Brexit - the next steps

[ippy]

Boris is despicable!

As long as he gets us out of that EU I really don't care a jot.

Regards, ippy.

[Stranger]

As long as he gets us out of that EU I really don't care a jot.

Here we go again with the fundamentalist religious cult mindset. It doesn't matter how many people are hurt, it doesn't matter how much the country and its institutions are damaged, so long as you get something you can't even give a coherent reason why you want.

[Gordon]

Those of you who are customers of NHS England & Wales should be worried, unless these clowns can be stopped before anyone gets hurt (or sick people get sicker).

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/23/matt-the-blank-made-few-friends-when-grilled-over-the-nhs-and-brexit

[Roses]

Our local pharmacy was complaining that some meds are not available at the moment. They said it was a direct result of the anticipation of Brexit.

[Walter]

Our local pharmacy was complaining that some meds are not available at the moment. They said it was a direct result of the anticipation of Brexit.

i was in a barber shop the other day, he blamed his blunt scissors on ...... you've got it !

[Nearly Sane]

Can't see any other position the SNP can reasonably take.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49850484

[Udayana]

Can't see any other position the SNP can reasonably take.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49850484

The opposition parties certainly should come to an agreement as to who should lead. Corbyn could let Jo Swinson have the job - with an agreed cabinet and agenda: extension->deal->referendum->election or similar.

As the leader of the largest party behind the interim government, he could pull the plug if needed?

[Nearly Sane]

The opposition parties certainly should come to an agreement as to who should lead. Corbyn could let Jo Swinson have the job - with an agreed cabinet and agenda: extension->deal->referendum->election or similar.

As the leader of the largest party behind the interim government, he could pull the plug if needed?

Why should the leader of the 3rd largest party be PM though. I think Swinson was right about any such govt being easier with Clarke or Harman - but even if they agree a leader, it's nor clear they can agree on what any such a GNU would do.

[Anchorman]

 Since whichever administration is formed after a putative confidence vote will be temporary, its' only purpose being to seek an extention to article 50 then dissolve at an election, I fail to understand why the Lib Dems are having a hissy fit over this. I have no respect for Corbyn, but if that's what it takes to get the d****d job done, so be it.

[Nearly Sane]

Since whichever administration is formed after a putative confidence vote will be temporary, its' only purpose being to seek an extention to article 50 then dissolve at an election, I fail to understand why the Lib Dems are having a hissy fit over this. I have no respect for Corbyn, but if that's what it takes to get the d****d job done, so be it.

Isn't Labour's position that they negotiate a deal before any election? Not clear that others accept that or think it is possible.

[Udayana]

Since whichever administration is formed after a putative confidence vote will be temporary, its' only purpose being to seek an extention to article 50 then dissolve at an election, I fail to understand why the Lib Dems are having a hissy fit over this. I have no respect for Corbyn, but if that's what it takes to get the d****d job done, so be it.

As the crisis, that the GNU must address, is over brexit, it must resolve brexit. An election cannot do that unless one party gets greater than 52% of the vote.

[Udayana]

Isn't Labour's position that they negotiate a deal before any election? Not clear that others accept that or think it is possible.

They should agree the modified May deal with the EU and put that for ratification (against revoke) in a referendum.

[Nearly Sane]

They should agree the modified May deal with the EU and put that for ratification (against revoke) in a referendum.

Modified in what way?  None of the parties that would be in govt voted for that, and in the case of Labour and the Lib Dems have just voted against it again effectively at their conference. Don't get me wrong I think that they shouldn't even try to modify the deal but pass it and have the referendum as you suggest. That however means the GNU, as you do, will have to stick around while there is the referendum and deal with the rest of political life. And then call an election - note again that order isn't general policy for the parties.  To get it done will need a lot of nose holding.

[Gordon]

According to one commentator, Hugo Dixon, the risk of a GNU following a VoNC is that the convention is that Johnson is supposed to resign if he can't form a government that has the confidence of parliament so as to clear the way for an interim PM - and the risk is that he might refuse to resign. I'd imagine that if he is still the PM he'd have to comply with the Benn Act, but it would no doubt get messy and more legal action might follow.

https://twitter.com/Hugodixon/status/1177581582292586496

One of the lawyers involved in the prorogation case has suggested that "The strategy is, by hook or by crook, to delay the duty in the Benn Act to send an extension letter to the EU for long enough that the timetable for that extension to be agreed is compressed unmanageably."

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1177308131644325888

In effect, even of Johnson complies with the Benn Act and requests an extension the time available is less that 2 weeks and that might be enough to obstruct an extension coming into effect in time. None of this is secret though, so I'd imagine there might be steps taken next week to force the request for extension to be submitted immediately and have it agreed with the EU prior to the mid-October EU meeting on the basis that it could be rescinded by the HoC.

What a mess.

 

[Udayana]

Modified in what way?  None of the parties that would be in govt voted for that, and in the case of Labour and the Lib Dems have just voted against it again effectively at their conference. Don't get me wrong I think that they shouldn't even try to modify the deal but pass it and have the referendum as you suggest. That however means the GNU, as you do, will have to stick around while there is the referendum and deal with the rest of political life. And then call an election - note again that order isn't general policy for the parties.  To get it done will need a lot of nose holding.

As I understand, when May finally allowed discussions with the opposition parties the meetings did result in a modified deal that was never to put to Parliament.

We are in a cesspit - best to hold nose.

[Nearly Sane]

As I understand, when May finally allowed discussions with the opposition parties the meetings did result in a modified deal that was never to put to Parliament.

We are in a cesspit - best to hold nose.

Which is why Swinson as PM isn't a go-er as that is an unbalanced nose holding. I have my doubts about any midified deal as it ism't clear that it is acceptable to the EU or any of the parties, hence it not being tried.

[Nearly Sane]

An aside on Orders In/Of Council that have suddenly become cool.


https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1177551865438986240.html

[bluehillside Retd.]

As I understand it an extension would have to be agreed by all 27 Member States. Does anyone know whether our now hard right Tory party could find a fellow traveller - say Orban in Hungary - and put the fix in to persuade them to vote against? We know that the tories aren't averse to a backhander re the DUP (or more accurately to a front hander as their bung was done in plain sight) so a pay off of some sort in exchange might not be out of the question. 

[Nearly Sane]

There was vague talk of this before and nothing came of it. I suspect that any bribery the Tories might manage pales in comparison to the pull of being 1 v 26, and whatever effect the EU might have.


In addition I think that would strengthen the hand for revocation of the star of the Articles, 50

[jeremyp]

As I understand it an extension would have to be agreed by all 27 Member States. Does anyone know whether our now hard right Tory party could find a fellow traveller - say Orban in Hungary - and put the fix in to persuade them to vote against? We know that the tories aren't averse to a backhander re the DUP (or more accurately to a front hander as their bung was done in plain sight) so a pay off of some sort in exchange might not be out of the question.

The only legal alternative to an extension would be to withdraw article 50.

[Gordon]

If an extension was turned down by the EU the only option, aside from passing May's deal in a hurry, and even then there would be little time to implement it, would be that a majority in the HoC were prepared to vote to revoke rather than let no-deal happen - and I doubt that would be a goer until maybe sometime during the late afternoon or early evening of the 31st October.

I wonder what future political historians will say about the whole Brexit shambles and about how the UK managed to paint itself into all 4 corners of the room at the same time.

[Udayana]

Which is why Swinson as PM isn't a go-er as that is an unbalanced nose holding. I have my doubts about any midified deal as it ism't clear that it is acceptable to the EU or any of the parties, hence it not being tried.

Sadly I doubt that Corbyn would agree to Clarke or Harman as leader, let alone Swinson.

I think a government with Corbyn at the head, relying on the support of the other parties would be too unstable to achieve anything (top heavy and with known splits in Labour)

Also, in fact, the SNP is the third largest party, LibDems fourth.

[Nearly Sane]

Sadly I doubt that Corbyn would agree to Clarke or Harman as leader, let alone Swinson.

I think a government with Corbyn at the head, relying on the support of the other parties would be too unstable to achieve anything (top heavy and with known splits in Labour)

Also, in fact, the SNP is the third largest party, LibDems fourth.

i meant the 3rd largest party in the coalition. I have no idea what you mean be let alone Swinson, since I can't see any reason for Swinson. You might as well say let alone David Gauke.


If Corbyn or Labour should hold their nose, the LDs have no chance of Swinson as PM without looking hypocritical.

[Gordon]

Reading this about the latest discussions, there seems to be no prospect of any revised deal.

Of course the Tory government will continue to pretend there is progress until after their conference next week, in order to avoid upsetting their membership, who still seem gullible enough to think all is well and that a no-deal Brexit should be allowed to happen despite all the information that shows it would be disastrous: though that they still bleat on that 'the people want this done' but refuse to check that this is indeed the case currently suggests they are living in fantasy-land.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/27/no-deal-brexit-fault-uk-government-alone-juncker-eu 

[Udayana]

i meant the 3rd largest party in the coalition. I have no idea what you mean be let alone Swinson, since I can't see any reason for Swinson. You might as well say let alone David Gauke.


If Corbyn or Labour should hold their nose, the LDs have no chance of Swinson as PM without looking hypocritical.

The only way they are going to negotiate an alternate government is to ditch the party positions and put individuals in the posts that will best achieve the agreed limited programme (whatever that is). To get any programme through they will need the support of all remainers, "leave with a deal" leavers and convince the remaining Torys that they would get "no brexit at all" unless a deal is ratified by the chosen method.

LDs already support a referendum before a GE. JC also wants the people to decide on a deal that he puts to them.