Author Topic: Being upbeat about Brexit.  (Read 42041 times)

Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #50 on: November 27, 2016, 08:28:50 PM »
Given that the point was comparing brexit and religiosity and that most of the world doesn't give a damn about brexit then I think there was a clear assumption that we were talking about the UK.

But nonetheless if we want to talk about the world, then fine, and you are still wrong. It is of course very difficult to assess trends in religiosity world-wide but the most respected longitudinal study - the Gallup Global Index on Religiosity and Atheism - shows that the proportion of people saying they are religious worldwide is declining - down 9% over a 7 year period to the last survey in 2012 - with balancing increases in the proportion saying they aren't religious and are atheist.

So then let me get this straight......You support Jack's argumentum ad populum regarding religion but not the one regarding Brexit.

jeremyp

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #51 on: November 28, 2016, 12:51:37 AM »
Dear Prof,

All very nice and Dandy but the question still remains ( has done for a number of years ) what are you replacing theism with?

Gonnagle.

This is the so called God shaped hole that some theists think is an argument to keep theism. Why do you need to replace theism with anything? Woulds you replace a brain tumour with anything? No.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #52 on: November 28, 2016, 07:51:26 AM »
So then let me get this straight......You support Jack's argumentum ad populum regarding religion but not the one regarding Brexit.
Who made any comment regarding argumentum ad populum? Certainly not me.

All I was doing was to point out that with regard to demographics both brexit and religiosity are in the same boat in relation to direction of travel - both downward in terms of support as each are predominantly the position of those who are elderly, while those who are young are predominately against brexit and (in the UK) overwhelmingly non religious. And that direction of travel is the same for religion worldwide on the basis of the proportion of people self identifying as religious, non religious and atheist.

None of this provides any claim about the correctness of either position (brexit or religion), in other words an argumentum ad populum - and indeed direction of travel of opinion rather than a snap-shot of majority (or otherwise) of opinion wouldn't any how.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #53 on: November 28, 2016, 07:53:13 AM »
This is the so called God shaped hole that some theists think is an argument to keep theism. Why do you need to replace theism with anything? Woulds you replace a brain tumour with anything? No.
Actually there is a very close correlation (with some notable outliers) between religiosity of countries and lack of freedoms, human rights, democracy etc. So perhaps we have replaced religion with the fundamental freedoms of a democratic society.

Gonnagle

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #54 on: November 28, 2016, 09:26:45 AM »
Dear Jeremyp and ProfDavey,

The hole that needs filling, where do we start, what about this country and then we might look further afield.

Church of England, how would you fill that hole? And before anyone answers, please think very carefully about what that encompasses, you can start at the top and work your way down ( Her Majesty ).

The Sally Ann, how do you fill that hole?

Barnado's, how do you fill that hole, and please remember that our own government uses that charity for help and advice, actually when I think about it, this country would be in a very poor state if we didn't have the likes of the CoE, CoS, Sally Ann, Barnado's.

Remembrance day, how do you fill that hole?

Easter and Christmas, okay granted, commercialism is doing a very nice job of filling in that hole >:(  :(

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25465210

Is it your hope that one day all the above in the link will just be tourist attractions.

Then we need to consider our kids education, and no I am not talking about the three R's, morality, ethics, compassion, these are far more important than the three R's, and please don't say these are subjects that should be taught at home, in this disjointed country of one parent families or Mom and Dad out working all hours.

We need schools to be molding our kids to be fine up standing citizens, Love Thy Neighbour should be tattooed onto their foreheads, ( figuratively speaking ) I don't see any push in education for this, what I do see is a race to the bottom, how do we make educating our kids cheaper or the X factor I am all right society.

Gentlemen, you have a massive hole to fill and I have never ever heard any constructive comments on how you go about this on this forum.

Gonnagle.

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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #55 on: November 28, 2016, 10:36:55 AM »
Dear Jeremyp and ProfDavey,

The hole that needs filling, where do we start, what about this country and then we might look further afield.

Church of England, how would you fill that hole? And before anyone answers, please think very carefully about what that encompasses, you can start at the top and work your way down ( Her Majesty ).
There are plenty of people, including I gather a majority of Christians, who support disestablishment. So I don't see why this would be a problem at all - indeed it would solve a major anomaly in our equalities view of freedom of religion, in that it would allow the head of state to be of whatever religion (or of no religion) aligned with their own conscience.

The Sally Ann, how do you fill that hole?

Barnado's, how do you fill that hole, and please remember that our own government uses that charity for help and advice, actually when I think about it, this country would be in a very poor state if we didn't have the likes of the CoE, CoS, Sally Ann, Barnado's.
For every religious charity there are many more non religious ones working in the same area. Indeed the major charities in pretty well every charitable area (except religion itself) are non religious. You do understand that something like 90% of all charities in the UK are non-religious. So there isn't really a big hole to fill is there.

And on voluntary work - studies have indicated that non religious people are just as likely to be involved in formal and informal volunteering as religious people. Also charitable giving outside of direct contributions to a church are the same or greater from the non religious population than the religious population.

Remembrance day, how do you fill that hole?
Remembrance day started and has always been fundamentally a non religious commemoration, albeit religions have muscled in. You will note that the cenotaph, the site of our main remembrance event, is not in the shape of a cross and I gather was deliberately designed to avoid any overt religious symbolism to align with the primary non religious origins of the commemoration. So no hole to fill there either.

Easter and Christmas, okay granted, commercialism is doing a very nice job of filling in that hole >:(  :(
Well actually for many people the prime focus of Christmas is neither religious nor commercial, but to mark mid winter and to share time with those closest to us, our family and close friends.

And, of course, both festivals have origins in paganism that pre-date the Christian festivals (in one case they never even bothered to change its name from that associated with a pagan goddess).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25465210

Is it your hope that one day all the above in the link will just be tourist attractions.
No hole here either, as effectively virtually all the examples are already fundamentally tourist attractions and markers of our cultural heritage. There is very little actual religious worship going on at most of them - and the numbers of worshipers is tiny compared to the numbers of tourists or visitors interested in the cultural history.

Then we need to consider our kids education, and no I am not talking about the three R's, morality, ethics, compassion, these are far more important than the three R's, and please don't say these are subjects that should be taught at home, in this disjointed country of one parent families or Mom and Dad out working all hours.

We need schools to be molding our kids to be fine up standing citizens, Love Thy Neighbour should be tattooed onto their foreheads, ( figuratively speaking ) I don't see any push in education for this, what I do see is a race to the bottom, how do we make educating our kids cheaper or the X factor I am all right society.
Sure the moral and ethical future of society is important, but whether this is better or worse than decades ago is debatable - certainly the young people I know are pretty well hard-wired against racism, sexism homophobia etc in a way that was unthinkable when I was a teenager when casual (and not so casual) racism, sexism and homophobia was rife.

But I don't see what this has to do with religion - you do understand that religion doesn't have a monopoly on ethics, and that non religious society including our non faith schools are as committed to developing 'fine up standing citizens' as religions and faith schools. So no hole here either.

Gentlemen, you have a massive hole to fill and I have never ever heard any constructive comments on how you go about this on this forum.

Gonnagle.
Nope every one nailed - no holes to fill.

Actually if I am honest were religion to vanish overnight, there would, of course, be a significant realignment in society simply because religion currently does exist and is important to a small minority of people in the UK. But this isn't really what I am talking about - rather I am talking about a continuation of the decline in religiosity in the UK that we have seen over the past 50 years or so. The rate of that decline means that society constantly adapts to a dwindling in the numbers of people who are actively religious and see religion as important. So society is well able to gently fill in the 'holes', as you wish to call them, as fewer people see religion as important.

Gonnagle

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #56 on: November 28, 2016, 11:26:56 AM »
Dear Prof,

Nope, you think you nailed it, but what I see in your post is a brush over of all the topics I mentioned, for instance, Remembrance day or another name it is called, Remembrance Sunday, why is it conducted on a day culturally linked to worship, where are the services held.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgBCT-6AoZE

Quote
Abide with me, fast falls the eventide
The darkness deepens Lord, with me abide
When other helpers fail and comforts flee
Help of the helpless, oh, abide with me

Swift to its close ebbs out life's little day
Earth's joys grow dim, its glories pass away
Change and decay in all around I see
O Thou who changest not, abide with me

I fear no foe, with Thee at hand to bless
Ills have no weight, and tears no bitterness
Where is death's sting?
Where, grave, thy victory?
I triumph still, if Thou abide with me

Hold Thou Thy cross before my closing eyes
Shine through the gloom and point me to the skies
Heaven's morning breaks, and earth's vain shadows flee
In life, in death, o Lord, abide with me
Abide with me, abide with me

Those bloody Bible thumpers sticking their oar in, and why do they end it with a prayer, but look Prof, as our Jim calls it, the butchers apron being lowered to half mast, it is bloody littered with religious symbolism.

Sorry to disappoint Prof but you have nailed nothing. ;)

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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #57 on: November 28, 2016, 05:05:24 PM »
Dear Prof,

Nope, you think you nailed it, but what I see in your post is a brush over of all the topics I mentioned, for instance, Remembrance day or another name it is called, Remembrance Sunday, why is it conducted on a day culturally linked to worship, where are the services held.
Hi Gonners,

I think you need to do a little more homework on the origins of Remembrance day (and also to note that Remembrance day and Remembrance Sunday are distinct).

Remembrance day was established as a civic and state commemoration event for those that had died in WWI. It was established as a secular commemoration and this actually annoyed the churches at the time, but the government held firm. Hence the Cenotaph was designed without religious symbolism (against the desire of the church) that the commemorations then (and now) are run by secular organisations and take place in civic (non religious) space - at the cenotaph or next to a war memorial, not in a church. The event was very deliberately set up to be secular in recognition that those who had died were of all religions and none.

The events are run under the auspices of the Royal British Legion - a secular organisation and a range of civic dignitaries and uniformed organisations are invited to take part, including religious groups, but crucially it isn't their event.

The official symbol is the poppy - a non religious symbol.

At the official ceremony at the Cenotaph the same 18 pieces of music has been played since 1930 and is almost exclusively secular in nature - just two pieces could be described as hymns, but in reality one of those (O Valiant Hearts) is really a musical setting of a war poem.

You might want to read up on the history because it is interesting in that the Government explicitly rejected attempts by the CofE to make the Cenotaph and the commemoration religious rather than secular. The CofE actually tried to set up a rival commemoration in Westminster Abbey and tried (but failed) to persuade the government to shift the official commemoration from the Cenotaph to the Abbey.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2016, 05:18:18 PM by ProfessorDavey »

Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #58 on: November 28, 2016, 06:01:11 PM »
Who made any comment regarding argumentum ad populum? Certainly not me.

All I was doing was to point out that with regard to demographics both brexit and religiosity are in the same boat in relation to direction of travel - both downward in terms of support as each are predominantly the position of those who are elderly, while those who are young are predominately against brexit and (in the UK) overwhelmingly non religious. And that direction of travel is the same for religion worldwide on the basis of the proportion of people self identifying as religious, non religious and atheist.

None of this provides any claim about the correctness of either position (brexit or religion), in other words an argumentum ad populum - and indeed direction of travel of opinion rather than a snap-shot of majority (or otherwise) of opinion wouldn't any how.
I'm glad you don't share the dinosaur analogy with the jack knave and ippys.
Christianity is not transmitted by genes and memetics is what some call bollocks. I think it is the sort of thing that could flare up and i'm afraid it is people like yourself who have to hope it doesn't.

At the moment Christianity is a pretty safe stereotype to put all of the 'bads' into but a caricature peddled can't survive time.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2016, 06:44:45 PM by The Burden of Spoof »

Hope

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #59 on: November 28, 2016, 06:34:34 PM »
All I was doing was to point out that with regard to demographics both brexit and religiosity are in the same boat in relation to direction of travel - both downward in terms of support as each are predominantly the position of those who are elderly, while those who are young are predominately against brexit and (in the UK) overwhelmingly non religious. And that direction of travel is the same for religion worldwide on the basis of the proportion of people self identifying as religious, non religious and atheist.
Oddly enough, PD, from what I have been able to glean about the Brexit vote here, it was predominantly the early middle-aged folk (~30-50) who seemed to vote for Brexit.  The younger and older folk seemed keen to stay.   I accept that that was simply an unofficial poll that I took as I talked to folk in the aftermath of the vote.
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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #60 on: November 28, 2016, 08:11:34 PM »
Oddly enough, PD, from what I have been able to glean about the Brexit vote here, it was predominantly the early middle-aged folk (~30-50) who seemed to vote for Brexit.  The younger and older folk seemed keen to stay.   I accept that that was simply an unofficial poll that I took as I talked to folk in the aftermath of the vote.
As you say your chatting to a few folk that you know isn't a proper assessment of voting demographics by age.

All of the proper polling showed a pretty well perfect relationship between age and likelihood of voting leave.

Here is one example - there are plenty of others - the absolute numbers might change a touch but the trend doesn't.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

So leave % is:
18-24 yrs - 27%
25-34 - 38%
35-44 - 48%
45-54 - 56%
55-64 - 57%
65+ - 60%

wigginhall

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #61 on: November 28, 2016, 08:24:32 PM »
God, that's a depressing table of stats.  The young sacrificed on the altar of old gits' prejudices.  Can't we just deport old people somewhere?
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L.A.

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #62 on: November 28, 2016, 10:20:41 PM »
As you say your chatting to a few folk that you know isn't a proper assessment of voting demographics by age.

All of the proper polling showed a pretty well perfect relationship between age and likelihood of voting leave.

Here is one example - there are plenty of others - the absolute numbers might change a touch but the trend doesn't.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

So leave % is:
18-24 yrs - 27%
25-34 - 38%
35-44 - 48%
45-54 - 56%
55-64 - 57%
65+ - 60%

Interestingly, I have many friends over 60 (with political view across the spectrum) and the vast majority voted Remain. The one exception who voted Leave just hates Poles . . . and he's not the 'sharpest knife in the box'.
Brexit Bar:

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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #63 on: November 29, 2016, 07:44:26 AM »
Interestingly, I have many friends over 60 (with political view across the spectrum) and the vast majority voted Remain. The one exception who voted Leave just hates Poles . . . and he's not the 'sharpest knife in the box'.
We all move in circles smaller than the overall demographics of the whole population.

L.A.

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #64 on: November 29, 2016, 01:26:09 PM »
We all move in circles smaller than the overall demographics of the whole population.

And these days anyone who can tell their arse from their elbow is classed as elitist.
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Full of nuts but with lots of flakey bits and a bitter aftertaste

jakswan

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #65 on: November 29, 2016, 01:30:05 PM »
As you say your chatting to a few folk that you know isn't a proper assessment of voting demographics by age.

All of the proper polling showed a pretty well perfect relationship between age and likelihood of voting leave.

Here is one example - there are plenty of others - the absolute numbers might change a touch but the trend doesn't.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

So leave % is:
18-24 yrs - 27%
25-34 - 38%
35-44 - 48%
45-54 - 56%
55-64 - 57%
65+ - 60%

Fuck me things don't change much round here, Hoppity still not learned what counts as good evidence, Prof spinning stats, Gonzo virtue signalling and the lefties sneering at anyone who disagrees. :)

To these stats, those who voted to remain in the 18-24 age group I would suspect are less than 50%, given the turnout.

The young, victims of 'I can't be arsed culture'.

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ProfessorDavey

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #66 on: November 29, 2016, 01:46:06 PM »
Fuck me things don't change much round here, Hoppity still not learned what counts as good evidence, Prof spinning stats, Gonzo virtue signalling and the lefties sneering at anyone who disagrees. :)

To these stats, those who voted to remain in the 18-24 age group I would suspect are less than 50%, given the turnout.

The young, victims of 'I can't be arsed culture'.

CU in six monthes!
In what way am I 'spinning stats' Jakswan.

All I did was point out the relationship between age and likelihood of voting leave - and then provided evidence to back up my point. No spinning whatsoever.

The further point is at what point in the future does the cross-over occur. Effectively at what point will the loss of the elderly predominantly leave voters and appearance of new young voters attaining 18 who predominantly support remain be such that the tiny majority in favour of leaving vanishes, even if no-one who voted in 2016 changes their mind. Will it be before we actually leave the EU?


Nearly Sane

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #67 on: November 29, 2016, 01:54:12 PM »
There is an assumption here that people's views will remain the same as they get older. I'm unconvinced this is valid.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #68 on: November 29, 2016, 02:07:52 PM »
There is an assumption here that people's views will remain the same as they get older. I'm unconvinced this is valid.
Yes there is, but given that we have no idea whether they'd shift more or less favourable to the EU that is the only assumption we can use.

The only point I am making is that the loss of the elderly and the gain of the young as voting cohorts will shift the balance between leave and remain even if no-one else changes their mind.

Actually the thing that is more likely to change views isn't people getting older but people becoming clearer about the consequences of brexit. Don't forget that within days of the vote there was a small, but significant (given the tiny majority) proportion of voters regretting their choice, which more regret on the leave voting side. That isn't because they were a few days older but because they were facing the reality of what they had voted and its consequences - noting that the zeitgeist in the run up to the referendum was that it was safe to vote leave as a protest because they wouldn't actually win so they'd be no real consequences.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #69 on: November 29, 2016, 02:11:42 PM »
Yes there is, but given that we have no idea whether they'd shift more or less favourable to the EU that is the only assumption we can use.

The only point I am making is that the loss of the elderly and the gain of the young as voting cohorts will shift the balance between leave and remain even if no-one else changes their mind.

Actually the thing that is more likely to change views isn't people getting older but people becoming clearer about the consequences of brexit. Don't forget that within days of the vote there was a small, but significant (given the tiny majority) proportion of voters regretting their choice, which more regret on the leave voting side. That isn't because they were a few days older but because they were facing the reality of what they had voted and its consequences - noting that the zeitgeist in the run up to the referendum was that it was safe to vote leave as a protest because they wouldn't actually win so they'd be no real consequences.
. If we have no idea what will happen, then Ker's name no assumption.

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #70 on: November 29, 2016, 02:20:40 PM »
. If we have no idea what will happen, then Ker's name no assumption.
I don't understand what you mean.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #71 on: November 29, 2016, 02:28:12 PM »
I don't understand what you mean.
apologies for the typoes, but if we have 'no idea' what happens to their views, then we should make no assumptions about it at all.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2016, 02:34:10 PM by Nearly Sane »

ProfessorDavey

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #72 on: November 29, 2016, 03:07:53 PM »
apologies for the typoes, but if we have 'no idea' what happens to their views, then we should make no assumptions about it at all.
I don't - that's the point.

All I am saying is that demographic drift (elderly dying) and 17, 16 and 15 year olds becoming eligible to vote wipes out the 1.3M headroom for leave in (I think) 4 years from the 2016 vote. The only assumptions I am making are that:

The elderly die at the rate indicated in national statistics (approx. 550k per year) and their turnout and voting patterns reflects the 65+ age voting from the referendum
That about 750k young people become eligible to vote each year and that their turnout and voting patterns reflects the 18-24 age voting from the referendum
And that everyone else votes as they did before

Those seem reasonable assumptions and mean that the leave majority would vanish due to demographics by 2020.

Nearly Sane

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #73 on: November 29, 2016, 03:19:02 PM »
You are assuming that people won't change their vote as they get older despite saying you have no idea what will happen as time passes. This is an assumption , and one which your own posts contradict. And that's leaving aside the basic assumption that the votes don't change on the basis of  changed circumstances, never mind changed ages. You can't actually make any calculation without a raft of assumptions here.

Gordon

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Re: Being upbeat about Brexit.
« Reply #74 on: November 29, 2016, 03:38:48 PM »
You are assuming that people won't change their vote as they get older despite saying you have no idea what will happen as time passes. This is an assumption , and one which your own posts contradict. And that's leaving aside the basic assumption that the votes don't change on the basis of  changed circumstances, never mind changappeed ages. You can't actually make any calculation without a raft of assumptions here.

Yep - should there be, perhaps for legal reasons, a re-run (probably unlikely I know) I wouldn't be surprised if some Leave voters didn't change their minds given the apparent absence of there being any credible plans and the nauseating characters who are, allegedly, driving the Brexit bus.