Disaster for Labour, and what now is the point of UKIP?

[Nearly Sane]

The by elections last night gave showed a couple of things. 1 Labour will lose the next election, even without the boundary rejig. With it they will be decimated many times over.

2. There isn't really a point to UKIP any more. If they couldn't win Stoke, where will they win, but more importantly why will they win? Their raison d'etre has gone, subsumed by May and events. They have little other than a ragbag of constantly changing policies with no coherence.


I, for one, am unsure of our new Tory leaders.

[Aruntraveller]

Unsure. Unsure?

I'm quite sure that they haven't got a clue as they sit protected by their wealth pretending concern for ordinary people all the while selling them down the river of expediency.

No good will come of this situation.

[Nearly Sane]

I was using the phrase to echo hollowly the famous one from the Simpsons. It looks certain currently that it will be a Tory govt now for the next 15 years at least. I know that a week is a onf time on politics but....

[Rhiannon]

Labour needs to take a long look at itself and ask how the fuck the Tories appear to be more plausibly in favour of the working people in some of their northern heartlands.

[Nearly Sane]

Indeed, but one of the ways is the newly elected MP opposing Tory policy on the local NHS issues. I suspect that the current opposition is the SNP and parts of the Tory party. Not sure currently if there is a point to Labour

[Nearly Sane]

Spot on from the Mash. Quite extraordinary that one of the four most successful politicians in the UK in the last 40 years, IMO, has list 7 attempts to be elected an MP



http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/who-needs-mps-says-ukip-20170224122753

[JP]

Unsure. Unsure?

I'm quite sure that they haven't got a clue as they sit protected by their wealth pretending concern for ordinary people all the while selling them down the river of expediency.

No good will come of this situation.

Ditto Labour

[Nearly Sane]

Ditto Labour

That's an irrelevant tu quoque and just as irrelevant as the Labour party currently

[wigginhall]

Labour supporters (of which I am a luke-warm version), will just have to wait now, to see what ensues.   It seems unpredictable to me, except losing the next election.    I went through the despair thing when the right-wing rebelled against Corbyn, but I've got through that.   Mrs May is on a roll, but I doubt if it will last.

[Nearly Sane]

It doesn't really need to last. It could all go horribly wrong for May but no one is in a position in the UK to puck up enough support and if the boundary changes happen the next Tory majority could be colossal. That said the one chance of the changes not happening is if there is rebellion in the Tory party from MPs who will lose their seat and have to enter the fox run with the reduction in seats.

[wigginhall]

A lot depends on Brexit.  I think Mrs May will be able to use smoke and mirrors for quite a period, but then it depends on whether the customs regulations can be squared up, quite a feat really, once we are a 'third country'.    I know the right wing are talking about importing EU regulations (hence, convergence), but what happens when we start to diverge?   Will our mythical truck, driving from Slovakia to Manchester, continue to pass borders 'frictionlessly'?   Somebody told me the queue over the Russian border is about 3 days.   Nobody knows.

[Nearly Sane]

But the problem with the idea of Brexit going tits up is who gets thed votesd. The Labour Party's position supporting Brexit is problematic, UKIP won't get it, and the Lid Dems start from too low a position.

[wigginhall]

But the problem with the idea of Brexit going tits up is who gets thed votesd. The Labour Party's position supporting Brexit is problematic, UKIP won't get it, and the Lid Dems start from too low a position.

Yes, it's unpredictable.  I notice that Starmer has been sounding competent, but oh so dull, and Labour have quite a problem with the next leader.   I think they will start to backtrack if there  are 3 days queues in Dover and elsewhere, and the veg are rotting in the fields.  But then that won't happen,  as immigration is going to continue!  I suspect that May will have a soft Brexit, but describe it in hard terms. 

[Aruntraveller]

I was using the phrase to echo hollowly the famous one from the Simpsons. It looks certain currently that it will be a Tory govt now for the next 15 years at least. I know that a week is a onf time on politics but....

Ah I see. Not being a devotee of The Simpsons I failed to pick up on that.

[Nearly Sane]

Ah I see. Not being a devotee of The Simpsons I failed to pick up on that.

See here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lcUHQYhPTE

[Nearly Sane]

I think this is good on why getting rid of Corbyn is not a magic bullet. I think the writer is naive about what will work but they are right that currently the Labour Party appears to be pointless


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-copeland-defeat-by-election-stoke-ukip-tory-conservative-victory-problem-a7597141.html

[Aruntraveller]

I think this is good on why getting rid of Corbyn is not a magic bullet. I think the writer is naive about what will work but they are right that currently the Labour Party appears to be pointless


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-copeland-defeat-by-election-stoke-ukip-tory-conservative-victory-problem-a7597141.html

Hmmm....in effect the article seems to be arguing for something that is being discussed elsewhere on R & E - namely more certainty. More strident certainty.

Who will save us from all this certainty?

Steve Bannon maybe ?

We are all well and truly stuffed.

[Nearly Sane]

I don't think it is more certainty just an expression of aims.

[wigginhall]

I think this is good on why getting rid of Corbyn is not a magic bullet. I think the writer is naive about what will work but they are right that currently the Labour Party appears to be pointless


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-copeland-defeat-by-election-stoke-ukip-tory-conservative-victory-problem-a7597141.html

Not a bad article.  I agree that Corbyn is not really the problem.   Well, obviously Labour has lost its way, but it did that under Blair, who triangulated successfully, but left the Labour rank and file as a pointless addendum.    Getting over Blair is proving very tough then.   Their best hope is the electoral cycle, during which both main parties are periodically written off as unelectable.   But Brexit complicates everything, and will presumably be a mess for at least ten years.   

[Nearly Sane]

Not a bad article.  I agree that Corbyn is not really the problem.   Well, obviously Labour has lost its way, but it did that under Blair, who triangulated successfully, but left the Labour rank and file as a pointless addendum.    Getting over Blair is proving very tough then.   Their best hope is the electoral cycle, during which both main parties are periodically written off as unelectable.   But Brexit complicates everything, and will presumably be a mess for at least ten years.   

Agreed. The meltdown in Scotland has also affected them in a way that it will be difficult to get back from. Yes, they did win in England as well when in govt, mostly, but it looks so much harder now. The loss in Copeland might be put down to the nuclear power issue, though I think that underlines the confusion people have, and to the Tory candidate opposing Tory policy on the NHS locally, but it's been Labour for 80 years.


To expand on my reply to Trent, I think the whole nuclear issue shows why policy isn't clear rather than pragmatic and admitting of uncertainty. It's not that JC is saying, let's look at nuclear power. He is opposed to it but the party  isn't. That's not about looking at the issue and saying 'let's do a full investigation of safety of nuclear plants and formulate policy on the badius of that and fit it into an overall energy policy'. It's just confusion

[JP]

How many times has labour lost its way. Devaluing the pound in the sixties, IMF loan in the seventies, mass immigration and quadrupling of house prices in the noughties.

Corbyn isn't the problem, Labour is.

[wigginhall]

Agreed. The meltdown in Scotland has also affected them in a way that it will be difficult to get back from. Yes, they did win in England as well when in govt, mostly, but it looks so much harder now. The loss in Copeland might be put down to the nuclear power issue, though I think that underlines the confusion people have, and to the Tory candidate opposing Tory policy on the NHS locally, but it's been Labour for 80 years.


To expand on my reply to Trent, I think the whole nuclear issue shows why policy isn't clear rather than pragmatic and admitting of uncertainty. It's not that JC is saying, let's look at nuclear power. He is opposed to it but the party  isn't. That's not about looking at the issue and saying 'let's do a full investigation of safety of nuclear plants and formulate policy on the badius of that and fit it into an overall energy policy'. It's just confusion

Yes, massive confusion.  I think the historical ambiguity in Labour - founded by the unions to protect the 'working man' - but attracting middle class votes, periodically helps them (as with Blair who was able to get votes from both), and wrecks them, as one wing or the other gets fed up. 

At the moment, it looks as if everybody is fed up!  And Brexit is confusing things even more.    But as I said, I think the electoral cycle may come to their aid in the end.   Mrs May is sweeping all before her, but will it last? 

[Aruntraveller]

How many times has labour lost its way. Devaluing the pound in the sixties, IMF loan in the seventies, mass immigration and quadrupling of house prices in the noughties.

Corbyn isn't the problem, Labour is.

The common perception that Labour was rubbish at managing the economy is just that.

http://www.primeeconomics.org/articles/taq30tk04ljnvpyfos059pp0w7gnpe

As to mass immigration, why I believe a certain David Davies thinks it will continue even after Brexit.  Those promises of take back control, £350milllion for the NHS, all to come to nothing.

http://newsthump.com/2017/02/24/last-person-who-still-believed-350m-eu-nhs-claim-finally-realises/

[wigginhall]

Surely, we will be taking back control, as instead of accepting customs regulations from the EU, we will be importing them into British law, and then, well, following EU regulations, because we want to. 

[Nearly Sane]

How many times has labour lost its way. Devaluing the pound in the sixties, IMF loan in the seventies, mass immigration and quadrupling of house prices in the noughties.

Corbyn isn't the problem, Labour is.

what policy of Labour's specifically, I.e. not one that other parties supported, led to the quadrupling of house prices?