Disaster for Labour, and what now is the point of UKIP?

[Nearly Sane]

Surely, we will be taking back control, as instead of accepting customs regulations from the EU, we will be importing them into British law, and then, well, following EU regulations, because we want to.

Cue Billie


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_XI_290cfw

[Aruntraveller]

Oh my goodness. I wasn't aware of BP's foray into pop music. I now have you to thank NS.

I will find a way to repay this extraordinary gesture of sharing.

[Nearly Sane]

Prof John Curtice, psephologist to the stats


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/24/stoke-copeland-labour-remain-richmond-copeland-ukip

[ProfessorDavey]

Prof John Curtice, psephologist to the stats


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/24/stoke-copeland-labour-remain-richmond-copeland-ukip

He is quite right that Labour should focus very clearly on remain voters - their attempt to court leavers is bonkers.

Firstly overwhelmingly Labour voters voted remain so they are effectively turning their back on their own support but suddenly becoming Brexiteers. Secondly the Brexit space and battle for votes is already crowded and Labour will lose out. We have Tories, UKIP and Labour all now fishing for the 52%, but Labour aren't credibly - they will always lose out to UKIP, who have been campaigning for Brexit for ever, and the Tories, who were always more genuinely sceptical and are now in charge of the actual process. Labour come a poor third in that company.

But there is wide open space for the 48% of voters (disproportionately of whom were already Labour). That is where the electoral gains lie.

[Nearly Sane]

He is quite right that Labour should focus very clearly on remain voters - their attempt to court leavers is bonkers.

Firstly overwhelmingly Labour voters voted remain so they are effectively turning their back on their own support but suddenly becoming Brexiteers. Secondly the Brexit space and battle for votes is already crowded and Labour will lose out. We have Tories, UKIP and Labour all now fishing for the 52%, but Labour aren't credibly - they will always lose out to UKIP, who have been campaigning for Brexit for ever, and the Tories, who were always more genuinely sceptical and are now in charge of the actual process. Labour come a poor third in that company.

But there is wide open space for the 48% of voters (disproportionately of whom were already Labour). That is where the electoral gains lie.

I pretty much agree but surely Labour should do the thing it thinks is right, not the thing that is simply about getting some votes?

[ProfessorDavey]

I pretty much agree but surely Labour should do the thing it thinks is right, not the thing that is simply about getting some votes?

But isn't that exactly what it is currently doing in a wrong-headed manner - being a sudden convert to Brexit when the vast majority of its MPs, activists etc were fervently remain. I don't believe they have changed their minds at all on whether brexit is right - I think they have been lead to believe that continuing to fight for an alternative view will lose them votes. That is non-sense - there are 16 million voters looking for a party that believes what they believe and could (with a different leader) actually deliver change.

[Nearly Sane]

But isn't that exactly what it is currently doing in a wrong-headed manner - being a sudden convert to Brexit when the vast majority of its MPs, activists etc were fervently remain. I don't believe they have changed their minds at all on whether brexit is right - I think they have been lead to believe that continuing to fight for an alternative view will lose them votes. That is non-sense - there are 16 million voters looking for a party that believes what they believe and could (with a different leader) actually deliver change.

Is it! And  how is any of the above an answer to what I asked? Are you honestly saying that what you think a party should do is lie about what it thinks is right?

[Jack Knave]

I was using the phrase to echo hollowly the famous one from the Simpsons. It looks certain currently that it will be a Tory govt now for the next 15 years at least. I know that a week is a onf time on politics but....

Sadly many of the voters, including traditional Labour voters, think that May is doing a good job with the Brexit issue. They forget that the Tories don't bother with the north and tend to focus on big business not communities.

As for UKIP they pretty much had an open goal, or at least very few defenders to deal with and they missed - a bit like Leicester this season.

Labour? Pretty much fucked, especially if that Corbyn fellow stays as leader.

[Nearly Sane]

Sadly many of the voters, including traditional Labour voters, think that May is doing a good job with the Brexit issue. They forget that the Tories don't bother with the north and tend to focus on big business not communities.

As for UKIP they pretty much had an open goal, or at least very few defenders to deal with and they missed - a bit like Leicester this season.

Labour? Pretty much fucked, especially if that Corbyn fellow stays as leader.

Other than not being sure what a good job on Brexit is, especially for Labour voters who were 2 to 1 against Brexit, I agree

[floo]

With Corbyn as leader Labour is not likely to do well, he seems to lack what it takes to enthuse people.

[ProfessorDavey]

Is it! And  how is any of the above an answer to what I asked? Are you honestly saying that what you think a party should do is lie about what it thinks is right?

Quite the reverse - I think that is what they currently are doing. I simply don't believe that most Labour MPs believe that Brexit is the right thing to do. They didn't before the referendum, and I don't believe they do now. And the electorate aren't dumb - they can spot a fake a mile off - and that includes MPs who appear to have a road to Damascus about turn in their views on the EU, when it is quite apparent that they haven't, and that they still believe that remaining in the EU is the right thing to do.

[Jack Knave]

But isn't that exactly what it is currently doing in a wrong-headed manner - being a sudden convert to Brexit when the vast majority of its MPs, activists etc were fervently remain. I don't believe they have changed their minds at all on whether brexit is right - I think they have been lead to believe that continuing to fight for an alternative view will lose them votes. That is non-sense - there are 16 million voters looking for a party that believes what they believe and could (with a different leader) actually deliver change.

But trying to turn back the clock on Brexit would be suicide. It would indicate that you didn't respect democracy or the peoples views.

[Gordon]

But trying to turn back the clock on Brexit would be suicide. It would indicate that you didn't respect democracy or the peoples views.

I think we should turn back the clock on Brexit so as to avert the on coming disaster: that said, if Brexit is unavoidable it should secure the independence of Scotland.

[Jack Knave]

Other than not being sure what a good job on Brexit is, especially for Labour voters who were 2 to 1 against Brexit, I agree

Yes, but now the country has spoken on the issue many are saying get on with it, and find those who are trying to frustrate the whole process just pedantic and annoying. Plus there are other issues that people are concerned about which Labour seem to be totally lost on in terms of giving a clear unanimous voice to.

[Nearly Sane]

Quite the reverse - I think that is what they currently are doing. I simply don't believe that most Labour MPs believe that Brexit is the right thing to do. They didn't before the referendum, and I don't believe they do now. And the electorate aren't dumb - they can spot a fake a mile off - and that includes MPs who appear to have a road to Damascus about turn in their views on the EU, when it is quite apparent that they haven't, and that they still believe that remaining in the EU is the right thing to do.

that is a different thing, if you want to say they should say what they believe great but you appeared to be suggesting that they  should choose the position because it might win.

[Nearly Sane]

Yes, but now the country has spoken on the issue many are saying get on with it, and find those who are trying to frustrate the whole process just pedantic and annoying. Plus there are other issues that people are concerned about which Labour seem to be totally lost on in terms of giving a clear unanimous voice to.

first sentence is an assertion. Second is irrelevant to the first sentence.

[ProfessorDavey]

that is a different thing, if you want to say they should say what they believe great but you appeared to be suggesting that they  should choose the position because it might win.

But if saying what they think also is a smart strategy to win votes then why not.

Currently I think they are on a hiding to nothing - the worst of all worlds - unconvincingly trying to portray a position they don't (or most MPs don't) believe in, which isn't actually attractive to those voters who might be persuaded to vote for them.

[Jack Knave]

I think we should turn back the clock on Brexit so as to avert the on coming disaster: that said, if Brexit is unavoidable it should secure the independence of Scotland.

What disaster? Who's crystal ball are you looking at. 

This is the problem with all those crying over Brexit. They assume it will cause a disaster and take that to mean it will and then work from there to give out their apoplectic version of throwing their toys out of their pram.

[ProfessorDavey]

Yes, but now the country has spoken on the issue many are saying get on with it, and find those who are trying to frustrate the whole process just pedantic and annoying.

Tough - those who continue to think that Brexit is bad for the UK have every right to say so, regardless of whether you think them pedantic and annoying.

And whatever your basic views it is much more important to get any Brexit settlement right, rather than to do it quickly. And if that means scrutiny and people asking awkward questions and expecting answers, so be it.

[Jack Knave]

first sentence is an assertion. Second is irrelevant to the first sentence.

All of that is an assertion, and most of your posts are as well. What's your point?

[Nearly Sane]

But if saying what they think also is a smart strategy to win votes then why not.

Currently I think they are on a hiding to nothing - the worst of all worlds - unconvincingly trying to portray a position they don't (or most MPs don't) believe in, which isn't actually attractive to those voters who might be persuaded to vote for them.

what do they think?

[Jack Knave]

But if saying what they think also is a smart strategy to win votes then why not.

Currently I think they are on a hiding to nothing - the worst of all worlds - unconvincingly trying to portray a position they don't (or most MPs don't) believe in, which isn't actually attractive to those voters who might be persuaded to vote for them.

But that is what Blair did. That's one thing Corbyn didn't like about New Labour. This is also what the people are fed up with. What Corbyn has found out is that being at the top of a political party is different to being someone on the side lines promoting a movements agenda.

[Nearly Sane]

All of that is an assertion, and most of your posts are as well. What's your point?

Made my point. Love your evasion, my yellow buttercup!

[Jack Knave]

Tough - those who continue to think that Brexit is bad for the UK have every right to say so, regardless of whether you think them pedantic and annoying.

And whatever your basic views it is much more important to get any Brexit settlement right, rather than to do it quickly. And if that means scrutiny and people asking awkward questions and expecting answers, so be it.

They can say what they like but what they can't do is try to reverse it. Which is what their version of right is.

[Jack Knave]

Made my point. Love your evasion, my yellow buttercup!

Try writing English and making sense some time?