Being upbeat about Brexit.

[jakswan]

Still no answer - the official Leave campaign's official manifesto clearly state that there was already in existence a 'free trade zone' that we would remain part of even if we left that EU.

Please tell me what that 'free trade zone' is if not the single market, EEA, EFTA or Custom's Union (or combinations thereof).

It is a term coined by them to describe those countries that can trade without tariffs with each other, it includes members of the EU, EEA, EFTA, plus Turkey and Ukraine.

A deal with a free trade zone doesn't make you part of that free trade zone Jaksan - there is a trade deal with Canada just signed by the EU - does that make Canada part of a 'free trade zone' with the EU - no it doesn't. Being part of necessarily implies membership.

Not if its term I made up, there will be a free trade zone stretching from Canada to the western borders of Russia.

You can obfuscate all you like but the clear message from the official Leave campaign was that we would remain part of (i.e. be a member of) an existing free trade zone that ranged from Iceland to Turkey if we voted to leave the EU. That isn't consistent with May's speech.

I'm not obfuscating you said:-

"Leave supporter after Leave supporter prior to the referendum clearly indicated that there was no chance of us leaving the single market even if we left the EU."

That has been utterly refuted by the video I posted, you've spent the last two pages conflating the single market with a free trade zone, so its you who obfuscate either that or you just don't understand. I've tried to explain it to you countless time, linked to the BBC which specifically refutes you and still you are digging.

Again the BBC
"The EU is therefore not a free trade area - it is a single market."

Can you quote May speech where she says she wants to impose tariffs on the EU?

[jeremyp]

Oh I don't worry what you throw in my face pal, water off a ducks back.

I was not characterising the entire debate but you, in fairness Davey despite his quote mines, crazy spins and misrepresentations has actually raised issues and made coherent points. You on the other hand always go low.

In what way have I gone low? Pointing out that the foreign secretary has been deeply insulting to the people he will soon be engaging in negotiation with is not going low, it's the truth.

[SusanDoris]

Just coming back here today to ask for opinions on a question phoned in last night after QT. A woman said that Theresa May talks of trade, but, she asked, what do we have to trade? I thought that was spot on. There was someone this morning with an engineering firm, but what principal industries and goods do countries in the rest of the world want that only the UK can provide?

[ProfessorDavey]

It is a term coined by them to describe those countries that can trade without tariffs with each other, it includes members of the EU, EEA, EFTA, plus Turkey and Ukraine.

I would agree that it covers membership of (including in combination) the single market, EU, EEA, EFTA and the customs union.

This is helpful - see particularly the pair of maps with countries largely indicated in blue:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade_areas_in_Europe

I am frankly bemused at the mention of Ukraine (think this is probably sloppy BBC journalism) and the Leave manifesto made no indication that they thought Ukraine to be part of their stated 'free trade zone' that exists. There is no free trade zone including Ukraine in any way equivalent to the single market, EU, EEA, EFTA and the customs union.

So just to be clear - build a car in the UK export it to the Ukraine - you have to pay a 12.5% tariff - same on pretty well all other goods. Plus equivalent barriers to trade in services and non tariff barriers. None of these exist in what we all recognise as the free trade zone we are currently part of as a member of the EU.

The point is that May's speech ruled out being a member of the single market, but her speech is completely inconsistent with being a member of EEA, EFTA or the customs union - in which case we will not be part of the free trade zone that extends from Iceland to Turkey and the border of Russia, as the official Leave campaign's official manifesto clearly stated we would.

[ProfessorDavey]

Again the BBC
"The EU is therefore not a free trade area - it is a single market."

Where did I ever say it was - I am well aware that there are countries in the free trade zone that aren't in the EU (e.g. Norway). What I am struggling to understand is how you would define this free trade zone other than by membership of one or more of EU, EEA, EFTA or Customs zone.

Can you quote May speech where she says she wants to impose tariffs on the EU?

Firstly tariffs are two way things Jakswan.

Secondly May's speech specifically ruled out being in the single market, so we cannot be members of the EU (obviously) nor EEA nor EFTA. And she wants to have the ability to develop independent trade deals, which rules our being in the customs union, so by inference we cannot be in this free trade zone.

So a little question for you - name me a country on this planet (other than those in the single market, EU, EEA, ETFA or customs union) where there aren't tariffs applied to some goods on import/export with the UK - noting that there are none currently within that zone.

Finally tariffs aren't the only barriers to trade and indeed as we are a service driven economy non tariff barriers to services are probably more important. We currently enjoy free trade within the free trade zone without non tariff barriers, for example in services.

So another little question for you - name me a country on this planet (other than those in the single market, EU, EEA, ETFA or customs union) where there aren't non-tariff barriers applied to to 'import/export' or services with the UK - noting that there are none currently within that zone.

[Udayana]

Just coming back here today to ask for opinions on a question phoned in last night after QT. A woman said that Theresa May talks of trade, but, she asked, what do we have to trade? I thought that was spot on. There was someone this morning with an engineering firm, but what principal industries and goods do countries in the rest of the world want that only the UK can provide?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_exports_of_the_United_Kingdom

The values are from 2012 and does not include services^*.  Lists vary depending on how different goods are grouped together as well as on market values. For detailed, up to date, information you can download spreadsheets from the ONS.

It is not really goods that "only the UK can provide" but competition on costs, quality and reliability of supply. All the types of goods and services exported by the UK are available from other sources. Note that the UK runs a trade deficit, ie we normally import more than we export - currently the deficit is about £4.5b.

* Services exports currently are over £100b.

[jakswan]

I would agree that it covers membership of (including in combination) the single market, EU, EEA, EFTA and the customs union.

This is helpful - see particularly the pair of maps with countries largely indicated in blue:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade_areas_in_Europe

I am frankly bemused at the mention of Ukraine (think this is probably sloppy BBC journalism) and the Leave manifesto made no indication that they thought Ukraine to be part of their stated 'free trade zone' that exists. There is no free trade zone including Ukraine in any way equivalent to the single market, EU, EEA, EFTA and the customs union.

So just to be clear - build a car in the UK export it to the Ukraine - you have to pay a 12.5% tariff - same on pretty well all other goods. Plus equivalent barriers to trade in services and non tariff barriers. None of these exist in what we all recognise as the free trade zone we are currently part of as a member of the EU.

The point is that May's speech ruled out being a member of the single market, but her speech is completely inconsistent with being a member of EEA, EFTA or the customs union - in which case we will not be part of the free trade zone that extends from Iceland to Turkey and the border of Russia, as the official Leave campaign's official manifesto clearly stated we would.

Turkey?

[ProfessorDavey]

Turkey?

Is in the customs union and is an EU accession state.

So Nope - try again.

[jakswan]

The point is that May's speech ruled out being a member of the single market, but her speech is completely inconsistent with being a member of EEA, EFTA or the customs union - in which case we will not be part of the free trade zone that extends from Iceland to Turkey and the border of Russia, as the official Leave campaign's official manifesto clearly stated we would.

She wants to negotiate a deal where she has free trade with the EU and therefore would be part of the land mass from Iceland to Russia that you can call a free trade zone.

Are you now withdrawing?
"Leave supporter after Leave supporter prior to the referendum clearly indicated that there was no chance of us leaving the single market even if we left the EU."

[ProfessorDavey]

She wants to negotiate a deal where she has free trade with the EU and therefore would be part of the land mass from Iceland to Russia that you can call a free trade zone.

Slip, sliding away, slip, sliding away-ahay.

Prior to the referendum the official Leave manifesto stated very clearly that:

"There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border and we will be part of it"

Unless May changes her mind that will not happen, as the only countries that are in that 'free trade zone" are in it either as members of the single market (via EU, EEA or EFTA membership) and/or are members of the Customs Union. May has stated that we will leave the single market and if we want to develop our own trade deals we cannot be part of the Customs Union, so we will no longer be part of the free trade zone, contrary to the Leave manifesto's official pledge.

Are you now withdrawing?
"Leave supporter after Leave supporter prior to the referendum clearly indicated that there was no chance of us leaving the single market even if we left the EU."

No - why would I, because it is true.

And indeed the comments went on after the referendum too:

So here is Daniel Hannan - often described as the intellectual heavyweight of the Leave side the very day after the referendum clearly stating that we should stay in the single market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5jTRoySFfo

[jakswan]

Slip, sliding away, slip, sliding away-ahay.

Prior to the referendum the official Leave manifesto stated very clearly that:

"There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border and we will be part of it"

Yet leaders of the campaigns of both sides clearly stated if we voted to leave we leave the single market.

Unless May changes her mind that will not happen,

If the Eu gives the UK a free trade deal, which is what May wants, there will still exist a "free trade zone" of which we will be part.

as currently the only countries that are in that 'free trade zone" are in it either as members of the single market (via EU, EEA or EFTA membership) and/or are members of the Customs Union.

fify.

May has stated that we will leave the single market and if we want to develop our own trade deals we cannot be part of the Customs Union, so we will no longer be part of the free trade zone, contrary to the Leave manifesto's official pledge.

No see above.

No - why would I, because it is true.

Well not really your position is that people who voted for leave did not understand that would mean leaving the single market yet leaders of both leave and remain clearly stated that was exactly what it meant.

And indeed the comments went on after the referendum too:

So here is Daniel Hannan - often described as the intellectual heavyweight of the Leave side the very day after the referendum clearly stating that we should stay in the single market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5jTRoySFfo

Give me the time "it may well mean...." isn't "clearly stating".

[SusanDoris]

Udayana

Thank you for the information and the link, much appreciated.

[ProfessorDavey]

If the Eu gives the UK a free trade deal, which is what May wants, there will still exist a "free trade zone" of which we will be part.

No we won't.

Any more than South Korea, or Canada or any of the other 50 or so countries that have deals with the EU on trade. Having a deal with the EU does not make you a part of their free trade zone. The only way you can be part of that free trade zone is to be a member of either the single market or the Customs Union - hence "There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border ..."

Not:

"There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border and fifty other random bits of the globe."

If we choose not to be a member of the single market or the customs union we will not be part of that free trade zone. That is what May clearly implied in her speech directly contradicting the official Leave campaign's manifesto pledge.

[ProfessorDavey]

Yet leaders of the campaigns of both sides clearly stated if we voted to leave we leave the single market.

Sure plenty of remain campaigners warned that the consequence of brexit would be to no longer be part of the single market and the customs unions (collectively described by the Leave campaign as the 'free trade zone"), but they were routinely dismissed by the leave campaign, and many leave campaigners as 'project fear' when it was, of course 'project reality'. And the official Leave campaign officially repeated the lie in their official manifesto (which of course all leading members of the official Leave sign up to out of collective responsibility) when they stated that:

 "There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border and we will be part of it"

We can only be part of that free trade zone by being in the single market, the customs union or both. Membership of one or both of those two entities defines whether you are part of the free trade zone.

[ProfessorDavey]

The other platitude from the leavers that needs to be completely flattened, jumped on and ground into the ground until dust is phrases of the following nature:

We will have access to the single market - indicating some kind of equivalence to being in the single market.

So let's call that one out:

The notion of "access to the single market" is totally meaningless - it is a non-sense statement. I think virtually every country on the planet has "access to the single market", i.e. they are able to trade with countries in the single market, sell and buy stuff. I suspect the only countries that don't have "access to the single market" are countries with complete trade sanction regime in place from the EU - perhaps North Korea. But every other country already has "access to the single market" - Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, the Solomon Islands etc etc.

It is a completely meaningless statement and I have no doubt deliberately used to mislead - somehow equating "access to the single market" with lack of tariffs and non tariff barriers to trade, which are, of course, part and parcel to the vast majority of countries that have "access to the single market".

So it is of course true that we will have "access to the single market" once we leave (unless we do something so appealing that trade sanctions are applied) - so what. What we have now is the ability to trade completely free from tariffs and non tariff barriers to trade. Will we get that - almost certainly not, as the 'price' for that access is signing up to the other freedoms embedded in the single market including movement of people. And before you claim that the EU wouldn't dare to stand up to the UK if it wasn't going to accept freedom of movement, just look at Switzerland. Recently it looked as if they were going to impose controls on immigration contrary to the single market principles - quick as a flash the EU made it absolutely clear that the freedoms were indivisible and they were entiteld to change their immigration policy but a automatic consequence would be that they would no longer the ability to trade completely free from tariffs and non tariff barriers.

[Nearly Sane]

The other platitude from the leavers that needs to be completely flattened, jumped on and ground into the ground until dust is phrases of the following nature

Or as elsewhere expressed 'Kill them, kill them all!'

[jakswan]

No we won't.

Any more than South Korea, or Canada or any of the other 50 or so countries that have deals with the EU on trade. Having a deal with the EU does not make you a part of their free trade zone.

I would say a free trade zone is an area where no tariffs are applied across country borders in that zone, if May gets a free trade deal the UK will reside in the this free trade zone.

[jakswan]

Sure plenty of remain campaigners warned that the consequence of brexit would be to no longer be part of the single market and the customs unions

And plenty of leavers remember the clip I posted.

(collectively described by the Leave campaign as the 'free trade zone"),

No because in the sentence after that the do explain we will not be under the jurisdiction of Eu court.

but they were routinely dismissed by the leave campaign,

Those claims were dismissed by leavers, link please?

and many leave campaigners as 'project fear' when it was, of course 'project reality'.

No project fear was not about single market but what would happen if we voted leave. Remember the recession that didn't happen that you went on and on and on about.

And the official Leave campaign officially repeated the lie in their official manifesto (which of course all leading members of the official Leave sign up to out of collective responsibility) when they stated that:

 "There is a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and the Russian border and we will be part of it"

I don't think that is a lie but we can agree to disagree.

We can only be part of that free trade zone by being in the single market, the customs union or both. Membership of one or both of those two entities defines whether you are part of the free trade zone.

So you assert I disagree.

[jakswan]

The other platitude from the leavers that needs to be completely flattened, jumped on and ground into the ground until dust is phrases of the following nature:

You are not very persuasive you know, maybe if that was your aim instead of ranting you might have succeeded in changing my mind. 

We will have access to the single market - indicating some kind of equivalence to being in the single market.

If we have tariff free access to the single market then there is equivalence to being in the single market because in both cases no tariffs are applied. I accept the full phrase should be used, if anyone says that.

We seem to be going over old ground now, Labour will vote for article 50 given May's aims, so we are leaving. Clearly you wish for the Uk to stay in the single market surely the next best thing is get a free trade deal isn't it?

[Udayana]

...
We seem to be going over old ground now, Labour will vote for article 50 given May's aims, so we are leaving. Clearly you wish for the Uk to stay in the single market surely the next best thing is get a free trade deal isn't it?

What makes you think we will get a free trade deal? Do you have any arguments to persuade the remaining EU to agree one for the UK that does not include freedom of movement?

Soon after the UK notifies the EU of withdrawal, May will be presented with a bill for £50-£60b. Is she going to pay up? EU leaders have insisted that it will have to be properly settled before any discussion of further deals.

[ProfessorDavey]

If we have tariff free access to the single market then there is equivalence to being in the single market because in both cases no tariffs are applied.

No it wont - not by a long way. The benefits of being in the single market are that there are no tariffs or non-tariff barriers to trading within that single market. As a service driven economy those non tariff barriers are arguably more important than tariffs to our economic wellbeing. So just a lack of tariffs would place us in a position way inferior to being in the single market.

[jakswan]

What makes you think we will get a free trade deal? Do you have any arguments to persuade the remaining EU to agree one for the UK that does not include freedom of movement?

Soon after the UK notifies the EU of withdrawal, May will be presented with a bill for £50-£60b. Is she going to pay up? EU leaders have insisted that it will have to be properly settled before any discussion of further deals.

Besides the point.

[jakswan]

No it wont - not by a long way. The benefits of being in the single market are that there are no tariffs or non-tariff barriers to trading within that single market. As a service driven economy those non tariff barriers are arguably more important than tariffs to our economic wellbeing. So just a lack of tariffs would place us in a position way inferior to being in the single market.

Not claiming they are the same, again this is old ground the debate is over. Labour are voting for article 50 after May's speech, once that is invoked two years and we are out.

[Udayana]

Besides the point.

Quite possible. Honestly, I'm struggling to understand what point you are trying to make.

[ProfessorDavey]

Not claiming they are the same ...

Yes you were.

Just a few posts ago you stated that:

'If we have tariff free access to the single market then there is equivalence to being in the single market ...' (my emphasis).

Last time I looked equivalence was defined as equal in value, same in value, sameness.

So you were claiming they were the same.

Glad you now recognise that any deal post brexit wont be the same or equivalent to our current deal but will be inferior.