Being upbeat about Brexit.

[Udayana]

It's too premature to try and decide possible trade deals/options. None of those arrangements can be finalised without agreeing on the "divorce settlement". I suspect the all the toys will be out of the pram by then, and everyone will be in a big stand-off and huff.

[wigginhall]

New film about Brexit, bit naff:

http://www.rationalskepticism.org/download/file.php?id=14810

[jakswan]

Yes I did write that. In no way was I calling for the arrest of the people who voted for Brexit.  I just want them to understand and take moral responsibility for the consequences of their choice.

Leavers made a choice based on the arguments forwarded by each side. If your own arguments were not convincing then you, by your own measure, must take "moral responsibility".

[jeremyp]

Leavers made a choice based on the arguments forwarded by each side. If your own arguments were not convincing then you, by your own measure, must take "moral responsibility".

So now you want to blame me for Leavers making a choice that could lead to lots of job losses.

[jakswan]

So now you want to blame me for Leavers making a choice that could lead to lots of job losses.

Blimey no I assume most leavers made their votes on the basis of the arguments in front of them. So society is collectively responsible.

I think we ultimately get the politicians we deserve and when the standard of the debate is 'Boris behaving like a twat again' I would encourage you to look in the mirror.

[Aruntraveller]

So as ever when leavers apportion any blame for the mess we find ourselves in - it's the remainers fault.

I note you accused people of quote mining even though it rebutted your argument. Which basically means you had no response. Perhaps we do get the politicians that reflect society - but the politicians sound a lot more like you than they sound  like ProfD.

The new world order Jackis or is it  Boriswan?

[jakswan]

So as ever when leavers apportion any blame for the mess we find ourselves in - it's the remainers fault.

No I think its stupid to think of blaming voters on any side of a debate in a democracy since both sides have the chance to convince the other they are right.

I note you accused people of quote mining even though it rebutted your argument. Which basically means you had no response.

I suggest you watch the clip which I posted which refuted many of your and Davey's quotes and were quote mines.

Perhaps we do get the politicians that reflect society - but the politicians sound a lot more like you than they sound  like ProfD. The new world order Jackis or is it  Boriswan?

I propose a new world order were we discuss the issues and points being made and refrain from insult, catchphrases, gotcha moments, quote mining, an ambition to end misrepresentation, to not demonise those which we disagree (make might an exception for Trump).

In this new world order I see you have nothing to say.

On a more serious note I wasn't 10/10 for Brexit, a 7 maybe and could have been persuaded to change my mind. I found the arguments for remaining unconvincing and the more rabid the remainers became the more unconvinced I became.

[ProfessorDavey]

I suggest you watch the clip which I posted which refuted many of your and Davey's quotes and were quote mines.

Yes I have watched the video and I disagree entirely with your conclusion.

Of course Andrew Neil does his usual bullish, slightly bullying hatchet job - it is after all his opus operandi and he's good at it. But let's actually look at what I claimed.

My point was that prior to the referendum there were loads of Leave campaigners (obviously including some of the most prominent) saying that we would remain in the single market (perhaps like Norway), and certainly not indicating that we would leave the single market. Nothing in the Andrew Neil video changes that view.

I never said all did and you'll note no quotes from Leadsom or Gove - but the point remains that the Leave campaign never gave a clear impression prior to the referendum that voting to leave the EU meant voting to leave the single market - quite the reverse, the clear mood music was 'have cake and eat it' i.e. still be in single market but have control over immigration. That is the clear message put across by the vote leave campaign.

So rather than pick up on individual quotes, perhaps we should look at the official documents of the official leave campaign:

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/our_case.html

Is there any thing anywhere in this document (effectively their manifesto) indicating we would leave the single market - nope.

Is there anything in that manifesto clearly indicating we would remain in the single market - absolutely. Scroll through to the 11th slide and you get the following:

"There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border and we will be part of it"

Note please "we will be part of it" not "we will have access to it".

That "free trade zone" is, of course, the single market. How can that official quote in the official manifesto of the official leave campaign released during the referendum campaign be construed in any other way that the UK will remain in the single market. That's what the official leave campaign campaigned on - but like so many of the other 'promises' in their manifesto it was a lie.

[Aruntraveller]

On a more serious note I wasn't 10/10 for Brexit, a 7 maybe and could have been persuaded to change my mind. I found the arguments for remaining unconvincing and the more rabid the remainers became the more unconvinced I became

Funnily enough my experience was the same but in the opposite direction. What finally tipped it was a 'discussion' I got involved in on Facebook. Clearly the Brexiteers had been primed to pick on anything they could and use it as a way of dismissing the arguments of remainers. They were quick enough to pick up on the fact that I was gay (not from anything I said in the course of the discussion - but simply from my FB page where I do not hide my sexuality) and that therefore I was in favour of the EU. A completely erroneous assumption on their part and one that I have no doubt they had been primed to use. Other friends who were Doctors and members of ethnic communities had similar experiences - I am convinced this was not a random example but a concerted effort by some behind leave to use emotive subjects to further their cause. My conclusion is that no matter how unwittingly, people who voted leave voted to enable hatred.

I'm sorry if that sounds harsh - but it feels true to me and to many people I know.

I'm not going to post about this subject again - because it is done really. We will be leaving - I have no input into that. May has made it clear that she has taken the referendum result as being the British rejecting free movement. Nothing else rates as highly. Her list of rather petulantly expressed demands makes her the Queen of Wishful Thinking - nothing good is going to come of this.

[ProfessorDavey]

They were quick enough to pick up on the fact that I was gay (not from anything I said in the course of the discussion - but simply from my FB page where I do not hide my sexuality) and that therefore I was in favour of the EU.

What an astonishingly bizarre view.

I freely admit that I move in demographically narrow circles with respect to Brexit position - being an academic, working in London and living in one of the most pro-remain parts of the country means that overwhelmingly the people I know are remain supporters.

However it is interesting that the two most pro-brexit people of my Facebook friends are both gay. Not in any way suggesting that being gay means greater likelihood of being pro-brexit, but that the notion that gay people are necessarily pro-remain is naive, and actually rather offensive in its generalisation.

[jakswan]

My conclusion is that no matter how unwittingly, people who voted leave voted to enable hatred.

I'm sorry if that sounds harsh - but it feels true to me and to many people I know.

What a hateful thing to say, I've been for equality law all my life (apart from my teenage years where I was taught in a homophobic all male school). I have been on gay pride marches and have rejoiced as backwards looking laws have been repealed and gay marriage become legal across the world, I reject being in any way associated with this sort of discrimination. 

To attempt to categorise people in this way is highly prejudiced and very hateful, its sad to see see someone like yourself to stoop to this level. Remember "when they go low  we go high".

[jakswan]

Yes I have watched the video and I disagree entirely with your conclusion.

Of course Andrew Neil does his usual bullish, slightly bullying hatchet job - it is after all his opus operandi and he's good at it. But let's actually look at what I claimed.

My point was that prior to the referendum there were loads of Leave campaigners (obviously including some of the most prominent) saying that we would remain in the single market (perhaps like Norway), and certainly not indicating that we would leave the single market. Nothing in the Andrew Neil video changes that view.

No lets go back to the start. You said:-
Leave supporter after Leave supporter prior to the referendum clearly indicated that there was no chance of us leaving the single market even if we left the EU.

I then posted this video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dghdvVbtowM

Skip to 1min 41.

I never said all did and you'll note no quotes from Leadsom or Gove - but the point remains that the Leave campaign never gave a clear impression prior to the referendum that voting to leave the EU meant voting to leave the single market - quite the reverse, the clear mood music was 'have cake and eat it' i.e. still be in single market but have control over immigration. That is the clear message put across by the vote leave campaign.

Find me a quote of someone from the leave campaign who said we should stay in the single market, I'll find five who said we shouldn't. Cameron made it clear if we voted to leave we leave the single market, as did Osborne.

So rather than pick up on individual quotes, perhaps we should look at the official documents of the official leave campaign:

http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/our_case.html

Is there any thing anywhere in this document (effectively their manifesto) indicating we would leave the single market - nope.

Is there anything in that manifesto clearly indicating we would remain in the single market - absolutely. Scroll through to the 11th slide and you get the following:

"There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border and we will be part of it"

Note please "we will be part of it" not "we will have access to it".

Sigh maybe stop digging now, it then goes on to say "we don't need to accept the control of EU court to trade with it".. so out then.

That "free trade zone" is, of course, the single market.

Really maybe you better tell Turkey that I don't think they know.

How can that official quote in the official manifesto of the official leave campaign released during the referendum campaign be construed in any other way that the UK will remain in the single market. That's what the official leave campaign campaigned on - but like so many of the other 'promises' in their manifesto it was a lie.

You took them to be promises? LOL the remain and leave campaigns had to come up with a case for remain or leave, clearly any promises should have been ignored as they wouldn't have the power to enact them.

[ProfessorDavey]

Find me a quote of someone from the leave campaign who said we should stay in the single market

The official Leave campaign's official manifesto document:

"There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border and we will be part of it"

Would you like to explain to me exactly what this free trade zone is, that we will remain part of, except the single market (or perhaps the customs zone).

It is there in black and white in their manifesto - we will remain part of the free trade zone. How can that be construed in any other way than we will be remaining in the single market.

Actually to be completely accurate, given the description of the zone extending from Iceland to Turkey the only interpretation is that we will remain part of both the single market and the custom's union, as only that combination meets the Iceland to Turkey free trade zone description.

Or perhaps you know of some other 'secret' free trade zone that covers that geographical range.

The manifesto clearly stated we would be part of the free trade zone (not just have access, but be part of) - that was a lie.

[jeremyp]

Blimey no I assume most leavers made their votes on the basis of the arguments in front of them. So society is collectively responsible.

No, society is not collectively responsible. This is down to the people who voted Leave.

Don't worry, in the event that leaving the EU is actually a success, I won't be throwing your collective responsibility back in your face.

I think we ultimately get the politicians we deserve and when the standard of the debate is 'Boris behaving like a twat again' I would encourage you to look in the mirror.

Don't you think that the British foreign secretary making stupid inflammatory remarks ahead of a delicate negotiation process is important?

Furthermore, characterising the entire debate based on one sentence in one post does nothing to raise the standard.

[jeremyp]

Here's a perspective written byt a Frenchman

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/18/europe-loser-brexit-britain

This paragraph is particularly brutal

Above all, May says nothing about services. How, for instance, can banks retain guaranteed access to the continent, a necessity as soon as the City is no longer a financial centre for the euro? What does Theresa May envisage offering in exchange? Because with all due respect to UK national sentiment, the reality is brutal: we are talking about a mid-ranking power of 65 million people, most of whose industry is owned by foreign capital, negotiating with one of the world’s principal trading, economic and monetary powers – a power that comes with a market of 450 million people. Which countries does Britain export to, and where does a good part of its foreign investment come from? Where is the power? Who has the most to lose in all this? Threatening that Britain will become a tax haven if it doesn’t get what it wants amounts to childishness: such a solution might be possible for a micro-state without its own industry, but not for a country like Britain.

It hurts more because it is true.

[ProfessorDavey]

So just to clarify:

There are two recent votes which we should look at to determine whether there is a democratic mandate to leave the Single market and/or the customs union. To determine whether there is we need to look at the manifesto's of the winners in each of those elections.

The first is, of course, the referendum, in which the manifesto of the official Leave campaign stated:

"There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border and we will be part of it"

Secondly there is the 2015 general election on which the democratic mandate of the government rests. The 2015 Conservative manifesto stated:

“We say: yes to the single market”

There is no democratic mandate, from either the referendum or the 2015 general election for leaving the single market.

[jakswan]

The official Leave campaign's official manifesto document:

"There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border and we will be part of it"

Would you like to explain to me exactly what this free trade zone is, that we will remain part of, except the single market (or perhaps the customs zone).

There is the single market, if you are in it then you are bound by EU Court, Customs Union then there is a free trade zone where you tariff free access to the single market.

Every mainstream politician that I can think of wants to be part of the free trade zone. Almost every leader of BOTH remain and leave campaigns clearly stated during the campaign that a vote to leave was a vote to leave the single market. I've shown a video with the leaders being very clear, even those on your own side, but you don't think they were?

The manifesto clearly stated we would be part of the free trade zone (not just have access, but be part of) - that was a lie.

Being part of the free trade zone is not the same as being in the single market, the fact that you don't know this makes you come across as ill-informed, I don't think you are kidding anyone other than yourself.

[ProfessorDavey]

There is the single market, if you are in it then you are bound by EU Court, Customs Union then there is a free trade zone where you tariff free access to the single market.

Stop waffling.

Simple question - please explain to me what the 'free trade zone' which the official Leave manifesto clearly stated we would be 'part of' is, if not the Single Market, EEA/EFTA or Customs Union or combinations thereof.

The manifesto doesn't talk of 'access to' this free trade zone, but being 'part of' - so don't obfuscate by trying to translate this to access. That is not what the manifesto said.

[jakswan]

No, society is not collectively responsible. This is down to the people who voted Leave.

Don't worry, in the event that leaving the EU is actually a success, I won't be throwing your collective responsibility back in your face.
Don't you think that the British foreign secretary making stupid inflammatory remarks ahead of a delicate negotiation process is important?

Oh I don't worry what you throw in my face pal, water off a ducks back.

Furthermore, characterising the entire debate based on one sentence in one post does nothing to raise the standard.

I was not characterising the entire debate but you, in fairness Davey despite his quote mines, crazy spins and misrepresentations has actually raised issues and made coherent points. You on the other hand always go low.

[ProfessorDavey]

Every mainstream politician that I can think of wants to be part of the free trade zone.

Except the Prime Minister who clearly stated this week that we would leave this free trade zone (the single market) and also by inference also the Custom Union - as you cannot negotiate your own trade deals while remaining in the customs union.

But glad you now agree that before the referendum most (but not all) politicians said they were in favour of being part of that free trade zone - but there has been a complete u-turn, as May's speech this week is very clearly not consistent with being part of the free trade zone.

[jakswan]

Stop waffling.

In what way was that waffle.

Simple question - please explain to me what the 'free trade zone' which the official Leave manifesto clearly stated we would be 'part of' is, if not the Single Market, EEA/EFTA or Customs Union or combinations thereof.

The manifesto doesn't talk of 'access to' this free trade zone, but being 'part of' - so don't obfuscate by trying to translate this to access. That is not what the manifesto said.

Wow you really didn't know. Let the BBC help you out:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36083664

[ProfessorDavey]

Wow you really didn't know. Let the BBC help you out:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36083664

Which tells me nothing I didn't already know, or have stated above (see reply 342)

May's speech isn't consistent with being part of the single market, EEA, EFTA or Custom's Union.

So if not the single market, EEA, EFTA, Custom's Union (or combinations thereof) exactly which 'free trade zone' extending from Iceland to Turkey is it that we will be part of as the official Leave campaign's official manifesto so clearly stated.

[jakswan]

Which tells me nothing I didn't already know, or have stated above (see reply 342)

May's speech isn't consistent with being part of the single market, EEA, EFTA or Custom's Union.

So if not the single market, EEA, EFTA, Custom's Union (or combinations thereof) exactly which 'free trade zone' extending from Iceland to Turkey is it that we will be part of as the official Leave campaign's official manifesto so clearly stated.

Turkey and Ukraine are in the free trade zone they are not in the single market.I haven't read May's speech but as far as I'm aware she wants a free trade deal with EU and will then become part of the free trade zone but not in the single market, customs union.

From BBC
"The EU is therefore not a free trade area - it is a single market."

Lets not forgot you started this part of the debate with:-
"Leave supporter after Leave supporter prior to the referendum clearly indicated that there was no chance of us leaving the single market even if we left the EU."

I have linked to leaders of both campaigns expressly stating during the campaign if we voted to leave we leave the single market, it was not unclear in any way.

[ProfessorDavey]

Turkey and Ukraine are in the free trade zone they are not in the single market.I haven't read May's speech but as far as I'm aware she wants a free trade deal with EU and will then become part of the free trade zone but not in the single market, customs union.

Still no answer - the official Leave campaign's official manifesto clearly state that there was already in existence a 'free trade zone' that we would remain part of even if we left that EU.

Please tell me what that 'free trade zone' is if not the single market, EEA, EFTA or Custom's Union (or combinations thereof).

A deal with a free trade zone doesn't make you part of that free trade zone Jaksan - there is a trade deal with Canada just signed by the EU - does that make Canada part of a 'free trade zone' with the EU - no it doesn't. Being part of necessarily implies membership.

You can obfuscate all you like but the clear message from the official Leave campaign was that we would remain part of (i.e. be a member of) an existing free trade zone that ranged from Iceland to Turkey if we voted to leave the EU. That isn't consistent with May's speech.

[ProfessorDavey]

From BBC
"The EU is therefore not a free trade area - it is a single market."

I know - I never said it was - the "free trade zone" is defined by membership of one (or a combination of) the EU, EAA, EFTA and Customs Union - no other country regardless of whether they have a deal for preferential access to the free trade zone is part of it.

Lets not forgot you started this part of the debate with:-
"Leave supporter after Leave supporter prior to the referendum clearly indicated that there was no chance of us leaving the single market even if we left the EU."

I have linked to leaders of both campaigns expressly stating during the campaign if we voted to leave we leave the single market, it was not unclear in any way.

Of course the remain campaigners warned that living the EU might also mean leaving the single market, EAA, EFTA and Customs Union but their concerns were dismissed as 'project fear' by the Leave campaign whose official manifesto clearly stated that:

"There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border and we will be part of it"

And many of the Leave campaigners made the same basis statement (albeit in varying types of language) - Chris Grayling being the most 'on message' with the official manifesto pledge.