the morning. I fear we might be about to live in a sort of constant Orange walk, and in the end we will all want to be drunk at 9 in the morning.

[Nearly Sane]

Brandon Lewis - The UK Tory party chairman has attacked the Labour party by their vote yesterday for ensuring no Brexit.
Meanwhile the Scottish Tories have attacked the SNP for their votes yesterday for ensuring a No Deal Brexit.


Mmm...

[Udayana]

Everything except No Deal and Withdraw Article 50 requires us to ask the EU for another extension. As you’d say, another short extension will not fly.

I don't think asking the EU27 for a long extension is a problem. The decisions they have made so far have been entirely reasonable, so can be expected to allow an extension if the UK proposes a sensible plan to get to a conclusion. eg. resignation of May and a general election.

[Nearly Sane]

Good blog

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-horror-show-continues.html?m=1

[Nearly Sane]

I don't think asking the EU27 for a long extension is a problem. The decisions they have made so far have been entirely reasonable, so can be expected to allow an extension if the UK proposes a sensible plan to get to a conclusion. eg. resignation of May and a general election.

Less sanguine about this than you. It takes 1 of the 27 to veto, and I can see, and to extent fear that happening. If it were to happen though then I can see an immediate revocation of Article 50.

I also think that a general election and/or May going may not feel enough of a solution for some of the 27, and I think they might be right. Add to that, the need to hold European elections which I suspect will be entirely poisonous, and will be seen as a de facto rerun of the referendum, even though the result will be effectively meaningless.

[bluehillside Retd.]

NS,

Good blog

http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2019/03/the-horror-show-continues.html?m=1

Sure is. Thanks for posting.

[Udayana]

Less sanguine about this than you. It takes 1 of the 27 to veto, and I can see, and to extent fear that happening. If it were to happen though then I can see an immediate revocation of Article 50.

I also think that a general election and/or May going may not feel enough of a solution for some of the 27, and I think they might be right. Add to that, the need to hold European elections which I suspect will be entirely poisonous, and will be seen as a de facto rerun of the referendum, even though the result will be effectively meaningless.

Generally agree, nothing is certain except, of-course, that unless we request an extension there will not be one.

 

[Spud]

Perhaps it would help if the EU refused an extension, thus giving May the option of leave without a deal or revoke. They may be waiting for a sign that she would revoke.

[Spud]

Conversely, staying adamant that she won't revoke would be a good tactic to keep the EU open to extensions.

[Nearly Sane]

Perhaps it would help if the EU refused an extension, thus giving May the option of leave without a deal or revoke. They may be waiting for a sign that she would revoke.

As already covered it doesn't take the EU, it just takes 1 member of the EU and I suspect that if they did then Article 50 would be revoked. It seems more likely to me that would be a parliament decision rather than May.

[Nearly Sane]

Conversely, staying adamant that she won't revoke would be a good tactic to keep the EU open to extensions.

It isn't going to be up to her.

[Gordon]

As already covered it doesn't take the EU, it just takes 1 member of the EU and I suspect that if they did then Article 50 would be revoked. It seems more likely to me that would be a parliament decision rather than May.

I think so too - no deal is bad news for the EU, so by refusing an extension so as to encourage A50 being rescinded presumably protects them from disruption. Of course, if it happens that way the political fallout would extreme both domestically and between the UK and the EU.

There doesn't seem to be an option that isn't a bad option.

[bluehillside Retd.]

Gordon,

There doesn't seem to be an option that isn't a bad option.

There never was. It's notable that even the sunlit uplands liars in chief seem to have reverted more to a "we can salvage something from this, just keep the faith" mode. 

[Nearly Sane]

Gordon,

There never was. It's notable that even the sunlit uplands liars in chief seem to have reverted more to a "we can salvage something from this, just keep the faith" mode.

I think the options have all got worse though because of the way that it has been handled.

[Nearly Sane]

Unfortunately behind a paywall but within my 2 free articles a week, I often read Hugo Rifkind's Saturday column. This is very funny.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/804f18e4-525f-11e9-ab3c-aad12815c817

[Gordon]

Let us hope these two are damaged by this: I'd imagine, in the current climate, they won't be able to hide.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/30/gove-johnson-under-fire-vote-leave-fine-appeal-dropped

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Dominic Grieve.....at last a tory I could follow but alas, apparently one has to be UKIP to be a tory these days.

[Nearly Sane]

Dominic Grieve.....at last a tory I could follow but alas, apparently one has to be UKIP to be a tory these days.

While I think Grieve is an honest and honourable man, would you follow him to vote for disability checks, or voting against climate change legislation? But given that the person leading the campaign for the vote to deselect him stood against him for UKIP, your second point may well be valid, as long as one adds in willing to lie about stuff.

[jeremyp]

I think so too - no deal is bad news for the EU, so by refusing an extension so as to encourage A50 being rescinded presumably protects them from disruption. Of course, if it happens that way the political fallout would extreme both domestically and between the UK and the EU.

There doesn't seem to be an option that isn't a bad option.

Revoke is not a bad option.

[Gordon]

Revoke is not a bad option.

True - though it would be contentious for a while.

[Nearly Sane]

Revoke is not a bad option.

In terms of what you want, or I want, maybe not. In terms of what might happen, yes, it's a shite option. I think it will provoke violence, I think it will lead to the rise of a substantial right wing movement. It may be the least worst option, who knows, but the idea that it isn't going to be bad seems pie in the sky. Watch the stuff outside parliament yesterday and tell me that when that happens to the power of Greyskull, it isn't bad.