Sleaford by election

[Walt Zingmatilder]

What happened to the voice of the people?

[Harrowby Hall]

Laryngitis.

[L.A.]

What happened to the voice of the people?

What happened to Labour?

[Nearly Sane]

Laryngitis.

Faragitis

[JP]

What happened to Labour?

A vision for the future.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

What happened to Labour?

Who?

[ProfessorDavey]

What happened to the voice of the people?

The interesting thing about this bye-election, is, frankly, its lack of interest.

You usually assume there will be a seismic shift (as there was in Richmond) - but no such thing here. Tories down a touch, UKIP down a touch, Labour dropping a bit more (but only 7%, which in the context of bye-elections is small) with the LibDems the beneficiaries. So the Toriy majority is pretty well identical in % terms to 2015.

Perhaps the interesting point (and we saw in Richmond too) is the increase in LibDem vote - they are now the voice in England for those who don't want brexit as Labour have completely caved in. So it is unsurprising that in Richmond, a heavily remain voting area the LibDems hoovered up the votes, sufficient to win. But a lot of people were saying, 'sure, so what, wee how their anti brexit views go down in the rest of the country'. Well this constituency was one of the heaviest leave voting, yet the LibDems were the only one of the main parties to improve their position, pretty well doubling their vote share compared to 2015.

People seem to have forgotten that 48% voted against brexit, and if all but one political party caves in to the 52% then the 'last man standing' has massive opportunities to hoover up large proportions of the 48%.

[jakswan]

The interesting thing about this bye-election, is, frankly, its lack of interest.

You usually assume there will be a seismic shift (as there was in Richmond) - but no such thing here. Tories down a touch, UKIP down a touch, Labour dropping a bit more (but only 7%, which in the context of bye-elections is small) with the LibDems the beneficiaries. So the Toriy majority is pretty well identical in % terms to 2015.

Perhaps the interesting point (and we saw in Richmond too) is the increase in LibDem vote - they are now the voice in England for those who don't want brexit as Labour have completely caved in. So it is unsurprising that in Richmond, a heavily remain voting area the LibDems hoovered up the votes, sufficient to win. But a lot of people were saying, 'sure, so what, wee how their anti brexit views go down in the rest of the country'. Well this constituency was one of the heaviest leave voting, yet the LibDems were the only one of the main parties to improve their position, pretty well doubling their vote share compared to 2015.

People seem to have forgotten that 48% voted against brexit, and if all but one political party caves in to the 52% then the 'last man standing' has massive opportunities to hoover up large proportions of the 48%.

Wow i completely agree, another few results like this and I think we will see another war in labour.

[ProfessorDavey]

Wow i completely agree, another few results like this and I think we will see another war in labour.

Problem being that Corbyn seems unmovable, on the basis that he won't go voluntarily and the membership won't kick him out.

Given the appalling state we are in at the moment - in all sorts of ways - we desperately need, at the very least, a really effective opposition holding the government to account. And clearly that opposition should be representing the 48%, given that currently, with the exception of the LibDems, all the other parties in England seem to have caved into the the notion that the only people who matter are the 52%.

Shame too that the LibDems have such a lightweight leader - although it is interesting that even without a leader who really commands respect they seem to be doing pretty well currently. Think how they might be doing with a Paddy Ashdown or Charles Kennedy (or even a pre-coalition Nick Clegg), rather than Tim Farron.

[L.A.]

Problem being that Corbyn seems unmovable, on the basis that he won't go voluntarily and the membership won't kick him out.

Given the appalling state we are in at the moment - in all sorts of ways - we desperately need, at the very least, a really effective opposition holding the government to account. And clearly that opposition should be representing the 48%, given that currently, with the exception of the LibDems, all the other parties in England seem to have caved into the the notion that the only people who matter are the 52%.

Shame too that the LibDems have such a lightweight leader - although it is interesting that even without a leader who really commands respect they seem to be doing pretty well currently. Think how they might be doing with a Paddy Ashdown or Charles Kennedy (or even a pre-coalition Nick Clegg), rather than Tim Farron.

It makes you wonder what might be going through his head. I jokingly said once that he lived in a virtually reality world streaming 1970's newsreels and episodes of Citizen Smith - I'm starting to believe I might have been right. I have friends who have been long-term Labour members who would hesitate to vote Labour right now.

I agree about the Lib Dems, they are in pole position to benefit from the current turmoil - but is Farron up to the job? - I suspect not.

[ProfessorDavey]

I agree about the Lib Dems, they are in pole position to benefit from the current turmoil - but is Farron up to the job? - I suspect not.

But they only have a choice of 9 possibles (their MPs) - one is already leader, one the former leader Clegg - so that leaves 7 alternatives, one of whom has been an MP for a week, so that leaves 6. Take your pick from:

Tom Brake
Alistair Carmichael
Norman Lamb
Greg Hulholland
John Pugh
Mark Williams

Note that Norman Lamb has a failed leadership bid behind him. They aren't blessed with choice.

[Hope]

What happened to the voice of the people?

They voted in a by-election, BoS.

[jakswan]

Problem being that Corbyn seems unmovable, on the basis that he won't go voluntarily and the membership won't kick him out.

I think Corbyn is where he wants to be, don't get the feeling he actually wants to win just lead the Labour party to the hard left. If he holds on gets centre left MPs deselected he will have won.

Given the appalling state we are in at the moment - in all sorts of ways - we desperately need, at the very least, a really effective opposition holding the government to account. And clearly that opposition should be representing the 48%, given that currently, with the exception of the LibDems, all the other parties in England seem to have caved into the the notion that the only people who matter are the 52%.

Its not that they think people don't matter its that they voted for the referendum and don't think it should be ignored. I also think Corbyn has voted against many EU bills so Labour apathy is to be expected given the views of the leader.

Shame too that the LibDems have such a lightweight leader - although it is interesting that even without a leader who really commands respect they seem to be doing pretty well currently. Think how they might be doing with a Paddy Ashdown or Charles Kennedy (or even a pre-coalition Nick Clegg), rather than Tim Farron.

Agree, I think LibDems could go from strength to strength, pity used to be a member but I disagree with them on Brexit.

[Aruntraveller]

I have friends who have been long-term Labour members who would hesitate to vote Labour right now.

It's certainly the position I find myself in.

[ProfessorDavey]

It's certainly the position I find myself in.

Likewise

[Sassy]

What happened to Labour?

It went away after the birth...   Well! you did ask...

[L.A.]

It's certainly the position I find myself in.

I honestly don't know how I would vote in the next election. My MP is currently Ken Clarke, a man who has generally represented my views on most issues over the years, but he is getting a bit 'long in the tooth' and recently lost his wife. He signalled that he won't be seeking re-election, so I'm guessing that Tory Central Office will parachute-in some bright-eyed Brexiteer. If this happens they will certainly not be getting my vote.

[jeremyp]

I honestly don't know how I would vote in the next election. My MP is currently Ken Clarke, a man who has generally represented my views on most issues over the years, but he is getting a bit 'long in the tooth' and recently lost his wife. He signalled that he won't be seeking re-election, so I'm guessing that Tory Central Office will parachute-in some bright-eyed Brexiteer. If this happens they will certainly not be getting my vote.

Next time is actually a lot easier for me, than recent elections, it'll be Lib Dem all the way for me.

[Hope]

I honestly don't know how I would vote in the next election. My MP is currently Ken Clarke, a man who has generally represented my views on most issues over the years, but he is getting a bit 'long in the tooth' and recently lost his wife. He signalled that he won't be seeking re-election, so I'm guessing that Tory Central Office will parachute-in some bright-eyed Brexiteer. If this happens they will certainly not be getting my vote.

Will there be such things as Brexiteers by 2020?  Even if there is a snap election next year, might they not parachute-in some bright-eyed pro-European, especially if your constituency voted to Remain back in June?

[Hope]

Next time is actually a lot easier for me, than recent elections, it'll be Lib Dem all the way for me.

I wish it were that simple here.  I voted for the Lib Dems in 2010, and was happy for them to go into coalition - was sad that Labour didn't feel that they could do the same in view of the situation at the time.  Unfortunately, the one Lib Dem AM decided to join Labour following the recent Welsh Government election, which means that a failing government has managed to remain in power, despite being deserted by many of their more traditional voters.  Loathe to vote Plaid, because they did much the same back in 2007.  Can't vote Tory and my party of choice - the Greens - doesn't always have a candidate in the constituency.

[L.A.]

Will there be such things as Brexiteers by 2020?  Even if there is a snap election next year, might they not parachute-in some bright-eyed pro-European, especially if your constituency voted to Remain back in June?

It seems to me that Brexit will be at the centre of UK politics long after 2020. If there was a snap election next year I would only consider voting Tory if the candidate was a local person or had local connections - AND a similar political position to Ken i.e. not extreme right and not a Brexiteer.

[Hope]

It seems to me that Brexit will be at the centre of UK politics long after 2020. If there was a snap election next year I would only consider voting Tory if the candidate was a local person or had local connections - AND a similar political position to Ken i.e. not extreme right and not a Brexiteer.

But if Article 50 is traiggered by the end of March 2017, as TM suggests it will, we will have had to have withrawn by March 2019 (or voted against withdrawing in a second referendum).  I accept that the fall-out from Brexit will carry on for a further 10, 15 perhaps even 20 years, but the deed will have been done (or 'un'done) by May 2020.

[L.A.]

But if Article 50 is traiggered by the end of March 2017, as TM suggests it will, we will have had to have withrawn by March 2019 (or voted against withdrawing in a second referendum).  I accept that the fall-out from Brexit will carry on for a further 10, 15 perhaps even 20 years, but the deed will have been done (or 'un'done) by May 2020.

The negotiations will not even have started by end of March 2017 so all the more reason not to elect any more loonies.

[Hope]

The negotiations will not even have started by end of March 2017 so all the more reason not to elect any more loonies.

Precisely - which is what all this stuff in the Supreme Court is all about - but if said article is triggered as per TM's timetable, all the motions that follow from that should be done and dusted by Spring 2019.  If Ken Clarke stands down at the next election - potentially not until May 2020, the concept of Brexiteers/Remainers will be somewhat redundant.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

Precisely - which is what all this stuff in the Supreme Court is all about - but if said article is triggered as per TM's timetable, all the motions that follow from that should be done and dusted by Spring 2019.  If Ken Clarke stands down at the next election - potentially not until May 2020, the concept of Brexiteers/Remainers will be somewhat redundant.

Only if it goes well.
If not the categories will be those that blame remainers for things going wrong although it's their own fault......and remainers.