Author Topic: 2nd Indy Referendum?  (Read 59793 times)

jakswan

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #550 on: December 20, 2019, 05:35:39 PM »
Problem with that, though, is that iif, as expected, most Labour seats in Scotland are wiped out, should he try to stymie the indyref, the SNP will simoply use it as an anti-Scottish recruiting policy frrom Westminster.
Failure to implement a secomd indyref on a rising tide of nationalist MPs simply destabilises the 'union' further.

I think all the unionist parties will say no until we are out of EU, not a thing SNP can do about it.
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Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #551 on: December 20, 2019, 07:42:11 PM »
I think all the unionist parties will say no until we are out of EU, not a thing SNP can do about it.
   


Numerically, no.
But the YES movemebnt was relaunched last year, and umbrella groups such as All under one banner attract more and more with each event. There's abnother march planned for next month, and I wouldn't be surprised if it tops 100, 000 - scale that up to London levels and it would be over a million.
These gestures asdded to the continuing gievance factor here simply stoke the case.
All through the 1980s, the Tories vehemently opposed a second devolution referendum - and stood against devolution when the referendum was called in 1997.
The collective feeling of rebelling against a decade-long government Scotland did not elect, combined with a need for change, made the vote a shoe-in.
Unless Johnson is suddenly transformed into Mt Loveable here - and the chances of THAT are non-ex
istant - he might face a similar situation down the line.
The democratic deficit plays into the independence cause's hands, just as it did the devolutionists'.
"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

jakswan

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #552 on: December 21, 2019, 12:28:33 PM »
The democratic deficit plays into the independence cause's hands, just as it did the devolutionists'.

Definitely think opinion polls will shift, if SNP win in 2022 then the government will cave in.

By this time, Scotland will have to negotiate leaving the Union and applying to join the EU, resulting in support for independence collapsing.

Nicola will throw a tantrum, but Boris will just ignore her.   
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ekim

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jeremyp

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #554 on: January 29, 2020, 07:41:04 PM »
Definitely think opinion polls will shift, if SNP win in 2022 then the government will cave in.

By this time, Scotland will have to negotiate leaving the Union and applying to join the EU, resulting in support for independence collapsing.

Nicola will throw a tantrum, but Boris will just ignore her.

Yep. We have been a member of the EU for less than 50 years and the details on how we sever the relationship are a chaotic nightmare. Scotland has been part ofd the UK for over three hundred years. It's much more tightly integrated into the UK than the UK was into the EU. The negotiations will make the Brexit negotiations look like a mild spat.

It's never going to happen.
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Anchorman

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"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Gordon

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #556 on: July 19, 2020, 06:49:15 PM »
People of Scotland, lock up your fridges.... He's a-comin..... https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18592846.boris-johnson-visit-scotland-bid-save-union/?fbclid=IwAR1AZWmF7GOwptjX6KbwD9F-fwYxaf2Fm_XTSgVek60g_NyXTKOmc1uXIg8

Excellent news: a visit from Boris the Liar is bound to aid the 'cause' (and the 'cause' isn't the UK).

Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #557 on: July 19, 2020, 06:54:18 PM »
Excellent news: a visit from Boris the Liar is bound to aid the 'cause' (and the 'cause' isn't the UK).
   



Yep...
I can still remember Thatcher coming out of 'retirement' in 1997 to boost the NO/NO side in the devolution referendum.
After her bleating, the polls jumped from about 60% in favour of YES/YES, to nearer 70%....C'mon, Doris, bring it on.....
"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Gordon

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #558 on: July 20, 2020, 04:14:55 PM »
No doubt too his visit will be carefully stage-managed so that he only meets 'those and such as those' so that they can pretend he was well-received in Scotland.

Sadly, I doubt they'd let him risk going walkabout in, say, George Square or St Enoch's so as to allow him to interact freely with us friendly Glaswegians and obtain our thoughts on matters political.

Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #559 on: July 20, 2020, 05:06:25 PM »
No doubt too his visit will be carefully stage-managed so that he only meets 'those and such as those' so that they can pretend he was well-received in Scotland.

Sadly, I doubt they'd let him risk going walkabout in, say, George Square or St Enoch's so as to allow him to interact freely with us friendly Glaswegians and obtain our thoughts on matters political.
 


Blast.
Little prospect of the forceful relocation of a certain traffic cone in the near future, then.
"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Nearly Sane

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Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #561 on: September 16, 2020, 06:47:02 PM »
The Internal Markets Bill, in addition to breaking international law, is being argued to not just being a rollback of devolution, but a breach of the Act of Union. There is a lot of irritation amongst some Scottish independence supporters that Nicola is not makinv more of it.

Gordon

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #562 on: September 16, 2020, 09:21:14 PM »
The Internal Markets Bill, in addition to breaking international law, is being argued to not just being a rollback of devolution, but a breach of the Act of Union. There is a lot of irritation amongst some Scottish independence supporters that Nicola is not makinv more of it.

From what I've read, and I may not fully understand the detail, one part of this bill involves legal restrictions on challenges to it. Bearing in mind the the concerns in legal circles, hopefully the likes of Joanna Cherry will be looking at legal options before this bill gets passed, since the news this evening of a fudge to calm worried Tory MPs doesn't appear to resolve the breaking international law aspects.

The SNP need to do everything they can to frustrate this, as do the other non-Tory parties who have also expressed concerns.

Nearly Sane

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Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #564 on: September 16, 2020, 09:52:11 PM »
From what I've read, and I may not fully understand the detail, one part of this bill involves legal restrictions on challenges to it. Bearing in mind the the concerns in legal circles, hopefully the likes of Joanna Cherry will be looking at legal options before this bill gets passed, since the news this evening of a fudge to calm worried Tory MPs doesn't appear to resolve the breaking international law aspects.

The SNP need to do everything they can to frustrate this, as do the other non-Tory parties who have also expressed concerns.
   

Yes.
Let's use it as a further tool to weaken the union.
It seems to me the FM is managing things reasonably well - the latest survation poll puts indy at 55%; a record for that particular group - and the longest series of sustained polls favouring independence on record.
"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Aruntraveller

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Before we work on Artificial Intelligence shouldn't we address the problem of natural stupidity.

Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #566 on: October 14, 2020, 01:32:07 PM »

Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #567 on: October 14, 2020, 06:12:32 PM »
New independence poll 58 yes v 42 no


https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-scotland-idUSKBN26Z1KP
   


I don't recall a sustainned YES lead in so many polls. I think we can stop dismissing them as blips now.
"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #568 on: October 14, 2020, 06:29:16 PM »
   


I don't recall a sustainned YES lead in so many polls. I think we can stop dismissing them as blips now.
There has never been but in the end if the question cannot be asked, then it's pointless. There are deep dark waters before any referendum.


Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #569 on: October 14, 2020, 06:35:58 PM »
There has never been but in the end if the question cannot be asked, then it's pointless. There are deep dark waters before any referendum.


   


Agreed; however the polls seem to indicate another majority SNP government next year - assuming there ARE elections.
They also show the continuing slow death of Labour in Scotland ....which, though I don't support the present Labour leadership - well, in common with most of SLAB - saddens me.
"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #570 on: October 14, 2020, 06:45:05 PM »
   


Agreed; however the polls seem to indicate another majority SNP government next year - assuming there ARE elections.
They also show the continuing slow death of Labour in Scotland ....which, though I don't support the present Labour leadership - well, in common with most of SLAB - saddens me.
I think we haven't seen the fall out of the Salmond inquiry yet, and we are at a very different place with Covid than we were a month ago. There have been indications in the most recent polls that Labour may be picking up from an incredibly low base.

Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #571 on: October 14, 2020, 06:47:36 PM »
   


Agreed; however the polls seem to indicate another majority SNP government next year - assuming there ARE elections.
They also show the continuing slow death of Labour in Scotland ....which, though I don't support the present Labour leadership - well, in common with most of SLAB - saddens me.
By the way I take it you know about Paul Kavanagh's stroke?

https://www-tmp.thenational.scot/news/18790427.national-columnist-paul-kavanagh-wee-ginger-dug-suffers-stroke/

Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #572 on: October 14, 2020, 09:36:28 PM »
By the way I take it you know about Paul Kavanagh's stroke?

https://www-tmp.thenational.scot/news/18790427.national-columnist-paul-kavanagh-wee-ginger-dug-suffers-stroke/
   

Yes.
Last I heard, he was able to speak, which sounds hopeful.
"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Owlswing

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #573 on: October 15, 2020, 12:34:17 AM »

   I'm not sure how much of a derail this might be, but what chance do you (all Forum posters) think there is of Independence Referenda for Wales and Northern Ireland, should Scotland achieve
   Independence?

   In the case of Northern Ireland, how long do you think that an Independent Northern Ireland would remain independent before it was absorbed into a United Ireland? 
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Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #574 on: October 15, 2020, 04:09:59 AM »
   I'm not sure how much of a derail this might be, but what chance do you (all Forum posters) think there is of Independence Referenda for Wales and Northern Ireland, should Scotland achieve
   Independence?

   In the case of Northern Ireland, how long do you think that an Independent Northern Ireland would remain independent before it was absorbed into a United Ireland?
There is no chance of an independent NI, it's UK or UI. There is a chance that a UI could happen before Scottish independence.

Welsh independence is hugely unlikely