Growth of world population in last 2000 years

[ekim]

Given how things are going, possibly yes. If a perfect storm forms in the shape of lack of food, lack of water, lack of usable land, wars, revolutions or conflicts, then the toll could be extremely heavy.

Let's hope it doesn't become like Calhoun's rats:
" Using a variety of strains of rats and mice, he once more provided his populations with food, bedding, and shelter. With no predators and with exposure to disease kept at a minimum, Calhoun described his experimental universes as "rat utopia," "mouse paradise." With all their visible needs met, the animals bred rapidly. The only restriction Calhoun imposed on his population was of space--and as the population grew, this became increasingly problematic. As the pens heaved with animals, one of his assistants described rodent "utopia" as having become "hell."
Males became aggressive, some moving in groups, attacking females and the young. Mating behaviors were disrupted. Some males became exclusively homosexual. Others became pansexual and hypersexual, attempting to mount any rat they encountered. Mothers neglected their infants, first failing to construct proper nests, and then carelessly abandoning and even attacking their pups. In certain sections of the pens, infant mortality rose as high as 96%, the dead cannibalized by adults. Subordinate animals withdrew psychologically, surviving in a physical sense but at an immense psychological cost. They were the majority in the late phases of growth, existing as a vacant, huddled mass in the centre of the pens (with their mobile phones,Twitter accounts and virtual reality goggles  ). Unable to breed, the population plummeted and did not recover. The crowded rodents had lost the ability to co-exist harmoniously, even after the population numbers once again fell to low levels. At a certain density, they had ceased to act like rats and mice, and the change was permanent. "

[torridon]

Let's hope it doesn't become like Calhoun's rats:
" Using a variety of strains of rats and mice, he once more provided his populations with food, bedding, and shelter. With no predators and with exposure to disease kept at a minimum, Calhoun described his experimental universes as "rat utopia," "mouse paradise." With all their visible needs met, the animals bred rapidly. The only restriction Calhoun imposed on his population was of space--and as the population grew, this became increasingly problematic. As the pens heaved with animals, one of his assistants described rodent "utopia" as having become "hell."
Males became aggressive, some moving in groups, attacking females and the young. Mating behaviors were disrupted. Some males became exclusively homosexual. Others became pansexual and hypersexual, attempting to mount any rat they encountered. Mothers neglected their infants, first failing to construct proper nests, and then carelessly abandoning and even attacking their pups. In certain sections of the pens, infant mortality rose as high as 96%, the dead cannibalized by adults. Subordinate animals withdrew psychologically, surviving in a physical sense but at an immense psychological cost. They were the majority in the late phases of growth, existing as a vacant, huddled mass in the centre of the pens (with their mobile phones,Twitter accounts and virtual reality goggles  ). Unable to breed, the population plummeted and did not recover. The crowded rodents had lost the ability to co-exist harmoniously, even after the population numbers once again fell to low levels. At a certain density, they had ceased to act like rats and mice, and the change was permanent. "

Yes; the worldwide fall in human fertility might be analogous to this experiment; living in high stress overcrowded overpolluted cities with bad diet and poor exercise is a direct consequence of our success as a species but those conditions are not those from which our success was conceived, hence we suffer health problems. and falling fertility. We evolved to prosper in hunter gatherer groups of maybe 30 to 150 people, our physiology and mental outlook are optimised to that scenario and we are still like that; we cannot change ourselves through technology in any short or medium term. Despite never ending breakthroughs in medical science I think the future looks set to get steadily worse, not better, for most people.

[Sriram]

Let's hope it doesn't become like Calhoun's rats:
" Using a variety of strains of rats and mice, he once more provided his populations with food, bedding, and shelter. With no predators and with exposure to disease kept at a minimum, Calhoun described his experimental universes as "rat utopia," "mouse paradise." With all their visible needs met, the animals bred rapidly. The only restriction Calhoun imposed on his population was of space--and as the population grew, this became increasingly problematic. As the pens heaved with animals, one of his assistants described rodent "utopia" as having become "hell."
Males became aggressive, some moving in groups, attacking females and the young. Mating behaviors were disrupted. Some males became exclusively homosexual. Others became pansexual and hypersexual, attempting to mount any rat they encountered. Mothers neglected their infants, first failing to construct proper nests, and then carelessly abandoning and even attacking their pups. In certain sections of the pens, infant mortality rose as high as 96%, the dead cannibalized by adults. Subordinate animals withdrew psychologically, surviving in a physical sense but at an immense psychological cost. They were the majority in the late phases of growth, existing as a vacant, huddled mass in the centre of the pens (with their mobile phones,Twitter accounts and virtual reality goggles  ). Unable to breed, the population plummeted and did not recover. The crowded rodents had lost the ability to co-exist harmoniously, even after the population numbers once again fell to low levels. At a certain density, they had ceased to act like rats and mice, and the change was permanent. "

Maybe we will not meet exactly the same fate as the rats....but we can see at least some symptoms of the 'rat hell' already. 

In humans I think the feeling of 'not belonging' and alienation can be more powerful factors than just overpopulation.   An easy life with minimum physical activity can also contribute to significant mental disturbance.

[ekim]

Yes; the worldwide fall in human fertility might be analogous to this experiment; living in high stress overcrowded overpolluted cities with bad diet and poor exercise is a direct consequence of our success as a species but those conditions are not those from which our success was conceived, hence we suffer health problems. and falling fertility. We evolved to prosper in hunter gatherer groups of maybe 30 to 150 people, our physiology and mental outlook are optimised to that scenario and we are still like that; we cannot change ourselves through technology in any short or medium term. Despite never ending breakthroughs in medical science I think the future looks set to get steadily worse, not better, for most people.

Yes, I remember a UN Population Fund report a few years ago which contained the following:
"Urban populations are set to double in African and Asian cities over the next 30 years, warns UNFPA.   This will add 1.7 billion people to those cities, more than the populations of China and the US combined, it says.  This growth threatens the world with disaster, unless politicians undertake a radical rethink, the report says. The report, entitled The State of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth, says every week the number of people living in cities in Africa and Asia increases by approximately one million.  And by 2030 the UN Population Fund says the number of city inhabitants will be over five billion, or 60% of world population.
To cope, the UN says, politicians have to stop trying to prevent people moving to cities Urbanisation is inevitable and a good thing, it adds. "What happens in the cities of Africa and Asia and other regions will shape our common future," says UNFPA Executive Director Thoraya Ahmed Obaid. "We must abandon a mindset that resists urbanisation and act now to begin a concerted global effort to help cities unleash their potential to spur economic growth and solve social problems."  According to the report, this wave of growth in urban living is without precedent.  And while the megacities (more than 10 million people) of the world will continue to grow, the majority of the population growth will be in urban areas of 500,000 people or fewer. Without adequate planning, the report says this growth in urban living will create huge slums, degrade the environment and radicalise the young. "

[Jack Knave]

Let's hope it doesn't become like Calhoun's rats:
" Using a variety of strains of rats and mice, he once more provided his populations with food, bedding, and shelter. With no predators and with exposure to disease kept at a minimum, Calhoun described his experimental universes as "rat utopia," "mouse paradise." With all their visible needs met, the animals bred rapidly. The only restriction Calhoun imposed on his population was of space--and as the population grew, this became increasingly problematic. As the pens heaved with animals, one of his assistants described rodent "utopia" as having become "hell."
Males became aggressive, some moving in groups, attacking females and the young. Mating behaviors were disrupted. Some males became exclusively homosexual. Others became pansexual and hypersexual, attempting to mount any rat they encountered. Mothers neglected their infants, first failing to construct proper nests, and then carelessly abandoning and even attacking their pups. In certain sections of the pens, infant mortality rose as high as 96%, the dead cannibalized by adults. Subordinate animals withdrew psychologically, surviving in a physical sense but at an immense psychological cost. They were the majority in the late phases of growth, existing as a vacant, huddled mass in the centre of the pens (with their mobile phones,Twitter accounts and virtual reality goggles  ). Unable to breed, the population plummeted and did not recover. The crowded rodents had lost the ability to co-exist harmoniously, even after the population numbers once again fell to low levels. At a certain density, they had ceased to act like rats and mice, and the change was permanent. "

I know about Calhoun's experiment. Every time I read it it really hits home about what is going on with mankind. And the last concluding bit is a real dystopian picture.

The bit that says, "Subordinate animals withdrew psychologically, surviving in a physical sense but at an immense psychological cost. They were the majority in the late phases of growth, existing as a vacant, huddled mass in the centre of the pens." Brings to mind that the poor never start (or rarely) revolutions because they are in this state where all they are doing is struggling to survive another day. Their minds have been befuddled, and the power of be know this and seek to grind the masses to this point - this is what Neo-Liberalism is doing. The rich elites seek to further this with things like TTIP which would grind the people down by excoriating the nature states to their will.

One of the effects of the slave trade was that black slaves on the plantations etc. stopped breeding as they saw it as being inhumanly cruel to bring a child into such a life.

[jeremyp]

The 11 billion bit is predicted to flatten due to widespread contraception, abortion as developing nations follow the previous path of developed nations. I take it with a pinch of salt, as I struggle to see why advances in medicine won't continue. There is also the question of an age demographic if there is flatlining due to lower numbers of births.

Because as societies become more affluent and more educated, women have fewer children. Once the birthrate drops to two children per woman, the only thing that can keep the population growing is increasing life expectancy. I am assuming that demographers have predicted the flattening out based on the current birth rate trend and the current life expectancy trend. As you video points out, if they get it even slightly wrong, the results can vary enormously.

[jeremyp]

Yes; the worldwide fall in human fertility might be analogous to this experiment; living in high stress overcrowded overpolluted cities with bad diet and poor exercise is a direct consequence of our success as a species but those conditions are not those from which our success was conceived, hence we suffer health problems. and falling fertility. We evolved to prosper in hunter gatherer groups of maybe 30 to 150 people, our physiology and mental outlook are optimised to that scenario and we are still like that; we cannot change ourselves through technology in any short or medium term. Despite never ending breakthroughs in medical science I think the future looks set to get steadily worse, not better, for most people.

Living in cities is not bad for humans on average compared to the alternative for most of us which is back breaking labour in an agricultural setting where the wrong kind of weather will starve you to death.

The rat experiment is interesting but humans are vastly more intelligent than rats. The most densely populated parts of the world are actually less violent and "dystopian" than they were say two hundred years ago.

[Udayana]

Let's hope it doesn't become like Calhoun's rats:
" Using a variety of strains of rats and mice, ... "

Well, we are not rats and are far from those '60s anthropomorphic comparisons and doom-laden projections.

More people are far "better off" than people have been in the past. That is why the birth rate drops - the ideal two or so children that people want are likely to survive, so why keep producing more?

Of-course there are plenty, especially in the wealthy west, who long for the economic slumps and depressions of the past, and seem determined to bring them back so they can act out their fantasies of fighting for survival in a zombie filled apocalypse.

[ekim]

More people are far "better off" than people have been in the past. That is why the birth rate drops - the ideal two or so children that people want are likely to survive, so why keep producing more?

.... and yet the birth rate isn't dropping on the planet.  There are approximately 380,000 births  per day and 150,000 deaths.  When it comes to the sex drive, logic doesn't always hold sway.  However, China adopted a 1 child per couple policy which seemed to have had an effect but it resulted in a disproportionate percentage of people over working age needing support and so a 2 child policy has being introduced, but because of social and economic pressures, apparently couples are not applying, which could eventually lead to a quarter of China's population being over working age.

[Udayana]

Ekim,

I found this article quite informative: Population Bomb? So Wrong

It is true that the total population may continue to grow as life expectancy increases, and we will need to find ways of working with aged populations. Hopefully we will be able to address and solve these issues with logic and rational policies for world trade, immigration and education. 

However we do live in a china shop and will suffer badly if the bulls of climate change and war are not kept well in hand.

[Walter]

Ekim,

I found this article quite informative: Population Bomb? So Wrong

It is true that the total population may continue to grow as life expectancy increases, and we will need to find ways of working with aged populations. Hopefully we will be able to address and solve these issues with logic and rational policies for world trade, immigration and education. 

However we do live in a china shop and will suffer badly if the bulls of climate change and war are not kept well in hand.

what we need to do is build cannons. the world is overrun with fodder

[Jack Knave]

Let's hope it doesn't become like Calhoun's rats:
" Using a variety of strains of rats and mice, he once more provided his populations with food, bedding, and shelter. With no predators and with exposure to disease kept at a minimum, Calhoun described his experimental universes as "rat utopia," "mouse paradise." With all their visible needs met, the animals bred rapidly. The only restriction Calhoun imposed on his population was of space--and as the population grew, this became increasingly problematic. As the pens heaved with animals, one of his assistants described rodent "utopia" as having become "hell."
Males became aggressive, some moving in groups, attacking females and the young. Mating behaviors were disrupted. Some males became exclusively homosexual. Others became pansexual and hypersexual, attempting to mount any rat they encountered. Mothers neglected their infants, first failing to construct proper nests, and then carelessly abandoning and even attacking their pups. In certain sections of the pens, infant mortality rose as high as 96%, the dead cannibalized by adults. Subordinate animals withdrew psychologically, surviving in a physical sense but at an immense psychological cost. They were the majority in the late phases of growth, existing as a vacant, huddled mass in the centre of the pens (with their mobile phones,Twitter accounts and virtual reality goggles  ). Unable to breed, the population plummeted and did not recover. The crowded rodents had lost the ability to co-exist harmoniously, even after the population numbers once again fell to low levels. At a certain density, they had ceased to act like rats and mice, and the change was permanent. "

Something else I've noticed here in the last line. Even for rats the instincts weren't strong enough to kit start them back to normal. Seems the upbringing and environment affects their futures in a similar way it affects humans - once 'down' it is hard to get back 'up' again. That then links back to NS's thread on Animal Minds.

[Jack Knave]

Living in cities is not bad for humans on average compared to the alternative for most of us which is back breaking labour in an agricultural setting where the wrong kind of weather will starve you to death.

The rat experiment is interesting but humans are vastly more intelligent than rats. The most densely populated parts of the world are actually less violent and "dystopian" than they were say two hundred years ago.

Once resources start to be scarce that'll change.

[Jack Knave]

I have another idea as to why advance nations have smaller families. Their wealth allows them to keep their 'toys' in adulthood so making them more neoteric. Why would you burden yourselves with lots of kids if you could keep on 'playing' and partying?

[Sriram]

I have another idea as to why advance nations have smaller families. Their wealth allows them to keep their 'toys' in adulthood so making them more neoteric. Why would you burden yourselves with lots of kids if you could keep on 'playing' and partying?

Actually, many rich families in the US have huge families with four to five kids (especially orthodox Christians). So..I don't think there is a direct link between wealth and number of children. I think it is more to do with beliefs. 

People who are more religious and conservative would have more children regardless of wealth. People who are more materialistic would have less or no children because they are more concerned about their immediate comforts.   

Humans need only religion or some form of spiritual belief for them to be happy and comfortable regardless of the over population or the living conditions. I have seen many people living in  miserable and overcrowded conditions but very cheerful and happy with themselves. They usually have deep faith in God and in destiny.  They treat life as just a journey and don't take their living conditions too seriously. They treat it as a temporary problem to be tolerated cheerfully.  Most of them are happy with whatever falls to their lot. 

[ekim]

I have another idea as to why advance nations have smaller families. Their wealth allows them to keep their 'toys' in adulthood so making them more neoteric. Why would you burden yourselves with lots of kids if you could keep on 'playing' and partying?

Judging by the growth in domestic pets, perhaps some are happy with surrogate babies, which has its own impact on global ecology.

[Jack Knave]

Actually, many rich families in the US have huge families with four to five kids (especially orthodox Christians). So..I don't think there is a direct link between wealth and number of children. I think it is more to do with beliefs. 

People who are more religious and conservative would have more children regardless of wealth. People who are more materialistic would have less or no children because they are more concerned about their immediate comforts.   

Humans need only religion or some form of spiritual belief for them to be happy and comfortable regardless of the over population or the living conditions. I have seen many people living in  miserable and overcrowded conditions but very cheerful and happy with themselves. They usually have deep faith in God and in destiny.  They treat life as just a journey and don't take their living conditions too seriously. They treat it as a temporary problem to be tolerated cheerfully.  Most of them are happy with whatever falls to their lot.

OK. I won't argue with that. They have their 'toy' in their religion which actually supplements their urge to procreate.

I have another idea to add to my last one which relates to the role that religion plays in peoples' lives. One thing that religion provides which people need is a sense of belonging; a tribe or clan that produces a safe environment. Modern life and our civilization tends to foster an individual attitude that has caused a dysfunction in our society's cohesion, and it is this that dampens the ardour to procreate due a sense of apathy. We see a similar thing with animals in zoos who won't bred.

[Sriram]

OK. I won't argue with that. They have their 'toy' in their religion which actually supplements their urge to procreate.

I have another idea to add to my last one which relates to the role that religion plays in peoples' lives. One thing that religion provides which people need is a sense of belonging; a tribe or clan that produces a safe environment. Modern life and our civilization tends to foster an individual attitude that has caused a dysfunction in our society's cohesion, and it is this that dampens the ardour to procreate due a sense of apathy. We see a similar thing with animals in zoos who won't bred.

Yes...there are several positive aspects to religious belief.

1. It instills a sense of peace and contentment, regardless of circumstances.

2. It instills a feeling of belonging and kinship.

3. It helps in stabilizing marriage and in procreation.


Materialism on the other hand breeds discontent, egocentricism and a sense of entitlement. This leads to competitiveness and a feeling of inequality. 

[Walter]

Yes...there are several positive aspects to religious belief.

1. It instills a sense of peace and contentment, regardless of circumstances.

2. It instills a feeling of belonging and kinship.

3. It helps in stabilizing marriage and in procreation.


Materialism on the other hand breeds discontent, egocentricism and a sense of entitlement. This leads to competitiveness and a feeling of inequality.

very droll
you should be on  MOCK THE WEEK

[Jack Knave]

Yes...there are several positive aspects to religious belief.

1. It instills a sense of peace and contentment, regardless of circumstances.

2. It instills a feeling of belonging and kinship.

3. It helps in stabilizing marriage and in procreation.


Materialism on the other hand breeds discontent, egocentricism and a sense of entitlement. This leads to competitiveness and a feeling of inequality.

Some like to be cattle and others don't.

[Jack Knave]

very droll
you should be on  MOCK THE WEEK

Or do you mean Mock The Weak?

[jeremyp]

.... and yet the birth rate isn't dropping on the planet.  There are approximately 380,000 births  per day and 150,000 deaths.

The birth rate is dropping. Anyway, it doesn't need to. At some point in the 22nd century, the death rate will catch up and then the population will stabilise - or crash.

When it comes to the sex drive, logic doesn't always hold sway.  However, China adopted a 1 child per couple policy which seemed to have had an effect but it resulted in a disproportionate percentage of people over working age needing support and so a 2 child policy has being introduced, but because of social and economic pressures, apparently couples are not applying, which could eventually lead to a quarter of China's population being over working age.

That's actually not really important. It seems that as populations get richer and more educated, the birth rate drops naturally.

[jeremyp]

Yes...there are several positive aspects to religious belief.

1. It instills a sense of peace and contentment, regardless of circumstances.

Really?

Heard of suicide bombers?

2. It instills a feeling of belonging and kinship.

3. It helps in stabilizing marriage and in procreation.

There's this myth that staying married is always for the best, but people change and they fall out of love. What is the point of making yourself miserable in a marriage that is dead?

Materialism on the other hand breeds discontent, egocentricism and a sense of entitlement. This leads to competitiveness and a feeling of inequality.

Like all those Christians and Muslims who feel entitled to tell the rest of us what we can and cannot do?

[Walter]

Or do you mean Mock The Weak?

nice