UK General Election 2017

[jeremyp]

What's the likelihood of it having an effect in your constituency?

Tories had a 13% majority last time out. Lib Dems came fourth, so probably very little except I live in an urban area that probably voted majority to Remain so there is a smidgeon of hope.

[Nearly Sane]

There's another consideration. Things are probably going to be a bit rough for the government over the next two years, so if you have a general election now, you have time to turn it around in the ensuing three years.

and no matter what happens in Scotland, if they win well in UK they can claim a newer mandate. The Lib Dems will be pleased I suspect.

[Gordon]

On listening to her announcement again her 'the country is coming together' assertion is simply unbelievable.

[Robbie]

With Corbyn at the helm of Labour, I doubt they have a cat's chance in hell of winning the election.

Unfortunately I agree with you floo.

[Aruntraveller]

This is a huge gamble.

If it turns into a referendum on the referendum, which it has every possibility of doing, the vote could be much more unpredictable than it appears in the polls currently.

[Nearly Sane]

Hurrah

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/more-politics-how-absolutely-fking-fantastic-says-britain-20170418126187

[Nearly Sane]

I note that May was complaining that other parties were pursuing their own policies and opposing things. How shocking in a parliamentary democracy!

[Sriram]

Well..isn't the timing rather odd? She seems to think that the election will stabilize the Brexit process...and get the force of the people behind it.  Maybe it will do the opposite. 

[Robbie]

One would hope so sririam but I fear, because of Corbyn's unfortunate unpopularity as Labour leader, that May will be returned victorious and we'll be in status quo.

[Harrowby Hall]

May is counting on First Past The Post to rescue/protect her. Presumably she calculates that UKIP (if it chooses to take part) will make a very larger hole in the tribal Labour vote than it will in the lower middle class Conservative vote.

Since this will be a single issue election it may be reasonable to assume that a significant proportion of the electorate may not vote on traditional party lines.

[Nearly Sane]

The argument for the SNP to campaign on UDI.


https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2017/04/westminster-election-indyref2/

[Bubbles]

On listening to her announcement again her 'the country is coming together' assertion is simply unbelievable.

Yes, given she told Nicola Sturgeon she couldn't have an independance  vote as it was " the wrong time."

How come it's suddenly " the right time" to rush to hold this election in June? Polititicians live on another planet.

Say one thing, do the opposite.

I thought the idea was the country needed stability?

 

None of it encourages " the country coming together" imo.

It just makes me feel none of them know what they are doing.

I don't want to vote for any of them!  😝

[jakswan]

I seem to recall predicting this, my winnings on Betfair confirm.

Bold move could easily end in another coalition and LibDems will get Brexit vote 2 as part of any deal.

Labour look as if they will be officially dead after this.

[floo]

One thing that is certain about politics these days is uncertainty. Most of us thought Brexit was unlikely, and that Trump wouldn't win the US election, unfortunately those who made those predictions got it wrong.

[Nearly Sane]

And farewell Tom Blenkinsop.



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-mp-general-election-tom-blenkinsop-not-stand-theresa-may-middlesborough-south-a7688501.html

[floo]

And farewell Tom Blenkinsop.



http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-mp-general-election-tom-blenkinsop-not-stand-theresa-may-middlesborough-south-a7688501.html

I wonder how many other Labour MPs will feel the same way?

[Sriram]

One would hope so sririam but I fear, because of Corbyn's unfortunate unpopularity as Labour leader, that May will be returned victorious and we'll be in status quo.

But surely you can't have the Brexit process getting diluted at this stage when it has been filed with the EU etc. That would be disastrous!

Why is she taking a chance?

[floo]

But surely you can't have the Brexit process getting diluted at this stage when it has been filed with the EU etc. That would be disastrous!

Why is she taking a chance?

Could it be in her heart of hearts May has doubts about it?

[ProfessorDavey]

But surely you can't have the Brexit process getting diluted at this stage when it has been filed with the EU etc. That would be disastrous!

Why is she taking a chance?

We haven't even started the negotiation, so how 'diluted' brexit will be (presumably meaning soft or hard) it completely up for grabs. What would be disastrous would be for the UK to hurtle headlong into a massively damaging hard brexit. Presumably one of the points about this election is to attempt to gain a mandate for a particular flavour of brexit or even (whisper it quietly) no brexit, were the result to provide a government elected on a mandate or reversing brexit.

Personally I don't think a general election, which is fought on all sorts of issues, although presumably brexit will be the key one here, is the right way to approach this. Much better to have a second referendum on the agreed terms of a brexit deal. But I guess that will be a campaigning position for some parties in the upcoming election.

[ProfessorDavey]

Could it be in her heart of hearts May has doubts about it?

I think you may be right. I suspect that May is hoping that the election gives her the authority to go for a soft brexit.

[Jack Knave]

Fucking Hell!!! It never rains but it pours.

I predicted one in 2018. This has surprised me but it makes sense. Do it before the negotiations get going and whilst France, Germany etc. have theirs, and try and gain a good majority to back up her position against the EU.

[Walt Zingmatilder]

There's a spooky glow in the sky over Mordor way.

[ProfessorDavey]

Fucking Hell!!! It never rains but it pours.

I predicted one in 2018. This has surprised me but it makes sense. Do it before the negotiations get going and whilst France, Germany etc. have theirs, and try and gain a good majority to back up her position against the EU.

Which means she will need to be clear what her position is.

And here's the danger for May - she is currently riding on a wave of 'all-things-to-all-people' brexit. That isn't going to wash in a general election campaign, particularly one that she has specifically called. She runs the risk of support pealing away whichever approach she adopts.

And of course her position must be credible or again it won't wash. My gut feeling here is that she will actually put forward a more pragmatic and consensual proposal - in other words a pretty soft brexit, with a focus on protecting the economy. And in doing so I think she will win pretty comfortably. If she goes all hard brexit, extremism, she will suffer, simply because there aren't enough people on that extreme end.

[jeremyp]

I seem to recall predicting this, my winnings on Betfair confirm.

Bold move could easily end in another coalition and LibDems will get Brexit vote 2 as part of any deal.

I do not share your optimism. I think the Conservatives will win with an increased majority.

Labour look as if they will be officially dead after this.

The problem with Labour is that all their best people (as in with the best qualifications to run as a credible candidate for PM) were associated with Blair and Brown and thus culled after the 2010 general election. Then all the second best people went after the Milliband fiasco in 2015 (was it really only two years ago?). Then the dregs were put out of their misery during the leadership challenge. Corbyn is useless and his team is practically the Labour D team. 

Interestingly, they are still more competent than the UKIP leadership.

[Jack Knave]

Increases the chance of a soft(er) Brexit though.

How?