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Author Topic: 2nd Indy Referendum?  (Read 59831 times)

Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #575 on: October 15, 2020, 08:53:33 AM »
Quote from: Owlswing on October 15, 2020, 12:34:17 AM
   I'm not sure how much of a derail this might be, but what chance do you (all Forum posters) think there is of Independence Referenda for Wales and Northern Ireland, should Scotland achieve
   Independence?

   In the case of Northern Ireland, how long do you think that an Independent Northern Ireland would remain independent before it was absorbed into a United Ireland? 
     

NI's the problem for unionists both there and in Scotland.
Should Brexit prove the mess we think it will be, many, both unionists and nationalists in the province, will want closer connections with the Republic. A referendum might mean a face-saver state guaranteede by both Westminster and Dublin as a sop to the britishers in 'Ulster'....but that would be a very short term patch till reunification.
Meanwhile, there is a rather unsavory element of sectarians connected to Ulster in the West of Scotland, an element most folk treat with wary scepticism....untill they start marching with flute bands, then the opposition grows.
If they rear their head, both in support of Ulster' brits' and the Union, the support for independence in the West of Scotland will grow even further.
Incidentally, much of the Tory support in the West and Central belt of Scotland - such as it is - has little to do with policy, and more to do with the perception of the Tories as champions of the union.
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Owlswing

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #576 on: October 15, 2020, 01:22:32 PM »
Quote from: Nearly Sane on October 15, 2020, 04:09:59 AM

Welsh independence is hugely unlikely


Why so?
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Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #577 on: October 16, 2020, 08:44:40 AM »
Quote from: Owlswing on October 15, 2020, 01:22:32 PM
Why so?
Because since their high water mark in 1999, Plaid Cymru have fallen away rather than kicked on. The time was had the 2014 referendum in Scotland the SNP had been the govt for 7 years. The push for the second has been backed by further electoral successes way beyond the reach of Plaid.

That said there is record support in polling for Welsh independence but it is still below a third of the electorate.
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Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #578 on: October 16, 2020, 09:22:47 AM »
 There was a time when potential candidates were begging local party HQs for a hearing, since acceptance was a virtual guarantee of a job for life. Now this article shows the dire state of the Labour party in Scotland. https://www.thenational.scot/news/18797989.scottish-labour-cant-find-candidates-2021-holyrood-election/?ref=fbshr&fbclid=IwAR2o2_o_TR8wu90wP7bTplfBgs74soNDTBPQ6MpglpnVyeZZx-cX1wBOGkc
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Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #579 on: October 19, 2020, 09:18:36 AM »
Quote from: Nearly Sane on October 14, 2020, 06:47:36 PM
By the way I take it you know about Paul Kavanagh's stroke?

https://www-tmp.thenational.scot/news/18790427.national-columnist-paul-kavanagh-wee-ginger-dug-suffers-stroke/
   



It appears that the dug has his bark back.
options
options
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Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #580 on: October 20, 2020, 10:10:52 AM »
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Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #581 on: October 23, 2020, 12:23:52 PM »
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Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #582 on: October 30, 2020, 08:40:04 AM »
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Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #583 on: October 30, 2020, 10:57:40 AM »
Quote from: Anchorman on October 30, 2020, 08:40:04 AM
Interesting analysis of polling trend of 'swing' voters.
https://www.politico.eu/article/loathing-of-boris-johnson-fueling-surge-in-support-for-scottish-independence-poll/?fbclid=IwAR0TqUzyYF7Qo-xIjqWp93oCW0aBjo4ycquhB6IqmvtN3_LE5m699Lrk0i0

Yep, despite some in the independence movement seeing Nicola's ca' canny approach as too slow, it chimes with swing voters. I think the SNP need to carefully make the 2021 election enough about independence that it is seen as a clear mandate for another referendum.

That said it may be that the unionist parties may do their work for them.
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Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #584 on: October 30, 2020, 11:11:13 AM »
Quote from: Nearly Sane on October 30, 2020, 10:57:40 AM
Yep, despite some in the independence movement seeing Nicola's ca' canny approach as too slow, it chimes with swing voters. I think the SNP need to carefully make the 2021 election enough about independence that it is seen as a clear mandate for another referendum.

That said it may be that the unionist parties may do their work for them.
   


JI kind of agree with the article, in that Nicola, far from banging on about indy at the drop of a hat, has been pretty restrained - thus wrong footing the opposition, who seem heel bent in saying and doing everything in their power to further widen the gap between Scotland and the RUK.
Johnson, self styled 'minister for the union', is the best advert we have for breaking it.
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"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #585 on: November 05, 2020, 06:59:29 PM »
 The latest poll - the twelfth in a row - confirms the trend toward supporting regaining independence.
This is the longest run of sustained support for independence from multiple poll sources on record.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18850307.new-poll-finds-support-independence-uptick-scottish-labour/
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"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #586 on: November 16, 2020, 10:22:34 PM »
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Gordon

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #587 on: November 17, 2020, 07:06:11 AM »
Quote from: Nearly Sane on November 16, 2020, 10:22:34 PM
'Will of the people'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54965585

For those of us who support Scottish independence, Boris is the gift that keeps on giving.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2020, 08:41:31 AM by Gordon »
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Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #588 on: November 17, 2020, 08:39:47 AM »
Quote from: Gordon on November 17, 2020, 07:06:11 AM
For those of us who support the Scottish independence, Boris is the gift that keeps on giving.
   




For a fraction of a second, I almost felt Sorry for the Tory placeman in Scotland, Ross, as he tried to plaster over the chasm Johnson opened up last night.
As the self-titled 'minister for the Union', he's not exactly firing on tubular wotsits, is he?
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"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #589 on: November 17, 2020, 11:22:53 AM »
I see Robert Jenrick has been saying that it would be foolish to leave a union in the middle of a pandemic
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Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #590 on: November 17, 2020, 12:02:50 PM »
Quote from: Nearly Sane on November 17, 2020, 11:22:53 AM
I see Robert Jenrick has been saying that it would be foolish to leave a union in the middle of a pandemic
     



No arguments there.....
But by the time a second indyref is called, a vaccination programme will have done its' stuff, and we won't BE in the middle of a pandemic.
Johnson's words, however, will be a great rallying point.
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"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #591 on: November 17, 2020, 12:05:29 PM »
Quote from: Anchorman on November 17, 2020, 12:02:50 PM
     



No arguments there.....
But by the time a second indyref is called, a vaccination programme will have done its' stuff, and we won't BE in the middle of a pandemic.
Johnson's words, however, will be a great rallying point.
It was the irony of the remark that I was wondering about.
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Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #592 on: November 17, 2020, 12:09:42 PM »
Quote from: Nearly Sane on November 17, 2020, 12:05:29 PM
It was the irony of the remark that I was wondering about.


And presumably wise to leave the union afterwards?
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"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #593 on: November 17, 2020, 04:50:20 PM »
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Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #594 on: November 18, 2020, 08:29:11 AM »
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Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #595 on: November 18, 2020, 08:36:40 AM »
Quote from: Nearly Sane on November 18, 2020, 08:29:11 AM
And Marina Hyde


https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/17/boris-johnson-saboteur-prime-minister-scottish-devolution?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
   

The London tory nabobs are going to have to decide just how important the union is for them - and quickly.
If we go into the next Holyrood elections with Johnson in charge in London and a semi-deyatched Ross technically in charge here, there could be a Tory meltdown to match that of Labour,
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"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #596 on: December 02, 2020, 02:20:40 PM »
15th poll in a row shows the trend continues, and a rather improbable result for SNP, were the election tomorrow. https://news.stv.tv/politics/snp-set-for-majority-at-2021-scottish-parliament-election?top
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"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."

Nearly Sane

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #597 on: December 09, 2020, 12:35:17 PM »
This is interesting from Wee Ginger Dug


https://archive.vn/eJR2i
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Walt Zingmatilder

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #598 on: December 09, 2020, 02:14:31 PM »
Quote from: Anchorman on November 18, 2020, 08:36:40 AM
   

The London tory nabobs are going to have to decide just how important the union is for them - and quickly.
If we go into the next Holyrood elections with Johnson in charge in London and a semi-deyatched Ross technically in charge here, there could be a Tory meltdown to match that of Labour,
Do what you have to do. Defeat the Tories.
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Anchorman

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Re: 2nd Indy Referendum?
« Reply #599 on: December 11, 2020, 08:57:05 AM »
With the caviat that 'the National' is very much influenced by propaganda, this is, nevertheless a good read.
Nairn is a well respected thinker, author and lecturer.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18936542.union-will-within-five-years-one-scotlands-greatest-thinkers-says/?fbclid=IwAR21xPJHu0B1s1E1fKB_dr6u856qcyHaTmNY3f2arb1h1urMk_lEgBgn0B8
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"for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself."
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