This is the end of the EU...

[Walt Zingmatilder]

I see that May is being conciliatory over Gibraltar, so I reckon she can see a way forward.   EU regulations are incorporated into British law, so she can boast that all laws are British, while in fact, companies are shadowing  EU regs, (they have no choice).   Immigration will be allowed in certain sectors, and all the bluffs and threats (Gibraltar, cooperation over security, the EU bill,  EU citizens), will be smoothed over.  Her big problem might be the headbangers, but she will hope to seduce them with lots of rhetoric about glorious global Britain, and anyway, many of them are brain-dead.  But remember Murphy's law.

The headbangers time has to be over. Where are they going to go? what are they going to do?

[wigginhall]

The headbangers time has to be over. Where are they going to go? what are they going to do?

May will hope to seduce them and placate them with lots of fiery rhetoric about red, white and blue Brexit.  She also hopes to fool them, by doing a deal with the EU.   But she needs them for the next election - after all, isn't that her raison d'etre?

One advantage for her is that they tend to be stupid and ignorant - they think that a third country is something in the World Cup.  But she is also fearful of Dacre and Murdoch.   There could be a ferocious revenge if they suspect that May is going all soft Brexit.  These are the Blue Passport and Invade Spain boys. 

[Rhiannon]

These are the Blue Passport and Invade Spain boys.

Who are only playing to the whims of their audience.

[Jack Knave]

The same is true for any group of people coming together as a country or union of countries. What keeps them together is a notion that the benefits of being together outweighs the downsides of having to compromise individual views on the basis of the collective.

And we see this with the UK or any other individual country just as much as with the EU. You'll note that (as examples) both the UK and the USA are split almost perfectly down the middle on some major political issues (see EU referendum and USA presidential election).

It doesn't mean that they are about to fall apart - sure there are clear existential threats to the UK currently, but I don't see these for either the USA nor the EU.

And that is true of Greece, is it, and many of the southern med members? I don't think so.
Can they leave? No because if they do the EU will give them a kicking, which sums up the EU's nasty attitude.

And then the east Europeans are not too happy with this liberal attitude of Merkel's.

The problem is is that the EU is too big and there are too many dissenting voices all pulling in different directions.

[Jack Knave]

44% of our exports and 53% of our imports are with other EU member states - hence my 'about 50%' statement.
 Nope - you are comparing apples and pears - the actual figure of foreign trade from other EU member states as a proportion of their total foreign trade (i.e. the same comparison) is 8%.

It is pretty easy to see how you can cope with a bit of a hit on 8% of your trade, given that 92% is unaffected. Much harder to see how you can cope with a bit of a hit on touching 50% of your trade.

But that has to be looked in the round of the total trade internally and externally, and costs. Also, we can now go and do bespoke deals with others around the world.

[ProfessorDavey]

But that has to be looked in the round of the total trade internally and externally, and costs. Also, we can now go and do bespoke deals with others around the world.

Problem is that world trade is already hugely competitive, and being in the EU largely means we have been able to benefit from massively advantageous deals as everyone wants to trade with the single largest trading block on the planet.

So we have undoubtedly weakened our trading position with the EU which represents approx. 50% of our foreign trade, and it is, frankly, wishful thinking that on our own we will be able to broker better deals than we could within the EU.

And the killer issue is that once we aren't part of the EU will will lose all the trade deals already in place involving the EU - and don't forget the EU has more and better trade deals with the rest of the world than any other country (or group of countries) on the planet - and we are throwing that away.

[ProfessorDavey]

And that is true of Greece, is it, and many of the southern med members? I don't think so.

Do you really think that Greece, or Spain, or Portugal are in a worse position now than before they joined the EU. If you do, you really need to get your head examined.

Sure all are going through challenging economic times - just as, I should point out, is the UK. But all are economically wealthy beyond recognition compared to their pre-EU state, where they were all seen as quasi-third world economies. Further, of course, all are stable democracies, with strong protection of human rights, whilst pre to joining the EU they were all dictatorships.

And the same goes for the former communist states of eastern europe - their economies and their democratic credibility have improved beyond recognition due to their desire to join the EU, and the obligations that EU membership requires.

[Jack Knave]

Problem is that world trade is already hugely competitive, and being in the EU largely means we have been able to benefit from massively advantageous deals as everyone wants to trade with the single largest trading block on the planet.

So we have undoubtedly weakened our trading position with the EU which represents approx. 50% of our foreign trade, and it is, frankly, wishful thinking that on our own we will be able to broker better deals than we could within the EU.

And the killer issue is that once we aren't part of the EU will will lose all the trade deals already in place involving the EU - and don't forget the EU has more and better trade deals with the rest of the world than any other country (or group of countries) on the planet - and we are throwing that away.

We have countries queuing up to do a deal with us and most of the EU members are too poor, relatively, to be of any real use for the rest of the rich world. The EU may be 500 million people but half of those are either dirt shovellers or unemployed - more of a cost burden than an asset. Not exactly big spenders!!! And the Germans who are the riches in the EU are not big buyers but instead hoard their cast. Add to this that the EU is dying. Anyway, those EU trade deals to the outside world were fashioned more for the German and French markets and were a poor fit for ours.

We haven't weaken anything as our buying clout goes on high end goods which is only from a few EU members, so that that 8% of yours shouldn't be a function of the EU market but the countries we buy from hence my 17% - which is on a par with our trade with them. So if we lose the bigger, richer countries of the EU lose on a similar scale - and the BMW's of this world will nag their fellow German leaders to give us a good deal.

I grant you in the short term it will be bumpy but in the long term we will win out and the EU will, as I have said, gradually die. And as I said above those EU trade deals were a poor fit for us. The EU model is yesterdays news; a 20th century artefact.

[jeremyp]

But that has to be looked in the round of the total trade internally and externally, and costs. Also, we can now go and do bespoke deals with others around the world.

The total of trade internally and externally is not 44%. When we leave the EU we will also leave the EFTA and we will also lose the benefit any trade deals the EU has already done. All told, about 60% of our trade will have to be done on less favourable terms than it is now.

Well done Brexiteers.

[jeremyp]

We have countries queuing up to do a deal with us

Is it more countries than we are about to lose by leaving the EU?

and most of the EU members are too poor, relatively, to be of any real use for the rest of the rich world.

On the other hand the EU contains several of the World's largest economies.

The EU may be 500 million people but half of those are either dirt shovellers or unemployed - more of a cost burden than an asset.

But the EU is changing that. The rich economies like ours help the poor economies out. As they get more prosperous, it benefits the rich economies.

Add to this that the EU is dying.

This is just a mantra you keep telling yourself to convince yourself that we haven't just made a terrible mistake. Well we have.

Never mind the economy and trade, we have made enemies of our nearest neighbours. Think on that. Our former friends are our enemies now.

[Jack Knave]

Do you really think that Greece, or Spain, or Portugal are in a worse position now than before they joined the EU. If you do, you really need to get your head examined.

Sure all are going through challenging economic times - just as, I should point out, is the UK. But all are economically wealthy beyond recognition compared to their pre-EU state, where they were all seen as quasi-third world economies. Further, of course, all are stable democracies, with strong protection of human rights, whilst pre to joining the EU they were all dictatorships.

And the same goes for the former communist states of eastern europe - their economies and their democratic credibility have improved beyond recognition due to their desire to join the EU, and the obligations that EU membership requires.

What fucking planet are you living on??

Greece is a corpse!!! Their debt to GDP is something like 280%. The accepted alarm bells for this measure is 90%. The EU (Germans) are going to up this by imposing more bailouts, for a country which is bankrupt and can never, NEVER, pay off their debts. The last bailout sum (I think 65 billion) went onto Greece's public debt books and straight into the bank's hands - not a penny went to Greece. It is plainly a mechanism to keep bailing out the banks and keep those fuckheads afloat. Their assets are being privatized to the highest bidder where upon what they get for them goes straight to the banks. So the banks fund the buyouts of the assets and then gets the money back - in effect getting the assets for free. Last year all companies had to pay their upcoming tax bill a year in advance - this is just one measure that is screwing the country in its coffin. You talk of human rights, not in Greece they are losing their rights - at work etc. - and many are killing themselves because it has reached such a terrible level. When it has be sucked dry it will be spat out by the EU dragon and left to rot. Pretty much the way the Jews were treated in the concentration camps - flog'em until they drop. This is the wonderful utopian dream of the EU's ever closer union project - total shit, like the USSR.

And in all this Germany has profited from being in the Euro which in effect kept its goods cheap and they are the ones wielding the axe that is chopping Greece to bits. The fourth Reich lives.

And this will be the fate of Spain, Portugal etc., given time.

As for the Eastern Europeans they just jumped up out of a very hot fire into a frying pan heated by that same ideological, utopian flame of total central control. They are starting to push back now now that they see that Brussels is telling them what to do in almost all things as did Moscow did.

Do your fucking homework Davey!!!

[Jack Knave]

The total of trade internally and externally is not 44%. When we leave the EU we will also leave the EFTA and we will also lose the benefit any trade deals the EU has already done. All told, about 60% of our trade will have to be done on less favourable terms than it is now.

Well done Brexiteers.

You talk as though that is a fact when it is not, it is just you blowing off!!!

[Jack Knave]

Is it more countries than we are about to lose by leaving the EU?
On the other hand the EU contains several of the World's largest economies.
But the EU is changing that. The rich economies like ours help the poor economies out. As they get more prosperous, it benefits the rich economies.

This is just a mantra you keep telling yourself to convince yourself that we haven't just made a terrible mistake. Well we have.

Never mind the economy and trade, we have made enemies of our nearest neighbours. Think on that. Our former friends are our enemies now.

We can keep the trading arrangement with those countries that have a trade deal with the EU and just adjust them to be congenial for us and them; cutting out all the special arrangement that individual members have asked for and if necessary adding something to suit to replace some.

I've covered most of this post with Davey's posts.

[jeremyp]

You talk as though that is a fact when it is not, it is just you blowing off!!!

No it is a fact.

[jeremyp]

We can keep the trading arrangement with those countries that have a trade deal with the EU

How?

and just adjust them to be congenial for us and them;

And it will take years. The average time to do a trade deal is seven years.

I've covered most of this post with Davey's posts.

How do you feel about all our former friends who are now our enemies?

[Jack Knave]

How?

By talking to them. 

And it will take years. The average time to do a trade deal is seven years.

That is with the EU. When it is bilaterally between two countries it can be lass than two years; even shorter.

How do you feel about all our former friends who are now our enemies?

I think friends is rather a strong word. Sometimes tough love is the only way to get the right outcome.

[ProfessorDavey]

Greece is a corpse!!!

Was a military dictatorship before joining the EU - it is now a stable democracy.

And this will be the fate of Spain, Portugal etc., given time.

Were Fascist dictatorships before joining the EU - are now a stable democracies.

As for the Eastern Europeans ...

Were communist dictatorships before joining the EU - are now a stable democracies.

Do your fucking homework Davey!!!

I have - sadly you haven't. Without doubt, even taking into account current economic challenges, the economic state of Greece, Spain, Portugal and the Eastern European ex-communist countries are massively better now than they were before joining the EU. But there is an additional factors, more important still - that joining the EU has steered them from autocratic dictatorships that routinely abused the human rights of their own people, to stable democracies that uphold human rights.

I suggest you do your homework and learn a little history.

[ProfessorDavey]

Their debt to GDP is something like 280%.

Yup pretty horrific, but this issue isn't the level of debt but the ability and support to pay this down, and in that case Greece has plenty of support.

But is debt per GDP at those levels necessarily means that a country is doomed then I trust you recognise that the UK doesn't exist - because of course the UK has had debt per GDP at those levels twice in relatively recent historic times - and guess what those were preludes to what we often see as the most golden eras for the UK, namely the Victorian period and the 1960s.

Do your fucking homework Davey!!!

Again I think it is you that needs to do your homework and learn a little history.

[Jack Knave]

Was a military dictatorship before joining the EU - it is now a stable democracy.
Were Fascist dictatorships before joining the EU - are now a stable democracies.
Were communist dictatorships before joining the EU - are now a stable democracies.
I have - sadly you haven't. Without doubt, even taking into account current economic challenges, the economic state of Greece, Spain, Portugal and the Eastern European ex-communist countries are massively better now than they were before joining the EU. But there is an additional factors, more important still - that joining the EU has steered them from autocratic dictatorships that routinely abused the human rights of their own people, to stable democracies that uphold human rights.

I suggest you do your homework and learn a little history.

You have an odd idea of the meaning of the word stable.

The EU is an autocratic dictatorship. It is modelled on the USSR, but a slow clandestine walk to it to trap the people in it by deceitful manipulation and soft force.

[jeremyp]

By talking to them.

I admire your optimism.

That is with the EU. When it is bilaterally between two countries it can be lass than two years; even shorter.

The figure I gave is the average for negotiating trade deals globally. Some take two years, some take much longer. On average it takes seven.

I think friends is rather a strong word. Sometimes tough love is the only way to get the right outcome.

There's nothing loving about what we have done to them. They were with us, now they are against us. This is almost the worst thing about the whole Brexit issue. We have destroyed good relationships with other nations. Why would anybody trust us when we cut and run and the first sign of difficulty. We now look to people elsewhere like a nation of small minded cowards.

[jeremyp]

It is modelled on the USSR,

How do you expect to keep your credibility with such lies?

[Harrowby Hall]

The EU is an autocratic dictatorship. It is modelled on the USSR ...

How interesting.

I have heard this stated before. Could you please outline the precise way in which this is the case - if possible giving examples from both instances?

[Ricky Spanish]

The EU is an autocratic dictatorship. It is modelled on the USSR.

Really?

The EU consists of: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, UK.

Out of all on this list, only one is in the throws of trying to achieve an autocratic government.

I think you are confusing the EU with Eurovision!!

[Jack Knave]

I admire your optimism.

I don't admire your blindness.

The figure I gave is the average for negotiating trade deals globally. Some take two years, some take much longer. On average it takes seven.

That is for large institutions like the EU. For country to country it is normally less than 2 years.

There's nothing loving about what we have done to them. They were with us, now they are against us. This is almost the worst thing about the whole Brexit issue. We have destroyed good relationships with other nations. Why would anybody trust us when we cut and run and the first sign of difficulty. We now look to people elsewhere like a nation of small minded cowards.

If that is their attitude, the fragility of their so called friendship, then good riddens to them. Our tough love is to show them that their ideology is wrong; especially to the people of Europe.

[Jack Knave]

How do you expect to keep your credibility with such lies?

What lies?