This is the end of the EU...

[wigginhall]

Perhaps we should ask for independence from older people or people without a degree.

I keep hearing the line that Brexit is government of old people, by old people, for old people.   Not completely true, of course, but I feel sorry for young people, who may not be able to live and work in Europe as easily.   My nephew has a Lithuanian girl-friend, and they have no idea what will happen.

[ekim]

In WW2 we were fighting an aggressive and fascist regime. In Brexit we are fighting a coalition of states that have decided that cooperation is better than competition and are trying to build a better Europe for everyone. I'm on their side.

By the way, we came out of WW2 bankrupt. We didn't win, we only lost less badly than we might have.

I understand your position.  There were people in our country during the war who were also on the other side.  If your side have decided that cooperation is better than competition then they should still be motivated by that noble sentiment when negotiating Brexit and there will be no need for any fighting.  There are no real winners in a war and there are many losers.  We had a huge financial debt which was finally paid back to USA by about the year 2000 I think.  This was another obstacle overcome by pulling together, not apart.

[Nearly Sane]

I understand your position.  There were people in our country during the war who were also on the other side.  If your side have decided that cooperation is better than competition then they should still be motivated by that noble sentiment when negotiating Brexit and there will be no need for any fighting.  There are no real winners in a war and there are many losers.  We had a huge financial debt which was finally paid back to USA by about the year 2000 I think.  This was another obstacle overcome by pulling together, not apart.

so which side, if any, do you think are like the Nazis? Because if you say neither, the analogy fails on it's most only salient connection.

[Jack Knave]

This by itself destroys the credibility of your argument. Lower down their list of importance? You have to be joking. Brexit is the single most important thing that the EU is dealing with at the moment and they know it.

You keep assigning motives to people you don't know but you really don't have any basis for your assertions. And yes, Brexit is pulling the EU together, but not in the way you hope..

You and your fellow Brexiteers have made us the enemy of Europe. We will lose. Big time.

Jeremy, may I suggest that you actually find out what's going on before you stick your foot in it. What is coming out of the EU from many quarters is that they have more important issues to deal with including Greece and the Euro, and immigration/terror threats and Turkey. But Brexit will focus minds and make them see how divided they are.

[Jack Knave]

In WW2 we were fighting an aggressive and fascist regime. In Brexit we are fighting a coalition of states that have decided that cooperation is better than competition and are trying to build a better Europe for everyone. I'm on their side.

By the way, we came out of WW2 bankrupt. We didn't win, we only lost less badly than we might have.

A better Europe? Pull the other one!!!! Tell Greece that. Tell the vast amount of youths who are unemployed.

One thing you lot fail to see is that when we leave the EU they will lose our membership fee, and if they are stupid (which they are) they could lose much of our trade with them which amounts in excess of theirs to us by £60 billion. They have massive costs to deal with with the Euro and Greece and are therefore short of funds. The rich members don't want to pay more and the net gainers won't want that reduced. They are in a mess and Brexit will highlight this fact, and their division in how to move the EU project on, because of that mess.

[ProfessorDavey]

One thing you lot fail to see is that when we leave the EU they will lose our membership fee

Which the EU is well aware of. But they will also reduce liabilities of supporting the UK through vast numbers of EU-funded projects. Don't forget too that unless we have the hardest of hard Brexits there is likely to continue to be a fee, linked to preferential access to the single market.

, and if they are stupid (which they are) they could lose much of our trade with them which amounts in excess of theirs to us by £60 billion.

Oh no the same old disingenuous (if I'm being charitable) clap-trap that they need us more than we need them. The actual amount is irrelevant, because the size of the rEU economy is massively greater than that of the UK. The key issue is the proportion of their economy/trade associated with rEU/UK trade. For us that is about 50% of our foreign trade. For the rEU member states it is less than 10% so it is much more significant for the UK than for the other EU member states.

And given that all member states must agree on a deal the country with the least trade will have just as much sway as the one with the most. I think I am right that Romania/UK trade is a tiny part of the Romanian economy so they will be barely affected by a poor trade deal but can block a decent one. They will, however, be really concerned about their citizens living in the UK, so Romania can readily block a trade deal unless it is linked to the rights of its citizens (just as they did for years over the EU/Canada trade deal).

[jakswan]

Just a note I think the EU will be fine so do not agree with JK.

I'm still expecting freedom of movement of labour/free trade deal in the interests of all parties.

Won't say more than that as I'll get the normal yaaboo sucks bile back.

[ekim]

so which side, if any, do you think are like the Nazis? Because if you say neither, the analogy fails on it's most only salient connection.

I think it is safe to say that all analogies will fail if pushed too far.  This analogy is about the merits of pulling together in the face of adversity rather than pulling apart or running away.  The same argument could have been made for pulling together as a united Europe in the face of possible disintegration.  Unless the decision to leave can be reversed then it is probably better to work together towards a solution optimistically with a 'Can Do' attitude rather than waving 'Prepare to meet thy doom' placards at every opportunity.  It is not about Nazis, it is about positive resolve and preparation in the face of adversity.  In those days the publicity and media fostered the appropriate morale building news, today it feeds upon negativity and so it will be more of an uphill struggle.

[ProfessorDavey]

Just a note I think the EU will be fine so do not agree with JK.

I agree - from an economic perspective the UK leaving is an irritation, but not a game changer. For the EU this issue is more about the politics and not doing anything which might be seen as giving a green light to other  countries that might be thinking of jumping ship. So no special deal for the UK, no allowance of substantially free trade with the single market without upholding the other freedoms.

I'm still expecting freedom of movement of labour/free trade deal in the interests of all parties.

I hope this will be the case, but I'm worried that May has boxed herself into a corner of hard Brexit to placate the anti-immigration minority rump. What won't happen, in my opinion, is that the UK gets a great free trade deal without accepting free movement. That said the free movement might only be for labour (i.e. need a job offer), rather than full free movement.

[Nearly Sane]

I think it is safe to say that all analogies will fail if pushed too far.  This analogy is about the merits of pulling together in the face of adversity rather than pulling apart or running away.  The same argument could have been made for pulling together as a united Europe in the face of possible disintegration.  Unless the decision to leave can be reversed then it is probably better to work together towards a solution optimistically with a 'Can Do' attitude rather than waving 'Prepare to meet thy doom' placards at every opportunity.  It is not about Nazis, it is about positive resolve and preparation in the face of adversity.  In those days the publicity and media fostered the appropriate morale building news, today it feeds upon negativity and so it will be more of an uphill struggle.

I didn't try and stretch it. Pulling together in adversity needs a very clear agreement by the vast majority of people of what the adversity is! That was the case with the war, it isn't the case here.  That people stretch analogies is true, but that people make bad analogies is also true.

[ProfessorDavey]

I didn't try and stretch it. Pulling together in adversity needs a very clear agreement by the vast majority of people of what the adversity is!

It is also difficult to argue for pulling together in adversity when half the population are the cause of that adversity (or rather half of the voting population). Usually we pull together in adversity when that adversity is clearly seen not to be our fault, as would be the case in WWII.

[Nearly Sane]

It is also difficult to argue for pulling together in adversity when half the population are the cause of that adversity (or rather half of the voting population). Usually we pull together in adversity when that adversity is clearly seen not to be our fault, as would be the case in WWII.

I think this is just using a bad analogy badly. Those voting for out don't see themselves as causing adversity but taking a tough decision in order to get to a better place. It underlines the issue with the analogy since it implicitly portrays the Leave side as somehow equivalent to the Nazis

[jakswan]

I agree - from an economic perspective the UK leaving is an irritation, but not a game changer. For the EU this issue is more about the politics and not doing anything which might be seen as giving a green light to other  countries that might be thinking of jumping ship. So no special deal for the UK, no allowance of substantially free trade with the single market without upholding the other freedoms.
I hope this will be the case, but I'm worried that May has boxed herself into a corner of hard Brexit to placate the anti-immigration minority rump. What won't happen, in my opinion, is that the UK gets a great free trade deal without accepting free movement. That said the free movement might only be for labour (i.e. need a job offer), rather than full free movement.

I think i agree with almost all of that.

[Jack Knave]

Which the EU is well aware of. But they will also reduce liabilities of supporting the UK through vast numbers of EU-funded projects. Don't forget too that unless we have the hardest of hard Brexits there is likely to continue to be a fee, linked to preferential access to the single market.

We are the second highest contributors - that's net!!!. The richer members don't won't to pay more (hard times etc.) and the net recipients don't want to take a cut (hard times etc.). The EU has debts, mainly the Euro Zone. Also a large institution like the EU is expensive to run.

Oh no the same old disingenuous (if I'm being charitable) clap-trap that they need us more than we need them. The actual amount is irrelevant, because the size of the rEU economy is massively greater than that of the UK. The key issue is the proportion of their economy/trade associated with rEU/UK trade. For us that is about 50% of our foreign trade. For the rEU member states it is less than 10% so it is much more significant for the UK than for the other EU member states.

And given that all member states must agree on a deal the country with the least trade will have just as much sway as the one with the most. I think I am right that Romania/UK trade is a tiny part of the Romanian economy so they will be barely affected by a poor trade deal but can block a decent one. They will, however, be really concerned about their citizens living in the UK, so Romania can readily block a trade deal unless it is linked to the rights of its citizens (just as they did for years over the EU/Canada trade deal).

It is more like 43% and as that is only about 30 - 35% of our total trade then that amounts to about 15% of the total UK output.

For the EU I've heard it is more like 17%. However, as it is more high end goods, that we buy, it will affect members like Germany and France and so it shouldn't be as a % of the EU but of the individual members and that makes it pretty high for them. So the likes of BMW etc. will be nagging Merkel, or whoever, to give us a tariff free deal.

As for members such as Romania the EU, i.e. Germany, have a way of forcing/bullying the lesser members to do as they want, especially as our trade is a reality now not some future affair as with Canada and there is 2 year time limit. So we have the upper here!!! But as point out there are too may fingers in the pie here hence my claim in this thread's OP.

[Jack Knave]

I agree - from an economic perspective the UK leaving is an irritation, but not a game changer. For the EU this issue is more about the politics and not doing anything which might be seen as giving a green light to other  countries that might be thinking of jumping ship. So no special deal for the UK, no allowance of substantially free trade with the single market without upholding the other freedoms.

I agree with you there. And that is why they are going to mess up. There primary motivator is politics first over economics, so that their ever closer union project takes preference over the economic imperative - look at the Euro, that was a political project not an economic one.

[Jack Knave]

It is also difficult to argue for pulling together in adversity when half the population are the cause of that adversity (or rather half of the voting population). Usually we pull together in adversity when that adversity is clearly seen not to be our fault, as would be the case in WWII.

From that then you have to agree with me that the EU is going to crack up as they do not think with one mind or from the same song sheet. They all have their particular agendas to promote.

[ProfessorDavey]

From that then you have to agree with me that the EU is going to crack up as they do not think with one mind or from the same song sheet. They all have their particular agendas to promote.

The same is true for any group of people coming together as a country or union of countries. What keeps them together is a notion that the benefits of being together outweighs the downsides of having to compromise individual views on the basis of the collective.

And we see this with the UK or any other individual country just as much as with the EU. You'll note that (as examples) both the UK and the USA are split almost perfectly down the middle on some major political issues (see EU referendum and USA presidential election).

It doesn't mean that they are about to fall apart - sure there are clear existential threats to the UK currently, but I don't see these for either the USA nor the EU.

[floo]

Without the EU to back it up I think Britain will become increasingly insignificant.

[ProfessorDavey]

It is more like 43% and as that is only about 30 - 35% of our total trade then that amounts to about 15% of the total UK output.

44% of our exports and 53% of our imports are with other EU member states - hence my 'about 50%' statement.

For the EU I've heard it is more like 17%.

Nope - you are comparing apples and pears - the actual figure of foreign trade from other EU member states as a proportion of their total foreign trade (i.e. the same comparison) is 8%.

It is pretty easy to see how you can cope with a bit of a hit on 8% of your trade, given that 92% is unaffected. Much harder to see how you can cope with a bit of a hit on touching 50% of your trade.

[Harrowby Hall]

Can I try and put it another way?

Of the total EU export trade, 8% is with the UK.  This is 1/12 of the total. Therefore 11/12 goes elsewhere. The UK is a small part of the total. To lose this would be unfortunate but not critical because it should not be too difficult to make it up elsewhere.

Of UK export trade 44%is with the EU. This is almost half. There is no other export market or group of markets anywhere in the world that even approaches this. Its loss would be catastrophic. The UK (or rUK) would be reduced to the status of (say) Argentina.

[jeremyp]

I understand your position.  There were people in our country during the war who were also on the other side.

No, you do not get to say that. The EU is not a fascist regime and I am not on the side of the Nazis. Please quit with your false analogy.

[jeremyp]

Jeremy, may I suggest that you actually find out what's going on before you stick your foot in it.

I know what's going on, it's you that is uninformed.

[jeremyp]

I'm still expecting freedom of movement of labour/free trade deal in the interests of all parties.

The trouble with that is that free movement of labour is a red line to many of the people who voted Brexit. If we do a deal with free movement of labour in it, I think Theresa May will be finished.

[jeremyp]

This analogy is about the merits of pulling together in the face of adversity rather than pulling apart or running away.

No it wasn't, it was about painting the Remainers in the same light as Nazi sympathisers.

Who is running away and pulling apart? The UK is.

[wigginhall]

I see that May is being conciliatory over Gibraltar, so I reckon she can see a way forward.   EU regulations are incorporated into British law, so she can boast that all laws are British, while in fact, companies are shadowing  EU regs, (they have no choice).   Immigration will be allowed in certain sectors, and all the bluffs and threats (Gibraltar, cooperation over security, the EU bill,  EU citizens), will be smoothed over.  Her big problem might be the headbangers, but she will hope to seduce them with lots of rhetoric about glorious global Britain, and anyway, many of them are brain-dead.  But remember Murphy's law.