This is the end of the EU...

[Jack Knave]

...as we know it.

Brexit, I reckon, will be the straw that breaks the EU's camel's back.

As we saw with Indyref1 and the referendum once people have to put their cards on the table and make their hands count i.e. polarize the situation, vote and affect the reality on the ground, then divisions and the like take place for real, and in some cases breakups. Whilst there are no real consequences, only debate and speculation, these tensions are endured and held in check in the background. Only when they come into the full light of day of being implemented do the sparks start to fly.

Well, with Brexit this type of situation will be forced onto many of the EU institutions to put their cards on the table about how to deal with the UK. Each having their own agendas and ideas about what is good for them and then having a vote on the deal. The EU is already in crisis with the Euro (youth unemployment etc.), immigration (Turkey), Trump's coolness towards the EU and the NATO issue he has raised, and their Eastern front with Russia where the East Europeans experiences of the Soviet Union have made them edgy and in need of our security and military know how. The general discontent of the EU in some quarters (the weakening of the political arena) and differing views about where the EU should progress to, or pull back to previous positions etc.

All this, not including Brexit, is causing riffs in Brussels and the EU to start to crack up. Those at the top know it. Though they see Brexit as being lower down on their list of importance and matters to focus on, it is in fact something that is going to pull them all together and make them see, in stark clarity, just how fractious the whole of the EU is and how their various opinions and ideas are pulling away from each other.

Tusk has said he wants the exit fee (60-50 billion) to be settled first before trade talks begin. That's because the EU is short of funds and our exit will make matters worse so they want to fix this unrealistic high sum before anything else. He also talks about the EU working as a united group in Brexit but this just to highlight the fact that this exactly what they are not.

Brexit will split them into many fragments and will precipitate the eventual breakup of the EU. It is unlikely, in my view, that we will even reach the end of the Brexit negotiations, but they will fizzle out and morph into some holding arrangement with the deflated EU state that could linger for years.

[ProfessorDavey]

...as we know it.

Brexit, I reckon, will be the straw that breaks the EU's camel's back.

As we saw with Indyref1 and the referendum once people have to put their cards on the table and make their hands count i.e. polarize the situation, vote and affect the reality on the ground, then divisions and the like take place for real, and in some cases breakups. Whilst there are no real consequences, only debate and speculation, these tensions are endured and held in check in the background. Only when they come into the full light of day of being implemented do the sparks start to fly.

Well, with Brexit this type of situation will be forced onto many of the EU institutions to put their cards on the table about how to deal with the UK. Each having their own agendas and ideas about what is good for them and then having a vote on the deal. The EU is already in crisis with the Euro (youth unemployment etc.), immigration (Turkey), Trump's coolness towards the EU and the NATO issue he has raised, and their Eastern front with Russia where the East Europeans experiences of the Soviet Union have made them edgy and in need of our security and military know how. The general discontent of the EU in some quarters (the weakening of the political arena) and differing views about where the EU should progress to, or pull back to previous positions etc.

All this, not including Brexit, is causing riffs in Brussels and the EU to start to crack up. Those at the top know it. Though they see Brexit as being lower down on their list of importance and matters to focus on, it is in fact something that is going to pull them all together and make them see, in stark clarity, just how fractious the whole of the EU is and how their various opinions and ideas are pulling away from each other.

Tusk has said he wants the exit fee (60-50 billion) to be settled first before trade talks begin. That's because the EU is short of funds and our exit will make matters worse so they want to fix this unrealistic high sum before anything else. He also talks about the EU working as a united group in Brexit but this just to highlight the fact that this exactly what they are not.

Brexit will split them into many fragments and will precipitate the eventual breakup of the EU. It is unlikely, in my view, that we will even reach the end of the Brexit negotiations, but they will fizzle out and morph into some holding arrangement with the deflated EU state that could linger for years.

Brexit is far more of an existential threat to the UK than it is to the EU.

[Jack Knave]

Brexit is far more of an existential threat to the UK than it is to the EU.

Not in the long term.

The difference being is that the separate parts of the UK are entities in their own right. The EU is a kind of an emergent property that once its component parts cease to be coalesced and bonded to each other it disappears. And this happens when those component parts start pulling in different directions and not act as a whole as they are starting to do now.

[jeremyp]

All this, not including Brexit, is causing riffs in Brussels and the EU to start to crack up. Those at the top know it. Though they see Brexit as being lower down on their list of importance and matters to focus on, it is in fact something that is going to pull them all together and make them see, in stark clarity, just how fractious the whole of the EU is and how their various opinions and ideas are pulling away from each other.

This by itself destroys the credibility of your argument. Lower down their list of importance? You have to be joking. Brexit is the single most important thing that the EU is dealing with at the moment and they know it.

You keep assigning motives to people you don't know but you really don't have any basis for your assertions. And yes, Brexit is pulling the EU together, but not in the way you hope..

You and your fellow Brexiteers have made us the enemy of Europe. We will lose. Big time.

[ekim]

You and your fellow Brexiteers have made us the enemy of Europe. We will lose. Big time.

Who do you think you are kidding Mr. JP
If you think we're on the run?
We are the boys who will stop your little game
We are the boys who will make you think again
Cause who do you think you are kidding Mr. JP
If you think old England's done?

[Gordon]

Who do you think you are kidding Mr. JP
If you think we're on the run?
We are the boys who will stop your little game
We are the boys who will make you think again
Cause who do you think you are kidding Mr. JP
If you think old England's done?

Looking at the voting patterns in referendum if would be fair to say that 'old England' has certainly 'done' us Scots over.

[jeremyp]

Looking at the voting patterns in referendum if would be fair to say that 'old England' has certainly 'done' us Scots over.

They have done everybody over including themselves.

[floo]

The Brexit vote has done us all over. We will all rue the day we leave the EU, even the Brexiteers, imo.

[ekim]

Looking at the voting patterns in referendum if would be fair to say that 'old England' has certainly 'done' us Scots over.

It would be fairer to say that the democratic process of the U.K. resulted in a majority of voters electing to leave the E.U.  I doubt whether racial prejudice against the Scots entered into it.

[Nearly Sane]

It would be fairer to say that the democratic process of the U.K. resulted in a majority of voters electing to leave the E.U.  I doubt whether racial prejudice against the Scots entered into it.

not what Gordon wrote.

[ekim]

not what Gordon wrote.

That's correct, because I wrote it.

[Nearly Sane]

That's correct, because I wrote it.

and you portrayed a strawman to reply to

[jeremyp]

That's correct, because I wrote it.

NS is saying that Gordon never said that racial prejudice was involved.

[ekim]

NS is saying that Gordon never said that racial prejudice was involved.

Good, then perhaps Gordon and I are tacitly in agreement.

[ekim]

and you portrayed a strawman to reply to

No I didn't.

[Nearly Sane]

No I didn't.

he's behind you!!!

[ekim]

he's behind you!!!

That's because you put him there.

[Nearly Sane]

That's because you put him there.

boooooooo!!!!!

[Gordon]

They have done everybody over including themselves.

True.

[Rhiannon]

They have done everybody over including themselves.

Yep.

I was talking to a friend from a northern town who voted leave because of what happened to his docks and the fishing industry. He hasn't taken on board that it's just going to get even worse, for everyone. There will be no alternative industries and not enough tax take to support those who cannot find work.

[Gordon]

It would be fairer to say that the democratic process of the U.K. resulted in a majority of voters electing to leave the E.U.  I doubt whether racial prejudice against the Scots entered into it.

I didn't mention racial prejudice: I referred to 'voting patterns' and it is an unfortunate fact that Brexit was carried by votes in England just as it is an unfortunate fact that the Tories are in government due to votes in England.

To add, I was picking up on the lyrics you quoted.

[jeremyp]

it is an unfortunate fact that Brexit was carried by votes in England

Brexit was carried by everybody who voted for Leave. That includes a sizeable number of people in Scotland.

[ekim]

I didn't mention racial prejudice: I referred to 'voting patterns' and it is an unfortunate fact that Brexit was carried by votes in England just as it is an unfortunate fact that the Tories are in government due to votes in England.

To add, I was picking up on the lyrics you quoted.

Yes, the lyrics were unfortunate and disrespectful of the rest of the UK.  The reason I posted it was to hint at an alternative response other than JP's 'We will lose. Big time.'  There were those during the war who thought that, after appeasement failed.  There were many others who united to overcome the odds and turned around what was then also an unfortunate fact.  Whether Brexit succeeds or fails, I doubt whether anybody really knows but I doubt whether declaring ourselves as losers before we start will help and neither will disunity through political infighting.

[Rhiannon]

Brexit was carried by everybody who voted for Leave. That includes a sizeable number of people in Scotland.

Perhaps we should ask for independence from older people or people without a degree.

[jeremyp]

Yes, the lyrics were unfortunate and disrespectful of the rest of the UK.  The reason I posted it was to hint at an alternative response other than JP's 'We will lose. Big time.'  There were those during the war who thought that, after appeasement failed.  There were many others who united to overcome the odds and turned around what was then also an unfortunate fact.  Whether Brexit succeeds or fails, I doubt whether anybody really knows but I doubt whether declaring ourselves as losers before we start will help and neither will disunity through political infighting.

In WW2 we were fighting an aggressive and fascist regime. In Brexit we are fighting a coalition of states that have decided that cooperation is better than competition and are trying to build a better Europe for everyone. I'm on their side.

By the way, we came out of WW2 bankrupt. We didn't win, we only lost less badly than we might have.