2nd Indy Referendum?

[Gordon]

There is an argument that tying the brexit and independence issues  is a mistake.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/779229/double-blow-Nicola-Sturgeon-humiliation-public-support-Scotland-EU

How much of that is wishful thinking, I'm not sure.

Is there a lot of anti EU feeling amongst Scots who voted for independence? Enough to sway the vote to a decisive vote to stay in the UK?

I'm not sure, Julie, that the Daily Express is a good source of Scottish opinion given the political bias of that newspaper.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Forum,

Well here we are again, round two, ding ding!! seconds out

So am I better informed this time around, well yes I think I am a wee bit more savvy, Brexit has been a real eye opener, the country voted to jump without knowing what the consequences would be and this was one of the reasons I voted no last time, there was no plan.

In the last Scottish Referendum the SNP wanted us to vote yes but with no plan of what would happen next, the exact same as Brexit, we have now voted to leave the EU but with no plan, we still have no plan ( a Spike Milligan sketch comes to mind ) well except it is going to be a hard Brexit whatever a hard Brexit means.

But all the old questions still remain, border control, currency ( I think we should adopt the quid currency, Kevin Bridges "aye pal you'll get yer money right!! ) and lets not forget Trident, please!! Don't forget Trident because you can bet your last quid that Trident will rear its ugly head again ( actually I think it already has ).

Well dear readers this time around I am adopting a different tack, I am looking for the bottom line ( yes I am a bottom line man ) and that is, can I look at future generations and hold my head high.

Right now my conscience is saying vote YES and one of the main reasons is, the Tories are, well lets be polite for the moment and say wonderful magicians, there smoke and mirror display is second to none but if I thought for a second that Mr Corbyn had any chance I might just change my vote, and just for the record, I don't want a Tory lite Labour party, it is the Corbyn way or the highway.

Goodbye England, Wales and Northern Ireland we can meet at the border and discuss old times over a dram or twa.

To end, I will be watching with interest as the EU question is debated, Sturgeon will make this a big issue, but I honestly don't know if I want to be tied to the EU, well not the old EU, maybe if I can see any sign of the EU reforming itself then yes lets be friends with our pals on the continent, but that raises another question, do they like our whisky, maybe we should be cuddling up to the Japanese, they like a wee dram

Gonnagle.

[Anchorman]

Gonners; It gives me no satisfaction to see the state of Scottish Labour - none whatsoever. As you know, I live in an area which was fed Labour with its' mother's milk - Kier Hardie country - heck, some still bow when they pass the bust of him outside Cumnock town Hall - and that is not an exaggeration. The cracks in the building that was SLAB started in the 'eighties, when folk started to see that, no matter how often they put that 'x' in the box for Labour, what they got was Thatcher. Remember when Labour was called a 'one party state' simply because there was no credable opposition to it in these parts? That wasn't healthy situation - niether is the present one, but I'll get to that. When we are faced with decades stretching in front of us when governments we reject election after election determine much of our macro-economic, welfare, defence and foriegn policy, then the frustration will simply build again - I see it coming. Last time that frustration ended in a double YES for a devolved parliament which Labour thought would guarantee their supremacy in Scotland - and we know how THAT worked out. Now, with the in-fighting in SLAB which began after Donald Dewar's untimely death, and has never really ceased, we see a Labour party in a rather pathetic third place in Scotland, and die hard Labour voters actually voting Tory to keep the independence wolf at bay - anpother symptom of Labour decay. Yes, in many ways, SNP has taken Labour's place - though I know that will change should independence happen. SNP will fragment into three or four parties, ranging from hard left to moderate right in outlook. Don't think that an independence vote guarantees an SNP government. What it DOES guarantee is that, for better or worse, Scotland will be governed by those we elect, and there will be no-one to blame but ourselves - and I think that's quite a healthy position to adopt.

[Nearly Sane]

There is an argument that tying the brexit and independence issues  is a mistake.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/779229/double-blow-Nicola-Sturgeon-humiliation-public-support-Scotland-EU

How much of that is wishful thinking, I'm not sure.

Is there a lot of anti EU feeling amongst Scots who voted for independence? Enough to sway the vote to a decisive vote to stay in the UK?

Mmm an opinion piece in the Express is effectively propaganda BUT I would guess maybe a third of independence supporters are anti EU. Note I didn't say 'voted for independence' because some didn't vote for independence last time because they are anti EU. There isn't though a mistake in tying independence and Brexit because that they are tied is a simple matter of fact. As the Alex Massie article I linked to covers, this is not the time and place and reason that the SNP or the Tories would seek to have chosen. But sometimes politics is not about choice, it's about what you so when there are no choices.

Yesterday was a confusing day with polls but my guess is that with the current situation it would be a pretty similar result to last time with a lower turn out, but with a fair degree of churn between zyes voters going to No, and vice versa. That said if Brexit starts to go tits up, or some unknown unknown hits, who can tell. If I were Theresa May, I would say ' Go for it' as quickly as possible. Delaying it, or saying no, will not play well and opens up all sorts of other battles. Indeed, I might suggest that she says to the SNP that she us happy to work with them in tying it to a specific point in the Brexit negotiations. That way she would stall any Take Back Control campaign and be seen to be being Prime Ministerial.  However, because there are those on her own side who would think that is weakness, it's never going to happen.

[Gonnagle]

Dear Jim,

No arguments from me old son, if we do gain Independence then I will not vote SNP, I can only hope that a credible Scottish Labour party can be formed ( without Dugdale ).

But you are right, I think we are stuck with Tory rule for decades to come, so here in Scotland we have a real choice ( they also have a choice down south, but the majority seem to wedded to their wallets ) decades of Tory rule or a new fresh start and hopefully one based on compassion.

I am going to stick to my bottom line will future generations look back with pride or anger, I will vote YES and hope that is the right and compassionate thing to do.

Gonnagle.

[Nearly Sane]

Just to pick up on Gonzo's point about plans, there is an element of chicken and egg here. To have a detailed plan, you have to have had the negotiations, to have the negotiations you have to have had the vote, hence why the Lib Dem policy of a second referendum on Brexit is a perfectly rational one. Problem with that, of course, is that it's politically unfeasible because what happens if the second referendum rejects the plan. Plus in the present 'will of the people' frenzy anyone who suggests such will be vilified by one side or another. I note that the Telegraph ran an op ed piece from Allison Pearson calling Nicola a liar and a traitor and calling for her head to be chopped off. Hyperbole, yes, but in the current climate badly advised I would suggest. We got through the last referendum with only the one murdered MP, but that is surely not a record to be proud of.

The added complexity here is Ireland, because many if the issues that might arise for an independent Scotland in the EU will be played out on the border between the Republic and North. Worse this could be against a back drop of direct rule, if the parties fail to get to an agreement, and that will fuel unification sentiment.

The people doing best here are the political pundits who are in demand to write pieces from all quarters.

[Nearly Sane]

Dear Jim,

No arguments from me old son, if we do gain Independence then I will not vote SNP, I can only hope that a credible Scottish Labour party can be formed ( without Dugdale ).

But you are right, I think we are stuck with Tory rule for decades to come, so here in Scotland we have a real choice ( they also have a choice down south, but the majority seem to wedded to their wallets ) decades of Tory rule or a new fresh start and hopefully one based on compassion.

I am going to stick to my bottom line will future generations look back with pride or anger, I will vote YES and hope that is the right and compassionate thing to do.

Gonnagle.

As ever, Gonzo, bravo! Your compassion and honesty are as bracing as a Lagavulin. To pick up on Anchorman's point, it isn't just Labour voters going Tory, there is a concerted campaign in the council elections to tactically vote, and if councils have no overall majority, we will see a number of Lab - Con coalitions, not on the basis of the council policies but to keep the SNP out. To be fair were this purely on the basis of shared unionism, you might almost understand it but it's effectively little more than tribal hatred from Labour, that they have lost what they once ruled.


On a quick aside, I don't think Kez is that bad. Wrong place, wrong time for her. The party had been shafted by others before her, and while I think she isn't up to being leader, I doubt a combination of Julius Caesar, Gandhi, and Mandela could do much with SLab at the moment.

[jakswan]

So the argument is a political one, the Scottish political compass is materially different to that of rUK.

It isn't but good ole tribalism trumps rationality.

[Nearly Sane]

So the argument is a political one, the Scottish political compass is materially different to that of rUK.

It isn't but good ole tribalism trumps rationality.

In terms of how it plays out at the ballot box currently, factually correct. In terms of actual differences, nothing that might not change. But in terms of marrying responsibility and power, certainly.

Rationality only plays when you decide what you want. The idea that any vote can be based on rationality alone is deeply irrational.

[wigginhall]

I see that the economist Wren-Lewis has switched to support for independence.   No doubt some of his comments will be vigorously challenged, e.g. a 10% drop in incomes after Brexit, Scotland could attract foreign investment in the single market, the cuts to services will become savage under the Tories, and so on.  But I guess that for independence supporters, these ideas are not really new.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/brexit-makes-economics-of-scottish.html?m=1

[Jack Knave]

By what it said. Pointing out the lazy generalisation and use of fallacies in your 'sensible' post.

That's just an assertion. What's your argument for it?

[Jack Knave]

lovely non sequitur, not as good as Alan Burns or Vlad but still classily wrong

That's just an assertion. What's your argument for it?

[Jack Knave]

Done about what?

My post was for Anchorman, so he could say what he expected an independent Scotland would do with their "freedom" which they reckon they aren't getting from Westminster at present.

[Nearly Sane]

That's just an assertion. What's your argument for it?

The Jack Knave bot is broken!!! Send for the engineer. It has becaone stuck in a loop.

[Jack Knave]

actually they could use the pound - to prove tell what currency the Swedes are using?

The Euro has a history, you can look at it on the internet. It has graphs!!!!

Why are you arguing a neo liberalism globalist line on independence?

You need to put more flesh on those bones, NS, I don't know what you are talking about.

[Jack Knave]

Sweden has its own currency, it's not using the pound.

The arguments for and against Scotland using the pound are exactly the same as they were before. Scotland could use the pound but it would have to submit to UK monetary and fiscal policy.

It also could NOT start the process of joining the Euro. It needs its own currency for that.

[Nearly Sane]

You need to put more flesh on those bones, NS, I don't know what you are talking about.

Well I am happy to go into detail but tgatbwoukd require the same from you,so no more of your one liners but properly detailed. You see, I thought that given I am expected to deal with your posting style that you would be capable of something similar.

[Jack Knave]

I was commenting on the need to use the Euro, not that I am opposed to it.  Only that, Sweden shows you don't have to do that, especially in the short term.  The countries in the euro don't follow the same fiscal and monetary polucy .

Sweden has its own currency, what are you blathering on about?

[Nearly Sane]

Sweden has its own currency, what are you blathering on about?

Which means that joining the EU doesn't necessitate joining the Euro, not that I'm opposed to that. It's all in the post you replied to.

[Jack Knave]

United we stand divided we fall. Scotland would be making a big mistake to leave the Union, imo, even though this Brexit business is crazy nonsense.

You are right about in that, "United we stand divided we fall." But as the people are divided i.e. the class war of the elitist against the people, we are all doomed to fall now.

[Jack Knave]

This is patently untrue. Much smaller countries than Scotland do function perfectly well.

I think it is quite likely that living standards would fall in Scotland - but hey they are going to do that under BREXIT anyway.

One of the issues is the trading position of Scotland which does some 44% of it's trade with the rest of the UK as opposed to some 10% with the EU. So any advantage that may be gained by somehow managing to get into the EU (difficult as highlighted elsewhere because of the Spanish problem with Catalonia) could well be offset by any deal arrived at with rUK.

All very complex and living standards cannot be the sole criteria that a decision is based on - there is the emotional aspect, nationalism and much else to consider.

So duplicitous.

[Jack Knave]

I think given the clear encouragement from Verhofstadt that thus idea if difficulty of entry into the EU on the basis of Spain is highly questionable. Many of the EU states are ones that come from previous larger states.


Also if I do vote yes, it is because I believe in getting power to the appropriate levels, and to having a clear link between power and responsibility. Not for emotion or nationalism.

That makes you pro Brexit!!!

[Jack Knave]

There is an argument that tying the brexit and independence issues  is a mistake.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/779229/double-blow-Nicola-Sturgeon-humiliation-public-support-Scotland-EU

How much of that is wishful thinking, I'm not sure.

Is there a lot of anti EU feeling amongst Scots who voted for independence? Enough to sway the vote to a decisive vote to stay in the UK?

Making membership of the EU complicates the vote. The ex-SNP leader (I forget his name ) doesn't want Scotland to join the EU. So it looks as if it is going to be a very messy fight.

[Nearly Sane]

Making membership of the EU complicates the vote. The ex-SNP leader (I forget his name ) doesn't want Scotland to join the EU. So it looks as if it is going to be a very messy fight.

that would be Gordon Wilson from thirty plus years ago. The SNP have campaigned on membership in Europe for thirty years.

[Jack Knave]

Gonners; It gives me no satisfaction to see the state of Scottish Labour - none whatsoever. As you know, I live in an area which was fed Labour with its' mother's milk - Kier Hardie country - heck, some still bow when they pass the bust of him outside Cumnock town Hall - and that is not an exaggeration. The cracks in the building that was SLAB started in the 'eighties, when folk started to see that, no matter how often they put that 'x' in the box for Labour, what they got was Thatcher. Remember when Labour was called a 'one party state' simply because there was no credable opposition to it in these parts? That wasn't healthy situation - niether is the present one, but I'll get to that. When we are faced with decades stretching in front of us when governments we reject election after election determine much of our macro-economic, welfare, defence and foriegn policy, then the frustration will simply build again - I see it coming. Last time that frustration ended in a double YES for a devolved parliament which Labour thought would guarantee their supremacy in Scotland - and we know how THAT worked out. Now, with the in-fighting in SLAB which began after Donald Dewar's untimely death, and has never really ceased, we see a Labour party in a rather pathetic third place in Scotland, and die hard Labour voters actually voting Tory to keep the independence wolf at bay - anpother symptom of Labour decay. Yes, in many ways, SNP has taken Labour's place - though I know that will change should independence happen. SNP will fragment into three or four parties, ranging from hard left to moderate right in outlook. Don't think that an independence vote guarantees an SNP government. What it DOES guarantee is that, for better or worse, Scotland will be governed by those we elect, and there will be no-one to blame but ourselves - and I think that's quite a healthy position to adopt.

So now you understand us Brexiteers.  We voted UKIP and got Brussels election after election. Ruled by those we didn't want!