#839
Anyone doing statistics will tell you that extrapolation can be unreliable because behaviour outside the range of observable data cannot be guaranteed.
As someone who used to do statistics (a lot, during my career) I'm curious about how you could know about 'behaviour outside the range of observable' at all if you can't observe or model it, and importantly, get the numeric data you need to do statistics with: where the basis for extrapolation will involve the results. You would at least need demonstrable grounds on which to base a hypothesis and then design an investigation to test this, by collecting and analysing the data (the statistical bit) in order to accept or reject your hypothesis.
From the statistics side, the
demonstrable grounds would be any conclusion based on what can be observed. In the context of the discussions here about emergence, that would be what type of emergence is observable.
Extrapolating from that may be correct, correct up to a point or incorrect. So if e.g. I record Usain Bolt running 100m, record his time after every 10m and plot it on a graph, extrapolating to 200m to make predictions may be quite close (in fact, his 200m world record is less than double his 100m world record!). If I extrapolated further to say that he could run 400m in 40 seconds, we know that wouldn't be the case, because of fatigue. Ok, so all of that is testable.
In the context of the discussion here, one hypothesis has life
emerging from organic and inorganic matter coming together (assumption of an adaptive system). All of the observable examples I've seen on emergence so far that are based on nature have one thing in common:
Life is already present. In contrast, the hypothesis means life from non-life, an extrapolation from what is observable to apply to something that is not, to get round the
something from nothing problem. In contrast, observation from non-adaptive emergent systems (bluehillside gave the example of a snowflake in #604; the
emergent order there coming from the giving up of heat energy and the water molecules losing their dynamism) show that they stay that way.