Brexit - the next steps

[Nearly Sane]

I can understand the SNP's desire to have an election - polls indicate they could be back over 50 seats, and it would happen before the Salmond cases go to court, add to that the optics of a Tory win,  but not really sure what the LDs get out of it - while they are doing ok in opinion polls they don't currently appear likely to make a breakthrough and a Tory win for them just means Brexit. And playing about with the Fixed Term Parliament Act feels odd for the LDs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50199689

[Nearly Sane]

So flextension to 31/01/20 it is

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50205603

[jeremyp]

So flextension to 31/01/20 it is

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50205603

I wonder what will happen to BJ's support. He's failed on his leadership pledge.

[Nearly Sane]

I wonder what will happen to BJ's support. He's failed on his leadership pledge.

He's been preparing for that by storing up the blame stuff. There hasn't been a move to the Brexit party in the latest polls, and I think getting the 2nd reading of his bill passed has helped him.

[ippy]

Pointing out that I'm not as fanatical as you and that I'm prepared to discuss it and you're not?

I keep on referring to the fact that we're never going to agree, unless one of us capitulated and joined one or the other sides, clay pigeon season, it'd be much better to discuss once we've left the EU and when were you appointed to decide who's a fanatic and who isn't.

Regards, ippy.

[ippy]

If only you'd put up anything half so substantial as a windmill.

I did say a bit and why not save this kind of discussion for after we've left the EU.

Regards, ippy.

[Roses]

The EU has agreed that the UK can stay in the EU until the January 31st, if necessary. Hopefully there will be another referendum and sense will prevail ditching Brexit.

[Stranger]

I keep on referring to the fact that we're never going to agree, unless one of us capitulated and joined one or the other sides...

So you keep saying but this is only true if neither side is open reasoning and evidence or if one side point blank refuses to give any coherent arguments, like you're doing.

...and when were you appointed to decide who's a fanatic and who isn't.

You said you'd "I'll almost go with the devil" and you've pretty much indicated leaving the EU overrides all other political choices for you and you seem indifferent to the risks of no-deal. By contrast, I want to remain but I'm not prepared to pay any price to do so - it doesn't override all other considerations.

[ippy]

So you keep saying but this is only true if neither side is open reasoning and evidence or if one side point blank refuses to give any coherent arguments, like you're doing.

You said you'd "I'll almost go with the devil" and you've pretty much indicated leaving the EU overrides all other political choices for you and you seem indifferent to the risks of no-deal. By contrast, I want to remain but I'm not prepared to pay any price to do so - it doesn't override all other considerations.

Like I said.

Regards, ippy.

[Nearly Sane]

No pigs in blankets!!!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50205951

[Roses]

No pigs in blankets!!!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50205951

I saw that on the news website a minute ago. I LIKE PIGS IN BLANKETS, BREXIT CAN'T GO AHEAD!

[Nearly Sane]

The Remain sides in 'perfect unity'


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50206253

[Udayana]

Udayana,

The problem with that though is that you have no idea whether “around half the voters” would have voted for the Johnson deal rather than to remain. And the reason you don’t know that is that no-one – literally no-one – was asked to choose between the two. It doesn’t seem much of a stretch to suggest that some at least of the 17.4m leave voters would have voted remain instead of for that deal had the choice been put to them, and as the “win” was so tight being asked that question could well produce a different outcome.

Johnson, Cummings et al are terrified as of asking that though because they fear the answer (so much for democracy eh?), which is why they’d rather die in a ditch than agree to a second referendum…

…”die in a ditch”? Oh, hang on though…

It would be interesting to see what happens in a Remain vs Boris Deal ref. but the chances of that seem to be receding. In any case, many cold argue that such a choice doesn't take into account their views: eg no deal, softer brexit and so on.

[Udayana]

I can understand the SNP's desire to have an election - polls indicate they could be back over 50 seats, and it would happen before the Salmond cases go to court, add to that the optics of a Tory win,  but not really sure what the LDs get out of it - while they are doing ok in opinion polls they don't currently appear likely to make a breakthrough and a Tory win for them just means Brexit. And playing about with the Fixed Term Parliament Act feels odd for the LDs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50199689

Maybe they have just calculated that it is worth trying to increase their numbers (at the expense of both Lab and Con) given that brexit itself is mostly deadlocked - and still likely to be after a GE?

[Nearly Sane]

Maybe they have just calculated that it is worth trying to increase their numbers (at the expense of both Lab and Con) given that brexit itself is mostly deadlocked - and still likely to be after a GE?

The problem is that current polling is indicating a fairly easy Tory victory, so that even with an increase in seats for each party, Brexit becomes more likely. Now on a  specific impact for the SNP and independence, I can see why they might go for it but it seems likely to remove the possibility of staying in EU so don't see what the LDs achieve on current figures.

[Nearly Sane]

Meanwhile apparently no Shadow Cabinet minister is willing to talk to meeting of the PLP tonight.

[Udayana]

The problem is that current polling is indicating a fairly easy Tory victory, so that even with an increase in seats for each party, Brexit becomes more likely. Now on a  specific impact for the SNP and independence, I can see why they might go for it but it seems likely to remove the possibility of staying in EU so don't see what the LDs achieve on current figures.

Polls can be, and recently have been, misleading. In any case, they can't stop brexit from their current position and won't make a pact with Labour. They seem to have decided they only want no-brexit, nothing else, whereas Labour would settle for a softer one.   

Ie. If brexit is going to happen anyway, better concentrate on building up their MP numbers. What are the alternatives if there is no election? Only a 2nd referendum - which would depend on scrutiny of the WAB and another extension.

[Udayana]

Meanwhile apparently no Shadow Cabinet minister is willing to talk to meeting of the PLP tonight.

Seems they are having a bit of a spat.

[Nearly Sane]

Polls can be, and recently have been, misleading. In any case, they can't stop brexit from their current position and won't make a pact with Labour. They seem to have decided they only want no-brexit, nothing else, whereas Labour would settle for a softer one.   

Ie. If brexit is going to happen anyway, better concentrate on building up their MP numbers. What are the alternatives if there is no election? Only a 2nd referendum - which would depend on scrutiny of the WAB and another extension.

Polls can change, they haven't in general been that misleading. Building up your MPs at the cost of Brexit which you are meant to be opposing while given Johnson the election he wants seems merely tribal and counterproductive.

[Nearly Sane]

Seems they are having a bit of a spat.

This may well be part of the LDs calculation on the other part of the thread we are discussing. Perhaps they think Labour is incapable of fighting an election and they will get a surge from that. It does make clear though that we may well be in post Brexit Britain in terms of the thoughts of the parties.

They also may just have got to the end of their patience

[Aruntraveller]

Unforeseen consequences of Brexit - Part 4,352

https://tinyurl.com/pigsblanket

[Roses]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50215983

Brexit 50p coins being recycled because of the delay, what a waste of money!

[Nearly Sane]

The current maundering about a date, while effectively overturning the FTPA is managing to lower my world record limbo bar expectations of the political process. No one is coming out of this well.

[ProfessorDavey]

The current maundering about a date, while effectively overturning the FTPA is managing to lower my world record limbo bar expectations of the political process. No one is coming out of this well.

I'm struggling to understand the significance of the date - is it to prevent any possibility of the Brexit WA being passed before parliament is dissolved?

Also I'm struggling with the notion of a one line act, which is effectively simply a mechanism to get around the law as defined in the FTPA. I can see that you can properly amend an existing Act, or that you can repeal it, but this is neither - it is a one off temporary mechanism to get around the law. Effectively Parliament and the Government (who are bound by the law, although they can alter the law) look to be giving themselves the option of breaking the law. Bit like if parliament passed a bill to say that although stealing is unlawful that tomorrow Boris Johnson can steal your car!

Part of me wonders whether, were the one line act to be passed, it will be challenged in the courts in which case all hell might break loose.

[Nearly Sane]

I'm struggling to understand the significance of the date - is it to prevent any possibility of the Brexit WA being passed before parliament is dissolved?

Also I'm struggling with the notion of a one line act, which is effectively simply a mechanism to get around the law as defined in the FTPA. I can see that you can properly amend an existing Act, or that you can repeal it, but this is neither - it is a one off temporary mechanism to get around the law. Effectively Parliament and the Government (who are bound by the law, although they can alter the law) look to be giving themselves the option of breaking the law. Bit like if parliament passed a bill to say that although stealing is unlawful that tomorrow Boris Johnson can steal your car!

Part of me wonders whether, were the one line act to be passed, it will be challenged in the courts in which case all hell might break loose.

My understanding about the date was that it removed the WAB from the table, and that the attempt yesterday didn't actually specify a date, but yep I am with you in the rest of your confusion. Anyhoo Labour now backing December election!